Andrew Painter

P Philadelphia Phillies

Age 24 RHP 6'7" / 215 lbs MLB Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 1.6 · 2029

Overview

MLBSP40-MANPre-ArbFA 2033

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	19	MIX3 levels	22	22	104	1.56	1.46	38.7%	6.2%	—	K 29.6% · BB 7.3% · FIP 2.38
2025	22	MIX2 levels	26	26	118	5.26	4.41	23.7%	9.0%	—	K 20.1% · BB 8.7% · FIP 4.92
2026	23	MIX2 levels	30	28	150	5.27	4.32	21.4%	8.4%	1.0	K 20.9% · BB 8.3% · FIP 4.22
2027PROJ	24	MLBPHI	23	23	127	4.46	4.38	23.1%	7.6%	0.8
2028PROJ95% MLB	25	MLBPHI	25	25	147	4.50	4.43	23.8%	7.4%	1.1
2029PROJ95% MLB	26	MLBPHI	26	26	159	4.44	4.39	24.2%	7.4%	1.2

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.0 · Next 3 projected WAR 3.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2032Service0.000First FA2033

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Arb-1$5M2031Arb-2$8M2032Arb-3$10M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo79

Whiff%52

K%41

xwOBA vs41

CompsMike Foltynewicz (age 24) · Luke Weaver (age 24) · Owen Wild (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115107vR 99

ERA4.46

FIP4.38

K%23.1%

BB%7.6%

K-BB%15.5%

Proj IP127

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 127 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$21M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—60

STUF5560

CTRL6060

CMD5060

K†5560

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7996.6

Whiff%

p5225.6%

p4120.8%

xwOBA vs

p410.322

CH (11%)

SI (9%)

CU (6%)

SL-0.9 (34%)

FB-1.0 (41%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.1	$8M	+$7M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.2	$8M	+$8M
2030	Arb-1	$5M	+1.1	$7M	+$3M
2031	Arb-2	$8M	+1.0	$6M	+$0.7M
2032	Arb-3	$10M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$15M		$34M	+$22M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	18	ROK MLE	FCL Phillies	4	4	6	21	12	0	0	100%	1.5	57.1%	0.0%	57.1%	0.0%	0.00	-1.73	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	FCL Phillies	4	4	6	21	12	0	0	100%	1.5	57.1%	0.0%	57.1%	0.0%	0.00	-0.90	—
2022	19	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	22	104	401	155	25	5	100%	4.7	29.6%	7.3%	22.4%	1.6%	1.56	2.38	—
2022	19	MIX RAW	3 levels	22	22	104	401	155	25	5	100%	4.7	38.7%	6.2%	32.4%	1.2%	1.56	1.46	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	118	520	123	47	20	100%	4.5	20.1%	8.7%	11.4%	4.4%	5.26	4.92	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	118	520	123	47	20	100%	4.5	20.1%	8.7%	11.4%	4.4%	5.26	4.92	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	26	118	520	123	47	20	100%	4.5	23.7%	9.0%	14.6%	3.8%	5.26	4.41	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	28	150	653	140	55	23	93%	5.0	20.9%	8.3%	12.6%	3.3%	5.27	4.22	+1.2
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	28	150	653	140	55	23	93%	5.0	20.9%	8.3%	12.6%	3.3%	5.27	4.22	+1.2
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	28	150	653	140	55	23	93%	5.0	21.4%	8.4%	13.0%	3.5%	5.27	4.32	+1.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			25	23	127	552	115	47	21	92%	5.1	20.8%	8.5%	12.3%	3.8%	5.40	4.55	+0.5
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	PHI	23	23	127	536	124	41	18	100%	5.5	23.1%	7.6%	15.5%	3.4%	4.46	4.38	+0.8
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	PHI	26	26	155	654	156	48	22	100%	6.0	23.8%	7.4%	16.4%	3.4%	4.36	4.29	+1.1
2029	26	MLB MLE	PHI	28	28	167	705	171	52	24	100%	6.0	24.2%	7.4%	16.8%	3.4%	4.30	4.25	+1.3
2030	27	MLB MLE	PHI	28	28	168	711	172	53	25	100%	6.0	24.2%	7.4%	16.7%	3.5%	4.29	4.29	+1.2
2031	28	MLB MLE	PHI	28	28	168	711	171	54	25	100%	6.0	24.1%	7.6%	16.5%	3.6%	4.34	4.37	+1.0
2032	29	MLB MLE	PHI	27	27	161	679	160	53	25	100%	6.0	23.5%	7.8%	15.7%	3.7%	4.46	4.54	+0.7
2033	30	MLB MLE	PHI	25	25	151	638	145	52	25	100%	6.0	22.8%	8.1%	14.7%	3.9%	4.63	4.74	+0.3
2034	31	MLB MLE	PHI	24	24	141	595	131	50	25	100%	5.9	22.0%	8.5%	13.6%	4.2%	4.84	4.97	-0.1
2035	32	MLB MLE	PHI	22	22	130	551	117	49	24	100%	5.9	21.2%	8.9%	12.3%	4.4%	5.07	5.23	-0.5
2028	25	MLB CTX	PHI	25	25	147	621	148	46	23	100%	5.9	23.8%	7.4%	16.4%	3.7%	4.50	4.43	+1.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	PHI	26	26	159	671	162	49	25	100%	6.1	24.2%	7.4%	16.8%	3.7%	4.44	4.39	+1.2
2030	27	MLB CTX	PHI	27	27	160	676	163	50	25	100%	5.9	24.2%	7.4%	16.7%	3.7%	4.43	4.43	+1.1
2031	28	MLB CTX	PHI	27	27	160	676	163	51	26	100%	5.9	24.1%	7.6%	16.5%	3.8%	4.48	4.51	+1.0
2032	29	MLB CTX	PHI	26	26	153	646	152	51	26	100%	5.9	23.5%	7.8%	15.7%	4.0%	4.61	4.69	+0.6
2033	30	MLB CTX	PHI	24	24	144	608	139	49	26	100%	6.0	22.8%	8.1%	14.7%	4.2%	4.79	4.90	+0.3
2034	31	MLB CTX	PHI	22	22	134	566	125	48	25	100%	6.1	22.0%	8.5%	13.6%	4.5%	5.01	5.14	-0.1
2035	32	MLB CTX	PHI	21	21	124	524	111	46	25	100%	5.9	21.2%	8.9%	12.3%	4.7%	5.25	5.41	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		222	220	1307	5536	1277	438	221	99%	5.9	23.1%	7.9%	15.1%	4.0%	4.73	4.35	+8.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	847	195	67	34	99%	5.9	23.1%	7.9%	15.1%	4.0%	4.73	4.35	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		82	80	378	1595	372	129	51	98%	4.6	23.3%	8.1%	15.2%	3.2%	4.17	3.91	+5.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		43	42	200	844	197	68	27	98%	4.6	23.3%	8.1%	15.2%	3.2%	4.17	3.91	+0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Andrew Painter (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.38	23.1%	7.6%	3.4%	—	4.28	24.1%	16.7%	490	-0.10	—	—	—
Mike Foltynewicz R 2016 · 3.97 FIP	24	SP	3.97	21.1%	7.6%	3.1%	.280	3.76	23.0%	14.8%	505	-0.21	3.17	957	80
Luke Weaver R 2018 · 4.35 FIP	24	SP	4.35	19.9%	8.5%	3.4%	.314	3.85	24.1%	18.0%	182	-0.50	2.54	1,043	79
Owen Wild R 2024 · 3.67 FIP	22	SP	3.67	23.2%	7.2%	2.9%	.319	4.90	21.2%	12.1%	166	+1.23	3.67	287	79
Riley Gowens R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	22.6%	10.3%	3.7%	.279	4.37	21.3%	12.1%	173	-0.18	4.30	295	78
Brian Edgington R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	25	SP	3.99	19.5%	6.5%	3.1%	.321	5.28	19.3%	7.0%	58	+1.29	3.99	171	78
Trevor Martin R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	23	SP	4.21	20.6%	8.1%	3.3%	.296	4.16	19.9%	9.6%	121	-0.05	3.94	353	78
Shumpei Yoshikawa R 2019 · 3.84 FIP	24	SP	3.84	21.8%	5.6%	3.4%	.336	6.33	25.7%	15.1%	20	+2.49	3.84	124	78
Will Warren R 2023 · 4.06 FIP	24	SP	4.06	22.9%	10.1%	2.9%	.287	3.91	23.9%	15.7%	451	-0.15	3.72	709	78
Tyler Stuart R 2024 · 3.53 FIP	24	SP	3.53	21.1%	7.4%	2.3%	.319	6.01	15.6%	0.6%	19	+2.48	3.53	252	77
Raisel Iglesias R 2015 · 3.54 FIP	25	SP	3.54	23.7%	7.1%	2.8%	.271	3.11	27.7%	19.6%	226	-0.43	1.34	825	77
Brandon Sproat R 2024 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP	4.39	22.9%	9.7%	3.6%	.264	3.94	21.7%	11.0%	261	-0.45	3.43	377	77
Dom Hamel R 2023 · 3.94 FIP	24	SP	3.94	24.6%	10.2%	2.9%	.314	5.10	18.0%	7.8%	304	+1.16	3.61	547	76
Emerson Hancock R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	24	SP	4.30	21.1%	10.2%	3.1%	.288	4.31	18.5%	11.5%	428	+0.01	3.24	669	76
Nolan McLean R 2024 · 4.40 FIP	23	SP	4.40	20.0%	10.1%	3.1%	.292	3.26	25.6%	16.0%	341	-1.14	3.17	451	76
Chad Kuhl R 2017 · 4.03 FIP	24	SP	4.03	20.9%	9.6%	2.7%	.311	4.88	21.9%	11.3%	131	+0.85	3.92	983	75
Gavin Stone R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	24	SP-	4.43	21.5%	9.3%	3.6%	.309	3.80	20.9%	14.6%	156	-0.63	2.39	500	75
Alex Faedo R 2019 · 3.73 FIP	23	SP	3.73	22.9%	5.8%	3.3%	.293	4.52	18.0%	7.8%	54	+0.79	3.50	459	75
Carson Ragsdale R 2021 · 4.21 FIP	23	SP	4.21	25.0%	10.7%	3.4%	.349	4.27	25.0%	14.6%	148	+0.06	2.00	352	75
Ben Gross R 2021 · 4.05 FIP	24	SP-	4.05	23.0%	8.8%	3.2%	.359	4.85	17.6%	2.0%	22	+0.80	4.05	118	75
Andy Ferguson R 2015 · 3.68 FIP	26	SP-	3.68	22.3%	5.7%	3.2%	.262	3.10	18.6%	10.6%	33	-0.58	3.10	137	75

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	7.5	150	23.1%	7.9%	1.44	4.58
Jack Scott ('16-'29, 13 WAR*)	9.1	165	22.5%*	7.7%*	1.37*	4.46*
Steve Stone ('71-'81, 16 WAR*)	8.9	163	21.3%*	9.2%*	1.34*	4.35*
Bill Voiselle ('42-'50, 12 WAR*)	6.9	172	23.3%*	9.2%*	1.41*	4.32*
Jon Gray ('25)	6.2	123	23.4%	7.8%	1.17	4.49
Tyler Anderson ('25)	6.3	126	19.5%	7.8%	1.32	4.30
Ted Lilly ('13)	9.9	142	20.0%	7.9%	1.33	4.14