Matt SchefflerC
Tacoma Rainiers
Age 28
R/R
6'2" / 190 lbs
AAA
HR +3%
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 0.4 · 2028
wRC+†73
AVG/OBP/SLG.214 / .288 / .326
PA170
HR3
K%27
BB%8
MLB%10%
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.5peak
2028
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2028
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2033
First FA Year 2034
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.9M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.2 | $0.9M | +$0.0M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | — | — | — |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.2M | — | — | — |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.4M | — | — | — |
| 2033 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $1M | $-0.3M | -$1M | ||
Career Projections (MLE)
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | A | 2 teams | 248 | 221 | 43 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 19 | 85 | 6 | 2 | 2 | .195 | .276 | .330 | .607 | .136 | .280 | 34 | 8 | .266 | 62 | -11 | -0 | +0 | +4 | +7 | 0.0 |
| 2022 | 24 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | 298 | 257 | 55 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 32 | 76 | 6 | 10 | 2 | .214 | .315 | .265 | .580 | .051 | .295 | 26 | 11 | .269 | 64 | -12 | +1 | +0 | +5 | +8 | 0.3 |
| 2023 | 25 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | 259 | 227 | 39 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 76 | 8 | 8 | 2 | .172 | .268 | .216 | .484 | .044 | .250 | 29 | 8 | .224 | 30 | -21 | +1 | +0 | +5 | +7 | -0.8 |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | 15 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | .231 | .333 | .308 | .641 | .077 | .333 | 27 | 7 | .278 | 71 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | 0.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | SEA | 170 | 152 | 33 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 47 | 3 | 4 | 1 | .217 | .292 | .329 | .621 | .112 | .287 | 28 | 8 | .280 | 73 | -5 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +5 | 0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB 20% | SEA | 243 | 218 | 48 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 19 | 66 | 4 | 5 | 1 | .220 | .295 | .339 | .634 | .119 | .287 | 27 | 8 | .283 | 74 | -7 | +1 | -1 | +4 | +7 | 0.3 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB 33% | SEA | 290 | 261 | 57 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 23 | 79 | 4 | 5 | 1 | .218 | .292 | .337 | .629 | .119 | .286 | 27 | 8 | .283 | 74 | -8 | +1 | -2 | +5 | +8 | 0.4 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB 43% | SEA | 278 | 250 | 53 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 22 | 76 | 4 | 3 | 1 | .212 | .286 | .320 | .606 | .108 | .285 | 27 | 8 | .281 | 73 | -8 | +0 | -3 | +5 | +8 | 0.2 |
| 2030 | 32 | MLB 52% | SEA | 258 | 232 | 49 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 72 | 4 | 2 | 0 | .211 | .285 | .323 | .608 | .112 | .284 | 28 | 8 | .277 | 70 | -9 | +0 | -4 | +5 | +7 | 0.0 |
| 2031 | 33 | MLB 70% | SEA | 228 | 205 | 43 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 65 | 3 | 1 | 0 | .210 | .283 | .317 | .600 | .107 | .282 | 29 | 8 | .272 | 66 | -9 | +0 | -4 | +4 | +6 | -0.2 |
| 2032 | 34 | MLB 87% | SEA | 186 | 166 | 34 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 55 | 3 | 0 | 0 | .205 | .283 | .307 | .590 | .102 | .280 | 30 | 8 | .266 | 62 | -8 | +0 | -5 | +3 | +5 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 2473 | 2202 | 457 | 79 | 12 | 39 | 204 | 701 | 46 | 41 | 10 | .208 | .288 | .307 | .596 | .100 | .283 | 28 | 8 | .270 | 65 | -98 | +4 | -19 | +44 | +70 | 0.1 | ||
| / 162G | — | 650 | 579 | 120 | 21 | 3 | 10 | 54 | 184 | 12 | 11 | 3 | .207 | .289 | .306 | .595 | .098 | .283 | 28 | 8 | .270 | 65 | -26 | +1 | -5 | +12 | +18 | 0.0 | ||
Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)
Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | A+ | Everett AquaSox | 79 | 70 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 23 | 3 | 1 | 1 | .257 | .333 | .486 | .819 | .229 | .318 | 29 | 6 | .357 | 131 | +3 | -0 | — | — | +2 | 0.5 |
| 2021 | 23 | A | Modesto Nuts | 169 | 141 | 34 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 24 | 41 | 3 | 1 | 1 | .241 | .363 | .383 | .746 | .142 | .316 | 24 | 14 | .339 | 118 | +3 | -0 | — | — | +5 | 0.8 |
| 2022 | 24 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | 298 | 244 | 61 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 45 | 59 | 6 | 10 | 2 | .250 | .380 | .316 | .695 | .066 | .321 | 20 | 15 | .325 | 107 | +2 | +1 | — | — | +8 | 1.2 |
| 2023 | 25 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | 259 | 216 | 45 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 33 | 61 | 8 | 8 | 2 | .208 | .335 | .259 | .594 | .051 | .282 | 24 | 13 | .285 | 76 | -7 | +1 | — | — | +7 | 0.1 |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | 15 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | .250 | .400 | .333 | .733 | .083 | .333 | 20 | 13 | .348 | 125 | +0 | +0 | — | — | +0 | 0.1 |
Career Path Comps
What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Scouting | At Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Peak 3 Yrs | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | HIT | PWR | SPD | EYE | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR |
| Matt Scheffler (OGILVIE) | 28 | — | — | — | — | .214/.288/.326 | .112 | .287 | 3 | 4 | 27% | 8% | 73 | -0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
|
✕Zack Short 2023 · MLB |
28 | 37→39 | 46→50 | 46→45 | 50 | .191/.285/.319 | .128 | .261 | 14 | 9 | 31% | 11% | 70 | -0.3 | .189/.283/.313 | .124 | .261 | 14 | 10 | 31% | 11% | 68 | -0.5 | .168/.270/.287 | .119 | .228 | 14 | 8 | 31% | 11% | 54 | -0.9 |
|
✕Stevie Berman 2023 · AAA |
28 | 39 | 46→50 | 48→40 | 48 | .200/.287/.330 | .129 | .255 | 14 | 5 | 26% | 9% | 73 | -0.1 | .215/.296/.335 | .120 | .285 | 13 | 7 | 27% | 9% | 79 | +0.3 | .199/.298/.266 | .067 | .267 | 9 | 0 | 27% | 12% | 60 | -0.2 |
|
✕Christian Lopes 2021 · AAA |
28 | 45→51 | 44→45 | 47→50 | 50 | .221/.297/.341 | .120 | .272 | 12 | 14 | 23% | 8% | 80 | +0.4 | .210/.289/.335 | .125 | .304 | 12 | 11 | 32% | 8% | 76 | +0.0 | .189/.277/.305 | .116 | .284 | 11 | 9 | 35% | 9% | 61 | -0.3 |
|
✕Alex De Goti 2023 · AAA |
28 | 43→46 | 41→45 | 51→50 | 47 | .206/.279/.307 | .101 | .275 | 8 | 8 | 27% | 8% | 63 | -0.8 | .196/.273/.279 | .083 | .270 | 6 | 10 | 28% | 9% | 54 | -1.4 | .174/.259/.229 | .054 | .247 | 4 | 10 | 28% | 9% | 33 | -1.3 |
|
✕Brad Cresse 2006 · AAA |
28 | 41 | 44→50 | 48→30 | 43 | .204/.269/.324 | .120 | .267 | 10 | 7 | 27% | 7% | 64 | -0.8 | .215/.275/.352 | .137 | .301 | 15 | 6 | 32% | 7% | 73 | -0.1 | .205/.267/.343 | .138 | .291 | 19 | 0 | 35% | 7% | 69 | -0.2 |
|
✕John Hester 2012 · MLB |
28 | 48 | 45→55 | 43→50 | 43 | .234/.286/.359 | .125 | .303 | 12 | 8 | 26% | 6% | 79 | +0.3 | .205/.263/.320 | .115 | .288 | 12 | 5 | 32% | 7% | 59 | -1.1 | .188/.247/.298 | .110 | .271 | 12 | 4 | 34% | 7% | 46 | -0.9 |
|
✕Tommy Field 2015 · MLB |
28 | 46→50 | 44→45 | 50→45 | 45 | .228/.288/.349 | .120 | .284 | 11 | 7 | 23% | 7% | 78 | +0.2 | .210/.274/.336 | .126 | .261 | 13 | 7 | 24% | 7% | 69 | -0.4 | .187/.252/.303 | .116 | .230 | 12 | 5 | 24% | 6% | 49 | -1.3 |
|
✕Scott Kingery 2022 · MLB |
28 | 42→51 | 48→55 | 52→55 | 43 | .214/.277/.362 | .149 | .292 | 15 | 13 | 31% | 7% | 77 | +0.1 | .202/.267/.327 | .125 | .300 | 13 | 21 | 35% | 8% | 63 | -0.8 | .201/.259/.337 | .136 | .285 | 17 | 26 | 34% | 7% | 59 | -0.8 |
|
✕Craig Stansberry 2010 · MLB |
28 | 45→47 | 43→50 | 44→50 | 49 | .221/.286/.333 | .112 | .269 | 10 | 10 | 21% | 8% | 72 | -0.2 | .223/.284/.334 | .111 | .283 | 10 | 11 | 24% | 7% | 72 | -0.2 | .217/.282/.324 | .107 | .281 | 10 | 12 | 25% | 7% | 67 | -0.3 |
|
✕Danny Mendick 2022 · MLB |
28 | 46→48 | 44→45 | 44→50 | 47 | .230/.290/.346 | .116 | .279 | 13 | 9 | 22% | 7% | 78 | +0.2 | .237/.296/.363 | .126 | .290 | 14 | 11 | 22% | 7% | 85 | +0.7 | .231/.290/.367 | .136 | .277 | 16 | 15 | 22% | 7% | 79 | +0.2 |
|
✕David Matranga 2006 · AAA |
29 | 44 | 44→45 | 48→50 | 49 | .215/.288/.336 | .121 | .269 | 10 | 13 | 24% | 8% | 75 | -0.0 | .203/.269/.324 | .121 | .266 | 14 | 11 | 28% | 6% | 64 | -0.8 | .212/.294/.334 | .122 | .284 | 13 | 9 | 28% | 8% | 75 | +0.0 |
|
✕Josh Wilson 2008 · MLB |
27 | 46→50 | 44→45 | 52→50 | 46 | .228/.282/.348 | .120 | .268 | 11 | 15 | 20% | 6% | 75 | -0.0 | .228/.281/.330 | .102 | .272 | 8 | 11 | 19% | 5% | 70 | -0.3 | .224/.273/.319 | .094 | .274 | 6 | 6 | 19% | 4% | 61 | -0.5 |
|
✕Andrew Knizner 2022 · MLB |
27 | 43 | 45→50 | 49→40 | 49 | .215/.292/.335 | .120 | .252 | 13 | 6 | 20% | 8% | 76 | +0.1 | .217/.288/.330 | .113 | .269 | 12 | 4 | 23% | 8% | 73 | -0.1 | .225/.294/.342 | .116 | .277 | 13 | 3 | 22% | 6% | 77 | +0.1 |
|
✕Bryan Holaday 2017 · MLB |
29 | 45 | 43→45 | 43→40 | 41 | .224/.271/.334 | .110 | .277 | 10 | 5 | 23% | 5% | 66 | -0.6 | .227/.279/.354 | .127 | .262 | 13 | 3 | 19% | 5% | 76 | +0.0 | .217/.286/.341 | .124 | .252 | 13 | 2 | 19% | 7% | 71 | -0.1 |
|
✕Tim Lopes 2022 · MLB |
28 | 44→54 | 45 | 52→55 | 44 | .222/.279/.351 | .129 | .282 | 12 | 19 | 26% | 6% | 74 | -0.1 | .217/.280/.338 | .121 | .295 | 13 | 23 | 29% | 7% | 72 | -0.2 | .218/.288/.324 | .106 | .301 | 11 | 31 | 29% | 8% | 68 | -0.4 |
|
✕Richie Martin Jr. 2022 · MLB |
27 | 44→53 | 42→45 | 50→60 | 42 | .218/.277/.323 | .105 | .285 | 10 | 15 | 26% | 6% | 66 | -0.6 | .211/.284/.309 | .098 | .287 | 5 | 30 | 26% | 7% | 66 | -0.6 | .203/.282/.295 | .092 | .280 | 4 | 40 | 26% | 7% | 58 | -0.7 |
|
✕Xavier Fernández 2023 · AAA |
28 | 46 | 44→50 | 46→40 | 44 | .231/.275/.338 | .107 | .277 | 12 | 6 | 22% | 6% | 69 | -0.4 | .242/.294/.389 | .147 | .288 | 16 | 5 | 21% | 6% | 91 | +1.1 | .249/.308/.429 | .180 | .289 | 20 | 0 | 21% | 7% | 105 | +1.4 |
|
✕JaCoby Jones 2020 · MLB |
28 | 43→47 | 48→50 | 51→50 | 41 | .215/.279/.365 | .150 | .293 | 15 | 15 | 31% | 6% | 79 | +0.3 | .217/.278/.364 | .147 | .320 | 16 | 9 | 35% | 7% | 78 | +0.2 | .194/.249/.314 | .120 | .315 | 14 | 5 | 41% | 6% | 49 | -0.6 |
|
✕Dan Butler 2015 · MLB |
28 | 43→39 | 45 | 44→40 | 45 | .213/.274/.334 | .121 | .264 | 12 | 3 | 24% | 6% | 69 | -0.4 | .217/.279/.315 | .098 | .282 | 7 | 3 | 24% | 7% | 65 | -0.7 | .214/.284/.310 | .095 | .269 | 9 | 0 | 22% | 8% | 63 | -0.3 |
|
✕Brad Davis 2011 · MLB |
28 | 42 | 47→50 | 43→45 | 44 | .213/.270/.353 | .141 | .266 | 15 | 4 | 26% | 7% | 72 | -0.2 | .213/.260/.321 | .108 | .282 | 10 | 6 | 27% | 6% | 58 | -1.2 | .197/.240/.283 | .087 | .265 | 6 | 4 | 27% | 5% | 37 | -1.1 |