Lou Trivino
P
Lehigh Valley IronPigs
Age 34
RHP
6'5" / 232 lbs
AAA
ILInjured 15-Day (D15)
2026 ROS PROJECTION37 act + 43 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118109vR 100
ERA3.93
FIP4.03
K%20.3%
BB%8.6%
K-BB%11.7%
ROS IP43
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 80 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p5494.8
Whiff%
p4925.1%
K%
p2117.9%
xwOBA vs
p210.346
FB+2.7 (38%)
SL+1.5 (20%)
SI (22%)
CU (1%)
CT-2.1 (24%)
CH-2.6 (17%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 23 | A+ | Stockton Ports | 32 | 9 | 90 | 377 | 78 | 43 | 5 | 28% | 2.8 | 15.9% | 13.1% | 2.8% | 0.7% | 3.91 | 3.79 | — |
| 2015 | 23 | A+ | Stockton Ports | 32 | 9 | 90 | 377 | 78 | 43 | 5 | 28% | 2.8 | 20.7% | 11.4% | 9.3% | 1.3% | 3.91 | 3.52 | — |
| 2016 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 45 | 0 | 60 | 259 | 61 | 22 | 1 | 0% | 1.3 | 18.3% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 0.5% | 2.85 | 3.03 | — |
| 2016 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 45 | 0 | 60 | 259 | 61 | 22 | 1 | 0% | 1.3 | 23.6% | 8.5% | 15.1% | 0.4% | 2.85 | 2.38 | — |
| 2017 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 48 | 0 | 68 | 288 | 65 | 19 | 0 | 0% | 1.4 | 19.0% | 7.1% | 11.9% | 0.0% | 3.03 | 2.39 | — |
| 2017 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 48 | 0 | 68 | 288 | 65 | 19 | 0 | 0% | 1.4 | 22.6% | 6.6% | 16.0% | 0.0% | 3.03 | 2.03 | — |
| 2018 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 73 | 1 | 79 | 318 | 92 | 28 | 8 | 1% | 1.1 | 27.4% | 9.0% | 18.4% | 2.8% | 2.84 | 3.47 | +1.4 |
| 2018 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 73 | 1 | 79 | 318 | 92 | 28 | 8 | 1% | 1.1 | 28.9% | 8.8% | 20.1% | 2.5% | 2.84 | 3.15 | +1.7 |
| 2019 | 27 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | 61 | 0 | 60 | 269 | 57 | 29 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.2% | 10.8% | 10.4% | 2.7% | 5.25 | 4.17 | +0.3 |
| 2019 | 27 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | 61 | 0 | 60 | 269 | 57 | 29 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.2% | 10.8% | 10.4% | 2.6% | 5.25 | 4.17 | +0.3 |
| 2020 | 28 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | 20 | 0 | 23 | 93 | 26 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 28.0% | 10.8% | 17.2% | 3.4% | 3.86 | 3.96 | +0.2 |
| 2020 | 28 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | 20 | 0 | 23 | 93 | 26 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 28.0% | 10.8% | 17.2% | 3.2% | 3.86 | 3.83 | +0.2 |
| 2021 | 29 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | 71 | 0 | 74 | 310 | 67 | 32 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.6% | 10.3% | 11.3% | 1.7% | 3.18 | 3.51 | +1.1 |
| 2021 | 29 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | 71 | 0 | 74 | 310 | 67 | 32 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.6% | 10.3% | 11.3% | 1.6% | 3.18 | 3.47 | +1.2 |
| 2022 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 65 | 1 | 55 | 258 | 69 | 22 | 7 | 2% | 0.8 | 26.8% | 8.8% | 18.0% | 2.2% | 5.27 | 3.18 | +0.9 |
| 2022 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 65 | 1 | 55 | 258 | 69 | 22 | 7 | 2% | 0.8 | 26.7% | 8.5% | 18.2% | 2.7% | 5.27 | 3.45 | +0.7 |
| 2024 | 32 | MIX | 2 levels | 11 | 0 | 11 | 48 | 11 | 6 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.9% | 12.5% | 10.4% | 2.1% | 4.91 | 3.89 | — |
| 2024 | 32 | MIX | 2 levels | 11 | 0 | 11 | 48 | 11 | 6 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.9% | 12.5% | 10.4% | 2.1% | 4.91 | 3.92 | — |
| 2025 | 33 | MIX | 2 levels | 54 | 2 | 56 | 238 | 46 | 21 | 6 | 4% | 1.0 | 17.9% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 2.8% | 3.40 | 4.17 | +0.2 |
| 2025 | 33 | MIX | 2 levels | 54 | 2 | 56 | 238 | 46 | 21 | 6 | 4% | 1.0 | 19.3% | 8.8% | 10.5% | 2.5% | 3.40 | 3.98 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 34 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 29 | 0 | 37 | 171 | 44 | 20 | 2 | 0% | 1.3 | 25.6% | 9.0% | 16.6% | 0.9% | 4.82 | 2.59 | +0.9 |
| ROS | 34 | MLB | BAL | 41 | 0 | 43 | 180 | 37 | 15 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.3% | 8.6% | 11.7% | 2.8% | 3.93 | 4.03 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 34 | MLB | BAL | 41 | 0 | 43 | 182 | 37 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.3% | 8.6% | 11.7% | 2.8% | 3.93 | 4.03 | +0.3 |
| 2026 TOT | 34 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 80 | 351 | 81 | 35 | 7 | — | — | 22.9% | 10.1% | 12.8% | 2.0% | 4.34 | 3.36 | +1.5 |
| 2026 FULL | 34 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 52 | 218 | 81 | 35 | 7 | — | — | 36.9% | 16.3% | 20.7% | 3.2% | 6.72 | 3.83 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 35 | MLB | BAL | 48 | 0 | 50 | 213 | 39 | 22 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.2% | 10.4% | 7.8% | 3.2% | 4.84 | 5.02 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 36 | MLB | BAL | 43 | 0 | 45 | 189 | 32 | 21 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.2% | 11.0% | 6.1% | 3.6% | 5.17 | 5.39 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 37 | MLB | BAL | 37 | 0 | 39 | 165 | 26 | 19 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.1% | 11.7% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 5.54 | 5.79 | -0.6 |
| 2027 | 35 | MLB | BAL | 46 | 0 | 48 | 203 | 37 | 21 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.2% | 10.4% | 7.8% | 3.2% | 4.84 | 5.02 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 36 | MLB | BAL | 37 | 0 | 39 | 165 | 28 | 18 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.2% | 11.0% | 6.1% | 3.6% | 5.17 | 5.39 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 37 | MLB | BAL | 29 | 0 | 30 | 127 | 20 | 15 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.1% | 11.7% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 5.54 | 5.79 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 491 | 3 | 501 | 2156 | 468 | 217 | 58 | 1% | 1.0 | 21.7% | 10.0% | 11.7% | 2.7% | 4.39 | 4.03 | +8.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 196 | 1 | 200 | 861 | 187 | 87 | 23 | 1% | 1.0 | 21.7% | 10.0% | 11.7% | 2.7% | 4.39 | 4.03 | +3.2 | ||
| Career | — | 509 | 13 | 613 | 2629 | 566 | 258 | 43 | 3% | 1.2 | 21.5% | 9.8% | 11.7% | 1.7% | 3.76 | 3.43 | +14.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 166 | 4 | 200 | 858 | 185 | 84 | 14 | 3% | 1.2 | 21.5% | 9.8% | 11.7% | 1.7% | 3.76 | 3.43 | +4.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Lou Trivino (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.56 | 19.3% | 8.6% | 3.0% | — | 5.37 | 17.2% | 6.2% | 134 | +0.81 | — | — | — |
| Manny Acosta R 2027 · 3.99 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.99 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.3% | .273 | 3.04 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -0.95 | 3.04 | 102 | 89 |
| Mark Lowe R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.79 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 3.3% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.37 | 153 | 88 |
| Francisco Del Rosario R 2028 · 4.09 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.09 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 2.0% | .267 | 6.61 | 11.9% | -0.6% | 77 | +2.52 | 4.09 | 145 | 84 |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.99 | 18.1% | 11.3% | 1.8% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.99 | 104 | 84 |
| Diego Moreno R 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.82 | 18.6% | 9.4% | 3.8% | .232 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.22 | 187 | 83 |
| Carlos Torres R 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.67 | 17.4% | 9.9% | 3.2% | .304 | 3.59 | 19.8% | 11.6% | 113 | -1.08 | 2.78 | 326 | 83 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.83 | 22.6% | 9.3% | 2.6% | .230 | 4.59 | 19.4% | 12.7% | 78 | +0.76 | 3.83 | 208 | 83 |
| Jean Machi R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.22 | 18.3% | 6.6% | 3.3% | .282 | 3.92 | 18.6% | 12.0% | 67 | -0.30 | 3.92 | 186 | 82 |
| Juan Sandoval R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.77 | 15.4% | 6.0% | 2.2% | .294 | 3.35 | 17.4% | 8.8% | 116 | -0.42 | 3.17 | 225 | 81 |
| Ramon E Ramirez R 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.49 | 18.4% | 6.0% | 2.2% | .262 | 3.63 | 14.0% | 8.2% | 40 | +0.14 | 2.35 | 140 | 81 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.00 | 18.1% | 12.9% | 1.4% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.56 | 147 | 81 |
| Tom Wilhelmsen R 2025 · 5.46 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.46 | 14.3% | 10.4% | 4.1% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.09 | 148 | 79 |
| Jim Johnson R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.89 | 23.8% | 8.6% | 3.1% | .309 | 4.58 | 16.8% | 9.0% | 63 | +0.69 | 2.51 | 251 | 78 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2025 · 4.99 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.99 | 23.4% | 10.7% | 4.6% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.26 | 122 | 78 |
| Chris Hatcher R 2025 · 5.21 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.21 | 18.0% | 9.6% | 4.4% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.05 | 176 | 78 |
| Zack Segovia R 2025 · 3.41 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.41 | 20.2% | 5.9% | 2.3% | .312 | 4.36 | 17.6% | 4.0% | 57 | +0.95 | 3.41 | 144 | 78 |
| Clayton Mortensen R 2024 · 4.62 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.62 | 23.2% | 14.2% | 3.1% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.23 | 221 | 78 |
| Mark Serrano R 2025 · 5.21 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.21 | 20.2% | 7.9% | 5.1% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.03 | 120 | 78 |
| Hector Navarro R 2027 · 4.75 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.75 | 15.0% | 5.4% | 4.1% | .281 | 2.93 | 15.2% | 9.0% | 81 | -1.82 | 2.30 | 126 | 77 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2027 · 3.51 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.51 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 2.7% | .290 | 3.93 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 161 | +0.42 | 3.51 | 219 | 76 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 46 | 17.8% | 10.3% | 1.31 | 4.96 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |