Ben Joyce
P
Los Angeles Angels
+0.3
WAR
INJURED · Injured 15-Day (D15)
Age 25
RHP
6'5" / 225 lbs
MLB
Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2029
peak 0.6 · 2027
ERA3.32
FIP4.14
xFIP6.21
SIERA5.87
K%24.3%
BB%10.1%
K-BB%14.2%
IP44
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.6peak
2027
K†7070
FB Velo
p90102.1
Whiff%
p7429.0%
K%
p5523.2%
xwOBA vs
p790.284
SL (3%)
SI (43%)
FB-2.2 (49%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 21 | AA | Rocket City Trash Pandas | 13 | 0 | 13 | 57 | 20 | 4 | 0 | 28.4% | 7.7% | 0.0% | 2.08 | 1.68 | +0.5 |
| 2023 | 22 | MLB | Los Angeles Angels | 28 | 0 | 28 | 125 | 36 | 23 | 2 | 27.8% | 20.4% | 1.8% | 4.55 | 4.32 | +0.2 |
| 2024 | 23 | MLB | Los Angeles Angels | 49 | 1 | 54 | 221 | 67 | 25 | 3 | 27.4% | 11.8% | 1.6% | 2.85 | 3.15 | +1.1 |
| 2025 | 24 | MLB | Los Angeles Angels | 5 | 0 | 4 | 20 | 1 | 1 | 1 | — | — | — | 6.23 | — | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | LAA | 22 | — | 22 | 93 | 28 | 9 | 2 | 30.0% | 10.1% | 2.6% | 3.23 | 3.63 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | LAA | 44 | — | 44 | 187 | 55 | 19 | 5 | 29.6% | 10.0% | 2.6% | 3.53 | 3.68 | +0.6 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | LAA | 44 | — | 44 | 185 | 54 | 18 | 5 | 29.1% | 10.0% | 2.6% | 3.67 | 3.74 | +0.6 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | LAA | 43 | — | 43 | 182 | 53 | 18 | 5 | 28.8% | 10.0% | 2.7% | 3.75 | 3.79 | +0.6 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | LAA | 42 | — | 42 | 178 | 50 | 18 | 5 | 28.2% | 10.0% | 2.7% | 3.83 | 3.88 | +0.5 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | LAA | 41 | — | 41 | 173 | 48 | 18 | 5 | 27.6% | 10.1% | 2.8% | 3.92 | 3.97 | +0.5 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | LAA | 40 | — | 40 | 167 | 45 | 17 | 5 | 27.0% | 10.3% | 2.9% | 4.01 | 4.08 | +0.4 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | LAA | 38 | — | 38 | 160 | 42 | 17 | 5 | 26.4% | 10.4% | 3.0% | 4.12 | 4.19 | +0.3 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | LAA | 36 | — | 36 | 153 | 39 | 16 | 5 | 25.8% | 10.6% | 3.0% | 4.24 | 4.32 | +0.3 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB | LAA | 34 | — | 34 | 145 | 36 | 16 | 5 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | 4.37 | 4.46 | +0.2 |
| 2036 | 35 | MLB | LAA | 32 | — | 32 | 137 | 33 | 15 | 4 | 24.3% | 11.0% | 3.3% | 4.52 | 4.61 | +0.1 |
| 2037 | 36 | MLB | LAA | 30 | — | 30 | 128 | 30 | 14 | 4 | 23.5% | 11.3% | 3.4% | 4.67 | 4.78 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 95 | 1 | 99 | 423 | 112 | 57 | 7 | 26.6% | 13.5% | 1.6% | 3.38 | 3.43 | +2.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 193 | 2 | 200 | 857 | 227 | 116 | 14 | 26.6% | 13.5% | 1.6% | 3.38 | 3.43 | +4.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ben Joyce (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.63 | 30.0% | 10.1% | 2.6% | — | 3.74 | 29.2% | 19.2% | 131 | +0.11 | — | — | — |
| Shohei Ohtani R 2025 · 3.46 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.46 | 29.9% | 10.4% | 2.9% | .267 | 3.11 | 29.3% | 21.4% | 130 | -0.35 | 1.69 | 545 | 75 |
| David Morgan R 2026 · 3.37 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.37 | 25.9% | 11.4% | 1.8% | .265 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.37 | 148 | 73 |
| Daniel Palencia R 2026 · 2.91 FIP | 25 | SW | 2.91 | 28.4% | 7.0% | 2.4% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.91 | 280 | 71 |
| Trey Wingenter R 2026 · 3.19 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.19 | 33.0% | 12.8% | 2.3% | .257 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.81 | 293 | 70 |
| Keone Kela R 2026 · 2.83 FIP | 25 | SW | 2.83 | 31.1% | 8.0% | 2.5% | .266 | 3.43 | 27.7% | 18.5% | 30 | +0.60 | 2.55 | 246 | 70 |
| Ty Buttrey R 2026 · 2.43 FIP | 25 | SW | 2.43 | 30.5% | 7.7% | 1.7% | .316 | 3.43 | 24.2% | 17.4% | 99 | +1.00 | 2.43 | 522 | 70 |
| Bruce Rondón R 2026 · 3.30 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.30 | 29.0% | 10.0% | 2.5% | .284 | 3.39 | 25.1% | 10.5% | 82 | +0.09 | 3.30 | 184 | 70 |
| James Norwood R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.34 | 29.7% | 12.7% | 3.9% | .256 | 2.84 | 29.1% | 17.4% | 82 | -1.50 | 2.27 | 349 | 69 |
| Ken Giles R 2026 · 2.66 FIP | 25 | SW | 2.66 | 35.7% | 8.4% | 2.8% | .342 | 2.35 | 33.0% | 26.3% | 166 | -0.31 | 1.95 | 368 | 69 |
| Kevin Ginkel R 2026 · 2.98 FIP | 25 | SW | 2.98 | 35.4% | 10.0% | 2.9% | .255 | 3.56 | 26.2% | 15.9% | 104 | +0.58 | 2.37 | 393 | 69 |
| Trevor Megill R 2026 · 3.31 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.31 | 28.4% | 9.1% | 2.7% | .408 | 3.77 | 25.8% | 17.6% | 83 | +0.46 | 2.18 | 330 | 68 |
| Theo Denlinger R 2026 · 2.90 FIP | 25 | SU | 2.90 | 33.2% | 10.2% | 2.4% | .346 | 4.44 | 19.7% | 8.5% | 125 | +1.54 | 2.90 | 140 | 68 |
| Kyle Keller R 2026 · 2.97 FIP | 25 | SU | 2.97 | 28.7% | 9.3% | 2.0% | .294 | 4.25 | 28.4% | 18.6% | 106 | +1.28 | 2.73 | 264 | 68 |
| José Cisnero R 2028 · 4.50 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.50 | 26.1% | 11.7% | 3.9% | .367 | 3.92 | 24.5% | 13.3% | 75 | -0.58 | 2.26 | 279 | 67 |
| Ben Heller R 2026 · 2.93 FIP | 25 | SW | 2.93 | 32.4% | 9.4% | 2.5% | .243 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.49 | 246 | 67 |
| Colten Brewer R 2026 · 2.53 FIP | 25 | SU | 2.53 | 28.6% | 7.6% | 1.6% | .325 | 4.77 | 20.0% | 7.4% | 109 | +2.24 | 2.53 | 526 | 67 |
| Justin Grimm R 2027 · 2.87 FIP | 26 | SU | 2.87 | 32.8% | 12.3% | 1.8% | .250 | 4.09 | 26.1% | 15.2% | 157 | +1.22 | 2.87 | 335 | 67 |
| Orion Kerkering R 2025 · 3.30 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.30 | 24.4% | 9.0% | 2.0% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.89 | 165 | 66 |
| Zac Leigh R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.82 | 28.1% | 11.7% | 2.9% | .282 | 4.76 | 19.3% | 1.3% | 95 | +0.94 | 3.72 | 164 | 66 |
| Dan Winkler R 2028 · 2.74 FIP | 27 | SU | 2.74 | 34.0% | 11.3% | 2.0% | .214 | 3.84 | 24.0% | 12.5% | 131 | +1.10 | 2.47 | 231 | 66 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2
MLB Debut 2023
Service 2.436 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2029
First FA Year 2027
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.4M |
| 2027 | Arb-2 | $2M | +0.6 | $2M | +$0.5M |
| 2028 | Arb-3 | $3M | +0.6 | $3M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| 2029 | Arb-4 | $5M | +0.6 | $3M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $8M | $9M | +$0.9M | ||