Raúl Rangel
P
FCL Orioles
Age 23
RHP
6'4" / 200 lbs
ROK
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
peak 0.6 · 2028
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 36 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118109vR 100
ERA4.35
FIP4.35
K%22.9%
BB%9.3%
K-BB%13.6%
ROS IP37
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 36 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | FCL Orioles Black | 12 | 9 | 36 | 152 | 45 | 9 | 4 | 75% | 3.0 | 20.1% | 7.4% | 12.7% | 4.1% | 3.25 | 4.58 | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | FCL Orioles Black | 12 | 9 | 36 | 152 | 45 | 9 | 4 | 75% | 3.0 | 29.6% | 5.9% | 23.7% | 2.6% | 3.25 | 2.79 | — |
| 2022 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 8 | 4 | 13 | 64 | 18 | 14 | 1 | 50% | 1.6 | 28.1% | 21.9% | 6.2% | 1.6% | 6.23 | 4.35 | — |
| 2022 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 8 | 4 | 13 | 64 | 18 | 14 | 1 | 50% | 1.6 | 28.1% | 21.9% | 6.2% | 1.6% | 6.23 | 4.56 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 7 | 53 | 239 | 36 | 24 | 2 | 39% | 2.9 | 10.5% | 12.3% | -1.8% | 1.1% | 4.44 | 4.38 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 7 | 53 | 239 | 36 | 24 | 2 | 39% | 2.9 | 15.1% | 10.0% | 5.0% | 0.8% | 4.44 | 3.59 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | MLB | BAL | 7 | 7 | 37 | 156 | 36 | 14 | 5 | 100% | 5.3 | 22.9% | 9.3% | 13.6% | 3.0% | 4.35 | 4.35 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | BAL | 7 | 7 | 38 | 160 | 37 | 14 | 5 | 100% | 5.4 | 23.5% | 8.9% | 14.5% | 2.9% | 4.28 | 4.24 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | BAL | 7 | 7 | 38 | 162 | 39 | 14 | 5 | 100% | 5.5 | 23.8% | 8.7% | 15.1% | 2.9% | 4.22 | 4.18 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | BAL | 6 | 6 | 38 | 162 | 39 | 14 | 5 | 100% | 6.4 | 24.0% | 8.7% | 15.3% | 2.9% | 4.19 | 4.17 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | BAL | 6 | 6 | 38 | 159 | 38 | 14 | 5 | 100% | 6.3 | 24.0% | 8.8% | 15.2% | 3.0% | 4.20 | 4.21 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | BAL | 6 | 6 | 37 | 155 | 37 | 14 | 5 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.9% | 9.0% | 14.9% | 3.1% | 4.26 | 4.29 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | BAL | 3 | 3 | 16 | 68 | 16 | 6 | 2 | 100% | 5.3 | 23.5% | 8.9% | 14.5% | 3.0% | 4.34 | 4.30 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | BAL | 4 | 4 | 25 | 106 | 25 | 9 | 3 | 100% | 6.2 | 23.8% | 8.7% | 15.1% | 3.0% | 4.28 | 4.24 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | BAL | 5 | 5 | 30 | 127 | 30 | 11 | 4 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.0% | 8.7% | 15.3% | 3.0% | 4.25 | 4.23 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | BAL | 5 | 5 | 32 | 135 | 32 | 12 | 4 | 100% | 6.4 | 24.0% | 8.8% | 15.2% | 3.1% | 4.26 | 4.27 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | BAL | 6 | 6 | 33 | 139 | 33 | 12 | 4 | 100% | 5.5 | 23.9% | 9.0% | 14.9% | 3.2% | 4.32 | 4.35 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 23 | 23 | 137 | 577 | 138 | 51 | 18 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.9% | 8.8% | 15.1% | 3.1% | 4.29 | 3.90 | +2.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 202 | 75 | 26 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.9% | 8.8% | 15.1% | 3.1% | 4.29 | 3.90 | +3.5 | ||
| Career | — | 38 | 20 | 102 | 455 | 74 | 55 | 10 | 53% | 2.7 | 16.2% | 12.0% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 4.25 | 4.44 | +1.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 75 | 39 | 200 | 895 | 145 | 107 | 19 | 53% | 2.7 | 16.2% | 12.0% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 4.25 | 4.44 | +2.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Raúl Rangel (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.35 | 22.9% | 9.3% | 3.0% | — | 4.20 | 23.8% | 15.0% | 114 | -0.15 | — | — | — |
| Casey Legumina R 2027 · 4.28 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.28 | 23.3% | 9.3% | 3.6% | .260 | 4.34 | 20.5% | 11.0% | 189 | +0.06 | 3.68 | 323 | 89 |
| Hunter Gregory R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.98 | 21.2% | 8.7% | 2.9% | .374 | 4.64 | 20.5% | 7.6% | 188 | +0.66 | 3.18 | 234 | 85 |
| Colin Fields R 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.48 | 20.5% | 10.3% | 1.5% | .246 | 4.20 | 21.6% | 12.8% | 184 | +0.72 | 3.07 | 229 | 83 |
| Mitch Neunborn R 2029 · 3.92 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.92 | 24.5% | 9.5% | 3.1% | .232 | 5.11 | 17.5% | 6.2% | 190 | +1.19 | 3.92 | 233 | 82 |
| Kyle Zimmer R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.89 | 21.8% | 8.6% | 2.8% | .293 | 4.63 | 20.4% | 9.0% | 33 | +0.74 | 2.08 | 276 | 81 |
| Ray Gaither R 2027 · 4.91 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.91 | 21.9% | 13.2% | 3.6% | .314 | 4.49 | 18.6% | 4.7% | 123 | -0.42 | 4.16 | 164 | 80 |
| John Matthews R 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.88 | 18.6% | 10.4% | 3.7% | .351 | 4.67 | 15.5% | 1.6% | 145 | -0.21 | 4.40 | 213 | 79 |
| Evan McKendry R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.24 | 18.4% | 5.5% | 3.6% | .256 | 5.40 | 18.7% | 11.6% | 324 | +1.16 | 4.14 | 474 | 79 |
| Rico Garcia R 2026 · 3.21 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.21 | 18.8% | 7.0% | 1.5% | .316 | 3.82 | 19.8% | 11.5% | 296 | +0.61 | 3.21 | 566 | 79 |
| Patrick Halligan R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.40 | 18.8% | 11.6% | 2.6% | .330 | 3.82 | 25.6% | 15.0% | 145 | -0.58 | 2.52 | 275 | 78 |
| Shohei Tomioka R 2028 · 4.06 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.06 | 18.9% | 9.0% | 2.6% | .311 | 4.48 | 17.3% | 3.8% | 141 | +0.42 | 3.63 | 281 | 78 |
| Adam Leverett R 2026 · 5.08 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.08 | 20.6% | 9.3% | 4.6% | .338 | 4.11 | 13.8% | 4.8% | 154 | -0.97 | 3.26 | 376 | 78 |
| Michael Knorr R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.03 | 23.6% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .312 | 5.16 | 22.3% | 9.9% | 93 | +1.13 | 4.03 | 152 | 78 |
| Nathanael Santiago R 2028 · 3.47 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.47 | 20.3% | 11.4% | 1.2% | .286 | 3.51 | 23.2% | 10.9% | 71 | +0.04 | 2.45 | 138 | 78 |
| Noah Skirrow R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.34 | 18.4% | 11.5% | 2.4% | .306 | 4.68 | 16.2% | 5.7% | 316 | +0.34 | 3.90 | 371 | 78 |
| Clay Chandler R 2026 · 4.97 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.97 | 18.3% | 6.0% | 4.8% | .319 | 5.05 | 14.8% | 8.8% | 293 | +0.08 | 4.82 | 328 | 77 |
| Brett Gillis R 2028 · 3.37 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.37 | 20.3% | 8.8% | 1.6% | .278 | 5.10 | 15.8% | 6.7% | 73 | +1.73 | 3.37 | 119 | 77 |
| J.C. Flowers R 2026 · 3.39 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.39 | 21.3% | 8.7% | 1.8% | .330 | 4.95 | 16.5% | 1.9% | 184 | +1.56 | 3.39 | 281 | 77 |
| Vince Velasquez R 2026 · 3.17 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.17 | 26.2% | 9.8% | 1.9% | .290 | 3.93 | 25.5% | 16.5% | 350 | +0.76 | 3.17 | 948 | 77 |
| Mason McGwire R 2025 · 3.50 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.50 | 23.5% | 10.9% | 1.8% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 128 | 77 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 6 | 38 | 23.7% | 8.9% | 1.15 | 4.25 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| David Hernandez ('19) | 5 | 54 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 4.10 |
| Shane Greene ('21) | 7 | 56 | 21.4% | 8.5% | 1.16 | 4.67 |
| Ryan Tepera ('22) | 7 | 48 | 24.7% | 8.8% | 1.12 | 3.53 |
| Hansel Robles ('22) | 7 | 59 | 25.3% | 10.1% | 1.16 | 3.86 |