Cade Horton

P Chicago Cubs

Age 25 RHP 6'1" / 211 lbs MLB Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 2.0 · 2028 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

Overview

MLBSPD6040-MANPre-ArbFA 2033

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX2 levels	9	9	34	4.46	3.80	28.0%	9.1%	—	K 23.4% · BB 8.5% · FIP 4.30
2025	23	MIX2 levels	29	28	147	2.39	3.33	22.3%	7.9%	2.8	K 21.5% · BB 7.7% · FIP 3.42
2026	24	MLBCHC	2	2	7	2.45	4.60	15.4%	7.7%	0.0
2027PROJ	25	MLBCHC	11	11	66	3.71	3.99	23.7%	7.3%	0.7
2028PROJ95% MLB	26	MLBCHC	23	23	137	3.75	3.82	24.9%	7.2%	1.7
2029PROJ95% MLB	27	MLBCHC	23	23	139	3.82	3.86	24.9%	7.3%	1.6

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.9 · Next 3 projected WAR 4.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2032Service0.826First FA2033

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Arb-1$8M2031Arb-2$11M2032Arb-3$13M

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff63Control53Command55FB velo57

CompsDylan DeLucia (age 23) · Brendan Beck (age 24) · Jose Acevedo (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 109101vR 93

ERA3.71

FIP3.99

K%23.7%

BB%7.3%

K-BB%16.5%

Proj IP66

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 66 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$25M ctrl surplus

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—55

STUF6065

CTRL5055

CMD5055

K†5560

CH+1.8 (21%)

FB+1.2 (58%)

SL (12%)

SI (8%)

CU (9%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 0.826 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$3M	+$2M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.7	$13M	+$12M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.6	$11M	+$10M
2030	Arb-1	$8M	+1.5	$10M	+$4M
2031	Arb-2	$11M	+1.1	$6M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-3	$13M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$10M		$45M	+$28M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	21	88	349	117	27	7	100%	4.2	26.0%	8.8%	17.2%	2.2%	2.65	3.22	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	3 levels	21	21	88	349	117	27	7	100%	4.2	33.5%	7.7%	25.8%	2.0%	2.65	2.40	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	9	34	143	40	13	5	100%	3.8	23.4%	8.5%	15.0%	3.8%	4.46	4.30	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	9	34	143	40	13	5	100%	3.8	23.4%	8.5%	15.0%	3.8%	4.46	4.30	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	9	9	34	143	40	13	5	100%	3.8	28.0%	9.1%	18.9%	3.5%	4.46	3.80	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	28	147	584	130	46	12	97%	5.1	21.5%	7.7%	13.8%	2.1%	2.39	3.42	+2.7
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	28	147	584	130	46	12	97%	5.1	21.5%	7.7%	13.8%	2.1%	2.39	3.42	+2.7
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	28	147	584	130	46	12	97%	5.1	22.3%	7.9%	14.4%	2.1%	2.39	3.33	+2.8
2026	24	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	2	2	7	26	4	2	1	100%	3.7	15.4%	7.7%	7.7%	3.8%	2.45	4.89	+0.0
2026	24	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	2	2	7	26	4	2	1	100%	3.7	15.4%	7.7%	7.7%	3.8%	2.45	4.89	+0.0
2026	24	MLB RAW	Chicago Cubs	2	2	7	26	4	2	1	100%	3.7	15.4%	7.7%	7.7%	3.8%	2.45	4.60	+0.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			25	24	125	502	101	35	11	96%	5.0	20.1%	7.0%	13.1%	2.2%	2.66	3.47	+2.2
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	CHC	11	11	66	279	66	20	8	100%	6.0	23.7%	7.3%	16.5%	2.9%	3.71	3.99	+0.7
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	CHC	24	24	144	609	152	44	18	100%	6.0	24.9%	7.2%	17.7%	2.9%	3.81	3.88	+1.8
2029	27	MLB MLE	CHC	24	24	146	617	154	45	18	100%	6.1	24.9%	7.3%	17.6%	3.0%	3.88	3.92	+1.7
2030	28	MLB MLE	CHC	24	24	146	617	153	46	19	100%	6.1	24.8%	7.4%	17.4%	3.1%	3.96	4.01	+1.5
2031	29	MLB MLE	CHC	23	23	140	589	143	45	19	100%	6.1	24.2%	7.7%	16.6%	3.2%	4.08	4.17	+1.2
2032	30	MLB MLE	CHC	22	22	131	554	130	44	19	100%	6.0	23.5%	8.0%	15.6%	3.4%	4.26	4.37	+0.8
2033	31	MLB MLE	CHC	20	20	122	516	118	43	19	100%	6.1	22.8%	8.3%	14.5%	3.6%	4.47	4.60	+0.4
2034	32	MLB MLE	CHC	19	19	113	478	105	42	19	100%	6.0	22.0%	8.7%	13.3%	3.9%	4.70	4.86	+0.1
2035	33	MLB MLE	CHC	17	17	104	438	93	40	18	100%	6.1	21.1%	9.2%	12.0%	4.2%	4.96	5.14	-0.3
2028	26	MLB CTX	CHC	23	23	137	578	144	42	16	100%	6.0	24.9%	7.2%	17.7%	2.8%	3.75	3.82	+1.7
2029	27	MLB CTX	CHC	23	23	139	587	146	43	17	100%	6.0	24.9%	7.3%	17.6%	2.8%	3.82	3.86	+1.6
2030	28	MLB CTX	CHC	23	23	139	587	146	44	17	100%	6.0	24.8%	7.4%	17.4%	2.9%	3.90	3.95	+1.5
2031	29	MLB CTX	CHC	22	22	133	562	136	43	17	100%	6.0	24.2%	7.7%	16.6%	3.1%	4.01	4.10	+1.1
2032	30	MLB CTX	CHC	21	21	125	528	124	42	17	100%	6.0	23.5%	8.0%	15.6%	3.3%	4.19	4.30	+0.8
2033	31	MLB CTX	CHC	19	19	116	490	112	41	17	100%	6.1	22.8%	8.3%	14.5%	3.5%	4.40	4.53	+0.4
2034	32	MLB CTX	CHC	18	18	107	452	99	39	17	100%	5.9	22.0%	8.7%	13.3%	3.7%	4.62	4.78	+0.0
2035	33	MLB CTX	CHC	16	16	99	418	88	38	17	100%	6.2	21.1%	9.2%	12.0%	4.0%	4.87	5.05	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		191	190	1119	4699	1096	367	146	99%	5.9	23.3%	7.8%	15.5%	3.1%	3.98	3.83	+14.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	840	196	66	26	99%	5.9	23.3%	7.8%	15.5%	3.1%	3.98	3.83	+2.6
Career	—	MLE		61	60	277	1102	254	89	26	98%	4.5	23.0%	8.1%	14.9%	2.4%	2.73	3.50	+9.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		44	43	200	796	183	65	19	98%	4.5	23.0%	8.1%	14.9%	2.4%	2.73	3.50	+1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Cade Horton (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.99	23.7%	7.3%	2.9%	—	3.94	24.9%	17.6%	436	-0.05	—	—	—
Dylan DeLucia R 2024 · 3.88 FIP	23	SP	3.88	21.6%	7.4%	3.0%	.241	5.29	18.0%	7.2%	197	+1.41	3.88	232	78
Brendan Beck R 2023 · 3.19 FIP	24	SP	3.19	22.5%	6.7%	2.1%	.289	3.67	22.0%	14.9%	279	+0.48	3.19	310	73
Jose Acevedo R 2003 · 3.43 FIP	25	SP-	3.43	22.3%	4.9%	2.9%	.194	4.85	14.9%	9.8%	222	+1.42	3.43	368	72
Matt Wise R 2001 · 4.98 FIP	25	SP-	4.98	23.7%	8.1%	5.2%	.271	3.50	13.5%	7.2%	53	-1.48	3.33	302	70
Javi Rivera R 2024 · 2.81 FIP	24	SP	2.81	21.7%	8.4%	0.9%	.293	7.67	14.1%	1.7%	88	+4.86	2.81	274	69
James McDonald R 2010 · 2.99 FIP	25	SP-	2.99	22.2%	7.8%	1.4%	.314	4.36	19.8%	10.2%	372	+1.37	2.99	506	69
Shohei Ohtani R 2018 · 3.43 FIP	24	SP	3.43	29.9%	10.4%	2.8%	.267	3.14	29.3%	21.4%	130	-0.29	1.76	613	69
Jared Karros R 2024 · 3.36 FIP	23	SP	3.36	21.9%	9.2%	1.7%	.281	7.71	12.4%	2.7%	52	+4.35	3.36	191	69
Ryan Jennings R 2024 · 3.60 FIP	25	SP	3.60	20.4%	10.4%	1.7%	.286	4.93	25.0%	10.3%	58	+1.33	3.43	142	68
Peter Van Loon R 2024 · 3.27 FIP	25	SP	3.27	25.5%	11.9%	1.5%	.303	4.20	21.0%	10.9%	53	+0.93	2.51	256	67
Landon Knack R 2022 · 4.38 FIP	25	SP	4.38	23.0%	10.5%	3.4%	.335	4.41	21.2%	12.3%	382	+0.03	3.64	556	67
Shane Greene R 2014 · 3.37 FIP	25	SP	3.37	23.5%	8.4%	2.2%	.322	3.82	19.0%	10.9%	247	+0.45	2.86	563	67
River Ryan R 2024 · 3.18 FIP	25	SP	3.18	23.4%	9.8%	1.5%	.280	2.44	22.7%	18.1%	41	-0.74	2.44	223	67
Clarke Schmidt R 2021 · 3.81 FIP	25	SP	3.81	25.4%	7.6%	3.5%	.313	3.40	23.9%	16.4%	335	-0.41	2.77	537	66
Hunter Dollander R 2022 · 3.92 FIP	25	SP-	3.92	19.2%	5.7%	3.1%	.311	6.77	17.6%	-0.7%	51	+2.85	3.92	106	66
Ramon Ramirez R 2008 · 4.31 FIP	25	SP-	4.31	20.0%	10.5%	2.9%	.200	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	182	66
Drew McDaniel R 2024 · 4.24 FIP	23	SP	4.24	19.4%	8.4%	3.1%	.307	5.65	18.3%	7.2%	91	+1.41	4.24	230	66
Jimmy Nelson R 2014 · 3.33 FIP	25	SP	3.33	18.3%	6.1%	1.8%	.332	3.69	21.4%	13.0%	532	+0.36	1.32	720	65
Ryan Watson R 2024 · 4.15 FIP	25	SP-	4.15	18.6%	4.9%	3.7%	.342	5.48	13.1%	5.4%	98	+1.33	4.15	165	65
Blake Burkhalter R 2024 · 3.35 FIP	23	SP	3.35	17.3%	6.5%	1.6%	.317	3.55	18.1%	7.9%	133	+0.20	3.25	202	65

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.2	125	23.4%	7.8%	1.24	4.03
Frankie Montas ('25)	3.9	98	23.6%	8.2%	1.20	4.20
Kenta Maeda ('25)	4.9	123	25.8%	7.0%	1.30	4.20
Marco Estrada ('19)	6.3	139	21.0%	7.6%	1.43	4.29
Mickey Harris ('40-'52, 8 WAR*)	5.2	117	23.2%*	8.1%*	1.19*	4.34*
Nels Potter ('36-'49, 18 WAR*)	8.4	153	21.4%*	7.3%*	1.34*	4.29*
Carl Fischer ('30-'37, 7 WAR*)	4.1	118	23.9%*	9.4%*	1.18*	4.43*