Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips:
RAW = as recorded ·
CTX = with park/league context ·
A+C = actual + context combined ·
MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park. Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors. WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023
21
MIXMLE
2 levels
6
1
10
41
11
0
0
17%
1.6
26.8%
0.0%
26.8%
0.0%
3.72
0.83
—
2023
21
MIXRAW
2 levels
6
1
10
41
11
0
0
17%
1.6
26.8%
0.0%
26.8%
0.0%
3.72
0.82
—
2024
22
AMLE
Delmarva Shorebirds
25
14
103
425
119
25
7
56%
4.1
20.7%
6.9%
13.8%
2.2%
3.15
3.46
—
2024
22
AMLE
Delmarva Shorebirds
25
14
103
425
119
25
7
56%
4.1
20.7%
6.9%
13.8%
2.2%
3.15
3.46
—
2024
22
ARAW
Delmarva Shorebirds
25
14
103
425
119
25
7
56%
4.1
28.0%
5.9%
22.1%
1.6%
3.15
2.40
—
2025
23
MIXMLE
2 levels
26
18
121
510
152
43
16
69%
4.7
23.6%
9.5%
14.2%
3.1%
3.93
4.00
—
2025
23
MIXMLE
2 levels
26
18
121
510
152
43
16
69%
4.7
23.6%
9.5%
14.2%
3.1%
3.93
4.00
—
2025
23
MIXRAW
2 levels
26
18
121
510
152
43
16
69%
4.7
29.8%
8.4%
21.4%
3.1%
3.93
3.37
—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027
25
MLB
BAL
20
20
141
595
143
48
18
100%
7.0
24.1%
8.1%
16.0%
3.0%
4.11
4.11
+1.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028
26
MLBMLE
BAL
22
22
153
647
156
52
19
100%
7.0
24.1%
8.0%
16.1%
3.0%
4.11
4.10
+1.5
2029
27
MLBMLE
BAL
21
21
151
638
153
51
19
100%
7.2
23.9%
8.0%
15.9%
3.0%
4.14
4.15
+1.3
2030
28
MLBMLE
BAL
21
21
146
619
147
50
19
100%
7.0
23.7%
8.2%
15.5%
3.1%
4.20
4.24
+1.1
2031
29
MLBMLE
BAL
20
20
140
591
138
49
19
100%
7.0
23.4%
8.4%
15.0%
3.3%
4.30
4.37
+0.9
2032
30
MLBMLE
BAL
19
19
132
555
128
48
19
100%
6.9
23.1%
8.7%
14.4%
3.5%
4.45
4.54
+0.5
2033
31
MLBMLE
BAL
17
17
123
518
117
47
19
100%
7.2
22.7%
9.0%
13.7%
3.7%
4.63
4.75
+0.2
2034
32
MLBMLE
BAL
16
16
113
479
106
45
19
100%
7.1
22.2%
9.4%
12.8%
4.0%
4.84
4.97
-0.1
2035
33
MLBMLE
BAL
15
15
104
439
95
43
19
100%
6.9
21.7%
9.9%
11.9%
4.2%
5.07
5.22
-0.4
2028
26
MLBCTX
BAL
9
9
67
283
68
23
9
100%
7.4
24.1%
8.0%
16.1%
3.1%
4.18
4.17
+0.6
2029
27
MLBCTX
BAL
14
14
96
405
97
33
13
100%
6.9
23.9%
8.0%
15.9%
3.2%
4.22
4.23
+0.9
2030
28
MLBCTX
BAL
16
16
111
469
111
38
15
100%
6.9
23.7%
8.2%
15.5%
3.3%
4.28
4.32
+0.9
2031
29
MLBCTX
BAL
16
16
114
481
113
40
17
100%
7.1
23.4%
8.4%
15.0%
3.4%
4.38
4.45
+0.7
2032
30
MLBCTX
BAL
16
16
113
477
110
41
17
100%
7.1
23.1%
8.7%
14.4%
3.6%
4.54
4.63
+0.5
2033
31
MLBCTX
BAL
15
15
109
460
104
42
18
100%
7.3
22.7%
9.0%
13.7%
3.9%
4.72
4.84
+0.2
2034
32
MLBCTX
BAL
15
15
103
435
97
41
18
100%
6.9
22.2%
9.4%
12.8%
4.1%
4.94
5.07
-0.1
2035
33
MLBCTX
BAL
14
14
96
405
88
40
18
100%
6.9
21.7%
9.9%
11.9%
4.4%
5.17
5.32
-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career
—
RAW
114
114
808
3412
787
297
125
100%
7.1
23.1%
8.7%
14.4%
3.7%
4.56
4.26
+6.1
/ 200 IP
—
RAW
28
28
200
844
195
74
31
100%
7.1
23.1%
8.7%
14.4%
3.7%
4.56
4.26
+1.5
Career
—
MLE
57
33
234
976
220
78
25
58%
4.1
22.5%
8.0%
14.5%
2.6%
3.58
3.63
+5.0
/ 200 IP
—
MLE
49
28
200
834
188
66
22
58%
4.1
22.5%
8.0%
14.5%
2.6%
3.58
3.63
+0.9
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.