Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips:
RAW = as recorded ·
CTX = with park/league context ·
A+C = actual + context combined ·
MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park. Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors. WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023
22
ROKMLE
FCL Red Sox
1
0
1
4
1
0
0
0%
1.0
25.0%
0.0%
25.0%
0.0%
0.00
0.99
—
2023
22
ROKRAW
FCL Red Sox
1
0
1
4
1
0
0
0%
1.0
25.0%
0.0%
25.0%
0.0%
0.00
1.10
—
2024
23
MIXMLE
3 levels
22
22
97
400
110
34
7
100%
4.4
21.8%
10.4%
11.4%
1.9%
3.88
3.65
—
2024
23
MIXMLE
3 levels
22
22
97
400
110
34
7
100%
4.4
21.8%
10.4%
11.4%
1.9%
3.88
3.65
—
2024
23
MIXRAW
3 levels
22
22
97
400
110
34
7
100%
4.4
27.5%
8.5%
19.0%
1.8%
3.88
2.82
—
2025
24
AAMLE
Portland Sea Dogs
17
16
63
281
76
29
8
94%
3.7
21.9%
11.4%
10.6%
3.1%
5.68
4.36
—
2025
24
AAMLE
Portland Sea Dogs
17
16
63
281
76
29
8
94%
3.7
21.9%
11.4%
10.6%
3.1%
5.68
4.36
—
2025
24
AARAW
Portland Sea Dogs
17
16
63
281
76
29
8
94%
3.7
27.0%
10.3%
16.7%
2.8%
5.68
3.72
—
2026
25
MIXMLE
2 levels
23
23
100
419
104
36
12
100%
4.4
20.5%
8.5%
12.0%
3.3%
3.50
4.27
—
2026
25
MIXMLE
2 levels
23
23
100
419
104
36
12
100%
4.4
20.5%
8.5%
12.0%
3.3%
3.50
4.27
—
2026
25
MIXRAW
2 levels
23
23
100
419
104
36
12
100%
4.4
24.8%
8.6%
16.2%
2.9%
3.50
3.66
—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027
26
MLB
BOS
20
20
120
507
101
49
15
100%
6.0
19.9%
9.6%
10.3%
3.1%
4.69
4.69
+0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028
27
MLBMLE
BOS
20
20
118
500
100
47
15
100%
5.9
20.1%
9.5%
10.6%
3.1%
4.67
4.68
+0.3
2029
28
MLBMLE
BOS
19
19
115
485
98
46
15
100%
6.0
20.1%
9.5%
10.6%
3.2%
4.70
4.73
+0.2
2030
29
MLBMLE
BOS
18
18
110
463
92
45
15
100%
6.1
20.0%
9.6%
10.3%
3.3%
4.78
4.84
+0.1
2031
30
MLBMLE
BOS
17
17
103
435
86
43
15
100%
6.1
19.7%
9.9%
9.8%
3.5%
4.91
5.00
-0.1
2028
27
MLBCTX
BOS
8
8
45
190
38
18
6
100%
5.6
20.1%
9.5%
10.6%
3.0%
4.63
4.64
+0.1
2029
28
MLBCTX
BOS
11
11
68
287
58
27
9
100%
6.2
20.1%
9.5%
10.6%
3.1%
4.66
4.69
+0.1
2030
29
MLBCTX
BOS
13
13
78
329
66
32
11
100%
6.0
20.0%
9.6%
10.3%
3.2%
4.73
4.79
+0.1
2031
30
MLBCTX
BOS
14
14
81
342
67
34
12
100%
5.8
19.7%
9.9%
9.8%
3.4%
4.86
4.95
-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career
—
RAW
45
45
271
1145
228
110
37
100%
6.0
19.9%
9.6%
10.3%
3.2%
4.74
4.41
+1.5
/ 200 IP
—
RAW
33
33
200
844
168
81
27
100%
6.0
19.9%
9.6%
10.3%
3.2%
4.74
4.41
+1.1
Career
—
MLE
63
61
262
1104
236
109
30
97%
4.2
21.3%
9.9%
11.4%
2.7%
4.16
4.06
+0.5
/ 200 IP
—
MLE
48
47
200
843
180
83
23
97%
4.2
21.3%
9.9%
11.4%
2.7%
4.16
4.06
+0.2
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.