Elvis Garcia — OGILVIE

Elvis Garcia P FCL Astros

Age 23 RHP 6'0" / 165 lbs ROK peak 0.2 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 1 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 103

ERA4.51

FIP4.51

K%22.8%

BB%10.4%

K-BB%12.4%

ROS IP1

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 1 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	8	42	172	41	20	3	73%	3.8	16.9%	14.2%	2.7%	2.3%	3.00	4.72	—
2021	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	11	8	42	172	41	20	3	73%	3.8	23.8%	11.6%	12.2%	1.7%	3.00	3.50	—
2022	19	ROK MLE	FCL Astros Orange	5	2	16	80	11	10	1	40%	3.3	9.4%	15.6%	-6.3%	1.7%	6.61	5.20	—
2022	19	ROK RAW	FCL Astros Orange	5	2	16	80	11	10	1	40%	3.3	13.8%	12.5%	1.3%	1.2%	6.61	4.39	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	8	3	24	112	22	14	3	38%	3.0	13.1%	14.2%	-1.1%	2.3%	6.38	5.06	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	8	3	24	112	22	14	3	38%	3.0	13.1%	14.2%	-1.1%	2.3%	6.38	5.06	—
2023	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	8	3	24	112	22	14	3	38%	3.0	19.6%	12.5%	7.1%	2.7%	6.38	4.64	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	23	MLB	HOU	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	100%	1.0	22.8%	10.4%	12.4%	3.0%	4.51	4.51	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	HOU	3	3	20	84	20	8	3	100%	6.7	23.4%	9.7%	13.7%	3.0%	4.41	4.36	+0.1
2027	24	MLB CTX	HOU	1	1	9	38	9	4	1	100%	9.0	23.4%	9.7%	13.7%	3.0%	4.41	4.36	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		1	1	9	36	8	4	1	100%	8.6	23.4%	9.7%	13.7%	3.0%	4.41	3.98	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		32	32	200	844	187	94	23	100%	6.3	23.4%	9.7%	13.7%	3.0%	4.41	3.98	+2.2
Career	—	MLE		24	13	82	364	51	53	8	54%	3.4	14.1%	14.5%	-0.4%	2.1%	4.70	4.93	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		58	32	200	884	124	128	19	54%	3.4	14.1%	14.5%	-0.4%	2.1%	4.70	4.93	+1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Elvis Garcia (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.51	22.8%	10.4%	3.0%	—	4.36	23.4%	13.7%	20	-0.15	—	—	—
Hunter Gregory R 2022 · 3.90 FIP	23	SP-	3.90	21.2%	8.7%	2.7%	.374	4.56	20.4%	7.8%	188	+0.66	3.84	249	85
Casey Legumina R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP-	4.08	23.3%	9.3%	3.2%	.260	4.36	19.8%	10.9%	189	+0.28	3.06	349	85
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.38	17.8%	5.3%	123	-0.47	3.90	164	83
Colin Fields R 2023 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP-	3.62	20.5%	10.3%	1.7%	.246	3.86	22.0%	13.3%	208	+0.24	2.87	254	82
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	81
Rico Garcia R 2017 · 3.37 FIP	23	SP-	3.37	18.8%	7.0%	1.8%	.316	4.07	19.8%	11.5%	296	+0.70	3.37	587	80
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.72	16.0%	6.0%	316	+0.17	3.97	371	79
Nathanael Santiago R 2015 · 3.44 FIP	25	SP-	3.44	20.3%	11.4%	1.1%	.286	3.58	23.2%	10.9%	71	+0.14	2.49	138	79
Blair Henley R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	24	SP-	5.02	20.8%	12.2%	3.9%	.450	4.53	17.5%	5.2%	170	-0.49	3.97	187	79
Keith Rogalla R 2019 · 3.52 FIP	23	SP-	3.52	21.2%	11.7%	1.3%	.344	3.68	18.0%	5.9%	65	+0.16	3.10	113	79
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	78
Ryan Jennings R 2023 · 3.43 FIP	24	SP-	3.43	23.4%	11.9%	1.5%	.316	4.34	22.5%	9.8%	109	+0.91	3.43	142	77
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.13	25.3%	15.3%	121	-0.38	3.26	181	77
Orlando Rodriguez R 2021 · 4.54 FIP	25	SP-	4.54	20.8%	10.1%	3.5%	.380	4.51	19.3%	7.9%	101	-0.03	4.40	119	77
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	77
Eccel Correa R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	20	SW	4.39	19.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.316	4.41	14.0%	2.2%	154	+0.02	3.96	189	76
Mitch Neunborn R 2023 · 3.65 FIP	26	SP-	3.65	24.5%	9.5%	2.6%	.232	5.15	17.6%	6.7%	202	+1.50	3.65	245	75
Patrick Halligan R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SW	4.43	18.8%	11.6%	2.6%	.330	3.73	25.0%	14.9%	174	-0.70	2.47	304	75
J.C. Flowers R 2021 · 3.59 FIP	23	SP-	3.59	21.3%	8.7%	2.1%	.330	4.86	16.2%	2.6%	184	+1.27	3.59	281	75
Clay Chandler R 2017 · 4.97 FIP	23	SP-	4.97	18.3%	6.0%	4.8%	.319	4.89	14.8%	8.8%	293	-0.08	4.49	328	74