Ryan Cermak
SS Bowling Green Hot Rods| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 23 | A+/ROKTB | 214 | .211/.346/.337 | 4 | 15 | 32 | — | .141/.241/.223 |
| 2025 | 24 | A+/ROKTB | 122 | .269/.352/.556 | 6 | 8 | 78 | — | .204/.262/.445 |
| 2026 | 25 | A+/A/ROK/INTL2 orgs | 186 | .296/.398/.623 | 16 | 16 | 105 | — | .203/.296/.436 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 26 | MLBTB | 209 | .194/.262/.354 | 7 | 6 | 72 | 0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ26% MLB | 27 | MLBTB | 19 | .196/.265/.352 | 1 | 1 | 73 | 0.0 | |
| 2029PROJ39% MLB | 28 | MLBTB | 51 | .197/.266/.350 | 2 | 1 | 73 | -0.0 |
Tools · ContractCON 20 / POW 58
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 21 | ROK | FCL Rays | — | 24 | 22 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 273 | 333 | 636 | 970 | 364 | 364 | 38 | 4 | 414 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 160 | 142 | 38 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 14 | 36 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 268 | 344 | 465 | 809 | 197 | 320 | 22 | 9 | 357 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | ROK | FCL Rays | — | 15 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 231 | 333 | 308 | 641 | 77 | 250 | 7 | 7 | 302 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 185 | 155 | 31 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 21 | 61 | 6 | 12 | 0 | 200 | 319 | 303 | 622 | 103 | 298 | 33 | 11 | 288 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | ROK | FCL Rays | — | 29 | 20 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 300 | 517 | 600 | 1.117 | 300 | 385 | 21 | 24 | 486 | 113 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | A+ | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 100 | 89 | 20 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 30 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 225 | 310 | 416 | 726 | 191 | 304 | 30 | 9 | 324 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | ROK | FCL Rays | — | 22 | 19 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 474 | 545 | 1.211 | 1.756 | 737 | 400 | 5 | 9 | 714 | 258 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | A+ | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 109 | 92 | 24 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 13 | 42 | 4 | 13 | 3 | 261 | 376 | 576 | 952 | 315 | 366 | 39 | 12 | 413 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | A | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 31 | 27 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 259 | 355 | 519 | 873 | 259 | 385 | 39 | 6 | 385 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | ROK | FCL Rays | — | 19 | 13 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 538 | 684 | 1.231 | 1.915 | 692 | 667 | 21 | 16 | 745 | 250 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | INTL | Venados de Mazatlan | — | 27 | 27 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 333 | 333 | 593 | 926 | 259 | 350 | 19 | 0 | 403 | 159 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 21 | ROK MLE | FCL Rays | — | 24 | 22 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 182 | 250 | 409 | 659 | 227 | 272 | 54 | 4 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A MLE | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 160 | 148 | 29 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 50 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 196 | 256 | 331 | 587 | 135 | 265 | 31 | 6 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | ROK MLE | FCL Rays | — | 15 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 231 | 333 | 308 | 641 | 77 | 191 | 7 | 7 | 217 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ MLE | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 185 | 163 | 21 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 84 | 6 | 12 | 0 | 129 | 220 | 190 | 410 | 61 | 232 | 45 | 7 | 197 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | ROK MLE | FCL Rays | — | 29 | 23 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 217 | 379 | 435 | 814 | 217 | 284 | 31 | 14 | 335 | 113 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | A+ MLE | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 100 | 93 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 38 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 172 | 230 | 333 | 563 | 161 | 232 | 38 | 5 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | ROK MLE | FCL Rays | — | 22 | 20 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 350 | 409 | 950 | 1.359 | 600 | 270 | 5 | 5 | 549 | 258 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | A+ MLE | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 109 | 98 | 18 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 55 | 4 | 13 | 3 | 184 | 266 | 408 | 674 | 224 | 298 | 50 | 6 | 286 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | A MLE | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 31 | 28 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 179 | 258 | 321 | 579 | 143 | 325 | 52 | 3 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | ROK MLE | FCL Rays | — | 19 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 357 | 526 | 786 | 1.312 | 429 | 457 | 32 | 11 | 537 | 250 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | ROK MLE | FCL Rays | — | 24 | 22 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 182 | 250 | 409 | 659 | 227 | 375 | 54 | 4 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | ROK RAW | FCL Rays | — | 24 | 22 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 273 | 333 | 636 | 970 | 364 | 364 | 38 | 4 | 414 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 175 | 161 | 32 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 51 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 199 | 263 | 329 | 592 | 130 | 264 | 29 | 6 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 175 | 155 | 41 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 15 | 37 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 265 | 343 | 452 | 794 | 187 | 312 | 21 | 9 | 352 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 214 | 186 | 27 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 92 | 8 | 15 | 1 | 145 | 246 | 231 | 478 | 86 | 255 | 43 | 8 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 214 | 175 | 37 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 28 | 67 | 8 | 15 | 1 | 211 | 346 | 337 | 683 | 126 | 308 | 31 | 13 | 314 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 122 | 113 | 21 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 40 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 186 | 246 | 398 | 644 | 212 | 235 | 33 | 5 | 284 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 122 | 108 | 29 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 11 | 31 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 269 | 352 | 556 | 908 | 287 | 324 | 25 | 9 | 394 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | A+ MLE | 4 teams | — | 186 | 165 | 32 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 12 | 90 | 9 | 16 | 4 | 194 | 285 | 424 | 709 | 230 | 317 | 48 | 6 | 309 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | A+ RAW | 4 teams | — | 186 | 159 | 47 | 4 | 0 | 16 | 18 | 63 | 9 | 16 | 4 | 296 | 398 | 623 | 1.020 | 327 | 388 | 34 | 10 | 441 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | ROK MLE | FCL Rays | — | 24 | 22 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 182 | 250 | 409 | 659 | 227 | 272 | 54 | 4 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 175 | 159 | 32 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 51 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 201 | 263 | 333 | 596 | 132 | 259 | 29 | 6 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 214 | 187 | 27 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 92 | 8 | 15 | 1 | 144 | 246 | 230 | 476 | 86 | 239 | 43 | 8 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 122 | 112 | 21 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 40 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 188 | 246 | 402 | 648 | 214 | 239 | 33 | 5 | 284 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | A+ MLE | 4 teams | — | 186 | 163 | 32 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 12 | 90 | 9 | 16 | 4 | 196 | 285 | 429 | 714 | 233 | 322 | 48 | 6 | 309 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 214 | 187 | 27 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 92 | 8 | 15 | 1 | 144 | 246 | 230 | 476 | 86 | 239 | 43 | 8 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 122 | 112 | 21 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 40 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 188 | 246 | 402 | 648 | 214 | 239 | 33 | 5 | 284 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | A+ MLE | 4 teams | — | 186 | 163 | 32 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 12 | 90 | 9 | 16 | 4 | 196 | 285 | 429 | 714 | 233 | 322 | 48 | 6 | 309 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB MLE | TB | 0% | 209 | 189 | 36 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 14 | 73 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 194 | 262 | 354 | 616 | 160 | 265 | 35 | 7 | 275 | 72 | -7 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +5 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 27 | MLB MLE | TB | 26% | 73 | 67 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 195 | 264 | 354 | 618 | 159 | 266 | 34 | 7 | 276 | 73 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +2 | 0.0 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB MLE | TB | 39% | 130 | 118 | 23 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 44 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 196 | 265 | 353 | 618 | 157 | 266 | 34 | 7 | 276 | 73 | -4 | +0 | -1 | +1 | +3 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB CTX | TB | 26% | 19 | 18 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 196 | 265 | 352 | 616 | 156 | 269 | 37 | 5 | 275 | 73 | -1 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | 0.0 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB CTX | TB | 39% | 51 | 47 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 17 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 197 | 266 | 350 | 616 | 153 | 269 | 33 | 6 | 275 | 73 | -2 | +0 | -0 | +1 | +1 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 70 | 65 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 24 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 215 | 271 | 400 | 671 | 185 | 289 | 34 | 6 | 275 | 66 | -2 | +0 | -0 | +1 | +2 | 0.0 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 604 | 130 | 28 | 0 | 28 | 37 | 223 | 9 | 19 | 0 | 215 | 271 | 401 | 671 | 185 | 289 | 34 | 6 | 275 | 66 | -21 | +4 | -3 | +7 | +14 | 0.1 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 973 | 877 | 160 | 28 | 5 | 34 | 63 | 372 | 29 | 56 | 10 | 182 | 260 | 342 | 602 | 160 | 265 | 38 | 6 | 265 | 66 | -8 | +1 | -1 | +3 | +5 | 0.0 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 586 | 107 | 19 | 3 | 23 | 42 | 249 | 19 | 37 | 7 | 183 | 260 | 343 | 603 | 160 | 265 | 38 | 6 | 265 | 66 | -21 | +2 | -2 | +7 | +14 | 0.0 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 A+Bowling Green Hot Rods · 109 PAwOBA .399 → .286 (−113)K% 38.5% → 50.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 38.53% | ÷1.000 | ×1.310 | — | — | 50.48% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.01% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.978 | 6.46% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.67% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.978 | 2.76% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.870 | — | ×0.978 | 22.12% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.978 | 3.05% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 18.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.978 | 15.49% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .399 → .286; ISO .315 → .236; BABIP .366 → .298. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 ACharleston RiverDogs · 31 PAwOBA .374 → .250 (−125)K% 38.7% → 52.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 38.71% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 52.65% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.45% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.970 | 4.32% |
| HBP% /PA | 6.45% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.970 | 4.88% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.67% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.970 | 23.80% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.67% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.970 | 5.37% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.970 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 13.33% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.970 | 10.35% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.0 → −3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .374 → .250; ISO .259 → .159; BABIP .385 → .325. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 ROKFCL Rays · 19 PAwOBA .725 → .537 (−188)K% 21.1% → 30.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.05% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 30.32% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.79% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.945 | 9.25% |
