Kervin Pichardo
SS Harrisburg Senators| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 22 | AA/INTL2 orgs | 526 | .258/.320/.390 | 12 | 10 | 72 | — | .223/.266/.330 |
| 2025 | 23 | AAPIT | 361 | .201/.292/.332 | 8 | 5 | 40 | — | .173/.241/.281 |
| 2026 | 24 | AAWSH | 428 | .239/.347/.368 | 12 | 8 | 72 | — | .217/.295/.314 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 25 | MLBWSH | 4 | .202/.269/.306 | 0 | 0 | 63 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ31% MLB | 26 | MLBWSH | 79 | .204/.272/.310 | 2 | 1 | 65 | -0.1 | |
| 2029PROJ42% MLB | 27 | MLBWSH | 118 | .205/.273/.313 | 3 | 2 | 66 | -0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 30 / POW 40
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 17 | ROK | DSL Phillies Red | — | 164 | 140 | 30 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 20 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 214 | 321 | 243 | 564 | 29 | 250 | 12 | 10 | 270 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | A | Clearwater Threshers | — | 60 | 41 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 18 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 146 | 417 | 268 | 685 | 122 | 227 | 30 | 32 | 344 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK | FCL Phillies | — | 42 | 30 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 400 | 571 | 767 | 1.338 | 367 | 647 | 29 | 19 | 559 | 141 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 93 | 80 | 17 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 29 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 212 | 308 | 438 | 745 | 225 | 277 | 31 | 11 | 323 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A | Lake Elsinore Storm | — | 173 | 148 | 27 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 53 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 182 | 291 | 304 | 595 | 122 | 258 | 31 | 9 | 276 | 21 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | AA | San Antonio Missions | — | 51 | 44 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 205 | 286 | 364 | 649 | 159 | 241 | 27 | 6 | 283 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A+ | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 262 | 217 | 58 | 7 | 0 | 8 | 36 | 67 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 267 | 387 | 410 | 797 | 143 | 350 | 26 | 14 | 362 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AA | Altoona Curve | — | 459 | 421 | 106 | 14 | 2 | 11 | 27 | 128 | 6 | 8 | 4 | 252 | 305 | 373 | 678 | 121 | 337 | 28 | 6 | 302 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | INTL | Gigantes del Cibao | — | 67 | 56 | 17 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 304 | 418 | 518 | 936 | 214 | 364 | 16 | 16 | 411 | 164 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA | Altoona Curve | — | 361 | 313 | 63 | 13 | 2 | 8 | 35 | 97 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 201 | 292 | 332 | 624 | 131 | 258 | 27 | 10 | 279 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | — | 428 | 364 | 87 | 11 | 0 | 12 | 57 | 103 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 239 | 347 | 368 | 715 | 129 | 296 | 24 | 13 | 325 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Phillies Red | — | 164 | 145 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 24 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 131 | 222 | 145 | 367 | 14 | 160 | 15 | 7 | 178 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | A MLE | Clearwater Threshers | — | 60 | 46 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 25 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 130 | 333 | 239 | 572 | 109 | 208 | 42 | 23 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Phillies | — | 42 | 33 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 273 | 429 | 515 | 944 | 242 | 486 | 40 | 12 | 376 | 141 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | AAA MLE | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 93 | 83 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 36 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 157 | 231 | 289 | 520 | 133 | 247 | 39 | 8 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A MLE | Lake Elsinore Storm | — | 173 | 154 | 20 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 75 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 130 | 221 | 208 | 429 | 78 | 223 | 43 | 6 | 199 | 21 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | AA MLE | San Antonio Missions | — | 51 | 45 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 200 | 265 | 356 | 621 | 156 | 228 | 33 | 4 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A+ MLE | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 262 | 228 | 53 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 26 | 84 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 232 | 330 | 346 | 676 | 114 | 330 | 32 | 10 | 305 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AA MLE | Altoona Curve | — | 459 | 430 | 96 | 12 | 2 | 10 | 19 | 163 | 6 | 8 | 4 | 223 | 266 | 330 | 596 | 107 | 328 | 36 | 4 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA MLE | Altoona Curve | — | 361 | 324 | 56 | 10 | 2 | 7 | 24 | 125 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 173 | 241 | 281 | 522 | 108 | 237 | 35 | 7 | 228 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 428 | 382 | 83 | 10 | 0 | 9 | 39 | 126 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 