Tanner Rainey — OGILVIE

Tanner Rainey P Toledo Mud Hens

Age 33 RHP 6'3" / 245 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION53 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115107vR 99

ERA4.25

FIP4.30

K%23.9%

BB%13.3%

K-BB%10.7%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 58 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL3030

CMD3030

K†5555

SL+1.1 (47%)

FB-1.5 (53%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	22	ROK MLE	Billings Mustangs	15	15	59	262	57	28	2	100%	3.9	14.8%	13.4%	1.4%	1.1%	4.27	4.13	—
2015	22	ROK RAW	Billings Mustangs	15	15	59	262	57	28	2	100%	3.9	21.8%	10.7%	11.1%	0.8%	4.27	3.03	—
2016	23	A MLE	Dayton Dragons	29	20	103	480	113	66	9	69%	3.6	17.4%	16.2%	1.2%	2.1%	5.57	4.84	—
2016	23	A RAW	Dayton Dragons	29	20	103	480	113	66	9	69%	3.6	23.5%	13.8%	9.8%	1.9%	5.57	3.96	—
2017	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	53	0	62	251	104	33	6	0%	1.2	32.3%	14.9%	17.4%	2.8%	3.19	3.81	—
2017	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	53	0	62	251	104	33	6	0%	1.2	41.4%	13.1%	28.3%	2.4%	3.19	2.60	—
2018	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	52	0	58	252	72	45	6	0%	1.1	27.6%	17.2%	10.4%	1.1%	5.28	3.54	+0.7
2018	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	52	0	58	252	72	45	6	0%	1.1	28.6%	17.9%	10.7%	2.4%	5.28	4.29	+0.2
2019	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	68	0	66	296	106	48	7	0%	1.0	34.5%	16.4%	18.1%	2.4%	3.93	3.59	+0.8
2019	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	68	0	66	296	106	48	7	0%	1.0	35.8%	16.2%	19.6%	2.4%	3.93	3.45	+0.9
2020	27	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	20	0	20	75	32	6	4	0%	1.0	42.7%	8.0%	34.7%	5.3%	2.66	3.44	+0.3
2020	27	MLB RAW	Washington Nationals	20	0	20	75	32	6	4	0%	1.0	42.7%	8.0%	34.7%	5.3%	2.66	3.40	+0.3
2021	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	1	39	182	57	29	7	2%	0.9	27.8%	15.9%	11.9%	4.0%	6.41	4.95	-0.2
2021	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	46	1	39	182	57	29	7	2%	0.9	31.3%	15.9%	15.4%	3.8%	6.41	4.73	-0.1
2022	29	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	29	0	30	128	36	13	5	0%	1.0	28.1%	10.2%	18.0%	3.9%	3.30	4.16	+0.1
2022	29	MLB RAW	Washington Nationals	29	0	30	128	36	13	5	0%	1.0	28.1%	10.2%	18.0%	3.9%	3.30	4.17	+0.1
2023	30	MIX MLE	5 levels	14	3	13	56	14	7	1	21%	0.9	25.0%	12.5%	12.5%	1.8%	3.46	3.55	+0.2
2023	30	MIX MLE	5 levels	14	3	13	56	14	7	1	21%	0.9	25.0%	12.5%	12.5%	1.8%	3.46	3.55	+0.2
2023	30	MIX RAW	5 levels	14	3	13	56	14	7	1	21%	0.9	25.0%	12.5%	12.5%	1.8%	3.46	3.56	+0.2
2024	31	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	50	0	51	231	44	28	8	0%	1.0	19.0%	12.1%	6.9%	3.5%	4.76	4.93	-0.2
2024	31	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	50	0	51	231	44	28	8	0%	1.0	19.0%	12.1%	6.9%	3.5%	4.76	4.93	-0.2
2024	31	MLB RAW	Washington Nationals	50	0	51	231	44	28	8	0%	1.0	19.0%	12.1%	6.9%	3.5%	4.76	5.06	-0.3
2025	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	2	50	216	65	32	1	4%	1.0	26.5%	12.2%	14.3%	0.7%	4.47	2.82	+1.0
2025	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	2	50	216	65	32	1	4%	1.0	26.5%	12.2%	14.3%	0.7%	4.47	2.82	+1.0
2025	32	MIX RAW	2 levels	49	2	50	216	65	32	1	4%	1.0	30.1%	14.8%	15.3%	0.5%	4.47	2.68	+1.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			217	0	206	927	253	136	33	0%	0.9	27.3%	14.7%	12.6%	3.6%	5.46	4.71	-0.4
▸ 2026 season
YTD	33	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	49	1	53	229	71	36	1	2%	1.1	27.2%	12.7%	14.5%	0.6%	3.59	2.72	—
YTD	33	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	49	1	53	229	71	36	1	2%	1.1	27.2%	12.7%	14.5%	0.6%	3.59	2.72	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	33	AAA RAW	DET	43	1	46	198	65	28	1	2%	1.1	32.8%	14.1%	18.7%	0.5%	3.55	2.40	—
2026	33	MLB RAW	DET	6	0	7	31	6	8	0	0%	1.2	19.4%	25.8%	-6.5%	0.0%	3.86	4.73	—
SO FAR	33	MLB RAW	DET	6	0	7	31	6	8	0	0%	1.2	19.4%	25.8%	-6.5%	0.0%	3.86	4.73	—
ROS	33	MLB MLE	DET	5	0	5	22	5	3	1	0%	1.0	23.9%	13.3%	10.7%	2.8%	4.25	4.30	+0.0
