Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 22 | A | Augusta GreenJackets | 42 | 0 | 49 | 226 | 64 | 22 | 1 | 0% | 1.2 | 21.0% | 11.5% | 9.5% | 0.6% | 5.73 | 3.13 | — |
| 2015 | 22 | A | Augusta GreenJackets | 42 | 0 | 49 | 226 | 64 | 22 | 1 | 0% | 1.2 | 28.3% | 9.7% | 18.6% | 0.4% | 5.73 | 2.09 | — |
| 2016 | 23 | A+ | San Jose Giants | 60 | 0 | 59 | 243 | 93 | 20 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 29.5% | 9.5% | 20.0% | 3.3% | 2.59 | 3.62 | — |
| 2016 | 23 | A+ | San Jose Giants | 60 | 0 | 59 | 243 | 93 | 20 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 38.3% | 8.2% | 30.0% | 2.9% | 2.59 | 2.51 | — |
| 2017 | 24 | MIX | 4 levels | 41 | 0 | 44 | 186 | 58 | 22 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.9% | 14.3% | 9.5% | 2.1% | 2.89 | 4.04 | +0.3 |
| 2017 | 24 | MIX | 4 levels | 41 | 0 | 44 | 186 | 58 | 22 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 31.2% | 11.8% | 19.4% | 1.6% | 2.89 | 2.85 | +0.9 |
| 2018 | 25 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 69 | 0 | 65 | 262 | 79 | 33 | 4 | 0% | 0.9 | 30.2% | 12.6% | 17.6% | 1.7% | 2.49 | 3.06 | +1.2 |
| 2018 | 25 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 69 | 0 | 65 | 262 | 79 | 33 | 4 | 0% | 0.9 | 30.2% | 12.6% | 17.6% | 1.5% | 2.49 | 2.99 | +1.3 |
| 2019 | 26 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 56 | 0 | 57 | 246 | 70 | 32 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.5% | 13.0% | 15.4% | 1.8% | 2.86 | 3.31 | +0.8 |
| 2019 | 26 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 56 | 0 | 57 | 246 | 70 | 32 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.5% | 13.0% | 15.4% | 1.6% | 2.86 | 3.24 | +0.9 |
| 2021 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 2 | 22 | 111 | 21 | 26 | 4 | 7% | 0.8 | 17.1% | 27.9% | -10.8% | 3.4% | 9.41 | 7.05 | -0.6 |
| 2021 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 2 | 22 | 111 | 21 | 26 | 4 | 7% | 0.8 | 18.9% | 23.4% | -4.5% | 3.6% | 9.41 | 7.10 | -0.7 |
| 2022 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 50 | 0 | 48 | 207 | 55 | 26 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.6% | 10.6% | 13.0% | 3.0% | 3.97 | 4.08 | +0.3 |
| 2022 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 50 | 0 | 48 | 207 | 55 | 26 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.6% | 12.6% | 14.0% | 2.9% | 3.97 | 4.07 | +0.3 |
| 2023 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 36 | 0 | 42 | 194 | 54 | 38 | 4 | 0% | 1.2 | 25.0% | 20.1% | 4.9% | 1.8% | 3.43 | 4.52 | +0.0 |
| 2023 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 36 | 0 | 42 | 194 | 54 | 38 | 4 | 0% | 1.2 | 27.8% | 19.6% | 8.2% | 2.1% | 3.43 | 4.48 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 33 | MLB | LAA | 51 | 0 | 54 | 226 | 59 | 25 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.2% | 11.1% | 15.2% | 2.9% | 4.27 | 4.25 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | LAA | 46 | 0 | 49 | 206 | 52 | 24 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.4% | 11.6% | 13.8% | 3.2% | 4.44 | 4.56 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | LAA | 42 | 0 | 44 | 185 | 45 | 22 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.4% | 12.1% | 12.3% | 3.5% | 4.71 | 4.89 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 36 | MLB | LAA | 37 | 0 | 39 | 163 | 38 | 21 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 10.6% | 3.9% | 5.04 | 5.26 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | LAA | 3 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.4% | 11.6% | 13.8% | 3.2% | 4.44 | 4.56 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | LAA | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 24.4% | 12.1% | 12.3% | 3.5% | 4.71 | 4.89 | — |
| 2029 | 36 | MLB | LAA | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 23.4% | 12.7% | 10.6% | 3.9% | 5.04 | 5.26 | — |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 180 | 0 | 174 | 735 | 205 | 89 | 16 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.9% | 12.0% | 15.9% | 2.2% | 3.07 | 3.49 | +3.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 206 | 0 | 200 | 843 | 235 | 102 | 18 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.9% | 12.0% | 15.9% | 2.2% | 3.07 | 3.49 | +4.5 | ||
