Ty Buttrey

P Tacoma Rainiers

Age 34 RHP 6'6" / 240 lbs AAA peak 0.2 · 2027

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	29	AAALAA	34	0	36	5.94	4.06	17.9%	13.7%	—	K 15.7% · BB 14.4% · FIP 4.33
2023	30	MIX2 levels	17	3	17	4.15	5.18	20.5%	17.9%	—	K 15.6% · BB 17.7% · FIP 6.07
2024	31	AAASEA	29	1	29	9.00	5.10	22.1%	10.0%	—	K 19.0% · BB 9.0% · FIP 4.90
2025	32	No MLB games played
2026	33	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	34	MLBSEA	15	0	16	4.25	4.16	24.5%	8.7%	0.1
2028PROJ6% MLB	35	MLBSEA	7	0	7	4.39	4.49	23.5%	9.2%	0.0
2029PROJMLE	36	MLBSEA	—	—	0	4.67	4.86	22.5%	9.8%	—

Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2020

FB Velo72

xwOBA vs39

K%10

CompsYoshihisa Hirano (age 34) · Fernando Rodriguez Jr. (age 34) · Neil Wagner (age 33)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112104vR 96

ERA4.25

FIP4.16

K%24.5%

BB%8.7%

K-BB%15.8%

Proj IP158

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 158 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL5555

CMD5555

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7296.1

Whiff%

p1220.0%

p1016.1%

xwOBA vs

p390.324

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	138	580	103	48	7	100%	5.5	13.6%	9.5%	4.0%	1.7%	3.92	4.12	—
2015	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	138	580	103	48	7	100%	5.5	17.8%	8.3%	9.5%	1.2%	3.92	3.31	—
2016	23	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	33	9	79	364	52	46	6	27%	2.4	11.6%	13.9%	-2.3%	1.4%	4.44	4.68	—
2016	23	AA RAW	Portland Sea Dogs	33	9	79	364	52	46	6	27%	2.4	14.3%	12.6%	1.6%	1.6%	4.44	4.52	—
2017	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	64	277	74	32	3	0%	1.6	22.1%	12.5%	9.6%	1.1%	4.81	3.45	—
2017	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	0	64	277	74	32	3	0%	1.6	26.7%	11.6%	15.2%	1.1%	4.81	2.90	—
2018	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	53	1	65	273	94	20	4	2%	1.2	30.5%	7.7%	22.9%	1.7%	2.48	2.43	+1.7
2018	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	53	1	65	273	94	20	4	2%	1.2	34.4%	7.3%	27.1%	1.5%	2.48	1.94	+2.1
2019	26	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	72	0	72	309	84	23	8	0%	1.0	27.2%	7.4%	19.7%	2.5%	3.98	3.14	+1.2
2019	26	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Angels	72	0	72	309	84	23	8	0%	1.0	27.2%	7.4%	19.7%	2.6%	3.98	3.17	+1.2
2020	27	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	27	0	26	112	18	6	4	0%	1.0	16.1%	5.4%	10.7%	3.5%	5.81	4.34	+0.1
2020	27	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Angels	27	0	26	112	18	6	4	0%	1.0	16.1%	5.4%	10.7%	3.6%	5.81	4.39	+0.0
2022	29	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	34	0	36	168	30	23	2	0%	1.1	15.7%	14.4%	1.3%	1.3%	5.94	4.33	—
2022	29	AAA RAW	Salt Lake Bees	34	0	36	168	30	23	2	0%	1.1	17.9%	13.7%	4.2%	1.2%	5.94	4.06	—
2023	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	3	17	78	16	14	2	18%	1.0	15.6%	17.7%	-2.1%	3.7%	4.15	6.07	—
2023	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	3	17	78	16	14	2	18%	1.0	20.5%	17.9%	2.6%	2.6%	4.15	5.18	—
2024	31	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	29	1	29	140	31	14	6	3%	1.0	19.0%	9.0%	10.0%	4.1%	9.00	4.90	—
2024	31	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	29	1	29	140	31	14	6	3%	1.0	19.0%	9.0%	10.0%	4.1%	9.00	4.90	—
2024	31	AAA RAW	Tacoma Rainiers	29	1	29	140	31	14	6	3%	1.0	22.1%	10.0%	12.1%	4.3%	9.00	5.10	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			115	0	115	491	122	34	12	0%	1.0	24.8%	6.9%	17.9%	2.4%	4.30	3.22	+1.8
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	34	MLB	SEA	15	0	16	68	17	6	2	0%	1.1	24.5%	8.7%	15.8%	3.0%	4.25	4.16	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	35	MLB MLE	SEA	113	0	118	499	118	46	17	0%	1.0	23.5%	9.2%	14.3%	3.3%	4.39	4.49	+0.1
2029	36	MLB MLE	SEA	86	0	91	383	86	38	14	0%	1.1	22.5%	9.8%	12.7%	3.7%	4.67	4.86	-0.3
2028	35	MLB CTX	SEA	7	0	7	30	7	3	1	0%	1.0	23.5%	9.2%	14.3%	3.3%	4.39	4.49	+0.0
2029	36	MLB CTX	SEA	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.5%	9.8%	12.7%	3.7%	4.67	4.86	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		121	0	122	518	128	37	13	0%	1.0	24.8%	7.0%	17.7%	2.5%	4.31	3.27	+1.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		199	0	200	853	211	61	21	0%	1.0	24.8%	7.0%	17.7%	2.5%	4.31	3.27	+3.1
Career	—	MLE		330	39	527	2301	433	241	46	12%	1.6	18.8%	10.5%	8.3%	2.0%	4.46	3.93	+1.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		125	15	200	873	164	92	17	12%	1.6	18.8%	10.5%	8.3%	2.0%	4.46	3.93	+1.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2024 AAATacoma Rainiers · 29 IPFIP 4.85 → 4.90 (+0.05)K% 22.1% → 19.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.14%	—	×0.860	19.04%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.00%	—	×0.900	9.00%
HR / BF /BF	4.29%	÷1.142	×1.100	4.13%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 128).

Result: FIP 4.85 → 4.90, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 13 IPFIP 5.72 → 6.07 (+0.34)K% 18.2% → 15.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.18%	—	×0.860	15.64%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	19.70%	—	×0.900	17.73%
HR / BF /BF	3.03%	÷0.896	×1.100	3.72%

Result: FIP 5.72 → 6.07, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAASalt Lake Bees · 36 IPFIP 3.98 → 4.33 (+0.35)K% 17.9% → 15.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.86%	—	×0.880	15.71%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.69%	—	×1.050	14.38%
HR / BF /BF	1.19%	÷0.978	×1.100	1.34%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 96).

Result: FIP 3.98 → 4.33, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAASalt Lake Bees · 48 IPFIP 2.15 → 2.72 (+0.57)K% 35.5% → 31.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	35.50%	—	×0.880	31.24%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.50%	—	×1.050	7.88%
HR / BF /BF	2.00%	÷0.958	×1.100	2.30%

Result: FIP 2.15 → 2.72, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 46 IPFIP 2.38 → 3.04 (+0.66)K% 28.9% → 23.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.87%	—	×0.810	23.38%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.34%	—	×1.100	12.47%
HR / BF /BF	0.52%	÷1.020	×1.200	0.61%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 104).

Result: FIP 2.38 → 3.04, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAAPawtucket Red Sox · 18 IPFIP 4.12 → 4.41 (+0.29)K% 21.7% → 19.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.69%	—	×0.880	19.08%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.05%	—	×1.050	12.65%
HR / BF /BF	2.41%	÷1.106	×1.100	2.40%

Result: FIP 4.12 → 4.41, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 79 IPFIP 4.40 → 4.68 (+0.28)K% 14.3% → 11.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	14.29%	—	×0.810	11.57%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.64%	—	×1.100	13.90%
HR / BF /BF	1.65%	÷1.371	×1.200	1.44%

Result: FIP 4.40 → 4.68, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 A+Salem Red Sox · 116 IPFIP 3.42 → 4.19 (+0.76)K% 16.4% → 12.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.40%	—	×0.770	12.63%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.11%	—	×1.150	10.48%
HR / BF /BF	1.01%	÷0.841	×1.250	1.50%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 68).

