Tanner Rainey
P
Toledo Mud Hens
Age 33
RHP
6'3" / 245 lbs
AAA
2026 ROS PROJECTION35 act + 57 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128119vR 110
ERA4.75
FIP4.83
K%24.1%
BB%14.3%
K-BB%9.8%
ROS IP57
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 92 IP
Grades · Arsenal · Contract
SL+1.1 (47%)
FB-1.5 (53%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 22 | ROK | Billings Mustangs | 15 | 15 | 59 | 262 | 57 | 28 | 2 | 100% | 3.9 | 14.8% | 13.4% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 4.27 | 4.13 | — |
| 2015 | 22 | ROK | Billings Mustangs | 15 | 15 | 59 | 262 | 57 | 28 | 2 | 100% | 3.9 | 21.8% | 10.7% | 11.1% | 0.8% | 4.27 | 3.03 | — |
| 2016 | 23 | A | Dayton Dragons | 29 | 20 | 103 | 480 | 113 | 66 | 9 | 69% | 3.6 | 17.4% | 16.2% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 5.57 | 4.71 | — |
| 2016 | 23 | A | Dayton Dragons | 29 | 20 | 103 | 480 | 113 | 66 | 9 | 69% | 3.6 | 23.5% | 13.8% | 9.8% | 1.9% | 5.57 | 3.96 | — |
| 2017 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 53 | 0 | 62 | 251 | 104 | 33 | 6 | 0% | 1.2 | 32.3% | 14.9% | 17.4% | 2.8% | 3.19 | 3.82 | — |
| 2017 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 53 | 0 | 62 | 251 | 104 | 33 | 6 | 0% | 1.2 | 41.4% | 13.1% | 28.3% | 2.4% | 3.19 | 2.60 | — |
| 2018 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 52 | 0 | 58 | 252 | 72 | 45 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.6% | 17.2% | 10.4% | 1.1% | 5.28 | 3.55 | +0.7 |
| 2018 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 52 | 0 | 58 | 252 | 72 | 45 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.6% | 17.9% | 10.7% | 2.4% | 5.28 | 4.29 | +0.2 |
| 2019 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 68 | 0 | 66 | 296 | 106 | 48 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 34.5% | 16.4% | 18.1% | 2.4% | 3.93 | 3.60 | +0.8 |
| 2019 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 68 | 0 | 66 | 296 | 106 | 48 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 35.8% | 16.2% | 19.6% | 2.4% | 3.93 | 3.45 | +1.0 |
| 2020 | 27 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 20 | 0 | 20 | 75 | 32 | 6 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 42.7% | 8.0% | 34.7% | 5.3% | 2.66 | 3.44 | +0.3 |
| 2020 | 27 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 20 | 0 | 20 | 75 | 32 | 6 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 42.7% | 8.0% | 34.7% | 5.3% | 2.66 | 3.40 | +0.3 |
| 2021 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 46 | 1 | 39 | 182 | 57 | 29 | 7 | 2% | 0.9 | 27.8% | 15.9% | 11.9% | 4.0% | 6.41 | 4.95 | -0.2 |
| 2021 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 46 | 1 | 39 | 182 | 57 | 29 | 7 | 2% | 0.9 | 31.3% | 15.9% | 15.4% | 3.8% | 6.41 | 4.73 | -0.1 |
| 2022 | 29 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 29 | 0 | 30 | 128 | 36 | 13 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.1% | 10.2% | 18.0% | 3.9% | 3.30 | 4.16 | +0.1 |
| 2022 | 29 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 29 | 0 | 30 | 128 | 36 | 13 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.1% | 10.2% | 18.0% | 3.9% | 3.30 | 4.17 | +0.1 |
| 2023 | 30 | MIX | 5 levels | 14 | 3 | 13 | 56 | 14 | 7 | 1 | 21% | 0.9 | 25.0% | 12.5% | 12.5% | 1.8% | 3.46 | 3.55 | +0.2 |
| 2023 | 30 | MIX | 5 levels | 14 | 3 | 13 | 56 | 14 | 7 | 1 | 21% | 0.9 | 25.0% | 12.5% | 12.5% | 1.8% | 3.46 | 3.56 | +0.2 |
| 2024 | 31 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 50 | 0 | 51 | 231 | 44 | 28 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.0% | 12.1% | 6.9% | 3.5% | 4.76 | 4.93 | -0.2 |
| 2024 | 31 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 50 | 0 | 51 | 231 | 44 | 28 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.0% | 12.1% | 6.9% | 3.5% | 4.76 | 5.06 | -0.3 |
| 2025 | 32 | MIX | 2 levels | 49 | 2 | 50 | 216 | 65 | 32 | 1 | 4% | 1.0 | 28.1% | 14.3% | 13.8% | 0.9% | 4.47 | 3.02 | +0.9 |
| 2025 | 32 | MIX | 2 levels | 49 | 2 | 50 | 216 | 65 | 32 | 1 | 4% | 1.0 | 30.1% | 14.8% | 15.3% | 0.5% | 4.47 | 2.68 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 33 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | 32 | 1 | 35 | 153 | 45 | 25 | 1 | 3% | 1.1 | 25.9% | 17.2% | 8.7% | 0.7% | 2.83 | 3.48 | +0.4 |
| ROS | 33 | MLB | DET | 54 | 0 | 57 | 239 | 58 | 34 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.1% | 14.3% | 9.8% | 2.9% | 4.75 | 4.83 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 33 | MLB | DET | 6 | 0 | 6 | 25 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.1% | 14.3% | 9.8% | 2.9% | 4.75 | 4.83 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 33 | MLB | DET | — | — | 92 | 392 | 103 | 59 | 8 | — | — | 26.2% | 15.1% | 11.1% | 2.0% | 4.02 | 4.32 | +1.0 |
| 2026 FULL | 33 | MLB | DET | — | — | 6 | 24 | 6 | 3 | 1 | — | — | 24.1% | 14.3% | 9.8% | 2.9% | 4.75 | 4.45 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | DET | 49 | 0 | 52 | 218 | 51 | 32 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.2% | 14.8% | 8.4% | 3.2% | 4.98 | 5.13 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | DET | 44 | 0 | 46 | 195 | 43 | 30 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.2% | 15.3% | 6.9% | 3.5% | 5.27 | 5.47 | -0.5 |