| Career | — | 382 | 2 | 385 | 1675 | 429 | 232 | 35 | 1% | 1.0 | 25.6% | 13.9% | 11.7% | 2.1% | 3.70 | 3.86 | +6.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 199 | 1 | 200 | 871 | 223 | 121 | 18 | 1% | 1.0 | 25.6% | 13.9% | 11.7% | 2.1% | 3.70 | 3.86 | +3.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Reyes Moronta (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.25 | 26.2% | 11.1% | 2.9% | — | 4.88 | 24.4% | 12.3% | 131 | +0.63 | — | — | — |
| Ryan Cook R 2024 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 102 | 86 |
| Blake Wood R 2024 · 3.52 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.52 | 25.3% | 9.3% | 2.5% | .364 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.05 | 210 | 85 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2028 · 3.51 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.51 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 2.7% | .290 | 3.93 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 161 | +0.42 | 3.51 | 219 | 84 |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.40 | 26.2% | 11.2% | 3.8% | .263 | 3.99 | 18.1% | 6.8% | 51 | -0.41 | 3.99 | 104 | 82 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .290 | 2.37 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.80 | 2.08 | 112 | 81 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2026 · 4.99 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.99 | 23.4% | 10.7% | 4.6% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.26 | 122 | 80 |
| Huascar Brazobán R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.52 | 25.3% | 11.3% | 2.1% | .304 | 3.43 | 22.8% | 12.6% | 174 | -0.09 | 3.08 | 349 | 79 |
| Brad Brach R 2026 · 3.44 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.44 | 24.8% | 12.0% | 1.7% | .356 | 4.68 | 23.0% | 9.8% | 66 | +1.24 | 2.73 | 410 | 79 |
| Bud Norris R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.52 | 27.3% | 7.3% | 3.3% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.52 | 316 | 79 |
| Jon Edwards R 2024 · 4.46 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.46 | 25.1% | 11.6% | 3.7% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.30 | 132 | 78 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2025 · 3.77 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.77 | 20.4% | 10.0% | 2.1% | .331 | 5.83 | 17.9% | 3.7% | 41 | +2.06 | 3.37 | 170 | 78 |
| Clayton Mortensen R 2025 · 4.62 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.62 | 23.2% | 14.2% | 3.1% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.23 | 221 | 77 |
| Tony Barnette R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.58 | 22.6% | 7.1% | 2.7% | .335 | 2.63 | 25.0% | 20.2% | 26 | -0.95 | 2.63 | 144 | 77 |
| Arcenio Leon R 2025 · 3.43 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.43 | 21.4% | 8.1% | 2.0% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.03 | 115 | 75 |
| Bryan Shaw R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.40 | 21.3% | 11.4% | 3.0% | .274 | 3.99 | 19.7% | 8.3% | 169 | -0.41 | 2.78 | 596 | 75 |
| Nate Jones R 2025 · 4.06 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.06 | 23.4% | 10.9% | 2.8% | .279 | 6.10 | 21.4% | 13.8% | 38 | +2.04 | 2.54 | 157 | 75 |
| Jumbo Diaz R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.22 | 20.0% | 9.7% | 2.9% | .302 | 2.90 | 24.2% | 15.4% | 98 | -1.32 | 2.82 | 284 | 74 |
| Manny Acosta R 2028 · 3.99 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.99 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.3% | .273 | 3.04 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -0.95 | 3.04 | 102 | 72 |
| Spencer Patton R 2026 · 3.09 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.09 | 27.9% | 8.7% | 2.3% | .305 | 5.10 | 21.4% | 9.7% | 88 | +2.01 | 2.74 | 239 | 72 |
| Zack Segovia R 2026 · 3.41 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.41 | 20.2% | 5.9% | 2.3% | .312 | 4.36 | 17.6% | 4.0% | 57 | +0.95 | 3.41 | 144 | 72 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 46 | 25.0% | 11.8% | 1.29 | 4.58 |
| Lucas Sims ('24) | 6 | 47 | 27.6% | 11.6% | 1.24 | 4.22 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Robert Stephenson ('23) | 6 | 57 | 26.2% | 9.9% | 1.39 | 4.33 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |