Ronald Rosario — OGILVIE

Ronald RosarioC Portland Sea Dogs

Age 23 R/R 5'11" / 175 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.8 · 2030

wRC+†49

AVG/OBP/SLG.197 / .252 / .298

PA320

HR6

K%30

BB%6

MLB%2%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

35→35

PWR

40→40

SPD

45→45

EYE

40→40

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.8peak

2030

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Arb-1	$0.8M	+0.7	$3M	+$2M
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+0.8	$4M	+$3M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+0.7	$3M	+$2M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$2M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$0.7M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.8M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$7M	—	—	—
Totals		$12M		$14M	+$2M

Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	18	ROK	DSL BOS Blue	20	18	6	1	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	.333	.400	.389	.789	.056	.353	5	10	.408	170	+2	+0	+0	+0	+1	0.3
2022	19	ROK	FCL Red Sox	51	44	7	1	0	0	4	16	3	0	0	.159	.275	.182	.456	.023	.250	31	8	.216	24	-4	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.2
2023	20	A+	2 teams	319	288	56	13	2	3	22	131	4	1	0	.194	.261	.285	.546	.090	.333	41	7	.248	48	-19	+0	+0	+6	+9	-0.4
2024	21	A+	Greenville Drive	427	402	78	14	1	6	20	111	2	2	1	.194	.236	.279	.514	.085	.250	26	5	.230	34	-32	+0	+0	+8	+12	-1.2
2025	22	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	402	369	66	8	0	9	22	124	6	5	3	.179	.237	.274	.510	.095	.238	31	5	.222	28	-33	-0	+0	+7	+11	-1.5
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	23	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	47	45	9	2	0	1	2	13	0	0	0	.200	.234	.311	.545	.111	.258	28	4	.249	49	-3	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.1
ROS	23	MLB	BOS	273	253	51	9	1	5	16	82	2	2	1	.202	.255	.304	.559	.103	.269	30	6	.250	49	-16	+0	+0	+5	+8	-0.3
TOT	23	MLB	BOS	320	298	60	11	1	6	18	95	2	2	1	.201	.252	.305	.557	.104	.273	30	6	.250	49	-18	+0	+0	+6	+9	-0.4
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	24	MLB 11%	BOS	458	421	88	16	1	10	30	121	4	5	2	.209	.268	.323	.591	.114	.267	26	7	.267	62	-20	+0	+0	+8	+13	0.2
2028	25	MLB 26%	BOS	489	448	95	17	1	11	34	127	4	6	2	.212	.274	.328	.602	.116	.270	26	7	.274	68	-18	+0	+0	+9	+14	0.5
2029	26	MLB 44%	BOS	507	462	100	18	2	12	36	131	4	6	2	.216	.279	.342	.621	.126	.272	26	7	.278	71	-17	+0	+0	+9	+14	0.7
2030	27	MLB 59%	BOS	513	466	101	18	2	12	37	133	5	6	2	.217	.281	.341	.623	.124	.272	26	7	.280	72	-16	+0	+0	+9	+15	0.8
2031	28	MLB 69%	BOS	513	466	99	18	1	12	38	134	4	6	2	.212	.278	.333	.610	.120	.272	26	7	.278	71	-17	+0	-1	+9	+15	0.7
2032	29	MLB 77%	BOS	506	459	98	18	1	12	38	133	4	6	2	.214	.279	.336	.615	.122	.271	26	8	.276	70	-17	+0	-1	+9	+14	0.5
2033	30	MLB 85%	BOS	497	453	94	17	1	11	37	132	4	5	2	.208	.273	.322	.596	.115	.269	27	7	.273	67	-18	+0	-2	+9	+14	0.3
2034	31	MLB 91%	BOS	469	427	88	16	1	10	35	127	4	4	1	.206	.273	.319	.591	.112	.268	27	7	.269	64	-19	+0	-3	+8	+13	0.0
2035	32	MLB	BOS	438	399	82	15	1	9	32	121	4	2	0	.206	.271	.316	.587	.110	.266	28	7	.265	61	-19	+0	-4	+8	+12	-0.2
2036	33	MLB	BOS	398	363	73	13	1	8	29	112	3	2	0	.201	.266	.309	.574	.107	.265	28	7	.259	57	-19	+0	-4	+7	+11	-0.5
2037	34	MLB	BOS	344	313	62	11	1	6	25	100	3	1	0	.198	.264	.297	.561	.099	.263	29	7	.253	52	-19	+0	-5	+6	+10	-0.8
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			6624	6051	1244	223	17	136	457	1836	60	59	20	.206	.268	.315	.584	.110	.269	28	7	.264	60	-300	+4	-20	+118	+188	-1.0
/ 162G	—			650	594	122	22	2	13	45	180	6	6	2	.205	.269	.315	.583	.109	.269	28	7	.264	60	-29	+0	-2	+12	+18	-0.1

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	18	ROK	DSL BOS Blue	20	16	8	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0	.500	.600	.750	1.350	.250	.500	5	20	.579	301	+5	+0	—	—	+1	0.5
2022	19	ROK	FCL Red Sox	51	41	10	2	0	0	7	11	3	0	0	.244	.392	.293	.685	.049	.333	22	14	.331	112	+1	+0	—	—	+1	0.2
2023	20	A+	Greenville Drive	247	215	56	12	2	3	27	74	2	1	0	.260	.348	.377	.725	.116	.376	30	11	.326	108	+2	+0	—	—	+7	0.9
2023	20	A	Salem Red Sox	72	56	14	5	1	1	12	22	2	0	0	.250	.400	.429	.829	.179	.371	31	17	.365	138	+3	+0	—	—	+2	0.5
2024	21	A+	Greenville Drive	427	390	95	19	1	8	32	82	2	2	1	.244	.304	.359	.663	.115	.287	19	7	.298	86	-7	+0	—	—	+12	0.5
2025	22	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	402	358	72	10	0	11	33	95	6	5	3	.201	.280	.321	.601	.120	.239	24	8	.272	66	-15	-0	—	—	+11	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Ronald Rosario (OGILVIE)	23	35	40	45	40	.197/.252/.298	.101	.271	6	3	30%	6%	50	-0.9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Alex Lavisky 2014 · AA	23	38	43→45	46→30	37	.194/.241/.300	.106	.270	11	3	32%	5%	45	-2.1	.210/.255/.303	.093	.269	10	4	25%	5%	52	-1.6	.203/.246/.281	.078	.250	9	1	22%	5%	38	-0.9
✕Blake Hunt 2022 · AA	23	36	43→50	49→40	40	.184/.244/.291	.107	.270	10	4	35%	7%	44	-2.1	.200/.256/.326	.126	.277	13	4	32%	6%	59	-1.1	.206/.268/.347	.141	.262	15	2	27%	6%	67	-0.3
✕Ramón Rodríguez 2022 · AA	23	43	43→40	47→45	41	.215/.260/.324	.109	.274	11	5	26%	5%	59	-1.1	.223/.275/.317	.094	.260	10	8	18%	6%	63	-0.8	.219/.280/.315	.096	.240	11	8	14%	7%	64	-0.3
✕Juan Zabala 2022 · AA	23	40	43→40	46→50	37	.196/.253/.305	.109	.301	11	7	37%	6%	52	-1.6	.215/.278/.307	.092	.296	9	16	28%	7%	63	-0.9	.203/.265/.285	.083	.283	8	16	30%	7%	48	-0.8
✕Luis Santana 2022 · AA	23	40	42→45	47→50	40	.200/.259/.300	.100	.270	10	10	29%	6%	53	-1.5	.216/.274/.342	.126	.277	14	9	26%	6%	70	-0.3	.207/.266/.330	.122	.258	15	7	25%	5%	61	-0.6
✕Jacob Amaya 2022 · AA	23	40→45	43→45	46→45	47	.201/.269/.310	.110	.259	11	5	26%	8%	59	-1.1	.212/.281/.334	.122	.273	14	6	26%	8%	71	-0.3	.209/.281/.325	.116	.268	12	6	26%	9%	66	-0.5
✕Bryan Holaday 2012 · AA	24	42	41→45	48→40	41	.206/.264/.302	.095	.280	9	7	29%	6%	55	-1.4	.216/.266/.302	.086	.273	7	5	22%	5%	56	-1.3	.217/.286/.341	.124	.252	13	2	19%	7%	71	-0.1
✕Will Banfield 2023 · AA	23	34→36	44→50	46→30	35	.182/.223/.292	.110	.253	12	3	33%	4%	35	-2.8	.199/.237/.329	.130	.273	15	3	32%	4%	50	-1.7	.194/.232/.318	.125	.265	15	1	33%	4%	44	-1.3
✕Jose Gil 2010 · AA	23	41	40→45	44→45	38	.203/.239/.292	.089	.265	7	7	26%	4%	41	-2.3	.219/.268/.340	.121	.272	13	7	24%	5%	67	-0.5	.216/.271/.342	.126	.258	15	6	22%	6%	66	-0.3
✕Jarek Cunningham 2013 · AA	23	37→36	45→50	46→45	36	.189/.242/.316	.127	.267	12	6	33%	5%	50	-1.8	.194/.245/.329	.135	.268	15	7	33%	5%	55	-1.4	.187/.238/.329	.142	.255	16	7	33%	5%	50	-1.2
✕Juan Uriarte 2021 · A	23	38	41→45	48→30	32	.190/.229/.285	.095	.284	9	6	36%	4%	36	-2.7	.195/.244/.278	.083	.290	6	6	33%	4%	40	-2.4	.151/.199/.200	.049	.234	0	0	33%	2%	-2	-1.2
✕Adam Hackenberg 2023 · AA	23	43	42→40	45	40	.210/.268/.307	.097	.285	10	4	29%	6%	59	-1.1	.203/.268/.287	.084	.308	8	6	34%	7%	53	-1.5	.189/.254/.258	.070	.301	7	6	37%	7%	37	-1.4
✕Jeremy Farrell 2010 · A	23	44→38	41→45	44→45	40	.212/.269/.310	.098	.294	9	5	30%	6%	59	-1.1	.227/.287/.338	.111	.311	10	6	29%	6%	75	-0.0	.220/.287/.322	.102	.307	8	5	29%	6%	67	-0.3
✕Jason Lopez 2021 · A	23	40	43→50	46→45	38	.201/.245/.316	.115	.277	11	7	31%	5%	51	-1.7	.194/.256/.297	.103	.298	10	10	36%	7%	51	-1.7	.164/.230/.255	.092	.249	10	10	37%	8%	27	-0.8
✕Glenn Santiago 2023 · A	22	41	41→40	46→45	40	.203/.258/.301	.098	.286	8	8	31%	6%	52	-1.6	.200/.266/.289	.089	.294	8	9	32%	7%	53	-1.5	.183/.256/.260	.077	.269	7	8	32%	8%	40	-1.1
✕Claudio Finol 2023 · AA	23	39	38→40	49→45	40	.187/.243/.265	.078	.259	5	8	29%	6%	37	-2.7	.205/.266/.297	.092	.292	8	10	31%	7%	55	-1.4	.195/.264/.279	.084	.281	10	12	32%	7%	48	-0.5
✕Brad Davis 2006 · A	23	40	43→50	43→45	37	.202/.244/.310	.108	.283	10	5	32%	5%	49	-1.8	.217/.274/.323	.106	.289	8	4	26%	7%	65	-0.7	.213/.278/.322	.110	.277	8	2	25%	7%	63	-0.4
✕Tyler Grimes 2013 · A	23	38	42→40	47→40	41	.187/.266/.294	.107	.282	9	8	35%	8%	55	-1.4	.206/.282/.301	.095	.307	7	5	33%	7%	63	-0.8	.207/.285/.293	.087	.311	6	2	32%	7%	60	-0.6
✕Jan Vázquez 2015 · AA	24	41	42→40	46→45	39	.206/.262/.303	.097	.286	11	9	31%	6%	55	-1.4	.212/.282/.306	.094	.294	8	8	29%	7%	65	-0.7	.217/.296/.306	.089	.289	8	7	26%	7%	67	-0.2
✕Mike Nickeas 2006 · AA	23	39	43→40	46→40	44	.198/.248/.301	.102	.238	11	6	22%	6%	48	-1.9	.205/.273/.287	.082	.264	6	4	23%	7%	56	-1.3	.223/.289/.303	.080	.267	7	1	18%	8%	63	-0.4

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)