Lou Trivino
P
Lehigh Valley IronPigs
+0.2
WAR
Age 34
RHP
6'5" / 232 lbs
AAA
peak 0.2 · 2026
ERA4.25
FIP4.44
xFIP5.26
SIERA4.58
K%20.1%
BB%8.6%
K-BB%11.5%
IP36
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.2peak
2026
STUF5050
CTRL5050
CMD4040
K†5050
FB Velo
p5494.8
Whiff%
p4925.1%
K%
p2117.9%
xwOBA vs
p210.346
FB+2.7 (38%)
SL+1.5 (20%)
SI (22%)
CU (1%)
CT-2.1 (24%)
CH-2.6 (17%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 23 | A+ | Stockton Ports | 32 | 9 | 90 | 377 | 78 | 43 | 5 | 15.9% | 13.1% | 0.9% | 3.91 | 3.93 | +1.3 |
| 2016 | 24 | AA | Midland RockHounds | 45 | 0 | 60 | 259 | 61 | 22 | 1 | 18.3% | 9.7% | 0.5% | 2.85 | 3.03 | +1.3 |
| 2017 | 25 | AAA | Nashville Sounds | 48 | 0 | 68 | 288 | 65 | 19 | 0 | 19.0% | 7.1% | 0.0% | 3.03 | 2.39 | +2.0 |
| 2018 | 26 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | 73 | 1 | 79 | 318 | 92 | 28 | 8 | 27.4% | 9.0% | 3.0% | 2.84 | 3.60 | +1.4 |
| 2019 | 27 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | 61 | 0 | 60 | 269 | 57 | 29 | 7 | 21.2% | 10.8% | 2.8% | 5.25 | 4.20 | +0.5 |
| 2020 | 28 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | 20 | 0 | 23 | 93 | 26 | 10 | 3 | 28.0% | 10.8% | 3.4% | 3.86 | 3.94 | +0.3 |
| 2021 | 29 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | 71 | 0 | 74 | 310 | 67 | 32 | 5 | 21.6% | 10.3% | 1.7% | 3.18 | 3.53 | +1.3 |
| 2022 | 30 | MLB | New York Yankees | 65 | 1 | 55 | 258 | 69 | 22 | 7 | 26.8% | 8.8% | 2.3% | 5.27 | 3.21 | +1.1 |
| 2024 | 32 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | 11 | 0 | 11 | 48 | 11 | 6 | 1 | — | — | — | 4.91 | — | — |
| 2025 | 33 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 54 | 2 | 56 | 238 | 46 | 21 | 6 | 17.9% | 8.2% | 2.6% | 3.40 | 4.07 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 34 | AAA | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | 6 | 0 | 8 | 34 | 12 | 2 | 1 | — | — | — | 4.50 | — | — |
| ROS | 34 | MLB | PHI | 36 | — | 36 | 152 | 32 | 13 | 4 | 21.3% | 8.7% | 2.9% | 4.29 | 4.38 | +0.2 |
| 2026 Total | 34 | MLB | PHI | — | — | 44 | 186 | 44 | 15 | 5 | 23.9% | 8.2% | 2.9% | 4.33 | 3.58 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 35 | MLB | PHI | 34 | — | 34 | 143 | 29 | 13 | 4 | 20.6% | 9.0% | 3.0% | 4.44 | 4.53 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 36 | MLB | PHI | 32 | — | 32 | 133 | 26 | 12 | 4 | 19.8% | 9.2% | 3.1% | 4.60 | 4.70 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 486 | 13 | 584 | 2492 | 534 | 245 | 45 | 21.4% | 9.8% | 1.8% | 3.70 | 3.52 | +11.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 167 | 4 | 200 | 854 | 183 | 84 | 15 | 21.4% | 9.8% | 1.8% | 3.70 | 3.52 | +4.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Lou Trivino (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.38 | 21.3% | 8.7% | 2.9% | — | 4.61 | 20.2% | 11.1% | 65 | +0.23 | — | — | — |
| Josh Lueke R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.14 | 20.4% | 6.4% | 3.6% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.32 | 107 | 84 |
| Zack Segovia R 2025 · 3.37 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.37 | 20.2% | 5.9% | 2.2% | .312 | 4.52 | 17.6% | 4.0% | 57 | +1.15 | 3.37 | 144 | 83 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.81 | 22.6% | 9.3% | 2.6% | .230 | 4.45 | 19.4% | 12.7% | 78 | +0.64 | 3.81 | 208 | 82 |
| Manny Acosta R 2027 · 4.09 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.09 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.5% | .273 | 3.07 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -1.02 | 3.07 | 102 | 82 |
| Diego Moreno R 2026 · 4.75 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.75 | 18.6% | 9.4% | 3.7% | .232 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.31 | 187 | 82 |
| Jim Johnson R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.96 | 23.8% | 8.6% | 3.2% | .309 | 4.52 | 16.8% | 9.0% | 63 | +0.56 | 2.57 | 251 | 81 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2027 · 3.50 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.50 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 2.6% | .290 | 3.90 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 161 | +0.40 | 3.50 | 219 | 81 |
| Ramon E Ramirez R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.63 | 18.4% | 6.0% | 2.4% | .262 | 3.50 | 14.0% | 8.2% | 40 | -0.13 | 2.37 | 140 | 80 |
| Mark Lowe R 2026 · 5.01 FIP | 34 | SU | 5.01 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 3.7% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.30 | 153 | 80 |
| Jean Machi R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 34 | SW | 4.39 | 18.3% | 6.6% | 3.6% | .282 | 4.11 | 18.6% | 12.0% | 67 | -0.28 | 4.11 | 186 | 80 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.09 | 15.0% | 6.4% | 2.6% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 132 | 80 |
| Mark Serrano R 2025 · 5.25 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.25 | 20.2% | 7.9% | 5.2% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.10 | 120 | 79 |
| Hector Navarro R 2027 · 4.37 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.37 | 15.0% | 5.4% | 3.4% | .281 | 2.96 | 15.2% | 9.0% | 81 | -1.41 | 2.30 | 126 | 78 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2025 · 4.98 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.98 | 23.4% | 10.7% | 4.6% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 122 | 77 |
| Juan Sandoval R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.82 | 15.4% | 6.0% | 2.3% | .294 | 3.34 | 17.4% | 8.8% | 116 | -0.48 | 3.21 | 225 | 77 |
| Carlos Torres R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 34 | SW | 4.51 | 17.4% | 9.9% | 3.0% | .304 | 3.66 | 19.8% | 11.6% | 113 | -0.85 | 2.89 | 326 | 76 |
| Francisco Del Rosario R 2028 · 4.12 FIP | 36 | SW | 4.12 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 2.1% | .267 | 6.46 | 11.9% | -0.6% | 77 | +2.34 | 4.12 | 145 | 76 |
| Pedro Strop R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.10 | 27.5% | 10.7% | 3.6% | .260 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.58 | 277 | 76 |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.98 | 18.1% | 11.3% | 1.8% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.98 | 104 | 76 |
| Guillermo Moscoso R 2026 · 5.06 FIP | 34 | SW | 5.06 | 18.2% | 8.4% | 4.5% | .318 | 4.34 | 12.6% | 5.9% | 104 | -0.72 | 3.77 | 264 | 75 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.