David Sandlin

P Charlotte Knights

Age 26 RHP 6'4" / 215 lbs AAA Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 1.6 · 2027

Overview

AAASP40-MANROOKIEFG #253Pre-ArbFA 2032

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	MIX2 levels	18	18	57	5.34	4.36	33.2%	7.3%	—	K 26.1% · BB 8.2% · FIP 5.64
2025	24	MIX2 levels	32	14	106	4.50	3.44	23.4%	8.8%	—	K 19.2% · BB 9.1% · FIP 3.93
2026	25	MIX3 levels	24	22	110	3.36	3.59	25.1%	10.2%	1.7	K 22.1% · BB 8.9% · FIP 3.78
2027PROJ	26	MLBCWS	22	22	135	4.20	4.35	23.5%	9.2%	0.9
2028PROJ64% MLB	27	MLBCWS	15	15	88	4.34	4.41	23.3%	9.2%	0.5
2029PROJ76% MLB	28	MLBCWS	17	17	104	4.42	4.48	23.1%	9.2%	0.5

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.7 · Next 3 projected WAR 2.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2031Service1.000First FA2032

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Arb-1$5M2030Arb-2$6M2031Arb-3$7M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo78

K%60

xwOBA vs55

Whiff%44

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -1 / P90 10, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 85%

CompsRicky Castro (age 24) · Erik Hiljus (age 28) · Matt Wise (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 111103vR 95

ERA4.20

FIP4.35

K%23.5%

BB%9.2%

K-BB%14.2%

Proj IP135

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 135 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$4M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF3550

CTRL5050

CMD4045

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7896.5

Whiff%

p4424.5%

p6024.0%

xwOBA vs

p550.307

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 1.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$2M	+$0.8M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2029	Arb-1	$5M	+0.5	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-2	$6M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-3	$7M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$2M		$7M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	21	ROK MLE	ACL Royals	1	1	2	7	3	0	0	100%	2.0	42.9%	0.0%	42.9%	0.0%	0.00	-0.52	—
2022	21	ROK RAW	ACL Royals	1	1	2	7	3	0	0	100%	2.0	42.9%	0.0%	42.9%	0.0%	0.00	0.10	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	14	67	271	87	18	9	100%	4.8	24.8%	6.5%	18.3%	4.0%	3.51	4.05	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	14	67	271	87	18	9	100%	4.8	32.1%	6.6%	25.5%	3.3%	3.51	3.06	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	18	57	247	82	18	14	100%	3.2	26.1%	8.2%	17.8%	6.7%	5.34	5.64	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	18	57	247	82	18	14	100%	3.2	26.1%	8.2%	17.8%	6.7%	5.34	5.64	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	18	57	247	82	18	14	100%	3.2	33.2%	7.3%	25.9%	5.7%	5.34	4.36	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	14	106	457	107	40	10	44%	3.3	19.2%	9.1%	10.1%	2.4%	4.50	3.93	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	14	106	457	107	40	10	44%	3.3	19.2%	9.1%	10.1%	2.4%	4.50	3.93	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	14	106	457	107	40	10	44%	3.3	23.4%	8.8%	14.7%	2.2%	4.50	3.44	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	22	110	459	115	47	11	92%	4.6	22.1%	8.9%	13.2%	2.6%	3.36	3.78	+1.5
2026	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	22	110	459	115	47	11	92%	4.6	22.1%	8.9%	13.2%	2.6%	3.36	3.78	+1.5
2026	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	24	22	110	459	115	47	11	92%	4.6	25.1%	10.2%	14.8%	2.4%	3.36	3.59	+1.7
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			8	6	40	167	40	13	7	75%	5.0	24.0%	7.8%	16.2%	4.2%	5.58	4.34	+0.3
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	CWS	22	22	135	570	134	53	18	100%	6.1	23.5%	9.2%	14.2%	3.1%	4.20	4.35	+0.9
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	CWS	23	23	137	580	135	53	18	100%	6.0	23.3%	9.2%	14.2%	3.1%	4.31	4.38	+0.8
2029	28	MLB MLE	CWS	23	23	137	580	134	53	19	100%	6.0	23.1%	9.2%	13.9%	3.2%	4.39	4.45	+0.7
2030	29	MLB MLE	CWS	22	22	131	554	124	52	19	100%	6.0	22.4%	9.3%	13.1%	3.3%	4.52	4.60	+0.5
2031	30	MLB MLE	CWS	21	21	123	520	113	50	18	100%	5.9	21.7%	9.6%	12.1%	3.5%	4.69	4.80	+0.1
2032	31	MLB MLE	CWS	19	19	115	485	102	48	18	100%	6.0	21.0%	10.0%	11.0%	3.8%	4.90	5.03	-0.2
2028	27	MLB CTX	CWS	15	15	88	372	87	34	12	100%	5.9	23.3%	9.2%	14.2%	3.2%	4.34	4.41	+0.5
2029	28	MLB CTX	CWS	17	17	104	439	101	40	14	100%	6.1	23.1%	9.2%	13.9%	3.3%	4.42	4.48	+0.5
2030	29	MLB CTX	CWS	18	18	107	452	101	42	15	100%	5.9	22.4%	9.3%	13.1%	3.4%	4.55	4.63	+0.4
2031	30	MLB CTX	CWS	18	18	106	448	97	43	16	100%	5.9	21.7%	9.6%	12.1%	3.6%	4.72	4.83	+0.1
2032	31	MLB CTX	CWS	17	17	102	431	90	43	16	100%	6.0	21.0%	10.0%	11.0%	3.8%	4.94	5.07	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		93	91	548	2311	518	216	81	98%	5.9	22.4%	9.3%	13.1%	3.5%	4.67	4.32	+3.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	33	200	843	189	79	30	98%	5.9	22.4%	9.3%	13.1%	3.5%	4.67	4.32	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		89	69	342	1441	324	120	50	78%	3.8	22.5%	8.4%	14.1%	3.5%	4.06	4.18	+2.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	40	200	844	190	70	29	78%	3.8	22.5%	8.4%	14.1%	3.5%	4.06	4.18	+0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
David Sandlin (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.35	23.5%	9.2%	3.1%	—	4.47	23.0%	13.7%	406	+0.12	—	—	—
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	80
Erik Hiljus R 2001 · 3.35 FIP	28	SP-	3.35	23.1%	6.9%	2.4%	.321	6.07	14.1%	4.4%	46	+2.72	3.35	112	78
Matt Wise R 2001 · 4.98 FIP	25	SP-	4.98	23.7%	8.1%	5.2%	.271	3.50	13.5%	7.2%	53	-1.48	3.33	302	75
Dylan DeLucia R 2024 · 3.88 FIP	23	SP	3.88	21.6%	7.4%	3.0%	.241	5.29	18.0%	7.2%	197	+1.41	3.88	232	75
Zack Lee R 2024 · 3.51 FIP	23	SP-	3.51	19.2%	7.0%	2.1%	.293	4.54	15.0%	6.5%	153	+1.03	3.22	236	73
Peter Van Loon R 2024 · 3.27 FIP	25	SP	3.27	25.5%	11.9%	1.5%	.303	4.20	21.0%	10.9%	53	+0.93	2.51	256	73
Jake Lee R 2021 · 3.76 FIP	26	SP	3.76	20.5%	9.7%	2.1%	.362	5.42	16.1%	9.6%	113	+1.66	2.78	181	73
Jake Walters R 2022 · 4.03 FIP	26	SP-	4.03	17.0%	9.4%	2.1%	.316	5.85	15.2%	1.3%	72	+1.82	3.51	261	72
Nick Payero R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	24	SP-	4.21	16.5%	6.3%	3.1%	.285	5.81	16.6%	4.6%	107	+1.60	4.21	178	72
Mitch Neunborn R 2023 · 3.65 FIP	26	SP-	3.65	24.5%	9.5%	2.6%	.232	5.11	17.6%	6.7%	206	+1.46	3.65	248	72
Antonio Guzman R 2015 · 3.60 FIP	27	SP	3.60	18.8%	11.2%	1.2%	.328	3.47	20.6%	11.3%	170	-0.13	3.15	254	72
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	72
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	72
Braxton Bragg R 2024 · 3.70 FIP	23	SP	3.70	22.3%	6.4%	3.0%	.325	2.58	26.2%	18.1%	59	-1.12	2.58	155	72
Brendan Beck R 2023 · 3.19 FIP	24	SP	3.19	22.5%	6.7%	2.1%	.289	3.67	22.0%	14.9%	279	+0.48	3.19	310	71
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.27	22.8%	15.4%	121	+0.08	2.98	262	71
Ben Casparius R 2024 · 3.60 FIP	25	SP	3.60	23.7%	11.5%	1.9%	.268	3.66	20.6%	12.2%	88	+0.06	3.36	374	71
Jonathan Pintaro R 2024 · 3.42 FIP	26	SP	3.42	18.9%	9.4%	1.3%	.264	4.07	23.9%	12.1%	153	+0.65	3.42	223	71
Ramon Ramirez R 2008 · 4.31 FIP	25	SP-	4.31	20.0%	10.5%	2.9%	.200	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	182	71
Ryan Jennings R 2024 · 3.60 FIP	25	SP	3.60	20.4%	10.4%	1.7%	.286	4.93	25.0%	10.3%	58	+1.33	3.43	142	70

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.1	117	22.6%	9.3%	1.30	4.54
Jack Bentley ('13-'27, 5 WAR*)	3.6	143	21.1%*	9.8%*	1.35*	4.67*
John Patterson ('07)	2.3	76	21.2%	9.1%	1.19	4.32
Ken Kravec ('75-'82, 5 WAR*)	4.3	123	23.6%*	10.7%*	1.11*	4.73*
John Maine ('13)	3.0	99	19.5%	10.5%	1.23	4.45
Bob Weiland ('28-'40, 10 WAR*)	6.9	139	22.6%*	9.9%*	1.15*	4.26*
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	106	20.5%	9.7%	1.30	4.61