Matt Scheffler — OGILVIE

Matt SchefflerC Tacoma Rainiers

Age 28 R/R 6'2" / 190 lbs AAA HR -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 170 proj PA

wRC+†76

AVG/OBP/SLG.219 / .290 / .336

PA170

HR3

K%26

BB%8

ISO118

MLB%10%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1.0M	+$0.3M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-1	$0.2M	—	—	—
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$2M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	23	A	2 teams	—	248	221	43	8	2	6	19	86	6	2	2	195	276	330	607	136	282	35	8	264	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	A	2 teams	—	248	211	52	11	2	7	29	64	6	2	2	246	354	417	771	171	317	26	12	345	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AA	Arkansas Travelers	—	298	257	57	6	2	1	32	74	6	10	2	222	322	272	594	51	303	25	11	278	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AA	Arkansas Travelers	—	298	244	61	7	3	1	45	59	6	10	2	250	380	316	695	66	321	20	15	325	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AA	Arkansas Travelers	—	259	228	39	5	1	1	21	73	8	8	2	171	265	215	480	44	244	28	8	226	31	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AA	Arkansas Travelers	—	259	216	45	6	1	1	33	61	8	8	2	208	335	259	594	51	282	24	13	285	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AAA	Tacoma Rainiers	—	15	13	3	1	0	0	1	4	1	1	0	231	333	308	641	77	333	27	7	276	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AAA	Tacoma Rainiers	—	15	12	3	1	0	0	2	3	1	1	0	250	400	333	733	83	333	20	13	348	125	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	28	MLB	SEA	—	170	152	33	6	1	3	13	45	3	4	1	217	292	329	621	112	287	26	8	285	76	-5	+0	+0	+3	+5	0.4
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	29	MLB	SEA	33%	243	218	48	9	1	5	19	64	4	5	1	220	295	339	634	119	287	26	8	287	78	-6	+1	-1	+4	+7	0.4
2028	30	MLB	SEA	46%	290	261	57	11	1	6	23	76	4	5	1	218	292	337	629	119	286	26	8	287	78	-7	+1	-2	+5	+8	0.5
2029	31	MLB	SEA	54%	278	250	55	10	1	6	22	73	4	4	1	220	293	340	633	120	284	26	8	285	76	-8	+0	-3	+5	+8	0.3
2030	32	MLB	SEA	58%	258	232	50	9	1	5	20	69	4	3	1	216	289	328	617	112	281	27	8	280	73	-8	+0	-4	+5	+7	0.1
2031	33	MLB	SEA	61%	228	205	43	8	1	4	18	62	3	2	1	210	283	317	600	107	277	27	8	273	67	-8	+0	-4	+4	+6	-0.2
2027	29	MLB	SEA	33%	79	72	16	3	0	2	6	21	1	2	0	222	291	347	638	125	284	27	8	273	67	-3	+0	-0	+1	+2	0.1
2028	30	MLB	SEA	46%	133	120	27	5	1	3	10	35	2	2	1	225	295	358	654	133	283	26	8	274	68	-5	+0	-1	+2	+4	0.0
2029	31	MLB	SEA	54%	149	134	30	6	1	3	12	39	2	2	1	224	297	351	648	127	281	26	8	272	66	-6	+0	-2	+3	+4	-0.0
2030	32	MLB	SEA	58%	150	135	29	5	1	3	12	40	2	2	0	215	289	333	622	119	278	27	8	267	63	-6	+0	-2	+3	+4	-0.1
2031	33	MLB	SEA	61%	138	124	26	5	1	2	11	37	2	1	0	210	285	315	599	105	274	27	8	261	58	-7	+0	-3	+2	+4	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	649	585	128	24	4	13	51	172	9	9	2	219	291	340	632	121	285	27	8	269	64	-26	+1	-7	+12	+18	-0.3
/ 162G	—			—	650	586	128	24	4	13	51	172	9	9	2	218	291	340	631	121	284	26	8	269	64	-26	+1	-8	+12	+18	-0.3
Career	—			—	2287	2037	428	73	11	37	188	626	43	44	12	210	291	311	602	101	282	27	8	274	68	-84	+4	-14	+41	+65	1.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	579	122	21	3	11	53	178	12	13	3	211	290	314	605	104	282	27	8	274	68	-24	+1	-4	+12	+18	0.4

