Tanner Rainey
P
Toledo Mud Hens
+0.1
WAR
Age 33
RHP
6'3" / 245 lbs
AAA
peak 0.2 · 2026
ERA4.52
FIP4.36
xFIP4.60
SIERA5.12
K%23.5%
BB%11.8%
K-BB%11.8%
IP34
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.2peak
2026
STUF5050
CTRL3030
CMD3030
K†6060
FB Velo
p4394.0
Whiff%
p5526.0%
K%
p2819.0%
xwOBA vs
p100.360
SL+1.1 (47%)
FB-1.5 (53%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 22 | ROK | Billings Mustangs | 15 | 15 | 59 | 262 | 57 | 28 | 2 | 14.8% | 13.4% | 1.1% | 4.27 | 4.13 | +0.5 |
| 2016 | 23 | A | Dayton Dragons | 29 | 20 | 103 | 480 | 113 | 66 | 9 | 17.4% | 16.2% | 2.1% | 5.57 | 4.83 | +0.6 |
| 2017 | 24 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | 53 | 0 | 62 | 251 | 104 | 33 | 6 | 32.3% | 14.9% | 2.9% | 3.19 | 3.83 | +0.8 |
| 2018 | 25 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 52 | 0 | 58 | 252 | 72 | 45 | 6 | 27.6% | 17.2% | 1.1% | 5.28 | 3.54 | +0.9 |
| 2019 | 26 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 68 | 0 | 66 | 296 | 106 | 48 | 7 | 34.5% | 16.4% | 2.1% | 3.93 | 3.44 | +1.2 |
| 2020 | 27 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 20 | 0 | 20 | 75 | 32 | 6 | 4 | 42.7% | 8.0% | 5.7% | 2.66 | 3.64 | +0.3 |
| 2021 | 28 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 46 | 1 | 39 | 182 | 57 | 29 | 7 | 27.8% | 15.9% | 4.2% | 6.41 | 5.09 | -0.1 |
| 2022 | 29 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 29 | 0 | 30 | 128 | 36 | 13 | 5 | 28.1% | 10.2% | 3.7% | 3.30 | 4.06 | +0.3 |
| 2023 | 30 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 14 | 3 | 13 | 56 | 14 | 7 | 1 | — | — | — | 3.46 | — | — |
| 2024 | 31 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 50 | 0 | 51 | 231 | 44 | 28 | 8 | 19.0% | 12.1% | 3.0% | 4.76 | 4.68 | +0.2 |
| 2025 | 32 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 49 | 2 | 50 | 216 | 65 | 32 | 1 | 28.1% | 14.3% | 0.7% | 4.47 | 2.93 | +1.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 33 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | 6 | 0 | 7 | 31 | 9 | 6 | 0 | — | — | — | 5.40 | — | — |
| ROS | 33 | MLB | DET | 34 | — | 34 | 142 | 35 | 19 | 4 | 24.9% | 13.1% | 2.8% | 4.76 | 4.59 | +0.1 |
| 2026 Total | 33 | MLB | DET | — | — | 40 | 173 | 44 | 25 | 4 | 25.6% | 14.2% | 2.3% | 4.87 | 3.83 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | DET | 32 | — | 32 | 135 | 33 | 18 | 4 | 24.2% | 13.3% | 2.9% | 4.74 | 4.73 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | DET | 30 | — | 30 | 128 | 30 | 17 | 4 | 23.4% | 13.5% | 3.1% | 4.83 | 4.88 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 36 | MLB | DET | 28 | — | 28 | 119 | 27 | 16 | 4 | 22.7% | 13.7% | 3.2% | 4.96 | 5.05 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 431 | 41 | 559 | 2460 | 622 | 362 | 55 | 25.3% | 14.7% | 2.3% | 4.55 | 4.07 | +7.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 154 | 15 | 200 | 880 | 222 | 129 | 20 | 25.3% | 14.7% | 2.3% | 4.55 | 4.07 | +2.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Tanner Rainey (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.59 | 24.9% | 13.1% | 2.8% | — | 4.88 | 23.5% | 10.0% | 90 | +0.29 | — | — | — |
| Fernando Nieve R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.26 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .290 | 2.44 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.82 | 1.94 | 112 | 83 |
| Greg Holland R 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.53 | 27.0% | 14.5% | 3.4% | .238 | 3.71 | 23.8% | 15.4% | 84 | -0.82 | 1.94 | 268 | 78 |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2026 · 4.47 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.47 | 26.2% | 11.2% | 3.9% | .263 | 3.98 | 18.1% | 6.8% | 51 | -0.49 | 3.98 | 104 | 76 |
| Ryan Cook R 2024 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.85 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 102 | 76 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2025 · 3.63 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.63 | 20.4% | 10.0% | 1.8% | .331 | 6.11 | 17.9% | 3.7% | 41 | +2.48 | 3.45 | 170 | 75 |
| Clayton Mortensen R 2025 · 4.60 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.60 | 23.2% | 14.2% | 3.0% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.33 | 221 | 75 |
| Arcenio Leon R 2025 · 3.52 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.52 | 21.4% | 8.1% | 2.2% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.01 | 115 | 75 |
| Jon Edwards R 2024 · 4.43 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.43 | 25.1% | 11.6% | 3.6% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.39 | 132 | 74 |
| Radhames Liz R 2027 · 4.49 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.49 | 21.8% | 13.9% | 2.7% | .343 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.73 | 110 | 73 |
| Nate Jones R 2025 · 4.08 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.08 | 23.4% | 10.9% | 2.9% | .279 | 5.52 | 21.4% | 13.8% | 38 | +1.44 | 2.61 | 157 | 72 |
| Wade Davis R 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.78 | 20.4% | 14.1% | 2.9% | .344 | 5.06 | 20.0% | 10.0% | 43 | +0.28 | 2.00 | 320 | 72 |
| Rafael Dolis R 2026 · 3.44 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.44 | 24.6% | 15.0% | 0.9% | .309 | 3.60 | 19.9% | 8.0% | 29 | +0.16 | 2.80 | 162 | 72 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2028 · 3.50 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.50 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 2.6% | .290 | 3.90 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 161 | +0.40 | 3.50 | 219 | 71 |
| Jumbo Diaz R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.18 | 20.0% | 9.7% | 2.8% | .302 | 2.90 | 24.2% | 15.4% | 98 | -1.28 | 2.80 | 284 | 71 |
| Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2025 · 3.65 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.65 | 22.7% | 10.4% | 2.1% | .255 | 4.50 | 24.1% | 13.8% | 97 | +0.85 | 3.38 | 212 | 70 |
| Huascar Brazobán R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 33 | SW | 3.46 | 25.3% | 11.3% | 1.9% | .304 | 3.46 | 22.4% | 12.4% | 128 | +0.00 | 3.08 | 303 | 70 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2026 · 4.98 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.98 | 23.4% | 10.7% | 4.6% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 122 | 70 |
| Jake Petricka R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.57 | 19.1% | 8.0% | 3.8% | .340 | 3.19 | 18.3% | 10.4% | 24 | -1.38 | 3.04 | 252 | 69 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.83 | 18.0% | 8.0% | 4.1% | .286 | 3.13 | 23.7% | 17.9% | 150 | -1.70 | 2.31 | 403 | 69 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2025 · 3.80 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.80 | 19.6% | 12.2% | 1.5% | .303 | 4.09 | 15.0% | 8.6% | 35 | +0.29 | 3.80 | 132 | 69 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.