CJ Kayfus
LF Columbus Clippers| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 22 | AA/A+CLE | 481 | .291/.397/.511 | 17 | 5 | 106 | — | .251/.336/.426 |
| 2025 | 23 | AAA/AACLE | 369 | .300/.393/.539 | 14 | 4 | 106 | — | .249/.322/.422 |
| 2025 | 23 | MLBCLE | 138 | .220/.294/.415 | 4 | 4 | 96 | -0.6 | |
| 2026 | 24 | AAACLE | 199 | .240/.355/.353 | 3 | 6 | 74 | — | .213/.305/.299 |
| 2026 | 24 | MLBCLE | 25 | .182/.280/.364 | 1 | 0 | 83 | -0.4 | |
| 2027PROJ45% MLB | 25 | MLBCLE | 70 | .216/.299/.367 | 2 | 1 | 90 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ51% MLB | 26 | MLBCLE | 128 | .220/.303/.381 | 4 | 2 | 94 | -0.0 | |
| 2029PROJ53% MLB | 27 | MLBCLE | 145 | .220/.302/.380 | 4 | 2 | 94 | -0.1 |
Tools · Splits · ContractCON 50 / POW 60
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 21 | A | Lynchburg Hillcats | — | 77 | 59 | 16 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 12 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 271 | 434 | 542 | 977 | 271 | 273 | 16 | 19 | 424 | 118 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AA | Akron RubberDucks | — | 298 | 251 | 66 | 14 | 4 | 10 | 36 | 84 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 263 | 371 | 470 | 841 | 207 | 348 | 28 | 12 | 369 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ | Lake County Captains | — | 183 | 154 | 52 | 12 | 2 | 7 | 23 | 33 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 338 | 440 | 578 | 1.017 | 240 | 391 | 18 | 13 | 443 | 120 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MLB | Cleveland Guardians | — | 138 | 123 | 27 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 38 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 220 | 294 | 415 | 709 | 195 | 280 | 28 | 8 | 310 | 96 | -1 | +1 | -3 | -5 | +3 | -0.6 |
| 2025 | 23 | AAA | Columbus Clippers | — | 289 | 251 | 71 | 14 | 4 | 13 | 33 | 79 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 283 | 371 | 526 | 897 | 243 | 358 | 27 | 11 | 388 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA | Akron RubberDucks | — | 80 | 66 | 24 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 11 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 364 | 475 | 591 | 1.066 | 227 | 451 | 18 | 14 | 464 | 162 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | MLB | Cleveland Guardians | — | 25 | 22 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 182 | 280 | 364 | 644 | 182 | 231 | 32 | 8 | 292 | 83 | -0 | +0 | -2 | -2 | +1 | -0.4 |
| 2026 | 24 | AAA | Columbus Clippers | — | 199 | 167 | 40 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 24 | 54 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 240 | 355 | 353 | 709 | 114 | 330 | 27 | 12 | 324 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 163 | 145 | 31 | 11 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 46 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 214 | 292 | 407 | 699 | 193 | 274 | 28 | 8 | 307 | 94 | -1 | +1 | -5 | -8 | +4 | -1.0 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 21 | A MLE | Lynchburg Hillcats | — | 77 | 64 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 17 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 234 | 355 | 438 | 793 | 203 | 245 | 22 | 13 | 342 | 118 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AA MLE | Akron RubberDucks | — | 298 | 261 | 61 | 13 | 4 | 8 | 26 | 105 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 234 | 320 | 406 | 726 | 172 | 335 | 35 | 9 | 313 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ MLE | Lake County Captains | — | 183 | 161 | 45 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 16 | 41 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 280 | 363 | 460 | 822 | 180 | 334 | 22 | 9 | 346 | 120 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MLB MLE | Cleveland Guardians | — | 138 | 123 | 27 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 38 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 220 | 294 | 415 | 709 | 195 | 280 | 28 | 8 | 311 | 96 | -1 | +1 | -3 | -5 | +3 | -0.6 |
| 2025 | 23 | AAA MLE | Columbus Clippers | — | 289 | 261 | 60 | 11 | 4 | 8 | 23 | 99 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 230 | 297 | 395 | 692 | 165 | 327 | 34 | 8 | 303 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA MLE | Akron RubberDucks | — | 80 | 69 | 22 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 18 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 319 | 412 | 522 | 934 | 203 | 436 | 22 | 10 | 407 | 162 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | MLB MLE | Cleveland Guardians | — | 25 | 22 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 182 | 280 | 364 | 644 | 182 | 231 | 32 | 8 | 291 | 83 | -0 | +0 | -2 | -2 | +1 | -0.4 |
| 2026 | 24 | AAA MLE | Columbus Clippers | — | 199 | 174 | 37 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 65 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 213 | 305 | 299 | 603 | 86 | 318 | 33 | 9 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A MLE | Lynchburg Hillcats | — | 77 | 64 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 17 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 234 | 355 | 438 | 793 | 203 | 267 | 22 | 13 | 342 | 118 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A RAW | Lynchburg Hillcats | — | 77 | 59 | 16 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 12 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 271 | 434 | 542 | 977 | 271 | 273 | 16 | 19 | 424 | 118 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 481 | 421 | 104 | 22 | 5 | 13 | 43 | 146 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 247 | 334 | 416 | 750 | 169 | 341 | 30 | 9 | 326 | 106 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 481 | 405 | 118 | 26 | 6 | 17 | 59 | 117 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 291 | 397 | 511 | 908 | 220 | 366 | 24 | 12 | 397 | 106 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 507 | 452 | 110 | 24 | 9 | 13 | 43 | 155 | 7 | 8 | 2 | 243 | 319 | 423 | 741 | 179 | 337 | 31 | 8 | 321 | 104 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AAA RAW | 3 teams | — | 507 | 440 | 122 | 28 | 9 | 18 | 55 | 131 | 7 | 8 | 2 | 277 | 367 | 505 | 871 | 227 | 353 | 26 | 11 | 379 | 104 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 224 | 196 | 41 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 19 | 73 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 209 | 302 | 306 | 608 | 97 | 311 | 33 | 8 | 280 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 224 | 189 | 44 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 26 | 62 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 233 | 347 | 354 | 701 | 122 | 320 | 28 | 12 | 321 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A MLE | Lynchburg Hillcats | — | 77 | 65 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 17 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 231 | 355 | 431 | 786 | 200 | 245 | 22 | 13 | 342 | 118 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 481 | 423 | 104 | 22 | 5 | 13 | 43 | 146 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 246 | 334 | 414 | 748 | 168 | 335 | 30 | 9 | 326 | 106 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 507 | 452 | 110 | 24 | 9 | 13 | 43 | 155 | 7 | 8 | 2 | 243 | 319 | 423 | 741 | 179 | 332 | 31 | 8 | 321 | 104 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 224 | 196 | 41 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 19 | 73 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 209 | 302 | 306 | 608 | 97 | 308 | 33 | 8 | 280 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 481 | 423 | 104 | 22 | 5 | 13 | 43 | 146 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 246 | 334 | 414 | 748 | 168 | 335 | 30 | 9 | 326 | 106 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 507 | 452 | 110 | 24 | 9 | 13 | 43 | 155 | 7 | 8 | 2 | 243 | 319 | 423 | 741 | 179 | 332 | 31 | 8 | 321 | 104 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 224 | 196 | 41 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 19 | 73 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 209 | 302 | 306 | 608 | 97 | 308 | 33 | 8 | 280 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB MLE | CLE | 45% | 274 | 244 | 53 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 23 | 83 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 217 | 300 | 371 | 671 | 154 | 294 | 30 | 8 | 301 | 90 | -3 | +1 | -2 | -3 | +6 | 0.0 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB CTX | CLE | 45% | 70 | 63 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 21 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 216 | 299 | 367 | 666 | 151 | 292 | 30 | 9 | 299 | 90 | -1 | +0 | -1 | -1 | +2 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 26 | MLB MLE | CLE | 51% | 251 | 222 | 49 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 22 | 75 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 221 | 304 | 385 | 689 | 164 | 294 | 30 | 9 | 307 | 94 | -2 | +0 | -2 | -3 | +5 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB MLE | CLE | 53% | 275 | 244 | 54 | 10 | 3 | 8 | 24 | 81 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 221 | 303 | 384 | 687 | 162 | 293 | 29 | 9 | 306 | 94 | -2 | +0 | -2 | -3 | +6 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB MLE | CLE | 53% | 289 | 257 | 57 | 11 | 3 | 8 | 25 | 85 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 220 | 302 | 380 | 681 | 159 | 291 | 29 | 9 | 304 | 92 | -3 | +0 | -3 | -3 | +6 | -0.2 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB MLE | CLE | 53% | 285 | 254 | 56 | 10 | 3 | 8 | 24 | 84 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 219 | 299 | 374 | 674 | 155 | 289 | 29 | 8 | 301 | 90 | -3 | +0 | -4 | -3 | +6 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB CTX | CLE | 51% | 128 | 114 | 25 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 38 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 220 | 303 | 381 | 684 | 161 | 293 | 30 | 9 | 306 | 94 | -1 | +0 | -1 | -1 | +3 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB CTX | CLE | 53% | 145 | 128 | 28 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 43 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 220 | 302 | 380 | 682 | 159 | 292 | 30 | 9 | 305 | 94 | -1 | +0 | -1 | -2 | +3 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB CTX | CLE | 53% | 154 | 137 | 30 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 45 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 220 | 301 | 376 | 677 | 156 | 290 | 29 | 8 | 303 | 92 | -1 | +0 | -2 | -2 | +3 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB CTX | CLE | 53% | 150 | 133 | 29 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 44 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 218 | 299 | 371 | 670 | 153 | 288 | 29 | 9 | 300 | 90 | -2 | +0 | -2 | -2 | +3 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 740 | 657 | 143 | 33 | 5 | 21 | 63 | 216 | 14 | 11 | 3 | 218 | 300 | 379 | 679 | 161 | 287 | 29 | 9 | 304 | 96 | -6 | +1 | -11 | -14 | +16 | -1.4 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 577 | 125 | 29 | 4 | 18 | 55 | 190 | 12 | 10 | 3 | 217 | 298 | 374 | 672 | 158 | 287 | 29 | 8 | 304 | 96 | -6 | +1 | -9 | -12 | +14 | -1.3 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2544 | 2248 | 516 | 102 | 30 | 67 | 223 | 763 | 51 | 41 | 12 | 230 | 313 | 391 | 704 | 161 | 313 | 30 | 9 | 311 | 96 | -13 | +2 | -17 | -21 | +31 | -1.9 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 574 | 132 | 26 | 8 | 17 | 57 | 195 | 13 | 10 | 3 | 230 | 313 | 392 | 705 | 162 | 314 | 30 | 9 | 311 | 96 | -6 | +1 | -8 | -10 | +14 | -0.9 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAAColumbus Clippers · 199 PAwOBA .320 → .278 (−42)K% 27.1% → 32.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.14% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 32.56% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.06% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 8.60% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.02% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 2.93% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.66% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×1.026 | ×1.033 | 25.28% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.31% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.026 | ×1.033 | 4.67% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.77% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×1.026 | ×1.033 | 1.82% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.65% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 1.92% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.026.
Result: wOBA .320 → .278; ISO .114 → .094; BABIP .330 → .318. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAAColumbus Clippers · 289 PAwOBA .382 → .303 (−79)K% 27.3% → 34.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.34% | ÷0.956 | ×1.200 | — | — | 34.31% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.42% | ÷1.014 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 8.15% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.69% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 0.68% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.26% | ÷0.997 | ×0.930 | ×0.999 | ×1.048 | 22.72% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.14% | ÷1.064 | ×0.830 | ×0.999 | ×1.048 | 6.65% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.33% | ÷1.042 | ×0.970 | ×0.999 | ×1.048 | 2.27% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.56% | ÷1.093 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.048 | 5.08% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 118, 1B 99, 2B 113, 3B 108, K 91, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.
Result: wOBA .382 → .303; ISO .243 → .173; BABIP .358 → .327. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAAkron RubberDucks · 80 PAwOBA .453 → .407 (−45)K% 17.5% → 22.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.50% | ÷0.948 | ×1.220 | — | — | 22.52% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.75% | ÷0.953 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 10.22% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.75% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 3.23% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.85% | ÷1.004 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.012 | 28.20% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.69% | ÷0.986 | ×0.860 | — | ×1.012 | 6.79% |
| Triples /BIP | 7.69% | ÷0.935 | ×0.950 | — | ×1.012 | 7.91% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.92% | ÷0.926 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 1.64% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 101, 2B 97, 3B 87, K 90, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .453 → .407; ISO .227 → .214; BABIP .451 → .436. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAAkron RubberDucks · 298 PAwOBA .364 → .313 (−52)K% 28.2% → 35.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.19% | ÷0.980 | ×1.220 | — | — | 35.10% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.08% | ÷0.987 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 8.80% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.35% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.027 | 2.05% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.75% | ÷0.993 | ×0.970 | ×0.991 | ×1.027 | 22.63% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.38% | ÷0.944 | ×0.860 | ×0.991 | ×1.027 | 7.77% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.40% | ÷1.023 | ×0.950 | ×0.991 | ×1.027 | 2.26% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.99% | ÷0.966 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.027 | 4.97% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 99, 2B 89, 3B 105, K 96, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.991.
Result: wOBA .364 → .313; ISO .207 → .175; BABIP .348 → .335. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Lake County Captains · 183 PAwOBA .433 → .346 (−88)K% 18.0% → 22.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.03% | ÷1.023 | ×1.270 | — | — | 22.38% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.57% | ÷0.999 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 8.91% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.73% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.998 | 2.15% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.62% | ÷0.995 | ×0.920 | ×0.974 | ×0.998 | 23.02% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.92% | ÷0.978 | ×0.810 | ×0.974 | ×0.998 | 7.98% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.65% | ÷1.023 | ×0.850 | ×0.974 | ×0.998 | 1.33% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.79% | ÷1.190 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 3.88% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 138, 1B 99, 2B 96, 3B 105, K 105, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.974.
Result: wOBA .433 → .346; ISO .240 → .176; BABIP .391 → .334. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ALynchburg Hillcats · 77 PAwOBA .419 → .342 (−77)K% 15.6% → 21.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.58% | ÷0.981 | ×1.360 | — | — | 21.60% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 19.48% | ÷1.020 | ×0.690 | — | — | 13.18% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.60% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 2.03% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.02% | ÷0.992 | ×0.920 | ×1.006 | — | 15.88% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.51% | ÷0.947 | ×0.830 | ×1.006 | — | 7.51% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.982 | ×0.910 | ×1.006 | — | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.51% | ÷1.017 | ×0.800 | — | — | 6.70% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 98, 2B 89, 3B 96, K 96, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.006.
Result: wOBA .419 → .342; ISO .271 → .228; BABIP .273 → .245. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).