217 | 295 | 314 | 609 | 97 | 291 | 29 | 9 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Phillies Red | — | 164 | 145 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 24 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 131 | 222 | 145 | 367 | 14 | 157 | 15 | 7 | 178 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Phillies Red | — | 164 | 140 | 30 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 20 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 214 | 321 | 243 | 564 | 29 | 250 | 12 | 10 | 270 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 102 | 79 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 42 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 165 | 353 | 316 | 669 | 152 | 314 | 41 | 19 | 307 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 102 | 71 | 18 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 27 | 30 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 254 | 480 | 479 | 959 | 225 | 410 | 29 | 26 | 432 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 266 | 236 | 34 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 19 | 111 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 144 | 232 | 254 | 486 | 110 | 240 | 42 | 7 | 214 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 266 | 228 | 44 | 13 | 1 | 7 | 26 | 82 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 193 | 297 | 351 | 647 | 158 | 264 | 31 | 10 | 292 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 313 | 272 | 62 | 6 | 0 | 9 | 29 | 101 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 228 | 323 | 349 | 672 | 121 | 323 | 32 | 9 | 298 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 313 | 261 | 67 | 8 | 0 | 10 | 39 | 81 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 257 | 371 | 402 | 773 | 146 | 331 | 26 | 12 | 349 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 526 | 494 | 110 | 14 | 2 | 11 | 22 | 187 | 6 | 10 | 4 | 223 | 264 | 326 | 590 | 103 | 334 | 36 | 4 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 526 | 477 | 123 | 19 | 4 | 12 | 38 | 139 | 6 | 10 | 4 | 258 | 320 | 390 | 710 | 132 | 340 | 26 | 7 | 316 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA MLE | Altoona Curve | — | 361 | 324 | 56 | 10 | 2 | 7 | 24 | 125 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 173 | 241 | 281 | 522 | 108 | 249 | 35 | 7 | 228 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA RAW | Altoona Curve | — | 361 | 313 | 63 | 13 | 2 | 8 | 35 | 97 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 201 | 292 | 332 | 624 | 131 | 258 | 27 | 10 | 279 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 428 | 382 | 83 | 10 | 0 | 9 | 39 | 126 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 217 | 295 | 314 | 609 | 97 | 295 | 29 | 9 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AA RAW | Harrisburg Senators | — | 428 | 364 | 87 | 11 | 0 | 12 | 57 | 103 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 239 | 347 | 368 | 715 | 129 | 296 | 24 | 13 | 325 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Phillies Red | — | 164 | 146 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 24 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 130 | 222 | 144 | 366 | 14 | 160 | 15 | 7 | 178 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 102 | 78 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 42 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 167 | 353 | 321 | 673 | 154 | 322 | 41 | 19 | 307 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 266 | 237 | 34 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 19 | 111 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 143 | 232 | 253 | 485 | 110 | 231 | 42 | 7 | 214 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 313 | 272 | 62 | 6 | 0 | 9 | 29 | 101 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 228 | 323 | 349 | 672 | 121 | 313 | 32 | 9 | 298 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 526 | 493 | 110 | 14 | 2 | 11 | 22 | 187 | 6 | 10 | 4 | 223 | 264 | 327 | 591 | 103 | 328 | 36 | 4 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA MLE | Altoona Curve | — | 361 | 329 | 56 | 10 | 2 | 7 | 24 | 125 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 170 | 241 | 277 | 517 | 106 | 237 | 35 | 7 | 228 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 428 | 383 | 83 | 10 | 0 | 9 | 39 | 126 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 217 | 295 | 313 | 608 | 97 | 291 | 29 | 9 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 526 | 493 | 110 | 14 | 2 | 11 | 22 | 187 | 6 | 10 | 4 | 223 | 264 | 327 | 591 | 103 | 328 | 36 | 4 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA MLE | Altoona Curve | — | 361 | 329 | 56 | 10 | 2 | 7 | 24 | 125 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 170 | 241 | 277 | 517 | 106 | 237 | 35 | 7 | 228 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 428 | 383 | 83 | 10 | 0 | 9 | 39 | 126 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 217 | 295 | 313 | 608 | 97 | 291 | 29 | 9 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB MLE | WSH | 2% | 380 | 346 | 69 | 10 | 1 | 8 | 28 | 116 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 202 | 269 | 306 | 575 | 104 | 276 | 31 | 7 | 261 | 63 | -17 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +8 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB CTX | WSH | 2% | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 202 | 269 | 306 | 574 | 104 | 276 | 25 | 0 | 261 | 63 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 26 | MLB MLE | WSH | 31% | 254 | 231 | 47 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 19 | 77 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 204 | 272 | 311 | 582 | 107 | 276 | 30 | 7 | 264 | 65 | -11 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +6 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB MLE | WSH | 42% | 281 | 256 | 52 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 21 | 84 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 205 | 273 | 313 | 586 | 108 | 277 | 30 | 7 | 266 | 66 | -11 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +6 | -0.2 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB MLE | WSH | 48% | 296 | 268 | 55 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 23 | 88 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 205 | 274 | 314 | 587 | 108 | 277 | 30 | 8 | 266 | 66 | -12 | +0 | -1 | +3 | +6 | -0.3 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB MLE | WSH | 49% | 296 | 269 | 55 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 23 | 88 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 205 | 273 | 312 | 586 | 107 | 276 | 30 | 8 | 266 | 66 | -12 | +0 | -1 | +3 | +6 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB CTX | WSH | 31% | 79 | 72 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 24 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 204 | 272 | 310 | 582 | 107 | 276 | 30 | 8 | 264 | 65 | -3 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +2 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB CTX | WSH | 42% | 118 | 107 | 22 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 35 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 205 | 273 | 313 | 586 | 108 | 277 | 30 | 8 | 266 | 66 | -5 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +3 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB CTX | WSH | 48% | 142 | 129 | 26 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 42 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 205 | 274 | 313 | 587 | 108 | 277 | 30 | 8 | 266 | 66 | -6 | +0 | -0 | +2 | +3 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB CTX | WSH | 49% | 146 | 133 | 26 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 43 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 205 | 273 | 312 | 585 | 107 | 276 | 29 | 8 | 266 | 66 | -6 | +0 | -1 | +2 | +3 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 485 | 441 | 88 | 13 | 0 | 11 | 37 | 144 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 200 | 268 | 304 | 571 | 104 | 266 | 30 | 8 | 265 | 60 | -20 | +0 | -1 | +5 | +11 | -0.5 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 591 | 118 | 17 | 0 | 15 | 50 | 193 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 200 | 268 | 305 | 572 | 105 | 266 | 30 | 8 | 265 | 60 | -26 | +0 | -1 | +7 | +14 | -0.7 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3497 | 3146 | 625 | 94 | 11 | 70 | 266 | 1117 | 51 | 62 | 21 | 199 | 272 | 302 | 574 | 104 | 281 | 32 | 8 | 257 | 60 | -55 | +1 | -2 | +14 | +29 | -1.3 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 585 | 116 | 17 | 2 | 13 | 49 | 208 | 9 | 12 | 4 | 198 | 270 | 301 | 571 | 103 | 281 | 32 | 8 | 257 | 60 | -27 | +1 | -1 | +7 | +14 | -0.6 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAHarrisburg Senators · 428 PAwOBA .319 → .275 (−44)K% 24.1% → 29.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.07% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 29.36% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.08% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 9.14% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.70% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 0.59% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.52% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×1.041 | ×0.998 | 24.72% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.21% | ÷1.000 | ×0.860 | ×1.041 | ×0.998 | 3.77% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.950 | ×1.041 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.60% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 3.58% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.041.
Result: wOBA .319 → .275; ISO .129 → .104; BABIP .296 → .291. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAAltoona Curve · 361 PAwOBA .276 → .228 (−48)K% 26.9% → 34.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.87% | ÷0.947 | ×1.220 | — | — | 34.61% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.70% | ÷1.033 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 6.65% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.39% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 1.19% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.52% | ÷1.024 | ×0.970 | ×0.998 | ×1.012 | 17.72% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.02% | ÷1.036 | ×0.860 | ×0.998 | ×1.012 | 5.05% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.93% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | ×1.012 | 0.77% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.70% | ÷0.891 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 3.28% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 78, 1B 105, 2B 107, 3B 130, K 89, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.998.
Result: wOBA .276 → .228; ISO .131 → .109; BABIP .258 → .237. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAAltoona Curve · 459 PAwOBA .294 → .256 (−38)K% 27.9% → 35.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.89% | ÷0.959 | ×1.220 | — | — | 35.47% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.88% | ÷1.022 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 4.14% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.31% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.027 | 1.14% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.96% | ÷1.018 | ×0.970 | ×1.008 | ×1.027 | 26.59% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.78% | ÷0.948 | ×0.860 | ×1.008 | ×1.027 | 4.48% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.68% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | ×1.008 | ×1.027 | 0.58% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.75% | ÷0.844 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.027 | 3.56% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 69, 1B 104, 2B 90, 3B 130, K 92, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.008.
Result: wOBA .294 → .256; ISO .121 → .106; BABIP .337 → .328. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Fort Wayne TinCaps · 262 PAwOBA .354 → .305 (−50)K% 25.6% → 32.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.57% | ÷1.014 | ×1.270 | — | — | 32.04% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.74% | ÷0.983 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.012 | 10.04% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.67% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.012 | 2.14% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.67% | ÷0.956 | ×0.920 | ×1.006 | ×1.012 | 28.08% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.67% | ÷1.118 | ×0.810 | ×1.006 | ×1.012 | 3.44% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×1.006 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.33% | ÷0.848 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 5.09% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 70, 1B 91, 2B 124, 3B 130, K 103, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.006.
Result: wOBA .354 → .305; ISO .143 → .126; BABIP .350 → .330. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AASan Antonio Missions · 51 PAwOBA .281 → .259 (−22)K% 27.5% → 33.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.45% | ÷0.987 | ×1.220 | — | — | 33.94% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.88% | ÷0.927 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.042 | 4.63% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.92% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.042 | 3.56% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.00% | ÷0.986 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.042 | 19.44% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.33% | ÷1.116 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.042 | 2.62% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.010 | ×0.940 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.67% | ÷0.820 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.042 | 6.78% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 64, 1B 97, 2B 123, 3B 102, K 97, BB 85 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .281 → .259; ISO .159 → .154; BABIP .241 → .228. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ALake Elsinore Storm · 173 PAwOBA .270 → .199 (−72)K% 30.6% → 43.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.64% | ÷0.968 | ×1.360 | — | — | 43.06% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.25% | ÷0.992 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 6.53% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.05% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 3.20% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.79% | ÷1.020 | ×0.920 | ×1.015 | ×1.015 | 14.68% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.47% | ÷1.115 | ×0.830 | ×1.015 | ×1.015 | 7.27% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×1.015 | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.16% | ÷0.938 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 2.73% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 104, 2B 123, 3B 100, K 94, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.015.
Result: wOBA .270 → .199; ISO .122 → .085; BABIP .258 → .223. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 93 PAwOBA .314 → .242 (−73)K% 31.2% → 39.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.18% | ÷0.959 | ×1.200 | — | — | 39.04% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.75% | ÷0.990 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 7.87% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.08% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 1.06% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.69% | ÷1.047 | ×0.930 | ×1.036 | ×1.050 | 15.16% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.84% | ÷1.133 | ×0.830 | ×1.036 | ×1.050 | 6.25% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.96% | ÷1.002 | ×0.970 | ×1.036 | ×1.050 | 2.06% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.84% | ÷1.138 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 5.07% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 128, 1B 109, 2B 127, 3B 100, K 92, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.036.
Result: wOBA .314 → .242; ISO .225 → .155; BABIP .277 → .247. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AClearwater Threshers · 60 PAwOBA .337 → .258 (−79)K% 30.0% → 41.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.00% | ÷0.992 | ×1.360 | — | — | 41.14% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 31.67% | ÷0.980 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 22.97% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 13.04% | ÷1.036 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.030 | 11.94% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.70% | ÷0.915 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.030 | 8.12% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | — | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.35% | ÷0.993 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 3.61% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 107, 2B 83, 3B 130, K 98, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .337 → .258; ISO .122 → .100; BABIP .227 → .208. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .