Rodney Theophile

Rodney Theophile P Wilmington Blue Rocks

Age 26 RHP 6'5" / 230 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.7 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 4 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.91

FIP4.91

K%20.0%

BB%12.9%

K-BB%7.0%

ROS IP4

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 4 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$1M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	18	ROK MLE	GCL Nationals	10	5	14	78	11	11	3	50%	1.4	9.6%	17.6%	-8.0%	5.4%	10.67	7.48	—
2018	18	ROK RAW	GCL Nationals	10	5	14	78	11	11	3	50%	1.4	14.1%	14.1%	0.0%	3.8%	10.67	6.59	—
2021	21	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	22	22	89	416	84	47	9	100%	4.0	14.9%	13.3%	1.6%	2.4%	5.56	4.86	—
2021	21	A RAW	Fredericksburg Nationals	22	22	89	416	84	47	9	100%	4.0	20.2%	11.3%	8.9%	2.2%	5.56	4.11	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	21	102	436	110	44	5	88%	4.3	19.0%	11.7%	7.3%	1.3%	3.25	3.70	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	21	102	436	110	44	5	88%	4.3	25.2%	10.1%	15.1%	1.1%	3.25	2.88	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	10	9	41	177	39	20	6	90%	4.1	17.0%	13.0%	4.0%	4.6%	3.48	5.86	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	10	9	41	177	39	20	6	90%	4.1	17.0%	13.0%	4.0%	4.6%	3.48	5.86	—
2023	23	A+ RAW	Wilmington Blue Rocks	10	9	41	177	39	20	6	90%	4.1	22.0%	11.3%	10.7%	3.4%	3.48	4.55	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	20	89	382	93	47	3	100%	4.5	19.2%	13.8%	5.3%	1.0%	3.53	3.76	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	20	89	382	93	47	3	100%	4.5	19.2%	13.8%	5.3%	1.0%	3.53	3.76	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	20	89	382	93	47	3	100%	4.5	24.3%	12.3%	12.0%	0.8%	3.53	3.03	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	26	MLB	WSH	1	1	4	17	3	2	0	100%	4.0	20.0%	12.9%	7.0%	2.7%	4.91	4.91	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	WSH	13	13	79	334	74	39	9	100%	6.1	22.1%	11.7%	10.5%	2.8%	4.70	4.61	+0.3
2028	28	MLB MLE	WSH	13	13	77	324	72	38	9	100%	5.9	22.1%	11.6%	10.5%	2.9%	4.68	4.67	+0.2
2029	29	MLB MLE	WSH	12	12	73	309	68	36	9	100%	6.1	21.9%	11.7%	10.2%	3.0%	4.74	4.79	+0.1
2030	30	MLB MLE	WSH	11	11	69	291	63	35	9	100%	6.3	21.6%	12.0%	9.7%	3.2%	4.86	4.95	-0.0
2027	27	MLB CTX	WSH	5	5	29	122	27	14	3	100%	5.8	22.1%	11.7%	10.5%	2.8%	4.70	4.61	+0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	WSH	8	8	45	190	42	22	5	100%	5.6	22.1%	11.6%	10.5%	2.9%	4.68	4.67	+0.1
2029	29	MLB CTX	WSH	9	9	52	220	48	26	7	100%	5.8	21.9%	11.7%	10.2%	3.0%	4.74	4.79	+0.1
2030	30	MLB CTX	WSH	9	9	54	228	49	27	7	100%	6.0	21.6%	12.0%	9.7%	3.2%	4.86	4.95	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		30	30	180	759	166	89	23	100%	6.0	21.9%	11.8%	10.2%	3.0%	4.75	4.40	+1.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	185	99	26	100%	6.0	21.9%	11.8%	10.2%	3.0%	4.75	4.40	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		86	77	336	1489	256	196	32	90%	3.9	17.2%	13.2%	4.0%	2.1%	4.28	4.50	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		51	46	200	885	152	117	19	90%	3.9	17.2%	13.2%	4.0%	2.1%	4.28	4.50	+0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Rodney Theophile (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.91	20.0%	12.9%	2.7%	—	4.69	22.1%	10.4%	229	-0.22	—	—	—
Burch Smith R 2017 · 3.93 FIP	27	SP	3.93	19.5%	12.6%	1.6%	.234	4.43	22.2%	10.5%	192	+0.50	3.50	382	85
David Lebron R 2019 · 4.28 FIP	25	SP-	4.28	18.6%	14.2%	1.7%	.336	5.56	26.7%	12.0%	62	+1.28	4.28	144	84
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	82
Alejandro Martinez R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	26	SP-	4.46	17.5%	10.9%	2.7%	.393	4.24	9.2%	3.9%	53	-0.22	4.24	166	80
Jake Walters R 2022 · 4.03 FIP	26	SP-	4.03	17.0%	9.4%	2.1%	.316	5.89	14.8%	0.9%	72	+1.86	3.51	261	80
J.P. Massey R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP	4.95	18.2%	16.0%	2.5%	.259	5.12	15.9%	0.6%	115	+0.17	4.72	195	79
Nick Pasquale R 2017 · 4.74 FIP	26	SP-	4.74	16.8%	12.7%	2.6%	.306	3.80	17.9%	6.3%	50	-0.94	3.19	308	77
Brandon White R 2023 · 4.93 FIP	23	SP	4.93	16.7%	10.3%	3.5%	.264	4.07	17.4%	10.5%	280	-0.86	3.90	299	77
Marcelo Perez R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	23	SP	3.84	18.0%	8.6%	2.1%	.288	4.99	14.7%	7.3%	238	+1.15	3.84	306	76
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.32	22.2%	14.8%	121	+0.13	3.16	258	76
Jake Lee R 2021 · 3.76 FIP	26	SP	3.76	20.5%	9.7%	2.1%	.362	5.44	15.8%	9.4%	113	+1.68	2.78	181	76
Jack Noble R 2023 · 4.42 FIP	23	SP	4.42	16.5%	13.1%	1.9%	.258	6.03	20.3%	8.2%	58	+1.61	4.42	125	75
Nick Hull R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	17.2%	12.1%	2.0%	.251	4.84	17.7%	6.3%	200	+0.58	4.26	292	75
Bradley Brehmer R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SP	4.43	14.6%	9.5%	2.5%	.349	3.27	20.0%	11.5%	94	-1.16	2.83	165	75
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	75
Michael Wagner R 2016 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	16.4%	12.3%	1.9%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	149	74
Phillippe Aumont R 2015 · 4.61 FIP	26	SP-	4.61	19.6%	18.2%	1.6%	.262	5.01	22.3%	10.4%	64	+0.40	4.61	147	74
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	74
Tony Dibrell R 2022 · 4.96 FIP	26	SP-	4.96	23.8%	17.4%	3.0%	.314	8.67	12.7%	-1.7%	29	+3.71	4.18	347	73
Paxton Schultz R 2023 · 4.90 FIP	25	SP-	4.90	19.1%	11.9%	3.5%	.319	4.05	22.7%	14.3%	222	-0.85	3.90	538	73

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.8	70	21.7%	11.9%	1.14	4.77
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10