Jeremy Rivas — OGILVIE

Jeremy RivasSS Springfield Cardinals

Age 23 R/R 6'0" / 200 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 ROS PROJECTION247 act + 164 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†49

AVG/OBP/SLG.188 / .263 / .256

PA164

HR2

SB7

K%30

BB%8

BABIP266

ISO67

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 30 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT30

scouting grade only

POWER40

scouting grade only

EYE45

scouting grade only

SPEED55

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.9M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$4M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	18	ROK	FCL Cardinals	—	200	183	39	5	1	0	9	46	6	6	5	213	273	251	524	38	281	23	4	234	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	18	ROK	FCL Cardinals	—	200	177	48	7	1	0	15	32	6	6	5	271	348	322	671	51	327	16	8	308	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	A	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	471	436	86	12	1	2	26	158	4	8	6	197	249	243	492	46	300	34	6	221	27	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	A	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	471	425	104	16	1	2	37	104	4	8	6	245	311	301	612	56	316	22	8	280	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A+	2 teams	—	537	490	75	16	0	2	33	176	5	25	6	153	214	198	412	45	230	33	6	190	4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A+	2 teams	—	537	471	100	19	1	4	52	123	5	25	6	212	297	282	580	70	274	23	10	266	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	AA	2 teams	—	534	478	109	9	1	2	37	144	8	31	10	228	294	264	558	36	318	27	7	250	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	AA	2 teams	—	534	462	123	11	1	5	53	102	8	31	10	266	352	327	679	61	328	19	10	309	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	AA	2 teams	—	518	470	83	17	1	7	35	188	11	21	9	177	250	262	512	85	274	36	7	232	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	AA	2 teams	—	518	455	93	19	1	10	49	141	11	21	9	204	297	316	613	112	271	27	9	282	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	23	AA	STL	—	247	218	45	6	0	5	22	74	4	14	1	206	291	303	594	96	282	30	9	270	65	-10	+2	+0	+3	+7	0.2
YTD	23	AA	STL	—	247	208	50	7	0	6	32	59	4	14	1	240	352	361	713	120	301	24	13	325	107	+2	+2	+0	+3	+7	1.4
ROS	23	AA	STL	2%	164	148	28	4	0	2	13	50	2	7	1	188	263	256	518	67	273	30	8	250	49	-9	+1	+0	+2	+5	-0.2
ROS	23	MLB	STL	2%	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0						272	33	0	239	41	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
FULL	23	AA	STL	—	250	221	45	6	0	5	22	75	4	14	1	204	287	299	586	95	278	30	9	269	64	-10	+2	+0	+3	+7	0.2
TOT	23	AA	STL	—	411	366	73	10	0	7	35	124	6	21	2	199	280	284	563	85	275	30	9	262	59	-19	+3	+0	+4	+12	0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	24	MLB	STL	31%	534	479	97	15	1	9	42	156	8	20	4	203	278	294	572	92	276	29	8	262	59	-25	+2	+0	+6	+15	-0.2
2028	25	MLB	STL	45%	564	506	105	17	1	11	45	161	8	21	5	208	283	310	593	103	277	29	8	270	65	-23	+2	+0	+6	+16	0.2
2029	26	MLB	STL	51%	581	521	109	18	1	12	47	164	8	22	5	209	285	317	601	107	278	28	8	274	68	-21	+2	+0	+6	+16	0.4
2030	27	MLB	STL	53%	587	526	110	18	1	12	48	166	8	22	5	209	285	316	601	106	278	28	8	275	69	-21	+2	+0	+6	+17	0.5
2031	28	MLB	STL	53%	586	524	110	18	1	12	49	166	8	21	5	210	287	317	604	107	278	28	8	274	68	-21	+2	-1	+6	+17	0.3
2027	24	MLB	STL	31%	166	150	30	5	0	3	13	49	2	6	1	200	273	293	566	93	276	30	8	252	51	-9	+1	+0	+2	+5	-0.2
2028	25	MLB	STL	45%	251	225	47	7	1	5	20	72	4	9	2	209	285	316	601	107	277	29	8	259	57	-12	+1	+0	+3	+7	-0.2
2029	26	MLB	STL	51%	296	266	56	9	1	6	24	84	4	11	2	211	286	320	605	109	278	28	8	263	60	-13	+1	+0	+3	+8	-0.1
2030	27	MLB	STL	53%	308	276	58	9	1	6	25	87	4	12	3	210	285	315	600	105	278	28	8	265	61	-14	+1	+0	+3	+9	-0.0
2031	28	MLB	STL	53%	313	280	58	9	1	6	26	89	4	11	2	207	284	311	595	104	278	28	8	264	60	-14	+1	-0	+3	+9	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	1337	1200	249	39	4	26	108	382	18	49	10	207	283	312	594	104	279	29	8	262	58	-63	+6	-0	+14	+38	-0.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	583	122	19	2	13	53	186	9	24	5	209	285	316	601	106	282	29	8	262	58	-31	+3	-0	+7	+18	-0.3
Career	—			—	5276	4761	951	149	9	71	384	1575	76	204	61	200	270	280	550	80	279	30	7	250	50	-299	+16	-1	+57	+150	-7.9
/ 162G	—			—	650	587	117	18	1	9	47	194	9	25	8	199	269	279	548	80	278	30	7	250	50	-37	+2	-0	+7	+18	-1.0

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	18	ROK	FCL Cardinals	—	200	177	48	7	1	0	15	32	6	6	5	271	348	322	671	51	327	16	8	308	94	-1	-1	—	—	+6	0.4
2022	19	A	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	471	425	104	16	1	2	37	104	4	8	6	245	311	301	612	56	316	22	8	280	73	-15	-1	—	—	+13	-0.2
2023	20	A+	Peoria Chiefs	—	453	397	83	18	0	3	45	101	4	22	5	209	296	277	573	68	268	22	10	264	61	-20	+2	—	—	+13	-0.5
2023	20	INTL	Scottsdale Scorpions	—	84	74	17	1	1	1	7	22	1	3	1	230	305	311	616	81	308	26	8	277	70	-3	+0	—	—	+2	-0.0
2024	21	AA	Springfield Cardinals	—	459	395	104	8	1	3	46	85	8	27	10	263	352	311	663	48	325	19	10	304	91	-5	+1	—	—	+13	1.0
2024	21	INTL	Bravos de Margarita	—	75	67	19	3	0	2	7	17	0	4	0	284	351	418	769	134	347	23	9	341	119	+2	+1	—	—	+2	0.5
2025	22	AA	Springfield Cardinals	—	487	427	87	17	1	10	48	135	10	21	8	204	298	319	617	115	272	28	10	284	76	-13	+1	—	—	+14	0.2
2025	22	INTL	Bravos de Margarita	—	31	28	6	2	0	0	1	6	1	0	1	214	267	286	552	71	261	19	3	246	46	-2	-0	—	—	+1	-0.1

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	7	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
	/162	664	15	8	238	305	374	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#2Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	8	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
	/162	664	20	13	221	297	378	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#3Leonys Martinlast yr '19 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,784 PA	8	2,784	58	126	243	301	366	+10	+53	10.7	10.8
	/162	664	14	30	243	301	366	+2.4	+12.6	2.6	pk7: 11
#4Everth Cabreralast yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,059 PA	6	2,059	12	136	247	316	328	+22	-1	5.1	5.1
	/162	664	4	44	247	316	328	+7.1	-0.5	1.6	pk7: 5
#5J.P. Arencibialast yr '15 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,650 PA	5	1,650	78	2	213	260	414	+29	-4	4.2	4.2
	/162	664	31	1	213	260	414	+11.9	-1.7	1.7	pk7: 4
#6Chris Getzlast yr '13 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,539 PA	5	1,539	3	86	251	310	309	+5	+12	2.7	2.7
#6Chris Getzlast yr '13 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,539 PA	/162	664	1	37	251	310	309	+2.4	+5.1	1.2	pk7: 3
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	2	1,340	27	50	209	282	314	+14	+6	0.7	0.7
	/162	664	13	25	209	282	314	+7.1	+3.0	0.3	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jeremy Rivas (OGILVIE)	23	30	40	55	45	199/280/284	85	275	7	21	30%	9%	59	+0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Claudio Finol 2023 · AA	23	38	37→40	50→45	40	187/240/263	77	259	4	8	29%	5%	35	-2.8	204/263/296	92	292	8	10	31%	7%	53	-1.5	181/246/258	77	260	9	12	32%	7%	35	-0.7
✕Steven Baron 2014 · A	23	34	40→45	53→50	34	176/209/269	93	256	6	9	34%	4%	22	-3.7	215/263/298	83	301	5	9	28%	6%	53	-1.5	240/300/311	71	326	5	6	26%	7%	68	-0.2
✕Nick Meyer 2021 · A	24	35	36→40	52→50	40	172/231/233	61	252	4	15	32%	6%	24	-3.6	212/280/299	87	278	9	14	25%	8%	62	-0.9	207/281/290	83	267	10	16	25%	8%	57	-0.6
✕Dylan Neuse 2023 · A	24	36	40	49→50	44	178/256/260	82	272	8	14	35%	9%	42	-2.3	211/287/303	92	304	7	12	30%	9%	66	-0.6	219/303/313	94	309	5	13	28%	10%	75	-0.0
✕Jordyn Adams 2023 · AA	23	40	38→45	58→60	36	190/243/268	78	298	5	24	36%	6%	37	-2.6	197/256/307	110	301	11	29	36%	7%	53	-1.5	186/248/297	110	286	13	26	38%	7%	45	-1.1
✕Corey Joyce 2022 · AA	23	40	39→45	54→50	39	192/262/274	82	303	8	14	37%	7%	48	-1.9	206/305/332	126	296	13	13	32%	10%	82	+0.5	214/316/327	113	306	11	14	30%	10%	82	+0.3
✕Max George 2019 · A	23	33→36	41→45	53→55	43	170/253/270	99	234	9	20	30%	7%	44	-2.1	183/267/288	105	279	10	20	36%	8%	55	-1.4	148/255/300	152	246	20	20	45%	10%	51	-0.7
✕Grae Kessinger 2022 · AA	24	37→28	42→45	48→50	40	187/248/281	94	262	11	15	32%	6%	43	-2.2	194/265/312	118	265	14	14	31%	8%	59	-1.1	189/267/300	111	249	11	7	27%	9%	56	-0.5
✕Mariel Bautista 2021 · A	23	40→34	42→45	49→50	38	201/251/299	98	265	10	15	28%	5%	49	-1.8	209/254/332	123	305	13	11	34%	5%	59	-1.1	181/215/331	150	258	17	11	37%	3%	42	-0.5
✕Ethan Murray 2023 · AA	23	35→45	41→40	51→50	42	177/250/275	97	266	9	13	35%	8%	43	-2.2	197/270/288	91	301	7	12	34%	8%	55	-1.4	193/271/278	85	293	6	13	33%	8%	49	-1.1
✕Raul Siri 2018 · A	23	39	38→40	51→50	42	192/251/271	80	265	6	11	29%	7%	42	-2.3	199/264/283	84	349	5	9	41%	7%	51	-1.7	149/237/238	89	307	4	14	47%	8%	28	-0.6
✕Kenedy Corona 2022 · A	22	43→40	39→45	52→55	39	205/259/290	85	285	6	20	29%	5%	50	-1.8	206/268/333	127	294	13	23	33%	7%	66	-0.6	198/265/322	124	280	13	27	32%	7%	58	-0.9
✕Mycal Jones 2010 · A	23	40→45	41→45	55	42	196/253/300	105	266	6	14	28%	6%	50	-1.7	209/265/324	115	283	10	15	29%	6%	62	-0.9	219/277/306	87	283	6	24	24%	6%	59	-0.7
✕Johan Lopez 2023 · AA	23	40	43→45	51→55	40	193/267/298	105	296	11	13	36%	7%	56	-1.3	203/272/299	96	311	8	12	35%	8%	58	-1.2	170/253/239	69	277	4	11	36%	9%	33	-0.6
✕Hayden Cantrelle 2022 · AA	23	34	40→45	54→60	55	161/294/251	90	257	7	24	35%	14%	59	-1.1	189/306/294	105	299	8	20	35%	12%	73	-0.1	189/308/299	110	300	9	21	35%	12%	73	-0.1
✕Franklin Rollin 2019 · AAA	23	44	40	50→55	41	211/255/302	91	263	7	18	22%	4%	50	-1.7	199/250/282	83	267	7	13	27%	5%	43	-2.2	144/191/181	37	204	3	13	30%	4%	-10	-1.4
✕Gift Ngoepe 2013 · A	23	40	37→45	47→50	39	192/249/264	71	295	5	14	35%	6%	39	-2.5	194/253/292	98	314	8	14	38%	7%	48	-1.9	171/250/283	112	296	11	5	43%	9%	43	-0.9
✕Ray-Patrick Didder 2018 · A	23	42→47	38→45	52→60	38	198/274/276	78	294	5	18	32%	6%	54	-1.4	185/267/263	78	303	6	23	38%	7%	48	-1.9	198/285/310	113	286	12	28	32%	8%	64	-0.5
✕Oliver Marmol 2009 · A	23	37	36→40	55	38	180/236/245	66	252	3	19	29%	5%	29	-3.2	187/267/275	88	285	6	13	34%	6%	51	-1.7	159/261/249	90	258	5	10	36%	6%	42	-0.7
✕Chris Roller 2022 · AA	25	38	39→50	53→55	39	187/246/274	87	273	6	16	32%	6%	40	-2.4	190/267/311	121	291	12	16	36%	8%	60	-1.0	179/262/313	134	284	16	16	40%	8%	57	-0.7