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	23	A+	Everett AquaSox	—	79	70	18	4	0	4	5	23	3	1	1	257	333	486	819	229	318	29	6	357	131	+3	-0	—	—	+2	0.5
2021	23	A	Modesto Nuts	—	169	141	34	7	2	3	24	41	3	1	1	241	363	383	746	142	316	24	14	339	118	+3	-0	—	—	+5	0.8
2022	24	AA	Arkansas Travelers	—	298	244	61	7	3	1	45	59	6	10	2	250	380	316	695	66	321	20	15	325	107	+2	+1	—	—	+8	1.2
2023	25	AA	Arkansas Travelers	—	259	216	45	6	1	1	33	61	8	8	2	208	335	259	594	51	282	24	13	285	76	-7	+1	—	—	+7	0.1
2024	26	AAA	Tacoma Rainiers	—	15	12	3	1	0	0	2	3	1	1	0	250	400	333	733	83	333	20	13	348	125	+0	+0	—	—	+0	0.1

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#2Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	9	1,844	19	2	219	297	308	+17	+52	5.6	5.8
#2Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	/162	664	7	1	219	297	308	+6.1	+18.7	2.0	pk7: 6
#3Chad Moellerlast yr '09 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,524 PA	10	1,524	29	2	226	288	351	+19	+14	3.8	4.3
	/162	664	13	1	226	288	351	+8.5	+6.2	1.6	pk7: 5
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#5Guillermo Heredialast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,530 PA	6	1,530	25	6	231	311	345	+3	+17	3.5	3.5
	/162	664	11	3	231	311	345	+1.2	+7.6	1.5	pk7: 3
#6Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#6Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	3	666	13	10	218	288	335	+12	+12	1.0	1.0
	/162	664	13	10	218	288	335	+11.9	+12.0	1.0	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Matt Scheffler (OGILVIE)	28	—	—	—	—	219/290/336	117	287	3	4	26%	8%	76	+0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Pedro Severino 2021 · MLB	28	46→48	49→50	48→45	49	233/301/374	141	274	17	6	22%	8%	90	+1.0	239/299/374	135	304	15	6	25%	8%	89	+1.0	230/288/355	125	295	14	6	26%	7%	76	+0.0
✕Zack Short 2023 · MLB	28	37→38	46→50	46→45	51	190/285/315	126	261	13	9	31%	11%	69	-0.4	190/284/317	127	263	14	10	31%	11%	69	-0.4	173/272/299	126	234	15	8	31%	11%	58	-0.7
✕Andrew Knizner 2022 · MLB	27	43	43→50	48→40	50	212/293/324	112	254	11	6	21%	8%	75	-0.0	218/287/334	116	270	13	4	23%	7%	74	-0.1	218/299/361	142	257	17	2	22%	7%	83	+0.2
✕Brad Davis 2011 · MLB	28	43	48→50	44→45	45	219/279/365	145	272	15	5	25%	7%	79	+0.3	213/262/323	110	282	10	6	27%	6%	59	-1.1	198/242/289	91	267	7	4	28%	5%	40	-1.0
✕Chris Herrmann 2017 · MLB	29	47→48	47→50	57→50	46	230/294/372	142	295	13	11	26%	8%	86	+0.8	221/302/378	157	287	19	8	28%	10%	92	+1.2	209/296/361	152	272	19	4	29%	11%	83	+0.2
✕Chris Owings 2020 · MLB	28	43→53	47→50	48→55	41	219/272/353	134	292	14	16	30%	6%	72	-0.2	214/278/359	145	296	16	14	31%	8%	76	+0.1	184/261/307	123	264	15	11	35%	8%	53	-0.8
✕Christian Lopes 2021 · AAA	28	46→50	44→45	47→50	49	225/299/344	120	279	11	13	23%	8%	82	+0.5	212/291/340	128	302	13	11	32%	8%	78	+0.2	192/281/315	123	279	13	9	33%	9%	65	-0.2
✕Stevie Berman 2023 · AAA	28	40	47→50	48→40	48	204/290/339	135	259	14	5	26%	9%	78	+0.2	218/297/342	124	289	13	7	27%	9%	81	+0.4	195/295/265	70	263	10	0	27%	12%	58	-0.2
✕Chris Nelson 2014 · MLB	28	50→52	45→50	49→50	42	245/289/372	127	308	12	8	24%	6%	83	+0.6	221/273/316	95	277	9	5	22%	6%	63	-0.9	205/258/278	72	255	6	2	21%	6%	43	-1.1
✕Alex De Goti 2023 · AAA	28	44→47	42→45	51→50	49	214/289/322	109	281	8	8	26%	9%	71	-0.3	199/276/283	84	272	7	10	27%	9%	56	-1.3	177/262/235	58	247	4	10	27%	9%	36	-1.2
✕Austin Wynns 2019 · MLB	28	47→51	45	47→30	44	235/285/349	114	286	14	3	23%	6%	76	+0.1	223/276/327	104	271	13	4	22%	6%	66	-0.6	235/302/338	104	290	12	3	22%	7%	78	+0.1
✕Josh Wilson 2008 · MLB	27	47→50	43→45	52→50	46	231/285/348	117	271	10	15	19%	6%	76	+0.1	228/281/329	101	273	8	11	19%	5%	69	-0.4	226/275/323	96	276	6	6	20%	4%	63	-0.4
✕Scott Kingery 2022 · MLB	28	41→51	48→55	53→55	42	207/270/353	146	286	14	12	32%	7%	72	-0.2	199/262/324	125	297	13	22	35%	8%	60	-1.0	198/239/341	143	265	19	17	33%	5%	52	-0.8
✕Mike Rivera 2005 · MLB	28	45	45→55	49→45	46	227/285/353	126	275	13	8	22%	7%	77	+0.1	231/274/413	182	254	25	7	21%	4%	89	+1.0	213/254/387	173	231	25	6	21%	4%	71	-0.2
✕Tim Lopes 2022 · MLB	28	44→54	47→45	52→55	44	223/282/361	138	282	14	17	26%	7%	79	+0.3	219/286/337	118	300	12	24	29%	8%	74	-0.1	218/291/320	101	306	10	31	30%	9%	68	-0.3
✕Grayson Greiner 2021 · MLB	28	41	48→45	46→30	43	210/274/348	137	279	17	4	30%	8%	72	-0.2	197/260/308	111	344	12	5	43%	7%	56	-1.3	179/245/267	88	331	10	1	45%	7%	36	-0.9
✕JaCoby Jones 2020 · MLB	28	46	50	51→50	42	228/293/393	165	308	16	14	30%	7%	92	+1.2	219/280/368	149	328	16	9	36%	6%	79	+0.3	192/246/312	120	316	14	5	42%	6%	48	-0.7
✕Tim Olson 2006 · MLB	27	46	48→50	45→50	45	232/289/379	147	283	15	12	24%	7%	86	+0.8	225/268/357	132	293	15	12	27%	5%	71	-0.3	205/244/322	117	273	14	12	30%	5%	50	-0.7
✕Craig Stansberry 2010 · MLB	28	46→47	42→50	45→50	49	222/285/331	109	269	9	10	21%	8%	71	-0.3	228/286/343	115	289	11	12	24%	7%	76	+0.0	227/289/342	114	290	11	12	25%	7%	74	-0.0
✕Garrett Stubbs 2021 · MLB	28	46	44→45	54→50	47	229/290/350	121	273	12	17	21%	7%	79	+0.3	228/308/352	124	288	13	12	24%	10%	87	+0.8	220/310/331	111	279	11	10	23%	11%	81	+0.1