Ryan Cermak — OGILVIE

Ryan CermakSS Bowling Green Hot Rods

Age 25 R/R 6'0" / 205 lbs A+ HR +6%H +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2026 ROS PROJECTION159 act + 16 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†72

AVG/OBP/SLG.200 / .250 / .400

PA16

HR0

K%38

BB%6

BABIP290

ISO200

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$1M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 20 / POW 46

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT20

scouting grade only

POWER46

scouting grade only

EYE46

scouting grade only

SPEED64

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2022	21	ROK	FCL Rays	—	24	22	6	0	1	2	1	9	1	3	0	273	333	636	970	364	364	38	4	414	166	+2	+1	—	—	+1	0.3
2023	22	A	Charleston RiverDogs	—	160	142	38	8	1	6	14	36	3	8	2	268	344	465	809	197	320	22	9	357	128	+5	+1	—	—	+3	1.0
2023	22	ROK	FCL Rays	—	15	13	3	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	231	333	308	641	77	250	7	7	302	90	-0	+0	—	—	+0	0.0
2024	23	A+	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	185	155	31	3	2	3	21	61	6	12	0	200	319	303	622	103	298	33	11	288	81	-4	+2	—	—	+4	0.2
2024	23	ROK	FCL Rays	—	29	20	6	3	0	1	7	6	2	3	1	300	517	600	1.117	300	385	21	24	486	215	+4	+0	—	—	+1	0.5
2025	24	A+	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	100	89	20	6	1	3	9	30	2	7	2	225	310	416	726	191	304	30	9	324	105	+1	+1	—	—	+2	0.3
2025	24	ROK	FCL Rays	—	22	19	9	5	0	3	2	1	1	1	0	474	545	1.211	1.756	737	400	5	9	714	369	+7	+0	—	—	+0	0.8
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2022	21	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	—	24	22	4	0	1	1	1	13	1	3	0	182	250	409	659	227	277	54	4	249	55	-1	+1	—	—	+1	-0.0
2023	22	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	—	160	149	30	6	1	5	8	52	3	8	2	201	256	356	612	154	269	32	5	260	62	-7	+1	—	—	+3	-0.3
2023	22	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	—	15	13	3	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	231	333	308	641	77	196	7	7	222	36	-1	+0	—	—	+0	-0.1
2024	23	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	185	162	21	2	1	2	14	85	6	12	0	130	225	191	417	62	246	46	8	202	23	-17	+2	—	—	+4	-1.1
2024	23	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	—	29	23	5	2	0	1	4	9	2	3	1	217	379	435	814	217	295	31	14	345	120	+1	+0	—	—	+1	0.2
2025	24	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	100	92	15	4	1	2	6	39	2	7	2	163	230	293	523	130	248	39	6	232	43	-7	+1	—	—	+2	-0.4
2025	24	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	—	22	20	8	4	0	3	1	1	1	1	0	400	455	1.050	1.505	650	285	5	5	572	273	+5	+0	—	—	+0	0.5
2022	21	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	—	24	22	4	0	1	1	1	13	1	3	0	182	250	409	659	227	375	54	4	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	ROK RAW	FCL Rays	—	24	22	6	0	1	2	1	9	1	3	0	273	333	636	970	364	364	38	4	414	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	175	162	33	7	1	5	9	53	4	8	2	204	263	352	615	148	269	30	5	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A RAW	2 teams	—	175	155	41	9	1	6	15	37	4	8	2	265	343	452	794	187	312	21	9	352	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	214	185	27	5	1	3	18	94	8	15	1	146	251	232	484	86	264	44	8	221	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	214	175	37	6	2	4	28	67	8	15	1	211	346	337	683	126	308	31	13	314	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	122	112	23	8	1	5	7	41	3	8	2	205	270	429	699	223	273	34	6	293	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	122	108	29	11	1	6	11	31	3	8	2	269	352	556	908	287	324	25	9	394	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	—	24	22	4	0	1	1	1	13	1	3	0	182	250	409	659	227	277	54	4	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	175	160	33	7	1	5	9	53	4	8	2	206	263	356	619	150	263	30	5	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	214	186	27	5	1	3	18	94	8	15	1	145	251	231	482	86	253	44	8	221	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	122	111	23	8	1	5	7	41	3	8	2	207	270	432	703	225	255	34	6	293	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	175	160	33	7	1	5	9	53	4	8	2	206	263	356	619	150	263	30	5	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	214	186	27	5	1	3	18	94	8	15	1	145	251	231	482	86	253	44	8	221	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	122	111	23	8	1	5	7	41	3	8	2	207	270	432	703	225	255	34	6	293	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	25	A+ MLE	TB	—	159	139	28	2	0	10	11	79	9	16	4	201	302	432	734	230	360	50	7	311	96	-1	+2	+0	+2	+3	0.6
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	ROK RAW	TB	—	19	13	7	0	0	3	3	4	3	2	1	538	684	1.231	1.915	692	667	21	16	745	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	25	A RAW	TB	—	31	27	7	1	0	2	2	12	2	1	0	259	355	519	873	259	385	39	6	385	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	25	A+ RAW	TB	—	109	92	24	2	0	9	13	42	4	13	3	261	376	576	952	315	366	39	12	413	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	25	A+ MLE	TB	0%	16	15	3	0	0	1	1	6	0	1	0	200	250	400	650	200	282	38	6	274	72	-1	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
TOT	25	A+ MLE	TB	—	175	154	31	2	0	11	12	85	9	17	4	201	297	429	726	227	345	49	7	307	94	-1	+2	+0	+2	+4	0.6
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	TB	30%	194	174	34	6	1	6	14	71	4	6	1	195	271	345	616	149	283	37	7	279	75	-6	+1	+0	+2	+4	0.1
2028	27	MLB MLE	TB	42%	266	238	48	8	1	9	20	94	6	8	2	202	280	357	637	155	284	35	8	283	77	-7	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.2
2029	28	MLB MLE	TB	48%	315	281	57	10	1	10	24	110	7	9	2	203	282	352	634	149	284	35	8	284	78	-8	+1	-1	+3	+7	0.2
2030	29	MLB MLE	TB	49%	339	303	62	11	1	11	26	118	7	9	2	205	283	356	639	152	284	35	8	283	78	-9	+1	-1	+4	+7	0.2
2031	30	MLB MLE	TB	50%	355	318	63	11	1	11	27	124	7	9	2	198	276	343	618	145	283	35	8	280	76	-10	+1	-2	+4	+8	0.0
2027	26	MLB CTX	TB	30%	59	54	11	2	0	2	4	22	1	2	0	204	271	352	623	148	292	37	7	269	75	-2	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.1
2028	27	MLB CTX	TB	42%	111	100	21	4	0	4	8	39	2	3	1	210	282	370	652	160	293	35	7	273	77	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.1
2029	28	MLB CTX	TB	48%	150	135	28	5	1	5	11	52	3	4	1	207	282	370	652	163	293	35	7	275	78	-4	+0	-0	+2	+3	0.1
2030	29	MLB CTX	TB	49%	167	149	30	5	1	5	13	58	3	4	1	201	279	349	628	148	292	35	8	274	78	-4	+0	-1	+2	+4	0.1
2031	30	MLB CTX	TB	50%	178	158	34	6	1	6	14	62	4	4	1	215	295	380	675	165	291	35	8	272	76	-5	+0	-1	+2	+4	0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	665	596	124	22	3	22	50	233	13	17	4	208	284	366	650	158	296	35	8	273	71	-18	+2	-2	+7	+14	0.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	583	122	22	3	22	49	228	13	17	4	209	286	370	656	161	297	35	8	273	71	-18	+2	-2	+7	+14	0.3
Career	—	MLE		—	2020	1810	354	66	9	62	147	724	47	76	14	196	273	345	618	149	282	36	7	274	71	-41	+5	-4	+16	+32	0.8
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	582	114	21	3	20	47	233	15	24	5	196	273	345	619	149	282	36	7	274	71	-18	+2	-2	+7	+14	0.4

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	4.9	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
/162	664	20	13	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#3J.P. Arencibialast yr '15 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,650 PA	2.5	1,650	78	2	213	260	414	+29	-4	4.2	4.2
/162	664	31	1	+11.9	-1.7	1.7	pk7: 4
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	1.0	666	21	19	201	276	351	+7	+6	0.9	0.9
/162	664	21	19	+7.1	+6.0	0.9	pk7: 1
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Ryan Cermak (OGILVIE)	25	20	46	64	46	189/268/336	147	282	4	5	38%	7%	72	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Bradlee Beesley 2023 · AA	25	40	45	55→60	37	201/256/323	123	294	12	21	35%	6%	63	-1.4	207/285/328	121	308	10	26	34%	8%	75	-0.5	192/286/323	131	289	10	39	34%	8%	71	-0.4
✕Willie MacIver 2022 · AA	25	37→35	45→50	51→55	39	190/251/306	117	268	13	16	34%	6%	57	-1.8	204/278/330	126	297	13	15	34%	8%	73	-0.6	231/310/361	130	325	12	18	30%	8%	89	+0.3
✕Kyle Datres 2022 · A	26	40→42	47→50	54→55	46	201/285/337	136	272	14	18	30%	9%	78	-0.3	212/290/348	136	290	16	23	31%	8%	82	-0.0	203/285/337	134	276	17	26	31%	8%	75	-0.3
✕Andrew Cain 2015 · A	25	41→37	45→50	57→50	39	207/258/333	126	286	12	14	31%	6%	65	-1.2	190/248/312	122	317	13	9	41%	7%	57	-1.8	153/216/273	120	258	13	8	44%	7%	34	-2.2
✕Jeter Downs 2022 · AAA	24	35→40	46→50	53→55	40	185/248/306	121	260	15	19	34%	7%	56	-1.9	181/262/305	124	259	14	22	34%	8%	62	-1.4	171/263/306	134	238	15	26	33%	8%	61	-0.7
✕Jason Martinson 2014 · AA	25	38→41	47→45	55→50	39	191/262/320	129	299	15	15	39%	8%	64	-1.3	190/248/296	106	296	11	14	37%	6%	53	-2.1	164/223/265	101	276	11	8	42%	6%	34	-2.5
✕Andrés Alvarez 2023 · AA	26	39→31	49→45	56→50	45	201/278/345	144	282	17	20	34%	9%	76	-0.4	201/264/313	112	285	11	12	32%	7%	63	-1.3	191/251/288	96	270	9	8	31%	6%	50	-1.3
✕Troy Stokes Jr. 2021 · AAA	25	39→38	45→50	53→55	44	198/278/323	125	278	13	16	32%	8%	72	-0.7	198/274/306	108	267	10	16	28%	8%	65	-1.2	157/242/244	87	210	7	20	27%	8%	37	-1.4
✕Jorge Mateo 2020 · AAA	25	41→48	44→50	58→65	35	202/241/326	124	291	10	24	33%	4%	57	-1.8	218/260/349	131	301	12	25	30%	5%	70	-0.9	213/255/343	130	274	13	52	27%	5%	65	-0.4
✕Adam Engel 2018 · MLB	26	39→48	43→50	57→60	40	194/257/310	116	274	9	24	32%	6%	60	-1.6	221/275/344	123	302	11	17	29%	5%	74	-0.5	223/283/355	132	299	13	23	29%	5%	77	-0.2
✕Brandon Martorano 2023 · AA	25	39	46→45	54→50	40	194/269/329	134	303	14	12	38%	8%	69	-0.9	190/267/303	113	306	12	8	39%	9%	63	-1.4	158/248/249	90	256	12	2	40%	10%	42	-1.0
✕Max George 2021 · A	25	40→38	41→45	54→55	43	195/279/294	99	285	9	20	32%	8%	65	-1.2	194/281/318	124	323	13	15	41%	8%	72	-0.7	150/259/288	138	250	17	20	43%	10%	55	-0.8
✕Alerick Soularie 2023 · A	24	39	44→45	53→60	44	192/273/305	114	293	11	16	36%	9%	65	-1.2	199/280/310	111	290	12	26	33%	9%	70	-0.9	181/272/285	104	255	13	39	32%	9%	60	-0.6
✕Billy Cook 2023 · A	24	36→42	47→50	57→55	33	182/239/318	135	298	14	20	42%	5%	55	-1.9	203/262/336	133	286	15	22	33%	6%	68	-1.0	207/271/333	126	286	14	25	31%	7%	68	-0.6
✕Jason Lopez 2022 · AA	24	39	42→50	54→45	41	191/254/290	99	287	9	12	35%	8%	54	-2.0	206/269/313	107	301	10	9	33%	8%	65	-1.2	165/225/251	86	232	8	0	31%	7%	32	-0.7
✕Cory Vaughn 2014 · AA	25	41→42	45	53→50	43	205/281/329	124	284	13	14	31%	8%	74	-0.6	189/257/296	107	273	11	13	33%	7%	57	-1.8	162/232/259	97	233	10	12	34%	7%	37	-1.8
✕Joe Suozzi 2023 · A	25	41	43→45	53→50	34	191/261/302	111	326	11	14	42%	6%	60	-1.6	214/285/308	94	337	9	10	36%	7%	70	-0.8	231/300/312	81	347	8	8	33%	7%	74	-0.4
✕Grae Kessinger 2023 · AA	25	35→31	44→45	49→50	44	183/254/292	109	241	13	18	30%	8%	55	-1.9	205/280/316	111	277	12	12	28%	9%	70	-0.8	179/261/273	93	244	9	8	29%	9%	52	-0.9
✕DaShawn Keirsey Jr. 2022 · A	25	35→45	46→45	54→60	39	182/252/314	132	284	14	16	39%	8%	59	-1.6	237/289/352	115	330	10	32	29%	6%	81	-0.1	249/302/364	115	340	10	36	28%	6%	86	+0.2
✕Kyle Gaedele 2015 · AA	25	41→43	44→45	54→50	40	201/262/324	122	289	11	16	33%	7%	65	-1.2	205/273/341	136	339	15	10	41%	8%	74	-0.6	180/259/326	147	314	17	7	45%	8%	63	-0.7

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps