Kyle Keller

P Worcester Red Sox

Age 34 RHP 6'4" / 205 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARPROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2020	27	MLBLAA	2	0	2	7.71	4.81	7.7%	15.4%	-0.0
2021	28	MIX2 levels	45	1	52	4.88	4.61	29.6%	10.2%	-0.0	K 28.0% · BB 10.2% · FIP 4.88
2026	33	AAABOS	23	0	31	4.02	4.38	28.1%	15.8%	—	K 24.1% · BB 14.2% · FIP 4.60
2027PROJ	34	MLBBOS	5	0	5	5.10	5.33	23.3%	15.3%	-0.0
2028PROJ6% MLB	35	MLBBOS	2	0	2	5.34	5.57	22.3%	15.2%	-0.0
2029PROJMLE	36	MLBBOS	—	—	0	5.60	5.84	21.4%	15.4%	—

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.0 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2021

K%55

FB Velo50

xwOBA vs28

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsJoe Nelson (age 34) · Jose Manuel Lopez (age 34) · Scott McGough (age 34)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130122vR 114

ERA5.10

FIP5.33

K%23.3%

BB%15.3%

K-BB%8.0%

Proj IP53

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 53 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL2525

CMD4040

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5094.5

Whiff%

p2421.6%

p5523.2%

xwOBA vs

p280.338

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	0	10	52	15	8	1	0%	1.4	28.8%	15.4%	13.5%	1.9%	8.10	3.67	—
2015	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	0	10	52	15	8	1	0%	1.4	28.8%	15.4%	13.5%	1.9%	8.10	3.80	—
2016	23	A MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	29	0	46	191	57	13	4	0%	1.6	22.1%	8.0%	14.1%	2.0%	3.35	3.34	—
2016	23	A RAW	Greensboro Grasshoppers	29	0	46	191	57	13	4	0%	1.6	29.8%	6.8%	23.0%	2.1%	3.35	2.60	—
2017	24	A MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	36	2	67	269	86	21	2	6%	1.9	23.7%	9.2%	14.4%	0.8%	2.28	2.72	—
2017	24	A RAW	Greensboro Grasshoppers	36	2	67	269	86	21	2	6%	1.9	32.0%	7.8%	24.2%	0.7%	2.28	1.86	—
2018	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	44	0	53	214	78	18	3	0%	1.2	28.7%	9.3%	19.3%	2.0%	3.08	2.96	—
2018	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	44	0	53	214	78	18	3	0%	1.2	36.4%	8.4%	28.0%	1.4%	3.08	1.90	—
2019	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	49	0	68	281	88	28	11	0%	1.4	28.7%	9.4%	19.3%	3.6%	4.12	3.83	+0.6
2019	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	49	0	68	281	88	28	11	0%	1.4	31.3%	10.0%	21.4%	3.9%	4.12	3.85	+0.6
2020	27	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	2	0	2	13	1	2	0	0%	1.2	7.7%	15.4%	-7.7%	0.0%	7.71	4.40	+0.0
2020	27	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Angels	2	0	2	13	1	2	0	0%	1.2	7.7%	15.4%	-7.7%	0.0%	7.71	4.81	-0.0
2021	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	1	52	226	67	23	11	2%	1.1	28.0%	10.2%	17.8%	5.2%	4.88	4.88	-0.2
2021	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	1	52	226	67	23	11	2%	1.1	29.6%	10.2%	19.5%	4.9%	4.88	4.61	-0.0
2026	33	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	23	0	31	139	39	22	4	0%	1.4	24.1%	14.2%	9.9%	3.2%	4.02	4.60	—
2026	33	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	23	0	31	139	39	22	4	0%	1.4	24.1%	14.2%	9.9%	3.2%	4.02	4.60	—
2026	33	AAA RAW	Worcester Red Sox	23	0	31	139	39	22	4	0%	1.4	28.1%	15.8%	12.2%	2.9%	4.02	4.38	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			44	0	46	214	48	30	12	0%	1.1	22.4%	14.0%	8.4%	5.6%	5.83	6.34	-1.0
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	34	MLB	BOS	5	0	5	21	5	3	1	0%	1.0	23.3%	15.3%	8.0%	3.4%	5.10	5.33	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	35	MLB MLE	BOS	34	0	36	150	34	23	6	0%	1.0	22.3%	15.2%	7.1%	3.7%	5.34	5.57	-0.4
2029	36	MLB MLE	BOS	25	0	26	111	24	17	5	0%	1.1	21.4%	15.4%	6.0%	4.0%	5.60	5.84	-0.4
2028	35	MLB CTX	BOS	2	0	2	8	2	1	0	0%	1.0	22.3%	15.2%	7.1%	3.7%	5.34	5.57	-0.0
2029	36	MLB CTX	BOS	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.4%	15.4%	6.0%	4.0%	5.60	5.84	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		46	0	48	222	50	31	12	0%	1.0	22.4%	14.1%	8.4%	5.5%	5.81	6.03	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	921	207	128	50	0%	1.1	22.4%	14.1%	8.4%	5.5%	5.81	6.03	-3.4
Career	—	MLE		235	3	328	1385	361	139	37	1%	1.4	26.0%	10.1%	16.0%	2.7%	3.73	3.66	-1.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		143	2	200	844	220	85	23	1%	1.4	26.0%	10.1%	16.0%	2.7%	3.73	3.66	-3.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 31 IPFIP 4.32 → 4.60 (+0.29)K% 28.1% → 24.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.06%	—	×0.860	24.13%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.83%	—	×0.900	14.24%
HR / BF /BF	2.88%	÷1.000	×1.100	3.17%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.32 → 4.60, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 18 IPFIP 1.49 → 1.97 (+0.48)K% 43.7% → 38.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	43.66%	—	×0.880	38.42%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.23%	—	×1.050	4.44%
HR / BF /BF	2.82%	÷1.096	×1.100	2.83%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 119).

Result: FIP 1.49 → 1.97, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAANew Orleans Baby Cakes · 54 IPFIP 3.44 → 3.83 (+0.39)K% 32.6% → 28.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.59%	—	×0.880	28.68%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.93%	—	×1.050	9.38%
HR / BF /BF	3.57%	÷1.100	×1.100	3.57%

Result: FIP 3.44 → 3.83, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 29 IPFIP 2.38 → 3.27 (+0.88)K% 37.1% → 30.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	37.10%	—	×0.810	30.05%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.10%	—	×1.100	13.31%
HR / BF /BF	1.61%	÷1.041	×1.200	1.86%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 108).

Result: FIP 2.38 → 3.27, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 A+Jupiter Hammerheads · 17 IPFIP 1.28 → 2.37 (+1.08)K% 33.8% → 26.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.85%	—	×0.770	26.06%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	1.54%	—	×1.150	1.77%
HR / BF /BF	1.54%	÷0.850	×1.250	2.26%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 70).

Result: FIP 1.28 → 2.37, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAANew Orleans Baby Cakes · 7 IPFIP 0.74 → 1.19 (+0.46)K% 40.0% → 35.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	40.00%	—	×0.880	35.20%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.00%	—	×1.050	8.40%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.952	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 0.74 → 1.19, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AGreensboro Grasshoppers · 67 IPFIP 1.80 → 2.72 (+0.93)K% 32.0% → 23.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.97%	—	×0.740	23.66%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.81%	—	×1.180	9.21%
HR / BF /BF	0.74%	÷1.168	×1.300	0.83%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 134).

Result: FIP 1.80 → 2.72, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AGreensboro Grasshoppers · 46 IPFIP 2.59 → 3.34 (+0.75)K% 29.8% → 22.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.84%	—	×0.740	22.08%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.81%	—	×1.180	8.03%
HR / BF /BF	2.09%	÷1.378	×1.300	1.98%

Result: FIP 2.59 → 3.34, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kyle Keller (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.33	23.3%	15.3%	3.4%	—	5.68	21.9%	6.6%	62	+0.35	—	—	—
Joe Nelson R 2009 · 5.35 FIP	34	SU	5.35	19.8%	14.3%	3.9%	.221	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	139	71
Jose Manuel Lopez R 2019 · 6.14 FIP	34	SU	6.14	17.9%	14.2%	5.0%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	170	70
Scott McGough R 2024 · 4.56 FIP	34	SU	4.56	18.6%	12.2%	2.7%	.289	3.82	20.3%	13.1%	57	-0.74	3.55	429	69
Matt Miller R 2006 · 4.98 FIP	34	SU	4.98	18.5%	13.8%	3.1%	.214	—	—	—	—	—	2.13	101	67
Diego Moreno R 2021 · 4.75 FIP	34	SU	4.75	18.6%	9.4%	3.7%	.232	—	—	—	—	—	2.29	187	66
Jim Miller R 2016 · 5.43 FIP	34	SU	5.43	20.4%	14.1%	4.1%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	3.95	140	66
Austin Adams R 2019 · 5.80 FIP	32	SU	5.80	20.8%	10.6%	5.7%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	162	65
Mark Serrano R 2019 · 5.25 FIP	33	SU	5.25	20.2%	7.9%	5.2%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	120	63
Scott Proctor R 2011 · 6.33 FIP	34	SU	6.33	14.4%	12.9%	5.1%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.68	337	62
Blake Parker R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	34	SU	4.65	25.5%	8.6%	4.8%	.258	4.26	24.9%	15.4%	87	-0.39	2.52	406	60
Matt Bush R 2018 · 4.72 FIP	32	SU	4.72	17.6%	13.0%	2.7%	.278	—	—	—	—	—	2.87	249	58
Rudy Gonzalez R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	34	SW	4.52	13.5%	9.6%	2.4%	.347	3.84	14.0%	6.5%	79	-0.68	3.31	119	58
Jean Machi R 2016 · 4.36 FIP	34	SU	4.36	18.3%	6.6%	3.6%	.282	4.12	18.6%	12.0%	67	-0.24	2.16	306	57
Daniel Guerrero R 2019 · 5.59 FIP	34	SW	5.59	14.7%	11.1%	4.2%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	4.61	269	56
Radhames Liz R 2018 · 4.45 FIP	34	SU	4.45	21.8%	13.9%	2.6%	.343	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	219	56
Spencer Patton R 2022 · 6.26 FIP	34	SU	6.26	25.7%	13.0%	6.7%	.347	4.33	18.9%	9.2%	59	-1.93	2.79	239	56
Ivan Maldonado R 2015 · 4.60 FIP	35	SW	4.60	12.8%	8.7%	2.7%	.269	5.41	6.4%	-3.3%	104	+0.81	4.60	172	55
Hector Navarro R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	35	SU	4.35	15.0%	5.4%	3.3%	.281	3.00	15.2%	9.0%	81	-1.35	2.30	126	55
Francisco Del Rosario R 2017 · 4.15 FIP	36	SU	4.15	16.4%	10.0%	2.1%	.267	6.35	11.9%	-0.6%	77	+2.20	3.93	194	55
Chris Jakubauskas R 2011 · 4.42 FIP	32	SW	4.42	15.7%	7.9%	3.0%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	165	54

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	40	22.5%	15.2%	1.64	5.44
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82
Amir Garrett ('24)	1.7	55	26.7%	13.3%	1.52	4.95
Bill Laxton ('70-'77, -3 WAR*)	1.2	61	26.1%*	14.4%*	1.87*	5.39*
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Jeff Jones ('80-'84, -2 WAR*)	1.0	41	22.0%*	12.4%*	1.48*	4.53*