Elvis Garcia
P
FCL Astros
Age 23
RHP
6'0" / 165 lbs
ROK
peak 0.3 · 2027
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 10 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117108vR 99
ERA4.33
FIP4.33
K%23.3%
BB%9.2%
K-BB%14.1%
ROS IP11
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 10 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 18 | MIX | 2 levels | 11 | 8 | 42 | 172 | 41 | 20 | 3 | 73% | 3.8 | 16.9% | 14.2% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 3.00 | 4.67 | — |
| 2021 | 18 | MIX | 2 levels | 11 | 8 | 42 | 172 | 41 | 20 | 3 | 73% | 3.8 | 23.8% | 11.6% | 12.2% | 1.7% | 3.00 | 3.50 | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | FCL Astros Orange | 5 | 2 | 16 | 80 | 11 | 10 | 1 | 40% | 3.3 | 9.4% | 15.6% | -6.3% | 1.6% | 6.61 | 5.15 | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | FCL Astros Orange | 5 | 2 | 16 | 80 | 11 | 10 | 1 | 40% | 3.3 | 13.8% | 12.5% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 6.61 | 4.39 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 8 | 3 | 24 | 112 | 22 | 14 | 3 | 38% | 3.0 | 13.1% | 14.2% | -1.1% | 1.8% | 6.38 | 4.78 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 8 | 3 | 24 | 112 | 22 | 14 | 3 | 38% | 3.0 | 19.6% | 12.5% | 7.1% | 2.7% | 6.38 | 4.64 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | MLB | HOU | 2 | 2 | 11 | 45 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 5.3 | 23.3% | 9.2% | 14.1% | 3.0% | 4.33 | 4.33 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | HOU | 3 | 3 | 20 | 84 | 20 | 8 | 3 | 100% | 6.7 | 23.9% | 8.9% | 15.0% | 3.0% | 4.26 | 4.22 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | HOU | 1 | 1 | 9 | 38 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 100% | 9.0 | 23.9% | 8.9% | 15.0% | 3.0% | 4.26 | 4.22 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 1 | 1 | 9 | 36 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 100% | 8.6 | 23.9% | 8.9% | 15.0% | 3.0% | 4.26 | 3.84 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 32 | 32 | 200 | 844 | 211 | 70 | 23 | 100% | 6.3 | 23.9% | 8.9% | 15.0% | 3.0% | 4.26 | 3.84 | +3.7 | ||
| Career | — | 24 | 13 | 82 | 364 | 51 | 53 | 7 | 54% | 3.4 | 14.1% | 14.5% | -0.4% | 1.9% | 4.70 | 4.81 | +0.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 58 | 32 | 200 | 884 | 124 | 128 | 17 | 54% | 3.4 | 14.1% | 14.5% | -0.4% | 1.9% | 4.70 | 4.81 | +1.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Elvis Garcia (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.33 | 23.3% | 9.2% | 3.0% | — | 4.22 | 23.9% | 15.0% | 20 | -0.11 | — | — | — |
| Hunter Gregory R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.98 | 21.2% | 8.7% | 2.9% | .374 | 4.64 | 20.5% | 7.6% | 188 | +0.66 | 3.18 | 234 | 85 |
| Casey Legumina R 2027 · 4.28 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.28 | 23.3% | 9.3% | 3.6% | .260 | 4.34 | 20.5% | 11.0% | 189 | +0.06 | 3.68 | 323 | 85 |
| Rico Garcia R 2026 · 3.21 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.21 | 18.8% | 7.0% | 1.5% | .316 | 3.82 | 19.8% | 11.5% | 296 | +0.61 | 3.21 | 566 | 80 |
| Michael Knorr R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.03 | 23.6% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .312 | 5.16 | 22.3% | 9.9% | 93 | +1.13 | 4.03 | 152 | 80 |
| Colin Fields R 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.48 | 20.5% | 10.3% | 1.5% | .246 | 4.20 | 21.6% | 12.8% | 184 | +0.72 | 3.07 | 229 | 79 |
| Brett Gillis R 2028 · 3.37 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.37 | 20.3% | 8.8% | 1.6% | .278 | 5.10 | 15.8% | 6.7% | 73 | +1.73 | 3.37 | 119 | 79 |
| Ray Gaither R 2027 · 4.91 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.91 | 21.9% | 13.2% | 3.6% | .314 | 4.49 | 18.6% | 4.7% | 123 | -0.42 | 4.16 | 164 | 79 |
| Andrew Quezada R 2027 · 4.35 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.35 | 18.1% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .312 | 4.78 | 14.6% | 6.1% | 291 | +0.43 | 4.25 | 412 | 78 |
| Nathanael Santiago R 2028 · 3.47 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.47 | 20.3% | 11.4% | 1.2% | .286 | 3.51 | 23.2% | 10.9% | 71 | +0.04 | 2.45 | 138 | 77 |
| Ricky Castro R 2027 · 3.93 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.93 | 20.4% | 8.6% | 2.7% | .287 | 4.58 | 19.4% | 11.0% | 140 | +0.65 | 3.90 | 202 | 77 |
| Blair Henley R 2027 · 4.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.80 | 20.8% | 12.2% | 3.5% | .450 | 4.58 | 17.9% | 4.8% | 170 | -0.22 | 3.80 | 187 | 77 |
| Keith Rogalla R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.55 | 21.2% | 11.7% | 1.4% | .344 | 3.62 | 18.0% | 5.9% | 65 | +0.07 | 3.00 | 113 | 77 |
| Mitch Neunborn R 2029 · 3.92 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.92 | 24.5% | 9.5% | 3.1% | .232 | 5.11 | 17.5% | 6.2% | 190 | +1.19 | 3.92 | 233 | 76 |
| Clay Chandler R 2026 · 4.97 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.97 | 18.3% | 6.0% | 4.8% | .319 | 5.05 | 14.8% | 8.8% | 293 | +0.08 | 4.82 | 328 | 76 |
| Noah Skirrow R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.34 | 18.4% | 11.5% | 2.4% | .306 | 4.68 | 16.2% | 5.7% | 316 | +0.34 | 3.90 | 371 | 76 |
| Orlando Rodriguez R 2028 · 4.76 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.76 | 20.8% | 10.1% | 3.9% | .380 | 4.51 | 19.3% | 7.9% | 101 | -0.25 | 4.50 | 119 | 75 |
| Noah Denoyer R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.45 | 21.5% | 12.1% | 3.0% | .275 | 4.09 | 25.9% | 14.9% | 121 | -0.36 | 3.05 | 181 | 75 |
| Ryan Jennings R 2027 · 3.29 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.29 | 23.4% | 11.9% | 1.2% | .316 | 4.60 | 23.0% | 9.5% | 109 | +1.31 | 3.29 | 142 | 75 |
| Travis Herrin R 2025 · 4.21 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.21 | 21.1% | 7.3% | 3.6% | .315 | 5.04 | 17.6% | 5.2% | 106 | +0.83 | 4.21 | 236 | 75 |
| Mason McGwire R 2025 · 3.50 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.50 | 23.5% | 10.9% | 1.8% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 128 | 74 |