ROS	33	MLB CTX	DET	5	0	5	21	5	3	1	0%	1.0	23.9%	13.3%	10.7%	2.8%	4.25	4.30	+0.0
2026 TOT	33	MLB MLE	DET	—	—	58	251	76	39	2	—	—	30.4%	15.5%	14.9%	0.6%	3.65	2.86	+1.2
FULL	33	MLB A+C	DET	—	—	12	51	76	39	2	—	—	148.6%	75.8%	72.8%	3.1%	17.36	1.88	+0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	34	MLB MLE	DET	49	0	52	218	48	32	6	0%	1.1	22.2%	14.8%	7.3%	3.0%	4.98	5.12	-0.3
2028	35	MLB MLE	DET	44	0	46	195	41	30	6	0%	1.1	21.2%	15.4%	5.8%	3.3%	5.27	5.46	-0.5
2029	36	MLB MLE	DET	39	0	41	173	35	28	6	0%	1.1	20.2%	16.0%	4.2%	3.7%	5.60	5.83	-0.6
2027	34	MLB CTX	DET	47	0	49	207	46	31	6	0%	1.0	22.2%	14.8%	7.3%	3.0%	4.98	5.12	-0.3
2028	35	MLB CTX	DET	40	0	42	177	38	27	6	0%	1.1	21.2%	15.4%	5.8%	3.3%	5.27	5.46	-0.4
2029	36	MLB CTX	DET	32	0	34	144	29	23	5	0%	1.1	20.2%	16.0%	4.2%	3.7%	5.60	5.83	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		341	0	336	1476	370	220	51	0%	1.0	25.1%	14.9%	10.2%	3.5%	5.36	4.76	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		203	0	200	879	220	131	30	0%	1.0	25.1%	14.9%	10.2%	3.5%	5.36	4.76	-0.5
Career	—	MLE		474	42	605	2658	672	381	58	9%	1.3	25.3%	14.3%	10.9%	2.2%	4.46	3.98	-1.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		157	14	200	878	222	126	19	9%	1.3	25.3%	14.3%	10.9%	2.2%	4.46	3.98	-1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tanner Rainey (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.75	23.4%	13.3%	2.8%	—	5.44	21.3%	5.9%	139	+0.69	—	—	—
Fernando Nieve R 2015 · 4.27 FIP	33	SU	4.27	22.0%	10.5%	3.1%	.290	2.43	26.9%	22.6%	89	-1.84	1.96	112	81
Clayton Mortensen R 2017 · 4.59 FIP	32	SU	4.59	23.2%	14.2%	3.0%	.258	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	221	79
Greg Holland R 2019 · 4.57 FIP	33	SU	4.57	27.0%	14.5%	3.5%	.238	3.79	23.8%	15.4%	84	-0.78	1.97	268	76
Jose Manuel Lopez R 2017 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	20.4%	10.0%	1.8%	.331	6.14	17.9%	3.7%	41	+2.53	3.50	170	75
Ryan Cook R 2018 · 3.96 FIP	31	SU	3.96	25.1%	10.8%	2.9%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	102	74
Radhames Liz R 2018 · 4.45 FIP	34	SU	4.45	21.8%	13.9%	2.6%	.343	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	110	74
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2021 · 4.48 FIP	33	SU	4.48	26.2%	11.2%	4.0%	.263	4.02	18.1%	6.8%	51	-0.46	4.02	104	73
Wade Davis R 2019 · 4.82 FIP	33	SU	4.82	20.4%	14.1%	3.0%	.344	5.18	20.0%	10.0%	43	+0.36	2.00	320	73
Arcenio Leon R 2019 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	21.4%	8.1%	2.4%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.00	115	72
Miguel Mejia R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	31	SU	4.41	15.7%	10.7%	2.3%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	108	71
Alexi Ogando R 2016 · 3.79 FIP	32	SU	3.79	19.6%	12.2%	1.5%	.303	4.10	15.0%	8.6%	35	+0.31	3.79	132	71
Manny Acosta R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	35	SU	4.19	18.1%	9.1%	2.7%	.273	3.08	23.2%	9.9%	44	-1.11	3.08	102	71
Jon Edwards R 2019 · 4.43 FIP	31	SU	4.43	25.1%	11.6%	3.6%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.40	132	71
Nate Jones R 2018 · 4.09 FIP	32	SU	4.09	23.4%	10.9%	2.9%	.279	5.85	21.4%	13.8%	38	+1.76	2.57	157	70
Ross Ohlendorf R 2016 · 4.93 FIP	33	SU	4.93	23.4%	10.7%	4.5%	.254	—	—	—	—	—	3.30	122	70
Jumbo Diaz R 2017 · 4.17 FIP	33	SU	4.17	20.0%	9.7%	2.8%	.302	2.90	24.2%	15.4%	98	-1.27	2.80	284	70
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2016 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	22.7%	10.4%	2.0%	.255	4.41	24.1%	13.8%	97	+0.80	3.34	212	69
John Axford R 2016 · 3.87 FIP	33	SU	3.87	20.8%	10.0%	2.3%	.304	4.05	22.1%	11.3%	76	+0.18	3.20	197	69
Logan Kensing R 2015 · 3.56 FIP	33	SU	3.56	17.6%	8.8%	1.5%	.270	3.06	17.9%	10.0%	124	-0.50	2.73	172	69
Jonathan Broxton R 2017 · 4.34 FIP	33	SU	4.34	20.5%	11.5%	2.8%	.412	—	—	—	—	—	3.67	137	69

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	49	21.9%	14.8%	1.23	5.10
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22