| 2029 | 36 | MLB | DET | 39 | 0 | 41 | 173 | 37 | 28 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.2% | 15.9% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 5.61 | 5.84 | -0.6 |
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | DET | 3 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.2% | 14.8% | 8.4% | 3.2% | 4.98 | 5.13 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | DET | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 22.2% | 15.3% | 6.9% | 3.5% | 5.27 | 5.47 | — |
| 2029 | 36 | MLB | DET | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 21.2% | 15.9% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 5.61 | 5.84 | — |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 220 | 0 | 208 | 934 | 256 | 133 | 34 | 0% | 0.9 | 27.4% | 14.3% | 13.1% | 3.7% | 5.49 | 4.60 | +1.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 211 | 0 | 200 | 898 | 246 | 128 | 33 | 0% | 0.9 | 27.4% | 14.3% | 13.1% | 3.7% | 5.49 | 4.60 | +1.9 | ||
| Career | — | 457 | 42 | 588 | 2582 | 652 | 382 | 57 | 9% | 1.3 | 25.3% | 14.8% | 10.5% | 2.2% | 4.44 | 4.06 | +9.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 156 | 14 | 200 | 879 | 222 | 130 | 19 | 9% | 1.3 | 25.3% | 14.8% | 10.5% | 2.2% | 4.44 | 4.06 | +3.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Tanner Rainey (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.83 | 24.1% | 14.3% | 2.9% | — | 5.45 | 22.3% | 7.0% | 139 | +0.62 | — | — | — |
| Fernando Nieve R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .290 | 2.37 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.80 | 2.08 | 112 | 81 |
| Clayton Mortensen R 2025 · 4.62 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.62 | 23.2% | 14.2% | 3.1% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.23 | 221 | 79 |
| Greg Holland R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.38 | 27.0% | 14.5% | 3.1% | .238 | 3.77 | 23.8% | 15.4% | 84 | -0.61 | 1.97 | 268 | 77 |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.40 | 26.2% | 11.2% | 3.8% | .263 | 3.99 | 18.1% | 6.8% | 51 | -0.41 | 3.99 | 104 | 76 |
| Ryan Cook R 2024 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 102 | 75 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2025 · 3.77 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.77 | 20.4% | 10.0% | 2.1% | .331 | 5.83 | 17.9% | 3.7% | 41 | +2.06 | 3.37 | 170 | 74 |
| Wade Davis R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.59 | 20.4% | 14.1% | 2.6% | .344 | 5.15 | 20.0% | 10.0% | 43 | +0.56 | 2.00 | 320 | 73 |
| Radhames Liz R 2027 · 4.31 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.31 | 21.8% | 13.9% | 2.3% | .343 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.77 | 110 | 73 |
| Jon Edwards R 2024 · 4.46 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.46 | 25.1% | 11.6% | 3.7% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.30 | 132 | 72 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2026 · 4.99 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.99 | 23.4% | 10.7% | 4.6% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.26 | 122 | 70 |
| Nate Jones R 2025 · 4.06 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.06 | 23.4% | 10.9% | 2.8% | .279 | 6.10 | 21.4% | 13.8% | 38 | +2.04 | 2.54 | 157 | 70 |
| Manny Acosta R 2028 · 3.99 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.99 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.3% | .273 | 3.04 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -0.95 | 3.04 | 102 | 69 |
| Jumbo Diaz R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.22 | 20.0% | 9.7% | 2.9% | .302 | 2.90 | 24.2% | 15.4% | 98 | -1.32 | 2.82 | 284 | 68 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2025 · 3.73 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.73 | 19.6% | 12.2% | 1.4% | .303 | 3.95 | 15.0% | 8.6% | 35 | +0.22 | 3.73 | 132 | 68 |
| Miguel Mejia R 2024 · 4.23 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.23 | 15.7% | 10.7% | 2.0% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.46 | 108 | 68 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.24 | 20.5% | 11.5% | 2.6% | .412 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 137 | 68 |
| John Axford R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.81 | 20.8% | 10.0% | 2.2% | .304 | 4.13 | 22.1% | 11.3% | 76 | +0.32 | 3.10 | 197 | 68 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2026 · 4.77 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.77 | 18.0% | 8.0% | 4.0% | .286 | 3.18 | 23.7% | 17.9% | 150 | -1.59 | 2.27 | 426 | 67 |
| Chris Hatcher R 2026 · 5.21 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.21 | 18.0% | 9.6% | 4.4% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.05 | 176 | 67 |
| Jake Sanchez R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.79 | 20.7% | 12.4% | 3.4% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.86 | 361 | 67 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 49 | 22.8% | 15.0% | 1.29 | 5.11 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Michael Kopech ('24) | 4 | 96 | 26.1% | 12.5% | 1.45 | 4.15 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Lucas Sims ('24) | 6 | 47 | 27.6% | 11.6% | 1.24 | 4.22 |