Lou Trivino — OGILVIE

Lou Trivino P Lehigh Valley IronPigs

Age 34 RHP 6'5" / 232 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION48 act + 3 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117109vR 101

ERA4.01

FIP4.11

K%19.7%

BB%8.4%

K-BB%11.3%

ROS IP3

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 51 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL5050

CMD4040

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5494.8

Whiff%

p4925.1%

p2117.9%

xwOBA vs

p210.346

FB+2.7 (38%)

SL+1.5 (20%)

SI (22%)

CU (1%)

CT-2.1 (24%)

CH-2.6 (17%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	23	A+ MLE	Stockton Ports	32	9	90	377	78	43	5	28%	2.8	15.9%	13.1%	2.8%	1.0%	3.91	3.95	—
2015	23	A+ RAW	Stockton Ports	32	9	90	377	78	43	5	28%	2.8	20.7%	11.4%	9.3%	1.3%	3.91	3.52	—
2016	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	60	259	61	22	1	0%	1.3	18.3%	9.7%	8.6%	0.5%	2.85	3.03	—
2016	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	0	60	259	61	22	1	0%	1.3	23.6%	8.5%	15.1%	0.4%	2.85	2.38	—
2017	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	0	68	288	65	19	0	0%	1.4	19.0%	7.1%	11.9%	0.0%	3.03	2.39	—
2017	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	48	0	68	288	65	19	0	0%	1.4	22.6%	6.6%	16.0%	0.0%	3.03	2.03	—
2018	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	73	1	79	318	92	28	8	1%	1.1	27.4%	9.0%	18.4%	2.9%	2.84	3.54	+1.0
2018	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	73	1	79	318	92	28	8	1%	1.1	28.9%	8.8%	20.1%	2.5%	2.84	3.15	+1.3
2019	27	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	61	0	60	269	57	29	7	0%	1.0	21.2%	10.8%	10.4%	2.9%	5.25	4.25	+0.2
2019	27	MLB RAW	Oakland Athletics	61	0	60	269	57	29	7	0%	1.0	21.2%	10.8%	10.4%	2.6%	5.25	4.17	+0.3
2020	28	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	20	0	23	93	26	10	3	0%	1.2	28.0%	10.8%	17.2%	3.5%	3.86	4.05	+0.1
2020	28	MLB RAW	Oakland Athletics	20	0	23	93	26	10	3	0%	1.2	28.0%	10.8%	17.2%	3.2%	3.86	3.83	+0.2
2021	29	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	71	0	74	310	67	32	5	0%	1.0	21.6%	10.3%	11.3%	1.8%	3.18	3.56	+0.9
2021	29	MLB RAW	Oakland Athletics	71	0	74	310	67	32	5	0%	1.0	21.6%	10.3%	11.3%	1.6%	3.18	3.47	+0.9
2022	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	65	1	55	258	69	22	7	2%	0.8	26.8%	8.8%	18.0%	2.2%	5.27	3.19	+0.9
2022	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	65	1	55	258	69	22	7	2%	0.8	26.7%	8.5%	18.2%	2.7%	5.27	3.45	+0.7
2024	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	0	11	48	11	6	1	0%	1.0	22.9%	12.5%	10.4%	2.1%	4.91	3.89	—
2024	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	0	11	48	11	6	1	0%	1.0	22.9%	12.5%	10.4%	2.1%	4.91	3.89	—
2024	32	MIX RAW	2 levels	11	0	11	48	11	6	1	0%	1.0	22.9%	12.5%	10.4%	2.1%	4.91	3.92	—
2025	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	54	2	56	238	46	21	6	4%	1.0	17.9%	8.2%	9.7%	2.7%	3.40	4.11	+0.3
2025	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	54	2	56	238	46	21	6	4%	1.0	17.9%	8.2%	9.7%	2.7%	3.40	4.11	+0.3
2025	33	MIX RAW	2 levels	54	2	56	238	46	21	6	4%	1.0	19.3%	8.8%	10.5%	2.5%	3.40	3.98	+0.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			337	3	338	1464	343	144	36	1%	1.0	23.4%	9.8%	13.6%	2.5%	4.07	3.73	+3.3
▸ 2026 season
YTD	34	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	40	0	48	216	57	21	4	0%	1.2	23.1%	7.0%	16.1%	1.8%	4.10	3.05	—
YTD	34	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	40	0	48	216	57	21	4	0%	1.2	23.1%	7.0%	16.1%	1.8%	4.10	3.05	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	34	AAA RAW	PHI	35	0	42	180	50	14	3	0%	1.2	27.8%	7.8%	20.0%	1.7%	2.55	2.65	—
2026	34	MLB RAW	PHI	5	0	6	36	7	7	1	0%	1.2	19.4%	19.4%	0.0%	2.8%	15.00	5.45	—
SO FAR	34	MLB RAW	PHI	5	0	6	36	7	7	1	0%	1.2	19.4%	19.4%	0.0%	2.8%	15.00	5.45	—
ROS	34	MLB MLE	PHI	3	0	3	13	3	1	0	0%	1.0	19.7%	8.4%	11.3%	2.9%	4.01	4.11	+0.0
ROS	34	MLB CTX	PHI	3	0	3	13	2	1	0	0%	1.0	19.7%	8.4%	11.3%	2.9%	4.01	4.11	+0.0
2026 TOT	34	MLB MLE	PHI	—	—	51	229	60	22	4	—	—	26.0%	9.6%	16.4%	1.9%	4.09	3.11	+0.9
FULL	34	MLB A+C	PHI	—	—	9	39	60	22	4	—	—	154.4%	57.3%	97.1%	11.4%	23.03	3.56	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	35	MLB MLE	PHI	48	0	50	213	39	22	7	0%	1.1	18.3%	10.1%	8.2%	3.3%	4.83	5.00	-0.3
2028	36	MLB MLE	PHI	43	0	45	189	33	20	7	0%	1.0	17.3%	10.7%	6.6%	3.6%	5.15	5.37	-0.4
2027	35	MLB CTX	PHI	46	0	48	203	37	21	7	0%	1.0	18.3%	10.1%	8.2%	3.3%	4.83	5.00	-0.2
2028	36	MLB CTX	PHI	37	0	39	165	29	18	6	0%	1.1	17.3%	10.7%	6.6%	3.6%	5.15	5.37	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		423	3	428	1843	411	183	49	1%	1.0	22.3%	9.9%	12.4%	2.7%	4.25	3.93	+3.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		197	1	200	861	192	85	23	1%	1.0	22.3%	9.9%	12.4%	2.7%	4.25	3.93	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		520	13	624	2674	572	258	48	2%	1.2	21.4%	9.6%	11.7%	1.8%	3.72	3.50	+2.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		167	4	200	857	183	83	15	2%	1.2	21.4%	9.6%	11.7%	1.8%	3.72	3.50	+1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Lou Trivino (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.54	19.3%	8.6%	2.9%	—	5.17	17.9%	7.5%	95	+0.63	—	—	—
Manny Acosta R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	35	SU	4.19	18.1%	9.1%	2.7%	.273	3.08	23.2%	9.9%	44	-1.11	3.08	102	90
Mark Lowe R 2017 · 5.03 FIP	34	SU	5.03	16.4%	10.0%	3.7%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	2.37	153	86
Dustin McGowan R 2016 · 3.82 FIP	34	SU	3.82	22.6%	9.3%	2.6%	.230	4.58	19.4%	12.7%	78	+0.76	3.82	208	84
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2022 · 4.02 FIP	34	SU	4.02	18.1%	11.3%	1.9%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	104	84
Francisco Del Rosario R 2017 · 4.15 FIP	36	SU	4.15	16.4%	10.0%	2.1%	.267	6.35	11.9%	-0.6%	77	+2.20	4.15	145	84
Diego Moreno R 2021 · 4.75 FIP	34	SU	4.75	18.6%	9.4%	3.7%	.232	—	—	—	—	—	2.29	187	83
Jean Machi R 2016 · 4.36 FIP	34	SU	4.36	18.3%	6.6%	3.6%	.282	4.12	18.6%	12.0%	67	-0.24	4.12	186	83
Ramon E Ramirez R 2016 · 3.60 FIP	34	SU	3.60	18.4%	6.0%	2.4%	.262	3.49	14.0%	8.2%	40	-0.11	2.37	140	82
Juan Sandoval R 2015 · 3.82 FIP	34	SU	3.82	15.4%	6.0%	2.3%	.294	3.33	17.4%	8.8%	116	-0.49	3.24	225	82
Carlos Torres R 2017 · 4.51 FIP	34	SU	4.51	17.4%	9.9%	3.0%	.304	3.66	19.8%	11.6%	113	-0.85	2.89	326	81
Josh Lueke R 2019 · 4.11 FIP	34	SU	4.11	20.4%	6.4%	3.5%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	2.29	107	80
Ross Ohlendorf R 2016 · 4.93 FIP	33	SU	4.93	23.4%	10.7%	4.5%	.254	—	—	—	—	—	3.30	122	79
Hector Navarro R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	35	SU	4.35	15.0%	5.4%	3.3%	.281	3.00	15.2%	9.0%	81	-1.35	2.30	126	79
Carlos Fisher R 2017 · 3.91 FIP	34	SU	3.91	18.1%	12.9%	1.3%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	2.48	147	79
Tom Wilhelmsen R 2017 · 5.42 FIP	33	SU	5.42	14.3%	10.4%	4.0%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	3.07	148	78
Jim Johnson R 2017 · 3.89 FIP	34	SU	3.89	23.8%	8.6%	3.1%	.309	4.48	16.8%	9.0%	63	+0.59	2.56	251	78
Mark Serrano R 2019 · 5.25 FIP	33	SU	5.25	20.2%	7.9%	5.2%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	120	78
Santiago Casilla R 2015 · 3.50 FIP	35	SU	3.50	25.4%	8.6%	2.7%	.290	3.97	22.4%	12.7%	161	+0.47	3.50	219	77
Clayton Mortensen R 2017 · 4.59 FIP	32	SU	4.59	23.2%	14.2%	3.0%	.258	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	221	77
Rafael Dolis R 2022 · 3.61 FIP	34	SU	3.61	19.9%	11.9%	1.2%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	162	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	50	18.4%	9.7%	1.26	4.78
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38