Carson Montgomery

P Fort Wayne TinCaps

Age 24 RHP 6'1" / 215 lbs A+ peak 0.3 · 2032

Overview

A+PROSPECT

Scout OFP40ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	21	ASD	3	2	7	3.86	4.67	33.3%	20.0%	—	K 33.3% · BB 20.0% · FIP 4.65
2026	23	MIX2 levels	24	23	96	5.36	5.38	19.5%	12.7%	—	K 15.5% · BB 14.5% · FIP 6.22
2027PROJ	24	MLBSD	12	12	67	5.79	5.79	16.2%	14.2%	-0.7
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBSD	6	6	38	5.50	5.40	17.9%	12.5%	-0.2
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBSD	10	10	58	5.32	5.25	18.9%	12.1%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -1.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff50Control45FB velo50

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsJoel Hanrahan (age 25) · Khristian Curtis (age 22) · J.P. Massey (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 143135vR 127

ERA5.79

FIP5.79

K%16.2%

BB%14.2%

K-BB%2.1%

Proj IP67

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 67 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF—50

CTRL—45

K†4050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	21	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	3	2	7	30	10	6	1	67%	2.3	33.3%	20.0%	13.3%	3.3%	3.86	4.65	—
2024	21	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	3	2	7	30	10	6	1	67%	2.3	33.3%	20.0%	13.3%	3.3%	3.86	4.65	—
2024	21	A RAW	Lake Elsinore Storm	3	2	7	30	10	6	1	67%	2.3	33.3%	20.0%	13.3%	3.3%	3.86	4.67	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	23	96	416	81	53	17	96%	4.0	15.5%	14.5%	1.0%	4.7%	5.36	6.22	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	23	96	416	81	53	17	96%	4.0	15.5%	14.5%	1.0%	4.7%	5.36	6.22	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	23	96	416	81	53	17	96%	4.0	19.5%	12.7%	6.7%	4.1%	5.36	5.38	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	SD	12	12	67	283	46	40	10	100%	5.6	16.2%	14.2%	2.1%	3.4%	5.79	5.79	-0.7
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	SD	15	15	87	368	66	46	12	100%	5.8	17.9%	12.5%	5.4%	3.4%	5.50	5.40	-0.5
2029	26	MLB MLE	SD	15	15	87	368	70	45	12	100%	5.8	18.9%	12.1%	6.8%	3.4%	5.32	5.25	-0.3
2030	27	MLB MLE	SD	14	14	86	363	69	43	12	100%	6.1	19.1%	11.9%	7.1%	3.4%	5.25	5.24	-0.3
2031	28	MLB MLE	SD	14	14	83	352	67	42	12	100%	6.0	19.0%	12.0%	7.0%	3.5%	5.27	5.30	-0.4
2032	29	MLB MLE	SD	13	13	80	336	70	38	12	100%	6.1	20.8%	11.4%	9.4%	3.6%	5.20	5.16	-0.2
2033	30	MLB MLE	SD	12	12	75	316	65	37	12	100%	6.2	20.4%	11.7%	8.7%	3.8%	5.28	5.34	-0.4
2028	25	MLB CTX	SD	6	6	38	160	29	20	5	100%	6.3	17.9%	12.5%	5.4%	3.4%	5.50	5.40	-0.2
2029	26	MLB CTX	SD	10	10	58	245	46	30	8	100%	5.8	18.9%	12.1%	6.8%	3.4%	5.32	5.25	-0.2
2030	27	MLB CTX	SD	11	11	66	279	53	33	9	100%	6.0	19.1%	11.9%	7.1%	3.4%	5.25	5.24	-0.3
2031	28	MLB CTX	SD	12	12	70	296	56	35	10	100%	5.8	19.0%	12.0%	7.0%	3.5%	5.27	5.30	-0.3
2032	29	MLB CTX	SD	12	12	70	296	61	34	11	100%	5.8	20.8%	11.4%	9.4%	3.6%	5.20	5.16	-0.2
2033	30	MLB CTX	SD	11	11	67	283	58	33	11	100%	6.1	20.4%	11.7%	8.7%	3.8%	5.28	5.34	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		62	62	369	1557	304	185	55	100%	5.9	19.5%	11.9%	7.6%	3.5%	5.29	4.89	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	165	100	30	100%	6.0	19.5%	11.9%	7.6%	3.5%	5.29	4.89	+0.0
Career	—	MLE		27	25	103	446	75	66	21	93%	3.8	16.7%	14.9%	1.9%	4.6%	5.26	6.11	-2.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		53	49	200	869	145	129	40	93%	3.8	16.7%	14.9%	1.9%	4.6%	5.26	6.11	-0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Carson Montgomery (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.79	16.2%	14.2%	3.4%	—	5.30	18.6%	6.5%	260	-0.49	—	—	—
Joel Hanrahan R 2007 · 5.58 FIP	25	SP	5.58	17.4%	15.4%	3.6%	.318	3.06	27.8%	18.1%	218	-2.52	2.08	397	87
Khristian Curtis R 2024 · 5.48 FIP	22	SP	5.48	18.8%	14.4%	3.9%	.275	4.62	20.6%	8.4%	216	-0.86	4.60	291	85
J.P. Massey R 2024 · 4.72 FIP	24	SP	4.72	16.1%	14.2%	2.1%	.283	5.71	15.5%	-1.3%	46	+0.99	4.72	195	84
Jake Bockenstedt R 2024 · 6.05 FIP	24	SP	6.05	17.0%	13.1%	5.0%	.322	4.35	16.8%	5.4%	126	-1.70	3.74	218	84
J.P. France R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	24	SP-	5.32	17.9%	13.9%	3.6%	.285	4.24	26.3%	15.2%	225	-1.08	4.04	577	83
Jake Peppers R 2024 · 5.02 FIP	22	SP	5.02	15.3%	12.2%	3.0%	.293	5.15	14.8%	-1.3%	89	+0.13	4.83	186	83
Hayden Merda R 2023 · 5.17 FIP	23	SP	5.17	16.1%	15.3%	2.7%	.325	4.59	25.5%	10.9%	108	-0.58	4.20	203	83
Aaron Heilman R 2003 · 5.57 FIP	24	SP	5.57	16.2%	12.4%	4.1%	.311	3.13	22.0%	14.1%	223	-2.44	2.76	630	82
Bryce Osmond R 2023 · 5.56 FIP	22	SP	5.56	18.0%	12.4%	4.4%	.294	7.13	16.7%	3.8%	80	+1.57	5.56	177	82
Will Sanders R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	22	SP	4.95	19.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.297	4.11	20.1%	12.5%	173	-0.84	3.92	266	81
John Maine R 2005 · 6.04 FIP	24	SP-	6.04	13.0%	13.0%	4.3%	.242	4.20	20.9%	11.4%	421	-1.84	3.91	582	81
Bryce Warrecker R 2024 · 5.43 FIP	22	SP	5.43	11.3%	11.7%	3.3%	.271	3.82	20.1%	9.6%	91	-1.61	2.47	154	81
Paxton Schultz R 2022 · 5.27 FIP	24	SP-	5.27	17.5%	12.2%	3.8%	.293	4.31	21.9%	11.8%	274	-0.96	3.83	543	81
Jacob Meador R 2024 · 5.34 FIP	23	SP-	5.34	15.6%	14.0%	3.2%	.301	6.73	14.7%	-6.6%	50	+1.39	5.34	139	80
Connor Staine R 2024 · 4.80 FIP	23	SP	4.80	20.3%	12.6%	3.3%	.266	5.19	16.1%	3.4%	230	+0.39	3.86	414	79
Justin Miller R 2002 · 5.01 FIP	24	SP-	5.01	14.5%	13.6%	2.6%	.280	5.41	12.5%	2.1%	82	+0.40	2.63	373	79
Charlie Morton R 2008 · 4.79 FIP	24	SP	4.79	13.9%	11.3%	2.6%	.285	3.97	14.7%	6.0%	348	-0.82	2.52	2,281	79
Aaron Hernandez R 2021 · 4.65 FIP	24	SP	4.65	20.9%	16.4%	2.2%	.329	5.36	18.8%	5.8%	59	+0.71	4.65	194	79
Jason Savacool R 2024 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	14.9%	14.1%	2.2%	.275	4.88	17.2%	4.6%	128	+0.05	4.26	225	79
Grant Judkins R 2022 · 6.22 FIP	24	SP	6.22	15.8%	13.4%	5.0%	.306	5.53	15.7%	6.6%	207	-0.69	5.13	322	78

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.8	81	18.9%	12.2%	1.35	5.36
Britt Reames ('06)	1.1	73	20.7%	12.0%	1.32	5.28
Lou Sleater ('50-'58, -2 WAR*)	1.5	60	19.6%*	11.2%*	1.30*	5.08*
Seth McClung ('09)	2.2	86	16.2%	13.1%	1.28	5.46
Frank Kreutzer ('62-'69, -1 WAR*)	1.1	70	20.0%*	11.6%*	1.21*	5.31*
Jack O'Connor ('81-'87, -0 WAR*)	1.6	64	18.6%*	11.4%*	1.20*	4.96*
Dustin Nippert ('10)	1.3	67	17.6%	11.2%	1.18	5.31