Result: FIP 3.42 → 4.19, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ty Buttrey (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.16	24.5%	8.7%	3.0%	—	4.65	23.1%	13.6%	209	+0.49	—	—	—
Yoshihisa Hirano R 2018 · 3.45 FIP	34	SU	3.45	22.5%	7.3%	2.4%	.242	3.97	24.6%	15.2%	65	+0.52	3.45	132	57
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2018 · 4.07 FIP	34	SW	4.07	23.7%	9.9%	3.1%	.253	5.11	25.0%	13.8%	32	+1.04	3.34	335	53
Neil Wagner R 2017 · 3.11 FIP	33	SU	3.11	20.7%	8.6%	1.2%	.257	—	—	—	—	—	3.11	135	53
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2022 · 4.02 FIP	34	SU	4.02	18.1%	11.3%	1.9%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	104	52
Giovanni Carrara R 2002 · 4.78 FIP	34	SU	4.78	14.5%	7.2%	3.6%	.239	3.83	17.1%	7.9%	158	-0.95	2.50	462	52
Keiichi Yabu R 2005 · 4.05 FIP	36	SU	4.05	16.8%	8.8%	2.3%	.307	3.48	15.9%	6.6%	68	-0.57	3.48	126	51
Huascar Brazobán R 2024 · 3.08 FIP	34	SU	3.08	23.5%	11.5%	0.9%	.259	3.71	21.3%	11.7%	144	+0.63	3.08	370	51
Blake Parker R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	34	SU	4.65	25.5%	8.6%	4.8%	.258	4.26	24.9%	15.4%	87	-0.39	2.52	406	51
Jean Machi R 2016 · 4.36 FIP	34	SU	4.36	18.3%	6.6%	3.6%	.282	4.12	18.6%	12.0%	67	-0.24	2.16	306	51
Scott McGough R 2024 · 4.56 FIP	34	SU	4.56	18.6%	12.2%	2.7%	.289	3.82	20.3%	13.1%	57	-0.74	3.55	429	50
Brendan Donnelly R 2005 · 4.02 FIP	34	SU	4.02	19.6%	5.9%	3.3%	.264	4.02	17.6%	8.5%	98	-0.00	2.23	385	50
Chris Jakubauskas R 2011 · 4.42 FIP	32	SW	4.42	15.7%	7.9%	3.0%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	165	50
Greg Burke R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	22.1%	7.3%	2.7%	.241	—	—	—	—	—	3.61	139	49
Robert Suarez R 2024 · 3.36 FIP	33	SU	3.36	22.9%	5.8%	2.6%	.254	2.54	25.3%	20.3%	104	-0.82	1.95	291	49
Tiago Da Silva R 2019 · 3.95 FIP	34	SW	3.95	15.0%	7.2%	2.2%	.365	—	—	—	—	—	2.21	287	49
Josh Lueke R 2019 · 4.11 FIP	34	SU	4.11	20.4%	6.4%	3.5%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	2.29	191	48
Zack Segovia R 2016 · 3.33 FIP	33	SU	3.33	20.2%	5.9%	2.2%	.312	4.55	17.6%	4.0%	57	+1.22	3.33	144	48
Juan Sandoval R 2015 · 3.82 FIP	34	SU	3.82	15.4%	6.0%	2.3%	.294	3.33	17.4%	8.8%	116	-0.49	3.24	225	47
Mark Serrano R 2019 · 5.25 FIP	33	SU	5.25	20.2%	7.9%	5.2%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	120	47
Rafael Martín R 2017 · 3.40 FIP	33	SU	3.40	20.4%	5.1%	2.5%	.305	4.71	22.5%	16.5%	47	+1.31	2.94	227	47

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.4	96	24.0%	8.8%	1.19	4.38
Mel Queen ('66-'72, 4 WAR*)	1.9	97	24.2%*	9.0%*	1.27*	3.77*
Joe Beckwith ('79-'86, 3 WAR*)	2.1	70	24.9%*	8.2%*	1.13*	3.96*
John Henry Johnson ('78-'87, 6 WAR*)	3.0	75	24.6%*	9.6%*	1.15*	4.15*
Félix Peña ('21)	1.3	65	23.9%	8.5%	1.35	4.66
Hisanori Takahashi ('13)	1.2	81	21.6%	8.2%	1.07	3.99
Brad Peacock ('21)	2.8	93	24.7%	10.1%	1.27	4.11