Connor Caskenette

C Pensacola Blue Wahoos
Age 25 R/R 6'0" / 215 lbs AA HR -10%H -3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
Overview
AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2036
OGV OFP35OGV rank#1411ETA2029MLB%2%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202422AMIA76.206/.289/.2500320—.157/.224/.186
202523AA/A+MIA245.241/.372/.30201262—.205/.310/.257
202624AA/A+MIA341.254/.353/.434131777—.220/.294/.369
2027PROJMLE25MLBMIA4.203/.281/.30600730.0
2028PROJ39% MLB26MLBMIA90.205/.283/.31122750.1
2029PROJ53% MLB27MLBMIA140.205/.283/.31233750.2
Next 3 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Ext$3M2034Ext$5M+1
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AA
Speed81
Whiff%66
Z-Con%63
ISO43
K%40
Chase%40
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.4 / P90 0.7, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%
CompsZach Humphreys (age 25) · Corey Joyce (age 25) · Maverick Handley (age 25)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†73
AVG/OBP/SLG.203 / .281 / .306
PA4
HR0
K%25
BB%8
BABIP270
ISO114
MLB%2%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -6.6 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-7BATRUN: +0.4 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+0RUNFLD: +0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: +3.7 runs (Positional adjustment)+4POSREP: +4.5 runs (Replacement-level credit)+4REPTotal WAR: +0.40+0.4WAR
0.00.51.00.00.10.20.10.10.027282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$1M ctrl surplus
Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 25
Toolsscout grade
CONTACT40
scouting grade only
POWER25
scouting grade only
EYE60
scouting grade only
SPEED55
scouting grade only
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2030
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2035
First FA Year   2036
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.1$0.3M+$0.0M (cut)
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.1$0.3M+$0.0M (cut)
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M———
2033Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.0M $0.6M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202422 AJupiter Hammerheads — 7668 14300 8170 31 206289250539 44275 2211 255 20 — — — — — —
202523 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos — 5245 11200 4132 11 244327289616 44344 258 288 53 — — — — — —
202523 A+Beloit Sky Carp — 193154 37810 33373 113 240384305689 65308 1917 324 64 — — — — — —
202624 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos — 196180 39516 13512 80 217277356632 139266 267 283 40 — — — — — —
202624 A+Beloit Sky Carp — 145115 36707 26324 92 3134555571.012 243382 2218 445 126 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202422 A MLEJupiter Hammerheads — 7670 11200 6220 31 157224186409 29245 298 198 20 — — — — — —
202523 AA MLEPensacola Blue Wahoos — 5247 10200 3162 11 213288255544 43322 316 246 53 — — — — — —
202523 A+ MLEBeloit Sky Carp — 193163 33710 24483 113 202316258573 55269 2512 263 64 — — — — — —
202624 AA MLEPensacola Blue Wahoos — 196184 34415 9622 80 185231299530 114243 325 228 40 — — — — — —
202624 A+ MLEBeloit Sky Carp — 145123 33606 18414 92 268379463843 195341 2812 354 126 — — — — — —
202422 A MLEJupiter Hammerheads — 7670 11200 6220 31 157224186409 29229 298 198 20 — — — — — —
202422 A RAWJupiter Hammerheads — 7668 14300 8170 31 206289250539 44275 2211 255 20 — — — — — —
202523 A+ MLE2 teams — 245210 43910 27645 124 205310257567 52289 2611 259 62 — — — — — —
202523 A+ RAW2 teams — 245199 481010 37505 124 241372302673 60316 2015 316 62 — — — — — —
202624 AA MLE2 teams — 341307 6510110 271036 172 212288349637 137282 308 282 77 — — — — — —
202624 AA RAW2 teams — 341295 7512113 39836 172 254353434787 180310 2411 352 77 — — — — — —
202422 A MLEJupiter Hammerheads — 7670 11200 6220 31 157224186409 29245 298 198 20 — — — — — —
202523 A+ MLE2 teams — 245211 43910 27645 124 204310256566 52280 2611 259 62 — — — — — —
202624 AA MLE2 teams — 341305 6510110 271036 172 213288351639 138285 308 282 77 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202422 A MLEJupiter Hammerheads — 7670 11200 6220 31 157224186409 29245 298 198 20 — — — — — —
202523 A+ MLE2 teams — 245211 43910 27645 124 204310256566 52280 2611 259 62 — — — — — —
202624 AA MLE2 teams — 341305 6510110 271036 172 213288351639 138285 308 282 77 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202725 MLB MLEMIA 2% 380340 711327 321055 102 210287320607 110279 288 276 73 -12 +1 +0 +7 +8 0.4
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202725 MLB CTXMIA 2% 44 1000 010 00 203281306587 103270 250 268 73 -0 +0 +0 +0 +0 0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202826 MLB MLEMIA 39% 234209 43814 20643 61 212289325614 113279 279 279 75 -7 +1 +0 +4 +5 0.3
202927 MLB MLEMIA 53% 266238 511015 23733 61 212290326616 114279 279 280 75 -8 +1 +0 +5 +6 0.4
203028 MLB MLEMIA 60% 286256 541016 24784 61 212289326615 114279 278 279 75 -9 +1 -1 +5 +6 0.3
203129 MLB MLEMIA 62% 290260 551016 24794 51 211288323611 112278 278 278 74 -9 +1 -1 +5 +6 0.2
203230 MLB MLEMIA 68% 290261 541015 24793 31 210286320606 110277 278 275 72 -10 +0 -2 +5 +6 0.0
202826 MLB CTXMIA 39% 9081 17302 8251 20 205283311593 106270 289 271 75 -3 +0 +0 +2 +2 0.1
202927 MLB CTXMIA 53% 140125 27513 12382 31 205283312595 107270 279 271 75 -4 +0 +0 +3 +3 0.2
203028 MLB CTXMIA 60% 171153 32613 14472 31 205283311594 106270 278 271 75 -5 +0 -0 +3 +4 0.1
203129 MLB CTXMIA 62% 179160 33613 15492 31 204282309591 105269 278 270 74 -6 +0 -1 +3 +4 0.1
203230 MLB CTXMIA 68% 198177 36614 17542 21 203280306586 103268 279 267 72 -7 +0 -1 +4 +4 -0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 778696 14526415 662139 134 208285322607 114275 278 270 71 -24 +1 -3 +14 +17 0.5
/ 162G— A+C — 650581 12222313 551788 113 210287325613 115277 278 270 71 -20 +1 -2 +12 +14 0.4
Career— MLE — 22341995 41576840 19261931 6313 208288314602 106279 289 274 71 -48 +4 -4 +28 +34 1.4
/ 162G— MLE — 650580 12122212 561809 184 209288316604 107279 289 274 71 -20 +2 -2 +12 +14 0.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 196 PAwOBA .277 → .228 (−49)K% 26.0% → 31.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA26.02%÷1.000×1.220——31.74%
BB% (unintentional) /PA6.63%÷1.000×0.680—×1.0124.56%
HBP% /PA1.02%—×0.840—×1.0120.87%
Singles /BIP20.93%÷1.000×0.920×0.995×1.01219.38%
Doubles /BIP3.88%÷1.000×0.910×0.995×1.0123.55%
Triples /BIP0.78%÷1.000×0.880×0.995×1.0120.69%
Home runs /BIP4.65%÷1.000×0.800—×1.0123.77%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.995.

Result: wOBA .277 → .228; ISO .139 → .111; BABIP .266 → .243. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Beloit Sky Carp · 145 PAwOBA .434 → .354 (−80)K% 22.1% → 28.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA22.07%÷1.000×1.270——28.03%
BB% (unintentional) /PA17.93%÷1.000×0.710—×0.98812.58%
HBP% /PA2.76%—×0.790—×0.9882.15%
Singles /BIP26.51%÷1.000×0.920×1.031×0.98824.85%
Doubles /BIP8.43%÷1.000×0.810×1.031×0.9886.96%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.850×1.031×0.9880.00%
Home runs /BIP8.43%÷1.000×0.800—×0.9886.67%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.031.

Result: wOBA .434 → .354; ISO .243 → .195; BABIP .382 → .341. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Beloit Sky Carp · 193 PAwOBA .322 → .263 (−58)K% 19.2% → 25.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA19.17%÷0.972×1.270——25.04%
BB% (unintentional) /PA17.10%÷0.978×0.710—×0.99812.39%
HBP% /PA1.55%—×0.790—×0.9981.23%
Singles /BIP23.93%÷1.028×0.920×0.991×0.99821.18%
Doubles /BIP6.84%÷0.961×0.810×0.991×0.9985.70%
Triples /BIP0.85%÷1.000×0.850×0.991×0.9980.72%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.006×0.800—×0.9980.00%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 106, 2B 92, 3B 100, K 94, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.991.

Result: wOBA .322 → .263; ISO .065 → .055; BABIP .308 → .269. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 52 PAwOBA .281 → .246 (−35)K% 25.0% → 30.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA25.00%÷0.995×1.220——30.66%
BB% (unintentional) /PA7.69%÷1.045×0.680—×1.0275.14%
HBP% /PA3.85%—×0.840—×1.0273.32%
Singles /BIP28.12%÷1.017×0.920—×1.02726.12%
Doubles /BIP6.25%÷0.955×0.910—×1.0276.11%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.941×0.880—×1.0270.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.103×0.800—×1.0270.00%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 121, 1B 103, 2B 91, 3B 88, K 99, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .281 → .246; ISO .044 → .043; BABIP .344 → .322. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AJupiter Hammerheads · 76 PAwOBA .249 → .198 (−51)K% 22.4% → 29.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA22.37%÷1.029×1.360——29.57%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.53%÷0.993×0.690——7.31%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.780——0.00%
Singles /BIP21.57%÷1.065×0.920×1.050—19.56%
Doubles /BIP5.88%÷1.032×0.830×1.050—4.97%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.960×0.910×1.050—0.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷0.888×0.800——0.00%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 78, 1B 113, 2B 106, 3B 92, K 106, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .249 → .198; ISO .044 → .035; BABIP .275 → .245. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).