Nestor Lorant

P Dayton Dragons

Age 25 RHP 6'2" / 205 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 0.9 · 2028

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2036

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX2 levels	25	8	96	1.68	1.99	29.7%	6.5%	—	K 22.3% · BB 7.2% · FIP 2.73
2025	23	A+CIN	24	23	98	5.79	3.90	19.7%	8.4%	—	K 15.2% · BB 9.7% · FIP 4.50
2026	24	MIX2 levels	14	11	63	2.71	3.23	33.6%	10.0%	—	K 26.3% · BB 11.4% · FIP 4.42
2027PROJ	25	MLBCIN	12	12	70	4.90	4.90	19.8%	11.3%	0.0
2028PROJ43% MLB	26	MLBCIN	6	6	38	4.95	4.94	20.2%	10.9%	0.0
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBCIN	9	9	55	4.93	4.94	20.4%	10.7%	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Arb-1$3M2034Ext$5M+1

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff35Control45Command40

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 2, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 88%

CompsCarlos Sano (age 25) · Ricky Castro (age 24) · Tanner Hall (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.90

FIP4.90

K%19.8%

BB%11.3%

K-BB%8.5%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$5M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL4545

CMD4040

K†4550

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Arb-1	$3M	—	—	—
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.8M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	17	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	6	4	20	88	20	6	1	67%	3.4	15.5%	8.5%	6.9%	1.6%	4.43	3.75	—
2019	17	ROK RAW	DSL Reds	6	4	20	88	20	6	1	67%	3.4	22.7%	6.8%	15.9%	1.1%	4.43	2.66	—
2021	19	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	9	9	33	132	45	12	1	100%	3.7	23.2%	11.4%	11.8%	1.0%	2.70	3.11	—
2021	19	ROK RAW	DSL Reds	9	9	33	132	45	12	1	100%	3.7	34.1%	9.1%	25.0%	0.8%	2.70	1.87	—
2022	20	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	11	2	33	142	47	15	2	18%	3.0	22.5%	13.2%	9.3%	2.0%	4.05	3.99	—
2022	20	ROK RAW	ACL Reds	11	2	33	142	47	15	2	18%	3.0	33.1%	10.6%	22.5%	1.4%	4.05	2.41	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	6	38	165	43	25	4	43%	2.7	18.7%	18.2%	0.4%	3.1%	5.02	5.53	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	6	38	165	43	25	4	43%	2.7	26.1%	15.2%	10.9%	2.4%	5.02	4.19	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	8	96	367	109	24	3	32%	3.9	22.3%	7.2%	15.1%	1.1%	1.68	2.73	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	8	96	367	109	24	3	32%	3.9	22.3%	7.2%	15.1%	1.1%	1.68	2.73	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	8	96	367	109	24	3	32%	3.9	29.7%	6.5%	23.2%	0.8%	1.68	1.99	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	24	23	98	462	91	39	11	96%	4.1	15.2%	9.7%	5.5%	2.6%	5.79	4.50	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	24	23	98	462	91	39	11	96%	4.1	15.2%	9.7%	5.5%	2.6%	5.79	4.50	—
2025	23	A+ RAW	Dayton Dragons	24	23	98	462	91	39	11	96%	4.1	19.7%	8.4%	11.3%	2.4%	5.79	3.90	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	11	63	259	87	26	8	79%	4.5	26.3%	11.4%	14.9%	3.8%	2.71	4.42	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	11	63	259	87	26	8	79%	4.5	26.3%	11.4%	14.9%	3.8%	2.71	4.42	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	11	63	259	87	26	8	79%	4.5	33.6%	10.0%	23.6%	3.1%	2.71	3.23	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	CIN	12	12	70	296	59	33	9	100%	5.8	19.8%	11.3%	8.5%	3.0%	4.90	4.90	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	CIN	15	15	88	372	75	41	11	100%	5.9	20.2%	10.9%	9.4%	3.0%	4.82	4.81	+0.1
2029	27	MLB MLE	CIN	14	14	87	367	75	39	11	100%	6.2	20.4%	10.7%	9.6%	3.1%	4.80	4.81	+0.1
2030	28	MLB MLE	CIN	14	14	84	356	72	38	11	100%	6.0	20.3%	10.7%	9.6%	3.2%	4.83	4.86	+0.0
2031	29	MLB MLE	CIN	13	13	80	340	68	37	11	100%	6.2	20.1%	10.9%	9.2%	3.3%	4.91	4.98	-0.1
2032	30	MLB MLE	CIN	13	13	76	320	70	33	11	100%	5.8	21.8%	10.4%	11.4%	3.5%	4.90	4.89	+0.0
2028	26	MLB CTX	CIN	6	6	38	160	32	17	5	100%	6.3	20.2%	10.9%	9.4%	3.3%	4.95	4.94	+0.0
2029	27	MLB CTX	CIN	9	9	55	232	47	25	8	100%	6.1	20.4%	10.7%	9.6%	3.3%	4.93	4.94	+0.1
2030	28	MLB CTX	CIN	10	10	63	266	54	29	9	100%	6.3	20.3%	10.7%	9.6%	3.4%	4.97	5.00	+0.0
2031	29	MLB CTX	CIN	11	11	66	279	56	30	10	100%	6.0	20.1%	10.9%	9.2%	3.6%	5.06	5.13	-0.1
2032	30	MLB CTX	CIN	11	11	65	274	60	29	10	100%	5.9	21.8%	10.4%	11.4%	3.8%	5.05	5.04	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		48	48	286	1209	249	130	42	100%	6.0	20.6%	10.7%	9.9%	3.5%	5.00	4.64	+0.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	174	91	29	100%	6.0	20.6%	10.7%	9.9%	3.5%	5.00	4.64	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		103	63	382	1615	327	172	37	61%	3.7	20.3%	10.7%	9.6%	2.3%	3.68	3.99	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		54	33	200	846	171	90	19	61%	3.7	20.3%	10.7%	9.6%	2.3%	3.68	3.99	+0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nestor Lorant (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.90	19.8%	11.3%	3.0%	—	4.83	20.3%	9.5%	259	-0.07	—	—	—
Carlos Sano R 2018 · 4.82 FIP	25	SP-	4.82	17.6%	11.2%	3.3%	.282	9.22	19.7%	7.1%	18	+4.40	4.82	105	88
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	86
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	85
Andrew Politi R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	25	SP-	5.21	21.0%	12.2%	4.3%	.320	4.04	22.9%	13.8%	138	-1.17	3.38	292	85
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.27	22.8%	15.4%	121	+0.08	2.98	262	84
Derek True R 2024 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP-	4.90	18.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.333	4.95	17.6%	5.9%	73	+0.05	4.50	170	84
Kenten Egbert R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	19.6%	9.6%	2.9%	.257	4.34	10.8%	3.5%	133	+0.08	4.04	231	83
Paxton Schultz R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	25	SP-	4.87	19.5%	11.9%	3.5%	.319	4.02	23.3%	14.9%	227	-0.85	3.83	543	83
Carlos Torres R 2009 · 5.24 FIP	26	SP-	5.24	16.9%	11.5%	3.9%	.284	3.59	18.2%	7.3%	67	-1.65	2.89	604	82
Logan Martin R 2024 · 3.95 FIP	23	SP-	3.95	16.9%	8.9%	2.1%	.278	4.58	17.6%	5.0%	140	+0.63	3.95	242	81
Jackson Finley R 2024 · 4.16 FIP	23	SP-	4.16	18.0%	12.8%	1.7%	.361	3.97	20.9%	9.8%	67	-0.19	3.97	150	81
Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2023 · 3.71 FIP	25	SP-	3.71	20.3%	8.7%	2.2%	.309	3.40	21.6%	13.7%	145	-0.31	1.85	254	80
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	80
Nolan DeVos R 2023 · 4.21 FIP	22	SP-	4.21	21.1%	14.0%	2.0%	.302	5.66	19.0%	8.3%	111	+1.45	4.21	210	80
Logan Evans R 2024 · 4.17 FIP	23	SP-	4.17	17.8%	10.3%	2.3%	.257	4.17	17.9%	10.2%	125	+0.00	4.17	232	80
Nick Dean R 2024 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP-	3.86	17.5%	8.1%	2.2%	.275	3.47	21.7%	14.6%	111	-0.39	2.73	202	80
Matt Ruppenthal R 2021 · 4.76 FIP	25	SP-	4.76	18.5%	13.8%	2.7%	.308	4.28	22.7%	7.9%	102	-0.48	3.74	283	79
Hunter Adkins R 2016 · 4.64 FIP	25	SW	4.64	16.2%	10.3%	2.9%	.290	4.82	11.8%	0.5%	58	+0.18	4.64	160	79
Kyle Scott R 2024 · 4.12 FIP	22	SP-	4.12	17.7%	8.2%	2.7%	.269	3.94	15.9%	4.3%	42	-0.18	3.94	138	79
Alfredo Figaro R 2009 · 4.98 FIP	25	SP-	4.98	19.3%	12.0%	3.6%	.370	4.42	7.2%	-1.5%	15	-0.56	3.75	143	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.4	81	20.4%	10.8%	1.23	4.86
Allyn Stout ('31-'43, -2 WAR*)	2.3	92	21.1%*	10.6%*	1.20*	5.00*
Al Cicotte ('57-'62, -0 WAR*)	1.3	65	19.6%*	10.1%*	1.26*	4.68*
Lou Sleater ('50-'58, -2 WAR*)	1.5	60	19.6%*	11.2%*	1.30*	5.08*
Adam Conley ('21)	2.2	87	19.8%	9.4%	1.16	4.71
Jake Faria ('23)	1.0	68	20.9%	10.3%	1.32	4.87
Jay Witasick ('07)	3.7	73	19.6%	11.0%	1.19	4.64