Grades · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 21 | AA | Rocket City Trash Pandas | 13 | 0 | 13 | 57 | 20 | 4 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.4% | 7.7% | 20.7% | 0.0% | 2.08 | 1.68 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | AA | Rocket City Trash Pandas | 13 | 0 | 13 | 57 | 20 | 4 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 35.1% | 7.0% | 28.1% | 0.0% | 2.08 | 0.95 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 28 | 0 | 28 | 125 | 36 | 23 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.8% | 20.4% | 7.3% | 1.8% | 4.55 | 4.34 | +0.1 |
| 2023 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 28 | 0 | 28 | 125 | 36 | 23 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.8% | 18.4% | 10.4% | 1.6% | 4.55 | 3.93 | +0.2 |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 49 | 1 | 54 | 221 | 67 | 25 | 3 | 2% | 1.1 | 27.4% | 11.8% | 15.6% | 1.6% | 2.85 | 3.17 | +0.9 |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 49 | 1 | 54 | 221 | 67 | 25 | 3 | 2% | 1.1 | 30.3% | 11.3% | 19.0% | 1.4% | 2.85 | 2.73 | +1.1 |
| 2025 | 24 | MLB | Los Angeles Angels | 5 | 0 | 4 | 20 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0% | 0.9 | 5.0% | 5.0% | 0.0% | 5.0% | 6.23 | 6.06 | -0.1 |
| 2025 | 24 | MLB | Los Angeles Angels | 5 | 0 | 4 | 20 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0% | 0.9 | 5.0% | 5.0% | 0.0% | 5.0% | 6.23 | 6.33 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | A | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | 6 | 0 | 6 | 32 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 0% | 0.9 | — | — | — | — | 4.76 | — | — |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | LAA | 41 | 0 | 43 | 181 | 55 | 21 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 30.6% | 11.8% | 18.8% | 2.6% | 3.93 | 3.80 | +0.4 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | LAA | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 30.6% | 11.8% | 18.8% | 2.6% | 3.93 | 3.80 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 25 | MLB | LAA | — | — | 49 | 213 | 63 | 26 | 5 | — | — | 29.8% | 12.4% | 17.4% | 2.2% | 4.03 | 3.36 | +0.7 |
| 2026 FULL | 25 | MLB | LAA | — | — | 1 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 30.6% | 11.8% | 18.8% | 2.6% | 3.93 | 3.42 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | LAA | 61 | 0 | 64 | 270 | 81 | 31 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 30.1% | 11.5% | 18.6% | 2.6% | 3.89 | 3.83 | +0.6 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | LAA | 60 | 0 | 63 | 266 | 79 | 30 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 29.6% | 11.4% | 18.1% | 2.7% | 3.91 | 3.91 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | LAA | 58 | 0 | 61 | 258 | 75 | 30 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 29.2% | 11.5% | 17.7% | 2.8% | 3.98 | 4.01 | +0.4 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | LAA | 27 | 0 | 28 | 118 | 36 | 14 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 30.1% | 11.5% | 18.6% | 2.6% | 3.89 | 3.83 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | LAA | 38 | 0 | 40 | 169 | 50 | 19 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 29.6% | 11.4% | 18.1% | 2.7% | 3.91 | 3.91 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | LAA | 44 | 0 | 46 | 194 | 57 | 22 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 29.2% | 11.5% | 17.7% | 2.8% | 3.98 | 4.01 | +0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 158 | 1 | 165 | 700 | 189 | 80 | 16 | 1% | 1.0 | 27.0% | 11.5% | 15.5% | 2.3% | 3.69 | 3.55 | +3.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 192 | 1 | 200 | 848 | 229 | 97 | 19 | 1% | 1.0 | 27.0% | 11.5% | 15.5% | 2.3% | 3.69 | 3.55 | +4.3 | ||
| Career | — | 101 | 1 | 104 | 455 | 120 | 62 | 7 | 1% | 1.0 | 26.5% | 13.6% | 12.8% | 1.5% | 3.45 | 3.42 | +2.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 194 | 2 | 200 | 872 | 231 | 119 | 13 | 1% | 1.0 | 26.5% | 13.6% | 12.8% | 1.5% | 3.45 | 3.42 | +4.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ben Joyce (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.80 | 30.6% | 11.8% | 2.6% | — | 3.92 | 29.6% | 18.1% | 188 | +0.12 | — | — | — |
| David Morgan R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.58 | 25.9% | 11.4% | 2.2% | .265 | 3.50 | 24.8% | 13.4% | 22 | -0.08 | 3.37 | 170 | 78 |
| James Norwood R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.26 | 29.7% | 12.7% | 3.8% | .256 | 2.79 | 29.1% | 17.4% | 82 | -1.47 | 2.27 | 349 | 76 |
| Bruce Rondón R 2026 · 3.44 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.44 | 29.0% | 10.0% | 2.8% | .284 | 3.40 | 25.1% | 10.5% | 82 | -0.04 | 3.31 | 184 | 75 |
| Daniel Palencia R 2026 · 2.83 FIP | 25 | SU | 2.83 | 28.4% | 7.0% | 2.3% | .291 | 3.28 | 26.8% | 19.8% | 17 | +0.45 | 2.83 | 297 | 73 |
| Trey Wingenter R 2026 · 3.29 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.29 | 33.0% | 12.8% | 2.5% | .257 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.81 | 293 | 73 |
| Brian Ellington R 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.49 | 27.5% | 14.3% | 1.6% | .252 | 5.05 | 24.6% | 9.0% | 97 | +1.56 | 2.75 | 233 | 73 |
| José Fermin R 2025 · 3.43 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.43 | 25.9% | 13.1% | 1.6% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 142 | 73 |
| Keone Kela R 2026 · 2.79 FIP | 25 | SU | 2.79 | 31.1% | 8.0% | 2.4% | .266 | 3.33 | 27.7% | 18.5% | 30 | +0.54 | 2.56 | 246 | 71 |
| Dovydas Neverauskas R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.51 | 25.1% | 12.3% | 3.6% | .281 | 4.64 | 26.5% | 16.4% | 80 | +0.13 | 2.76 | 353 | 71 |
| Trevor Megill R 2026 · 3.37 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.37 | 28.4% | 9.1% | 2.8% | .408 | 3.78 | 25.8% | 17.6% | 83 | +0.41 | 1.21 | 366 | 71 |
| Emilio Pagán R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.28 | 26.2% | 11.5% | 3.5% | .267 | 3.48 | 29.2% | 23.8% | 214 | -0.80 | 2.70 | 698 | 71 |
| Jon Edwards R 2028 · 3.54 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.54 | 31.7% | 13.1% | 2.7% | .264 | 2.30 | 30.3% | 22.6% | 30 | -1.24 | 2.30 | 132 | 70 |
| Cody Carroll R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.77 | 24.2% | 12.7% | 2.0% | .282 | 7.04 | 24.3% | 12.3% | 24 | +3.27 | 3.73 | 311 | 70 |
| José Cisnero R 2028 · 4.40 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.40 | 26.1% | 11.7% | 3.7% | .367 | 4.02 | 24.5% | 13.3% | 75 | -0.38 | 2.28 | 279 | 70 |
| Kevin Ginkel R 2026 · 2.92 FIP | 25 | SU | 2.92 | 35.4% | 10.0% | 2.8% | .255 | 3.55 | 26.2% | 15.9% | 104 | +0.63 | 2.35 | 431 | 69 |
| Kyle Keller R 2026 · 3.02 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.02 | 28.7% | 9.3% | 2.1% | .294 | 4.16 | 28.4% | 18.6% | 106 | +1.14 | 2.67 | 296 | 69 |
| Brooks Kriske R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.52 | 26.1% | 12.2% | 2.0% | .245 | 5.01 | 28.6% | 16.5% | 41 | +1.49 | 3.00 | 246 | 69 |
| Michael Feliz R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.84 | 25.3% | 10.6% | 2.8% | .323 | 3.81 | 28.9% | 19.8% | 107 | -0.03 | 2.82 | 442 | 69 |
| Ken Giles R 2026 · 2.60 FIP | 25 | SU | 2.60 | 35.7% | 8.4% | 2.6% | .342 | 2.37 | 33.0% | 26.3% | 166 | -0.23 | 1.97 | 368 | 69 |
| Orion Kerkering R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.55 | 25.9% | 12.7% | 1.9% | .213 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.92 | 202 | 69 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 58 | 29.8% | 11.6% | 1.03 | 3.93 |
| Cody Allen ('19) | 5 | 59 | 31.3% | 10.2% | 1.19 | 3.51 |
| Lucas Sims ('24) | 6 | 47 | 27.6% | 11.6% | 1.24 | 4.22 |
| Wade Davis ('21) | 6 | 53 | 27.3% | 10.4% | 0.90 | 3.77 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |