Matt Scheffler — OGILVIE

Matt SchefflerC Tacoma Rainiers

Age 28 R/R 6'2" / 190 lbs AAA K +7%HR -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 0 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†81

AVG/OBP/SLG—

PA1

HR0

K%29

BB%7

BABIP284

ISO77

MLB%10%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$0M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.7M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2021	23	A+	Everett AquaSox	—	79	70	18	4	0	4	5	23	3	1	1	257	333	486	819	229	318	29	6	357	128	+3	-0	—	—	+2	0.4
2021	23	A	Modesto Nuts	—	169	141	34	7	2	3	24	41	3	1	1	241	363	383	746	142	316	24	14	339	116	+3	-0	—	—	+4	0.7
2022	24	AA	Arkansas Travelers	—	298	244	61	7	3	1	45	59	6	10	2	250	380	316	695	66	321	20	15	325	106	+2	+1	—	—	+6	1.0
2023	25	AA	Arkansas Travelers	—	259	216	45	6	1	1	33	61	8	8	2	208	335	259	594	51	282	24	13	285	79	-6	+1	—	—	+6	-0.0
2024	26	AAA	Tacoma Rainiers	—	15	12	3	1	0	0	2	3	1	1	0	250	400	333	733	83	333	20	13	348	122	+0	+0	—	—	+0	0.1
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2021	23	A+ MLE	Everett AquaSox	—	79	72	14	3	0	3	3	32	3	1	1	194	256	361	618	167	261	41	4	252	57	-4	-0	—	—	+2	-0.3
2021	23	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	—	169	149	29	5	2	3	16	55	3	1	1	195	286	315	601	121	280	33	9	266	66	-7	-0	—	—	+4	-0.3
2022	24	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	—	298	257	57	6	2	1	32	71	6	10	2	222	322	272	594	51	297	24	11	277	74	-9	+1	—	—	+6	-0.2
2023	25	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	—	259	227	40	5	1	1	22	71	8	8	2	176	272	220	493	44	247	27	8	230	42	-18	+1	—	—	+6	-1.2
2024	26	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	—	15	13	3	1	0	0	1	4	1	1	0	231	333	308	641	77	287	27	7	278	74	-0	+0	—	—	+0	0.0
2021	23	A MLE	2 teams	—	248	220	42	8	2	5	20	86	6	2	2	191	276	314	590	123	282	35	8	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	A RAW	2 teams	—	248	211	52	11	2	7	29	64	6	2	2	246	354	417	771	171	317	26	12	345	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	—	298	257	57	6	2	1	32	71	6	10	2	222	322	272	594	51	298	24	11	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AA RAW	Arkansas Travelers	—	298	244	61	7	3	1	45	59	6	10	2	250	380	316	695	66	321	20	15	325	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	—	259	227	40	5	1	1	22	71	8	8	2	176	272	220	493	44	248	27	8	230	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AA RAW	Arkansas Travelers	—	259	216	45	6	1	1	33	61	8	8	2	208	335	259	594	51	282	24	13	285	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	—	15	13	3	1	0	0	1	4	1	1	0	231	333	308	641	77	333	27	7	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AAA RAW	Tacoma Rainiers	—	15	12	3	1	0	0	2	3	1	1	0	250	400	333	733	83	333	20	13	348	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	A MLE	2 teams	—	248	220	42	8	2	5	20	86	6	2	2	191	276	314	590	123	274	35	8	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	—	298	258	57	6	2	1	32	71	6	10	2	221	322	271	593	50	297	24	11	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	—	259	227	40	5	1	1	22	71	8	8	2	176	272	220	493	44	247	27	8	230	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	—	15	13	3	1	0	0	1	4	1	1	0	231	333	308	641	77	287	27	7	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	25	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	—	259	227	40	5	1	1	22	71	8	8	2	176	272	220	493	44	247	27	8	230	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	—	15	13	3	1	0	0	1	4	1	1	0	231	333	308	641	77	287	27	7	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 season
2026	28	MLB MLE	SEA	10%	14	13	3	1	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	231	286	308	593	77	287	29	7	287	81	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.4
▸ 2026 — real world (MLB)
2026	28	MLB CTX	SEA	10%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0						284	0	0	273	81	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	SEA	33%	243	217	48	9	1	5	20	63	4	5	1	221	299	341	640	120	287	26	8	289	82	-5	+1	-1	+4	+5	0.4
2028	30	MLB MLE	SEA	46%	290	260	57	11	1	6	24	75	4	5	1	219	295	338	634	119	286	26	8	289	82	-6	+1	-2	+5	+6	0.4
2029	31	MLB MLE	SEA	54%	278	249	54	10	1	5	23	72	4	4	1	217	293	325	619	108	284	26	8	287	80	-7	+0	-3	+5	+6	0.2
2030	32	MLB MLE	SEA	58%	258	231	50	9	1	5	21	67	4	3	1	216	293	329	622	113	281	26	8	282	77	-7	+0	-4	+5	+6	-0.0
2027	29	MLB CTX	SEA	33%	79	72	16	3	0	2	6	20	1	2	0	222	291	347	638	125	284	25	8	276	82	-2	+0	-0	+1	+2	0.1
2028	30	MLB CTX	SEA	46%	133	119	27	5	1	3	11	34	2	2	1	227	303	361	664	134	283	26	8	276	82	-3	+0	-1	+2	+3	0.1
2029	31	MLB CTX	SEA	54%	149	134	29	5	1	3	12	39	2	2	1	216	291	336	626	119	281	26	8	274	80	-4	+0	-2	+3	+3	0.1
2030	32	MLB CTX	SEA	58%	150	135	29	5	1	3	12	39	2	2	0	215	289	333	622	119	278	26	8	269	77	-4	+0	-2	+3	+3	0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	511	460	101	18	3	11	41	132	7	8	2	220	293	343	637	124	281	26	8	273	72	-12	+1	-5	+9	+11	0.4
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	585	129	23	4	14	52	168	9	10	3	221	294	345	639	125	283	26	8	273	72	-16	+1	-6	+12	+14	0.5
Career	—	MLE		—	1903	1687	354	60	9	28	164	513	37	38	10	210	294	306	600	96	282	27	9	274	72	-26	+2	-10	+19	+23	0.9
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	576	121	20	3	10	56	175	13	13	3	210	295	307	602	97	281	27	9	274	72	-15	+1	-6	+12	+14	0.6

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#2Jack Hannahanlast yr '14 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,867 PA	2.8	1,867	29	6	232	315	348	+6	+29	6.2	6.2
/162	664	10	2	+2.0	+10.4	2.2	pk7: 6
#3Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	4.2	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
/162	664	10	9	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#5Guillermo Heredialast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,530 PA	2.3	1,530	25	6	231	311	345	+3	+17	3.5	3.5
/162	664	11	3	+1.2	+7.6	1.5	pk7: 3
#6Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	0.8	528	10	8	221	293	339	+9	+8	1.1	1.1
/162	664	13	10	+11.9	+10.1	1.4	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Matt Scheffler (OGILVIE)	28	—	—	—	—	220/294/336	117	287	3	4	26%	8%	81	-0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Pedro Severino 2021 · MLB	28	46→49	48→50	48→45	49	234/302/373	139	276	17	6	22%	8%	91	+0.7	239/300/372	133	305	15	6	25%	8%	90	+0.6	230/288/352	123	295	14	6	26%	7%	78	-0.1
✕Andrew Knizner 2022 · MLB	27	43	43→50	48→40	51	213/294/325	112	254	11	6	21%	8%	78	-0.3	220/289/340	120	271	13	4	23%	7%	79	-0.2	227/296/347	120	278	14	3	22%	6%	82	+0.0
✕Chris Herrmann 2017 · MLB	29	46→49	46→50	56→50	46	229/294/368	139	294	13	11	26%	8%	87	+0.4	219/303/375	156	285	18	8	28%	10%	92	+0.7	206/296/357	150	270	19	4	29%	11%	84	+0.1
✕Chris Owings 2020 · MLB	28	43→53	46→50	48→55	41	216/269/346	130	288	14	16	30%	6%	73	-0.6	215/279/355	140	299	15	14	31%	8%	78	-0.3	183/262/297	114	263	14	11	34%	9%	56	-1.0
✕Christian Lopes 2021 · AAA	28	45→51	44→45	47→50	49	222/297/340	118	275	11	13	23%	8%	82	+0.0	213/291/335	122	306	12	11	32%	8%	79	-0.2	194/280/309	115	286	11	9	33%	9%	67	-0.4
✕Brad Davis 2011 · MLB	28	43	47→50	44→45	45	217/275/356	139	271	14	5	25%	7%	78	-0.3	211/259/316	105	280	9	6	27%	6%	61	-1.5	196/239/281	85	265	6	4	27%	5%	44	-1.1
✕Austin Wynns 2019 · MLB	28	48→52	44→45	47→40	45	235/287/343	108	286	12	3	22%	6%	78	-0.3	223/278/320	97	273	11	4	22%	6%	70	-0.9	242/307/339	96	312	9	2	24%	7%	83	+0.0
✕Tim Olson 2006 · MLB	27	46	48→50	45→50	45	232/291/379	147	283	15	12	24%	7%	88	+0.5	226/271/354	128	293	14	12	27%	5%	75	-0.5	206/245/315	108	272	12	12	28%	5%	53	-0.8
✕Tommy Field 2015 · MLB	28	48→51	44→45	50→45	46	232/293/352	120	289	10	8	23%	7%	83	+0.1	205/270/324	119	256	12	7	24%	7%	68	-1.0	185/250/294	109	230	11	5	24%	6%	52	-1.6
✕Mike Rivera 2005 · MLB	28	45	45→55	49→45	47	227/285/353	126	275	13	8	22%	7%	80	-0.2	231/274/413	182	254	25	7	21%	4%	91	+0.6	213/254/387	173	231	25	6	21%	4%	74	-0.3
✕Grayson Greiner 2021 · MLB	28	40	47→45	46→30	43	206/271/335	129	277	15	4	31%	8%	71	-0.8	196/261/305	109	342	12	5	43%	7%	61	-1.5	178/245/263	85	331	9	1	46%	8%	42	-0.9
✕Josh Wilson 2008 · MLB	27	47→50	43→45	52→50	46	231/286/349	117	271	10	15	19%	6%	79	-0.2	227/281/326	99	273	7	11	19%	5%	72	-0.7	227/276/323	96	277	6	6	19%	4%	68	-0.5
✕JaCoby Jones 2020 · MLB	28	45→47	49→50	52→50	42	225/290/384	159	305	15	14	30%	7%	89	+0.5	217/278/360	143	326	15	9	36%	7%	80	-0.2	190/245/303	113	313	13	5	41%	6%	51	-0.8
✕Danny Mendick 2022 · MLB	28	46→48	43→45	43→50	47	227/288/332	105	279	11	8	22%	7%	76	-0.4	235/295/355	120	289	13	12	22%	7%	84	+0.2	228/286/354	126	275	14	15	22%	6%	77	-0.2
✕Ryan Lavarnway 2016 · MLB	28	48→46	42→55	46→30	50	234/306/339	105	288	9	4	21%	8%	84	+0.2	226/292/330	104	287	10	3	23%	8%	78	-0.3	221/289/366	145	274	17	0	25%	7%	82	-0.0
✕Stevie Berman 2023 · AAA	28	39	45	48→40	49	198/286/319	122	254	12	5	26%	9%	74	-0.5	216/298/331	115	289	12	7	27%	9%	80	-0.1	197/296/255	58	267	7	0	26%	12%	61	-0.3
✕Zack Collins 2023 · MLB	28	37→42	48→50	46→40	51	191/287/338	147	263	16	6	32%	11%	78	-0.3	209/288/344	135	322	14	7	36%	10%	80	-0.2	198/279/320	122	316	13	4	38%	10%	69	-0.8
✕Craig Stansberry 2010 · MLB	28	46→47	42→50	45→50	49	222/286/331	109	269	9	10	21%	8%	75	-0.5	222/284/332	110	283	10	12	24%	7%	75	-0.5	215/280/320	104	277	10	12	25%	7%	69	-0.5
✕Garrett Stubbs 2021 · MLB	28	46	44→45	54→50	48	225/289/345	119	270	11	17	21%	7%	80	-0.2	227/309/347	120	288	12	12	24%	10%	88	+0.4	219/308/324	105	279	10	10	23%	11%	81	-0.0
✕Brandon Larson 2005 · MLB	29	42	47→50	46→45	52	212/300/344	133	267	15	9	26%	10%	84	+0.2	229/285/383	154	292	19	6	28%	6%	88	+0.4	222/268/373	152	278	20	4	28%	5%	76	-0.2

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps