Graham Pauley

3B Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp

Age 26 L/R 6'1" / 200 lbs AAA HR -10%H -3% Svc 1.029 · Ctrl thru 2031

Overview

AAA40-MANPre-ArbFA 2032

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR
2024	23	MLBSD	32	.125/.125/.312	2	0	11	-0.2
2025	24	MLBMIA	184	.224/.313/.366	4	2	99	1.2
2026	25	MLBMIA	154	.211/.258/.373	4	1	80	-0.0
2027PROJ45% MLB	26	MLBMIA	158	.206/.279/.361	5	3	86	0.2
2028PROJ56% MLB	27	MLBMIA	221	.205/.278/.359	7	3	85	0.3
2029PROJ62% MLB	28	MLBMIA	248	.203/.275/.354	7	3	84	0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.0 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2031Service1.029First FA2032

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Arb-1$1M2030Arb-2$1M2031Arb-3$1M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

Whiff%90

Chase%90

Bat Spd59

Barrel%33

Speed27

xwOBA16

Form.220/.288/.413 ▲ rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .214/.284/.380

CompsCésar Salazar (age 27) · Quincy Hamilton (age 26) · Paul McIntosh (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 8086vR 88

AVG/OBP/SLG.206 / .279 / .361

PA158

HR5

K%23

BB%8

BABIP243

ISO168

MLB%45%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$2M ctrl surplus

Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 40 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT40

Whiff%

906.7%

xAVG

100.207

POWER40

Barrel%

336.0

Avg EV

1085.6

Bat Spd

5972.3

EYE50

Chase%

9018.4%

SPEED45

Sprint

2726.4

Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ

K%24%▼26% over 39 PA (60d) · proj 24%

BB%8%·8% over 39 PA (60d) · proj 8%

ISO.193▲.324 over 34 AB (60d) · proj .166

BABIP.253·.286 over 21 BIP (60d) · proj .253

SLASH.220/.288/.413▲proj .214/.284/.380

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 269 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

245

—

wRC+

115

◀◀L

wOBA

338

277

◀◀L

ISO

111

146

▶▶R

BABIP

250

257

—

8.3%

25.7%

◀◀L

BB%

20.8%

7.8%

◀◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2024

Service 1.029 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.5M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2029	Arb-1	$1M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-2	$1M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-3	$1M	—	—	—
Totals		$2M		$3M	+$0.9M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2022	21	A	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	72	58	19	4	0	2	12	10	2	6	3	328	458	500	958	172	370	14	17	429	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	ROK	ACL Padres	—	57	47	10	3	1	2	9	7	0	0	0	213	339	447	786	234	205	12	16	343	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	AA	San Antonio Missions	—	88	81	26	10	0	3	7	12	0	2	0	321	375	556	931	235	348	14	8	406	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A+	Fort Wayne TinCaps	—	187	170	51	8	0	16	13	41	3	8	2	300	360	629	990	329	307	22	7	424	126	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	276	230	71	14	5	4	40	40	5	12	3	309	422	465	887	157	360	14	14	396	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	INTL	Peoria Javelinas	—	90	84	20	4	0	5	4	18	0	4	0	238	273	464	737	226	238	20	4	314	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	32	32	4	0	0	2	0	15	0	0	0	125	125	312	438	188	133	47	0	187	11	-3	+0	-1	+2	+1	-0.2
2024	23	AAA	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	—	321	272	61	15	1	10	40	67	7	3	4	224	339	397	736	173	259	21	12	332	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AA	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	160	138	33	8	0	4	18	35	1	4	0	239	331	384	715	145	284	22	11	318	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	MLB	Miami Marlins	—	184	161	36	9	1	4	21	36	0	2	0	224	313	366	680	143	262	20	11	305	99	-0	+0	+6	+1	+4	1.2
2025	24	AAA	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	—	155	137	36	10	0	8	14	18	3	5	0	263	344	511	855	248	250	12	9	373	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	MLB	Miami Marlins	—	154	142	30	9	1	4	8	37	1	1	1	211	258	373	632	162	255	24	5	275	80	-4	-0	-1	+1	+3	-0.0
2026	25	AAA	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	—	193	165	39	10	1	7	24	51	1	6	1	236	337	436	773	200	291	26	12	339	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	370	335	70	18	2	10	29	88	1	3	1	209	274	364	638	155	251	24	8	282	77	-10	+0	+4	+4	+8	0.7
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2022	21	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	72	62	17	3	0	2	8	14	2	6	3	274	375	419	794	145	318	19	11	338	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	—	57	51	7	2	1	1	5	10	0	0	0	137	214	275	489	137	149	18	9	236	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	AA MLE	San Antonio Missions	—	88	83	23	8	0	3	5	15	0	2	0	277	318	482	800	205	308	17	6	341	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A+ MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	—	187	174	46	6	0	15	9	51	3	8	2	264	312	557	869	293	273	27	5	354	126	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	276	244	65	11	5	3	26	57	5	12	3	266	349	389	738	123	331	21	9	320	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	32	32	4	0	0	2	0	15	0	0	0	125	125	312	438	188	133	47	0	184	11	-3	+0	-1	+2	+1	-0.2
2024	23	AAA MLE	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	—	321	285	55	13	1	8	27	81	7	3	4	193	279	330	609	137	237	25	8	275	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	160	144	29	7	0	3	12	41	1	4	0	201	268	312	580	111	248	26	8	261	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	—	184	161	37	10	1	4	21	36	0	2	0	230	319	379	698	149	262	20	11	315	99	-0	+0	+6	+1	+4	1.2
2025	24	AAA MLE	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	—	155	141	30	8	0	6	10	22	3	5	0	213	279	397	676	184	208	14	6	297	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	—	154	142	31	10	1	4	8	37	1	1	1	218	265	387	652	169	255	24	5	287	80	-4	-0	-1	+1	+3	-0.0
2026	25	AAA MLE	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	—	193	172	33	8	1	5	17	61	1	6	1	192	268	337	606	145	250	32	9	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	129	112	24	5	1	3	14	24	2	6	3	214	312	357	670	143	244	19	11	293	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	A RAW	2 teams	—	129	105	29	7	1	4	21	17	2	6	3	276	406	476	882	200	294	13	16	391	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A MLE	4 teams	—	641	582	154	28	6	24	47	144	8	26	5	265	328	457	785	192	312	22	7	335	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A RAW	4 teams	—	641	565	168	36	5	28	64	111	8	26	5	297	377	527	904	230	326	17	10	394	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	513	461	88	20	1	13	39	137	8	7	4	191	266	323	589	132	237	27	8	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	513	442	98	23	1	16	58	117	8	7	4	222	323	387	710	165	261	23	11	318	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	339	302	68	18	1	11	31	58	3	7	0	225	304	401	704	175	243	17	9	307	94	-3	+1	+6	+1	+7	1.4
2025	24	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	339	298	72	19	1	12	35	54	3	7	0	242	327	433	760	191	256	16	10	336	94	-3	+1	+6	+1	+7	1.4
2026	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	347	314	64	18	2	9	25	98	2	7	2	204	267	360	627	156	261	28	7	275	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	347	307	69	19	2	11	32	88	2	7	2	225	302	407	709	182	274	25	9	311	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	129	112	24	5	1	3	14	24	2	6	3	214	312	357	670	143	243	19	11	293	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A MLE	4 teams	—	641	581	154	28	6	24	47	144	8	26	5	265	328	458	786	193	308	22	7	335	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	513	461	88	20	1	13	39	137	8	7	4	191	266	323	589	132	234	27	8	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	339	302	68	18	1	11	31	58	3	7	0	225	304	401	704	175	237	17	9	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	347	317	64	18	2	9	25	98	2	7	2	202	267	356	623	155	252	28	7	275	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	23	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	513	461	88	20	1	13	39	137	8	7	4	191	266	323	589	132	234	27	8	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	339	302	68	18	1	11	31	58	3	7	0	225	304	401	704	175	237	17	9	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	347	317	64	18	2	9	25	98	2	7	2	202	267	356	623	155	252	28	7	275	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	26	MLB MLE	MIA	45%	380	342	73	17	2	12	31	90	4	6	2	214	286	380	666	166	253	24	8	296	86	-6	+0	+1	+1	+8	0.7
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	26	MLB CTX	MIA	45%	158	143	30	7	1	5	13	37	1	3	1	206	279	361	640	155	243	23	8	286	86	-3	+0	+1	+1	+3	0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	MIA	56%	395	356	76	18	2	12	32	94	4	6	2	213	285	377	662	164	252	24	8	294	85	-7	+0	+1	+1	+9	0.5
2029	28	MLB MLE	MIA	62%	403	363	76	18	2	12	33	97	4	5	2	211	283	372	655	161	251	24	8	292	84	-8	+0	+1	+1	+9	0.3
2030	29	MLB MLE	MIA	63%	398	360	76	18	2	12	32	97	3	3	1	209	280	366	646	157	249	24	8	288	81	-9	+0	-0	+1	+9	0.1
2031	30	MLB MLE	MIA	63%	394	356	73	18	1	11	32	97	3	2	1	205	276	358	634	152	247	25	8	283	78	-10	+0	-1	+1	+9	-0.1
2028	27	MLB CTX	MIA	56%	221	199	41	9	1	7	18	53	2	3	1	205	278	359	636	154	242	24	8	284	85	-4	+0	+1	+1	+5	0.3
2029	28	MLB CTX	MIA	62%	248	224	45	10	1	7	20	60	2	3	1	203	275	354	630	151	241	24	8	282	84	-5	+0	+0	+1	+5	0.2
2030	29	MLB CTX	MIA	63%	250	226	45	10	1	7	20	61	2	2	1	201	273	348	621	147	240	24	8	278	81	-6	+0	-0	+1	+5	0.1
2031	30	MLB CTX	MIA	63%	250	226	45	10	1	7	20	62	2	1	1	198	269	341	610	143	237	25	8	273	78	-7	-0	-1	+1	+5	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1339	1210	246	57	6	38	107	324	9	12	5	203	273	355	628	151	244	24	8	280	85	-31	+0	+5	+8	+29	1.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	587	119	28	3	18	52	157	4	6	2	203	272	353	624	150	243	24	8	280	85	-15	+0	+2	+4	+14	0.5
Career	—	MLE		—	3909	3522	767	177	20	118	313	929	40	75	22	218	289	380	669	162	260	24	8	295	85	-50	+1	+6	+11	+50	1.9
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	586	127	29	3	20	52	154	7	12	4	217	288	379	667	162	257	24	8	295	85	-14	+0	+2	+3	+14	0.5

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Dave Shean'06-'19 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,438 PA	3.7	2,438	6	66	228*	284*	352*	+9	+18	3.0	4.3
/162	664	2	18	+2.4	+4.8	0.8	pk7: 6
#2Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	2.6	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
/162	664	18	6	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#3Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	2.2	1,464	42	15	213	280	371	+5	+9	1.6	1.6
/162	664	19	7	+2.4	+4.0	0.7	pk7: 2
#4Chuck Cottier'59-'69 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,770 PA	2.7	1,770	19	28	219*	280*	330*	+7	+14	0.5	0.9
/162	664	7	11	+2.7	+5.3	0.2	pk7: 1
#5Bobby Lowe'01-'07 * career totals — 6 seasons, 2,085 PA	3.1	2,085	4	65	229*	274*	350*	+6	+6	0.1	0.1
/162	664	1	21	+2.0	+1.8	0.0	pk7: 0
#6Abraham Torolast yr '25 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,561 PA	2.4	1,561	39	16	220	282	351	-1	-8	-0.5	-0.5
/162	664	17	7	-0.2	-3.2	-0.2	pk7: -0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Graham Pauley (OGILVIE)	26	40	40	45	50	213/284/377	164	253	11	6	24%	8%	86	+0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕César Salazar 2023 · AAA	27	41→40	49→45	47→45	42	213/274/355	142	252	18	9	24%	5%	78	-0.3	209/299/322	113	248	11	7	20%	8%	80	-0.2	206/307/310	103	242	10	6	18%	9%	79	-0.1
✕Quincy Hamilton 2024 · AAA	26	44→45	47→50	49→50	49	223/301/358	136	278	15	14	25%	9%	88	+0.4	197/272/334	137	257	14	11	28%	9%	72	-0.7	173/253/311	139	222	14	11	28%	9%	57	-1.1
✕Paul McIntosh 2024 · AAA	26	42→43	49→45	45	47	215/296/360	145	278	17	8	28%	9%	87	+0.4	216/284/339	123	270	14	6	25%	7%	77	-0.3	209/277/327	118	257	13	4	23%	7%	69	-0.5
✕Devin Mann 2023 · AAA	26	43→45	49→50	43→45	48	218/301/370	152	273	16	5	26%	9%	91	+0.6	216/296/354	138	291	14	5	29%	9%	85	+0.2	206/289/333	127	280	13	4	29%	9%	75	-0.3
✕Dom Nuñez 2021 · MLB	26	39→46	50	46→45	46	205/283/359	154	272	19	8	31%	9%	82	-0.0	188/272/324	136	266	14	5	32%	10%	70	-0.9	162/254/278	115	229	11	3	32%	10%	51	-1.0
✕Nick Fortes 2023 · MLB	26	46→45	48→45	46→45	48	232/300/372	139	261	17	9	19%	7%	91	+0.6	224/280/339	115	254	12	6	17%	5%	75	-0.5	234/282/341	108	262	10	1	15%	4%	77	-0.2
✕Stephen Scott 2024 · AAA	27	39→44	49→50	49→50	51	206/287/354	149	248	17	8	25%	10%	82	-0.0	215/278/353	138	280	15	12	27%	7%	78	-0.3	231/283/382	151	299	15	14	27%	5%	84	+0.1
✕Shed Long Jr. 2022 · MLB	26	44→50	49→50	49→50	45	225/286/377	152	293	17	9	29%	8%	86	+0.3	222/291/346	124	314	12	10	31%	8%	81	-0.1	183/263/242	60	304	0	9	36%	9%	43	-0.5
✕Ben Rortvedt 2024 · MLB	26	40	47→45	48→40	45	204/280/337	132	279	16	5	32%	8%	76	-0.4	208/285/307	99	283	10	5	28%	9%	70	-0.8	197/273/278	81	269	8	3	28%	8%	59	-0.8
✕Drew Robinson 2018 · MLB	26	42→43	52→55	49→50	47	214/291/386	173	292	19	12	32%	10%	91	+0.6	219/295/370	151	353	16	13	39%	9%	88	+0.4	189/271/324	135	347	14	13	45%	10%	67	-0.4
✕Brendon Davis 2023 · AAA	26	41→45	50	47→50	45	211/283/371	159	272	18	10	29%	8%	84	+0.1	192/271/318	126	262	13	14	30%	8%	68	-1.0	164/251/269	105	228	10	17	31%	8%	47	-1.4
✕Reese McGuire 2021 · MLB	26	44→54	46→45	49→45	45	222/274/347	125	263	14	7	22%	6%	75	-0.5	239/288/342	103	299	8	5	22%	6%	78	-0.3	250/297/338	89	319	4	3	22%	5%	81	-0.0
✕Isan Díaz 2023 · MLB	27	42→43	52→55	46→45	47	218/293/384	166	281	21	8	30%	9%	91	+0.7	210/280/373	163	274	22	9	31%	8%	84	+0.1	168/241/306	138	201	23	6	30%	8%	52	-0.7
✕Donny Sands 2022 · AAA	26	44	48→45	44→40	45	225/275/362	138	258	16	5	21%	6%	78	-0.3	228/290/335	107	289	11	4	23%	8%	78	-0.3	224/293/314	91	292	8	2	24%	9%	72	-0.4
✕Hunter Feduccia 2023 · AAA	26	42→50	50	47→40	46	216/280/365	150	273	18	3	28%	8%	82	-0.0	234/312/363	129	309	12	3	26%	10%	93	+0.8	239/325/358	119	315	10	2	25%	11%	94	+0.6
✕Cam Devanney 2024 · AAA	27	43→42	48→50	43→45	45	219/284/368	149	274	15	7	26%	7%	84	+0.1	216/277/360	144	293	16	8	30%	6%	79	-0.2	205/266/344	140	282	16	7	32%	6%	69	-0.8
✕Travis Blankenhorn 2024 · MLB	27	42→45	50	45→50	44	216/288/369	153	282	18	6	30%	8%	86	+0.3	191/259/345	154	252	19	4	31%	7%	70	-0.9	164/231/315	151	210	19	1	32%	6%	49	-1.5
✕Scott Moore 2010 · MLB	26	43→50	50→55	48→50	42	222/285/381	159	276	18	7	26%	6%	87	+0.4	232/292/371	139	283	16	7	23%	7%	87	+0.4	236/301/378	142	289	16	5	23%	7%	91	+0.5
✕Conner Capel 2023 · MLB	26	46→48	47→45	50→55	50	231/299/366	135	277	14	17	22%	8%	88	+0.5	217/288/335	118	277	12	21	25%	9%	77	-0.3	202/274/309	107	261	11	23	26%	8%	64	-0.9
✕Alan Espinoza 2017 · AAA	26	44	50	50→45	43	227/278/384	156	263	18	7	22%	5%	84	+0.2	245/287/383	138	286	16	6	20%	4%	88	+0.4	259/295/392	133	298	16	2	19%	4%	91	+0.4

Graham Pauley

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps