Jeremy Rivas
SS Springfield Cardinals| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 21 | AA/INTL2 orgs | 534 | .266/.352/.327 | 5 | 31 | 73 | — | .241/.312/.278 |
| 2025 | 22 | AA/INTL2 orgs | 518 | .204/.297/.316 | 10 | 21 | 45 | — | .177/.253/.263 |
| 2026 | 23 | AAA/AASTL | 247 | .240/.352/.361 | 6 | 14 | 71 | — | .212/.299/.308 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 24 | MLBSTL | 3 | .195/.273/.277 | 0 | 0 | 58 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ31% MLB | 25 | MLBSTL | 67 | .199/.277/.289 | 1 | 2 | 63 | -0.1 | |
| 2029PROJ45% MLB | 26 | MLBSTL | 119 | .202/.279/.296 | 2 | 4 | 65 | -0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 30 / POW 40
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | FCL Cardinals | — | 200 | 177 | 48 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 32 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 271 | 348 | 322 | 671 | 51 | 327 | 16 | 8 | 308 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 471 | 425 | 104 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 37 | 104 | 4 | 8 | 6 | 245 | 311 | 301 | 612 | 56 | 316 | 22 | 8 | 280 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A+ | Peoria Chiefs | — | 453 | 397 | 83 | 18 | 0 | 3 | 45 | 101 | 4 | 22 | 5 | 209 | 296 | 277 | 573 | 68 | 268 | 22 | 10 | 264 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | INTL | Scottsdale Scorpions | — | 84 | 74 | 17 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 22 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 230 | 305 | 311 | 616 | 81 | 308 | 26 | 8 | 277 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | — | 459 | 395 | 104 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 46 | 85 | 8 | 27 | 10 | 263 | 352 | 311 | 663 | 48 | 325 | 19 | 10 | 304 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | INTL | Bravos de Margarita | — | 75 | 67 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 17 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 284 | 351 | 418 | 769 | 134 | 347 | 23 | 9 | 341 | 117 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | — | 487 | 427 | 87 | 17 | 1 | 10 | 48 | 135 | 10 | 21 | 8 | 204 | 298 | 319 | 617 | 115 | 272 | 28 | 10 | 284 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | INTL | Bravos de Margarita | — | 31 | 28 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 214 | 267 | 286 | 552 | 71 | 261 | 19 | 3 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | — | 104 | 86 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 28 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 233 | 359 | 291 | 650 | 58 | 328 | 27 | 15 | 307 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | — | 143 | 122 | 30 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 16 | 31 | 3 | 11 | 1 | 246 | 348 | 410 | 757 | 164 | 284 | 22 | 11 | 338 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Cardinals | — | 200 | 183 | 39 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 46 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 213 | 273 | 251 | 524 | 38 | 276 | 23 | 4 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A MLE | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 471 | 436 | 91 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 26 | 146 | 4 | 8 | 6 | 209 | 260 | 255 | 514 | 46 | 299 | 31 | 6 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A+ MLE | Peoria Chiefs | — | 453 | 411 | 70 | 14 | 0 | 2 | 31 | 134 | 4 | 22 | 5 | 170 | 235 | 219 | 454 | 49 | 239 | 30 | 7 | 210 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | AA MLE | Springfield Cardinals | — | 459 | 407 | 98 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 34 | 110 | 8 | 27 | 10 | 241 | 312 | 278 | 589 | 37 | 312 | 24 | 7 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AA MLE | Springfield Cardinals | — | 487 | 441 | 78 | 15 | 1 | 7 | 35 | 166 | 10 | 21 | 8 | 177 | 253 | 263 | 516 | 86 | 263 | 34 | 7 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AAA MLE | Memphis Redbirds | — | 104 | 90 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 34 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 211 | 311 | 267 | 577 | 56 | 306 | 33 | 12 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA MLE | Springfield Cardinals | — | 143 | 127 | 27 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 38 | 3 | 11 | 1 | 213 | 291 | 339 | 629 | 126 | 262 | 27 | 8 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Cardinals | — | 200 | 183 | 39 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 46 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 213 | 273 | 251 | 524 | 38 | 281 | 23 | 4 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK RAW | FCL Cardinals | — | 200 | 177 | 48 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 32 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 271 | 348 | 322 | 671 | 51 | 327 | 16 | 8 | 308 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A MLE | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 471 | 436 | 91 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 26 | 146 | 4 | 8 | 6 | 209 | 260 | 255 | 514 | 46 | 305 | 31 | 6 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A RAW | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 471 | 425 | 104 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 37 | 104 | 4 | 8 | 6 | 245 | 311 | 301 | 612 | 56 | 316 | 22 | 8 | 280 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 537 | 486 | 84 | 17 | 0 | 3 | 37 | 158 | 5 | 25 | 6 | 173 | 239 | 226 | 465 | 53 | 245 | 29 | 7 | 210 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 537 | 471 | 100 | 19 | 1 | 4 | 52 | 123 | 5 | 25 | 6 | 212 | 297 | 282 | 580 | 70 | 274 | 23 | 10 | 266 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 534 | 475 | 115 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 40 | 128 | 8 | 31 | 10 | 242 | 312 | 278 | 590 | 36 | 323 | 24 | 7 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 534 | 462 | 123 | 11 | 1 | 5 | 53 | 102 | 8 | 31 | 10 | 266 | 352 | 327 | 679 | 61 | 328 | 19 | 10 | 309 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 518 | 468 | 84 | 16 | 1 | 8 | 37 | 177 | 11 | 21 | 9 | 179 | 256 | 269 | 525 | 90 | 267 | 34 | 7 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 518 | 455 | 93 | 19 | 1 | 10 | 49 | 141 | 11 | 21 | 9 | 204 | 297 | 316 | 613 | 112 | 271 | 27 | 9 | 282 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 247 | 217 | 46 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 23 | 71 | 4 | 14 | 1 | 212 | 299 | 309 | 608 | 97 | 285 | 29 | 9 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 247 | 208 | 50 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 32 | 59 | 4 | 14 | 1 | 240 | 352 | 361 | 713 | 120 | 301 | 24 | 13 | 325 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Cardinals | — | 200 | 183 | 39 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 46 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 213 | 273 | 251 | 524 | 38 | 276 | 23 | 4 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A MLE | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 471 | 438 | 91 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 26 | 146 | 4 | 8 | 6 | 208 | 260 | 253 | 513 | 46 | 299 | 31 | 6 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 537 | 490 | 84 | 17 | 0 | 3 | 37 | 158 | 5 | 25 | 6 | 171 | 239 | 224 | 463 | 53 | 239 | 29 | 7 | 210 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 534 | 481 | 115 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 40 | 128 | 8 | 31 | 10 | 239 | 312 | 274 | 586 | 35 | 312 | 24 | 7 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 518 | 465 | 84 | 16 | 1 | 8 | 37 | 177 | 11 | 21 | 9 | 181 | 256 | 271 | 527 | 90 | 263 | 34 | 7 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 247 | 218 | 46 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 23 | 71 | 4 | 14 | 1 | 211 | 299 | 307 | 607 | 96 | 281 | 29 | 9 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 21 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 534 | 481 | 115 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 40 | 128 | 8 | 31 | 10 | 239 | 312 | 274 | 586 | 35 | 312 | 24 | 7 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 518 | 465 | 84 | 16 | 1 | 8 | 37 | 177 | 11 | 21 | 9 | 181 | 256 | 271 | 527 | 90 | 263 | 34 | 7 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 247 | 218 | 46 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 23 | 71 | 4 | 14 | 1 | 211 | 299 | 307 | 607 | 96 | 281 | 29 | 9 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB MLE | STL | 2% | 297 | 267 | 52 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 23 | 88 | 5 | 10 | 3 | 195 | 272 | 279 | 551 | 83 | 270 | 30 | 8 | 254 | 58 | -15 | +1 | +0 | +3 | +6 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB CTX | STL | 2% | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 195 | 273 | 277 | 550 | 81 | 271 | 33 | 0 | 254 | 58 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 25 | MLB MLE | STL | 31% | 215 | 193 | 38 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 63 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 199 | 277 | 291 | 568 | 92 | 271 | 29 | 8 | 261 | 63 | -10 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +5 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB MLE | STL | 45% | 267 | 239 | 49 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 22 | 77 | 4 | 9 | 2 | 202 | 279 | 299 | 578 | 97 | 272 | 29 | 8 | 265 | 65 | -11 | +1 | +0 | +3 | +6 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB MLE | STL | 49% | 289 | 260 | 53 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 23 | 83 | 4 | 10 | 3 | 203 | 280 | 302 | 582 | 99 | 273 | 29 | 8 | 266 | 66 | -12 | +1 | +0 | +3 | +6 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB MLE | STL | 52% | 302 | 271 | 55 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 24 | 86 | 4 | 9 | 2 | 204 | 281 | 303 | 583 | 99 | 273 | 28 | 8 | 267 | 67 | -12 | +1 | -1 | +3 | +7 | -0.2 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB MLE | STL | 52% | 298 | 268 | 54 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 24 | 85 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 203 | 280 | 302 | 582 | 99 | 273 | 29 | 8 | 266 | 66 | -12 | +1 | -1 | +3 | +6 | -0.3 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB MLE | STL | 52% | 296 | 266 | 54 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 24 | 85 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 201 | 276 | 295 | 571 | 94 | 271 | 29 | 8 | 262 | 63 | -13 | +0 | -2 | +3 | +6 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB CTX | STL | 31% | 67 | 61 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 19 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 199 | 277 | 289 | 565 | 89 | 273 | 28 | 7 | 260 | 63 | -3 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +1 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB CTX | STL | 45% | 119 | 106 | 22 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 34 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 202 | 279 | 296 | 575 | 94 | 274 | 29 | 8 | 264 | 65 | -5 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +3 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB CTX | STL | 49% | 142 | 127 | 25 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 41 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 203 | 280 | 299 | 580 | 96 | 275 | 29 | 8 | 266 | 66 | -6 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +3 | -0.0 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB CTX | STL | 52% | 156 | 140 | 29 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 44 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 204 | 281 | 300 | 581 | 96 | 275 | 28 | 8 | 266 | 67 | -6 | +1 | -0 | +2 | +3 | -0.1 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB CTX | STL | 52% | 154 | 139 | 28 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 44 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 204 | 280 | 300 | 579 | 96 | 275 | 29 | 8 | 265 | 66 | -6 | +0 | -1 | +2 | +3 | -0.2 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB CTX | STL | 52% | 152 | 137 | 27 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 44 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 201 | 277 | 292 | 569 | 92 | 273 | 29 | 8 | 261 | 63 | -7 | +0 | -1 | +2 | +3 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 790 | 710 | 143 | 25 | 0 | 13 | 64 | 226 | 11 | 23 | 6 | 201 | 278 | 292 | 569 | 90 | 273 | 29 | 8 | 264 | 55 | -33 | +2 | -2 | +8 | +17 | -0.7 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 584 | 118 | 21 | 0 | 11 | 53 | 186 | 9 | 19 | 5 | 202 | 279 | 295 | 573 | 92 | 274 | 29 | 8 | 264 | 55 | -27 | +2 | -2 | +7 | +14 | -0.6 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 4333 | 3904 | 789 | 119 | 9 | 51 | 319 | 1252 | 64 | 159 | 51 | 202 | 273 | 276 | 550 | 74 | 281 | 29 | 7 | 249 | 55 | -77 | +5 | -4 | +20 | +40 | -1.7 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 586 | 119 | 18 | 1 | 8 | 48 | 188 | 10 | 24 | 8 | 203 | 275 | 278 | 553 | 75 | 281 | 29 | 7 | 249 | 55 | -27 | +2 | -1 | +7 | +14 | -0.6 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AASpringfield Cardinals · 143 PAwOBA .334 → .285 (−48)K% 21.7% → 26.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.68% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 26.45% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.19% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 8.04% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.10% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.027 | 1.87% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.98% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×1.005 | ×1.027 | 20.87% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.49% | ÷1.000 | ×0.840 | ×1.005 | ×1.027 | 4.76% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.940 | ×1.005 | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.49% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 4.51% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.005.
Result: wOBA .334 → .285; ISO .164 → .137; BABIP .284 → .262. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 104 PAwOBA .303 → .257 (−47)K% 26.9% → 32.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.92% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 32.31% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.38% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 11.15% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.96% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 0.95% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.31% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×0.971 | ×1.050 | 27.79% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.45% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.971 | ×1.050 | 2.92% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.971 | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.72% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 1.27% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.971.
Result: wOBA .303 → .257; ISO .058 → .045; BABIP .328 → .306. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AASpringfield Cardinals · 487 PAwOBA .277 → .235 (−42)K% 27.7% → 34.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.72% | ÷0.992 | ×1.220 | — | — | 34.09% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.65% | ÷0.987 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.042 | 7.13% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.05% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.042 | 1.86% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.21% | ÷0.966 | ×0.920 | ×0.991 | ×1.042 | 19.88% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.82% | ÷0.916 | ×0.840 | ×0.991 | ×1.042 | 5.51% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.34% | ÷0.900 | ×0.940 | ×0.991 | ×1.042 | 0.37% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.42% | ÷1.105 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.042 | 2.58% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 121, 1B 93, 2B 83, 3B 80, K 98, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.991.
Result: wOBA .277 → .235; ISO .115 → .091; BABIP .272 → .263. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AASpringfield Cardinals · 459 PAwOBA .299 → .266 (−33)K% 18.5% → 24.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.52% | ÷0.943 | ×1.220 | — | — | 23.97% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.02% | ÷0.992 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 7.42% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.74% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.050 | 1.59% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.68% | ÷0.998 | ×0.920 | ×1.002 | ×1.050 | 28.77% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.58% | ÷0.940 | ×0.840 | ×1.002 | ×1.050 | 2.43% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.32% | ÷1.150 | ×0.940 | ×1.002 | ×1.050 | 0.28% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.97% | ÷1.386 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.050 | 0.59% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 177, 1B 100, 2B 88, 3B 130, K 89, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.002.
Result: wOBA .299 → .266; ISO .048 → .037; BABIP .325 → .312. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Peoria Chiefs · 453 PAwOBA .261 → .210 (−51)K% 22.3% → 29.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.30% | ÷0.961 | ×1.270 | — | — | 29.48% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.93% | ÷1.065 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.042 | 6.90% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.88% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.042 | 0.73% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.95% | ÷1.030 | ×0.920 | ×0.979 | ×1.042 | 19.09% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.08% | ÷0.992 | ×0.810 | ×0.979 | ×1.042 | 5.06% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.850 | ×0.979 | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.01% | ÷1.093 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.042 | 0.77% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 119, 1B 106, 2B 98, 3B 80, K 92, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.979.
Result: wOBA .261 → .210; ISO .068 → .053; BABIP .268 → .239. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 APalm Beach Cardinals · 471 PAwOBA .276 → .229 (−46)K% 22.1% → 31.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.08% | ÷0.966 | ×1.360 | — | — | 31.09% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.86% | ÷1.029 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.045 | 5.50% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.85% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.045 | 0.69% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.48% | ÷0.985 | ×0.920 | ×0.998 | ×1.045 | 25.81% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.98% | ÷1.076 | ×0.830 | ×0.998 | ×1.045 | 4.01% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.31% | ÷0.900 | ×0.910 | ×0.998 | ×1.045 | 0.33% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.62% | ÷0.880 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.045 | 0.59% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 76, 1B 97, 2B 115, 3B 80, K 93, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.998.
Result: wOBA .276 → .229; ISO .056 → .045; BABIP .316 → .299. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 ROKFCL Cardinals · 200 PAwOBA .304 → .236 (−68)K% 16.0% → 23.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.00% | ÷0.999 | ×1.440 | — | — | 23.05% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.50% | ÷1.007 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.022 | 4.72% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.022 | 2.21% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.59% | ÷0.988 | ×0.820 | ×1.015 | ×1.022 | 23.75% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.83% | ÷0.973 | ×0.720 | ×1.015 | ×1.022 | 3.71% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.69% | ÷0.941 | ×0.720 | ×1.015 | ×1.022 | 0.55% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 98, 2B 95, 3B 88, K 100, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.015.
Result: wOBA .304 → .236; ISO .051 → .038; BABIP .327 → .276. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .