Raúl Rangel P FCL Orioles
Age 23 RHP 6'4" / 200 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.6 · 2028
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 36 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118109vR 100
ERA4.35
FIP4.35
K%22.9%
BB%9.3%
K-BB%13.6%
ROS IP37
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 36 IP
K: +0.0 runs (Runs saved by strikeouts vs lg-avg K%)+0KBB: -0.2 runs (Runs saved by walk suppression vs lg-avg BB%)-0BBCONTACT: -0.6 runs (Runs saved on contact quality (HR suppression) vs lg)-1CONTACTSTAM: +1.5 runs (Replacement credit for innings volume)+2STAMTotal WAR: +0.09 (36 IP)+0.1WAR
0.00.51.00.10.20.20.10.1+$5M ctrl surplus26272829303132333435
projected WAR paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Scouting Grades
K†5560
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2031
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2036
First FA Year   2037
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2026MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.1$0.3M+$0.0M (cut)
2032Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.0M $0.3M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

YearAge LvlTeam GGSIPBF KBBHR GS%IP/G K%BB%K-BB%HR% ERAFIP WAR
202118ROKFCL Orioles Black12936152459475%3.020.1%7.4%12.7%4.1%3.254.58
202118ROKFCL Orioles Black12936152459475%3.029.6%5.9%23.7%2.6%3.252.79
202219MIX2 levels8413641814150%1.628.1%21.9%6.2%1.6%6.234.35
202219MIX2 levels8413641814150%1.628.1%21.9%6.2%1.6%6.234.56
202320MIX2 levels187532393624239%2.910.5%12.3%-1.8%1.1%4.444.38
202320MIX2 levels187532393624239%2.915.1%10.0%5.0%0.8%4.443.59
▸ 2026 Season
202623MLBBAL773715636145100%5.322.9%9.3%13.6%3.0%4.354.35+0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections   WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ
202724MLBBAL773816037145100%5.423.5%8.9%14.5%2.9%4.284.24+0.1
202825MLBBAL773816239145100%5.523.8%8.7%15.1%2.9%4.224.18+0.2
202926MLBBAL663816239145100%6.424.0%8.7%15.3%2.9%4.194.17+0.2
203027MLBBAL663815938145100%6.324.0%8.8%15.2%3.0%4.204.21+0.1
203128MLBBAL663715537145100%6.123.9%9.0%14.9%3.1%4.264.29+0.1
202724MLBBAL3316681662100%5.323.5%8.9%14.5%3.0%4.344.30+0.0
202825MLBBAL44251062593100%6.223.8%8.7%15.1%3.0%4.284.24+0.1
202926MLBBAL553012730114100%6.024.0%8.7%15.3%3.0%4.254.23+0.1
203027MLBBAL553213532124100%6.424.0%8.8%15.2%3.1%4.264.27+0.1
203128MLBBAL663313933124100%5.523.9%9.0%14.9%3.2%4.324.35+0.1
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career23231375771385118100%5.923.9%8.8%15.1%3.1%4.293.90+2.4
/ 200 IP34342008442027526100%5.923.9%8.8%15.1%3.1%4.293.90+3.5
Career382010245574551053%2.716.2%12.0%4.2%2.2%4.254.44+1.1
/ 200 IP75392008951451071953%2.716.2%12.0%4.2%2.2%4.254.44+2.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

Profile at Match Age Next 3 Yrs Career
CompAgeRole FIPK%BB%HR/BFBABIP FIPK%K-BB%IP ΔFIPLow FIPIPMatch
Raúl Rangel (OGILVIE) 4.35 22.9%9.3%3.0% 4.20 23.8%15.0%114 -0.15
Casey Legumina R 2027 · 4.28 FIP 24 SP- 4.28 23.3%9.3%3.6%.260 4.34 20.5%11.0%189 +0.06 3.68 323 89
Hunter Gregory R 2026 · 3.98 FIP 23 SP- 3.98 21.2%8.7%2.9%.374 4.64 20.5%7.6%188 +0.66 3.18 234 85
Colin Fields R 2026 · 3.48 FIP 23 SP- 3.48 20.5%10.3%1.5%.246 4.20 21.6%12.8%184 +0.72 3.07 229 83
Mitch Neunborn R 2029 · 3.92 FIP 26 SP- 3.92 24.5%9.5%3.1%.232 5.11 17.5%6.2%190 +1.19 3.92 233 82
Kyle Zimmer R 2026 · 3.89 FIP 23 SW 3.89 21.8%8.6%2.8%.293 4.63 20.4%9.0%33 +0.74 2.08 276 81
Ray Gaither R 2027 · 4.91 FIP 24 SP- 4.91 21.9%13.2%3.6%.314 4.49 18.6%4.7%123 -0.42 4.16 164 80
John Matthews R 2026 · 4.88 FIP 23 SW 4.88 18.6%10.4%3.7%.351 4.67 15.5%1.6%145 -0.21 4.40 213 79
Evan McKendry R 2026 · 4.24 FIP 23 SW 4.24 18.4%5.5%3.6%.256 5.40 18.7%11.6%324 +1.16 4.14 474 79
Rico Garcia R 2026 · 3.21 FIP 23 SP- 3.21 18.8%7.0%1.5%.316 3.82 19.8%11.5%296 +0.61 3.21 566 79
Patrick Halligan R 2026 · 4.40 FIP 23 SW 4.40 18.8%11.6%2.6%.330 3.82 25.6%15.0%145 -0.58 2.52 275 78
Shohei Tomioka R 2028 · 4.06 FIP 25 SW 4.06 18.9%9.0%2.6%.311 4.48 17.3%3.8%141 +0.42 3.63 281 78
Adam Leverett R 2026 · 5.08 FIP 23 SW 5.08 20.6%9.3%4.6%.338 4.11 13.8%4.8%154 -0.97 3.26 376 78
Michael Knorr R 2026 · 4.03 FIP 23 SP- 4.03 23.6%11.1%2.8%.312 5.16 22.3%9.9%93 +1.13 4.03 152 78
Nathanael Santiago R 2028 · 3.47 FIP 25 SP- 3.47 20.3%11.4%1.2%.286 3.51 23.2%10.9%71 +0.04 2.45 138 78
Noah Skirrow R 2026 · 4.34 FIP 23 SP- 4.34 18.4%11.5%2.4%.306 4.68 16.2%5.7%316 +0.34 3.90 371 78
Clay Chandler R 2026 · 4.97 FIP 23 SP- 4.97 18.3%6.0%4.8%.319 5.05 14.8%8.8%293 +0.08 4.82 328 77
Brett Gillis R 2028 · 3.37 FIP 25 SP- 3.37 20.3%8.8%1.6%.278 5.10 15.8%6.7%73 +1.73 3.37 119 77
J.C. Flowers R 2026 · 3.39 FIP 23 SP- 3.39 21.3%8.7%1.8%.330 4.95 16.5%1.9%184 +1.56 3.39 281 77
Vince Velasquez R 2026 · 3.17 FIP 23 SW 3.17 26.2%9.8%1.9%.290 3.93 25.5%16.5%350 +0.76 3.17 948 77
Mason McGwire R 2025 · 3.50 FIP 22 SP- 3.50 23.5%10.9%1.8%.306 3.50 128 77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

PlayerYrsIP/yrK%BB%HR/9ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION63823.7%8.9%1.154.25
Noé Ramirez ('22)55224.8%9.0%1.334.19
Jacob Barnes ('24)74222.1%9.6%1.214.58
David Hernandez ('19)55425.0%7.9%1.144.10
Shane Greene ('21)75621.4%8.5%1.164.67
Ryan Tepera ('22)74824.7%8.8%1.123.53
Hansel Robles ('22)75925.3%10.1%1.163.86