| HBP% /PA | 15.79% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.945 | 10.74% |
| Singles /BIP | 44.44% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.945 | 34.44% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.945 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.945 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 33.33% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.945 | 24.57% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 19.5 → −5.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .725 → .537; ISO .692 → .535; BABIP .667 → .457. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 A+Bowling Green Hot Rods · 100 PAwOBA .311 → .226 (−85)K% 30.0% → 38.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.00% | ÷1.023 | ×1.310 | — | — | 38.41% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.00% | ÷0.965 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.988 | 4.91% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.00% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.988 | 1.52% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.95% | ÷1.005 | ×0.870 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 13.77% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.17% | ÷1.066 | ×0.780 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 6.98% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.69% | ÷0.996 | ×0.850 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 1.36% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.08% | ÷0.930 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.988 | 4.75% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 101, 2B 113, 3B 99, K 105, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .311 → .226; ISO .191 → .148; BABIP .304 → .232. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ROKFCL Rays · 22 PAwOBA .692 → .549 (−143)K% 4.5% → 6.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 4.55% | ÷0.985 | ×1.440 | — | — | 6.65% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.09% | ÷0.991 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.955 | 5.43% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.55% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.955 | 3.13% |
| Singles /BIP | 5.56% | ÷1.018 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.955 | 4.27% |
| Doubles /BIP | 27.78% | ÷1.026 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.955 | 18.61% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.955 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 16.67% | ÷0.809 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.955 | 15.34% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 62, 1B 104, 2B 105, 3B 130, K 97, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 19.5 → −4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .692 → .549; ISO .737 → .635; BABIP .400 → .270. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Bowling Green Hot Rods · 185 PAwOBA .285 → .197 (−89)K% 33.0% → 45.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 32.97% | ÷0.956 | ×1.310 | — | — | 45.16% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.35% | ÷0.972 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.998 | 6.99% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.24% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.998 | 2.49% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.47% | ÷1.047 | ×0.870 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 19.27% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.19% | ÷0.898 | ×0.780 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 2.63% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.13% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 1.49% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.19% | ÷1.015 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 2.76% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 109, 2B 80, 3B 130, K 91, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .285 → .197; ISO .103 → .075; BABIP .298 → .232. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ROKFCL Rays · 29 PAwOBA .475 → .335 (−139)K% 20.7% → 30.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.69% | ÷0.980 | ×1.440 | — | — | 30.42% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 24.14% | ÷1.024 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.965 | 14.10% |
| HBP% /PA | 6.90% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.965 | 4.79% |
| Singles /BIP | 14.29% | ÷1.024 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.965 | 11.04% |
| Doubles /BIP | 21.43% | ÷0.941 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.965 | 15.82% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.965 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.14% | ÷1.002 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.965 | 5.36% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 105, 2B 88, 3B 130, K 96, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 19.5 → −3.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .475 → .335; ISO .300 → .235; BABIP .385 → .284. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ACharleston RiverDogs · 160 PAwOBA .348 → .258 (−89)K% 22.5% → 31.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.50% | ÷0.985 | ×1.360 | — | — | 31.07% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.75% | ÷1.035 | ×0.690 | — | — | 5.83% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.88% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 1.46% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.70% | ÷1.071 | ×0.920 | ×0.973 | — | 18.13% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.55% | ÷0.964 | ×0.830 | ×0.973 | — | 6.32% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.94% | ÷0.938 | ×0.910 | ×0.973 | — | 0.89% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.66% | ÷1.075 | ×0.800 | — | — | 4.21% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 115, 1B 114, 2B 93, 3B 88, K 97, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.973.
Result: wOBA .348 → .258; ISO .197 → .144; BABIP .320 → .265. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .