Rodney Theophile P Wilmington Blue Rocks
Age 26 RHP 6'5" / 230 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.6 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 54 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121112vR 103
ERA4.51
FIP4.51
K%21.8%
BB%10.9%
K-BB%10.9%
ROS IP54
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 54 IP
K: -0.2 runs (Runs saved by strikeouts vs lg-avg K%)-0KBB: -1.1 runs (Runs saved by walk suppression vs lg-avg BB%)-1BBCONTACT: -0.6 runs (Runs saved on contact quality (HR suppression) vs lg)-1CONTACTSTAM: +2.2 runs (Replacement credit for innings volume)+2STAMTotal WAR: +0.03 (54 IP)+0.0WAR
0.00.00.0-0.1262829
Grades · Contract
Scouting Grades
K†5050
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2029
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2034
First FA Year   2035
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2026MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M
2030Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.0M $-0.3M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

YearAge LvlTeam GGSIPBF KBBHR GS%IP/G K%BB%K-BB%HR% ERAFIP WAR
201818ROKGCL Nationals10514781111350%1.49.6%17.6%-8.0%5.4%10.677.48
201818ROKGCL Nationals10514781111350%1.414.1%14.1%0.0%3.8%10.676.59
202121AFredericksburg Nationals22228941684479100%4.014.9%13.3%1.6%2.1%5.564.70
202121AFredericksburg Nationals22228941684479100%4.020.2%11.3%8.9%2.2%5.564.11
202222MIX2 levels242110243611044588%4.319.0%11.7%7.3%1.2%3.253.64
202222MIX2 levels242110243611044588%4.325.2%10.1%15.1%1.1%3.252.88
202323A+Wilmington Blue Rocks109411773920690%4.117.0%13.0%4.0%5.1%3.486.13
202323A+Wilmington Blue Rocks109411773920690%4.122.0%11.3%10.7%3.4%3.484.55
202424MIX2 levels20208938293473100%4.519.2%13.8%5.3%1.0%3.533.76
202424MIX2 levels20208938293473100%4.524.3%12.3%12.0%0.8%3.533.03
▸ 2026 Season
202626MLBWSH995422850256100%6.021.8%10.9%10.9%2.7%4.514.51+0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections   WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ
202727MLBWSH995322549246100%5.922.0%10.8%11.1%2.8%4.514.53+0.0
202828MLBWSH995221848246100%5.722.0%10.9%11.1%2.9%4.554.60-0.0
202929MLBWSH884920945236100%6.221.8%11.0%10.8%3.1%4.644.71-0.1
202727MLBWSH3320841992100%6.722.0%10.8%11.1%2.8%4.514.53+0.0
202828MLBWSH553012728144100%6.022.0%10.9%11.1%2.9%4.554.60-0.0
202929MLBWSH663514832165100%5.821.8%11.0%10.8%3.1%4.644.71-0.1
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career141485358783911100%6.121.9%10.9%11.0%2.9%4.584.25+0.8
/ 200 IP33332008441849226100%6.021.9%10.9%11.0%2.9%4.584.25+2.7
Career867733614892561963190%3.917.2%13.2%4.0%2.1%4.284.46+3.7
/ 200 IP51462008851521171990%3.917.2%13.2%4.0%2.1%4.284.46+2.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

Profile at Match Age Next 3 Yrs Career
CompAgeRole FIPK%BB%HR/BFBABIP FIPK%K-BB%IP ΔFIPLow FIPIPMatch
Rodney Theophile (OGILVIE) 4.51 21.8%10.9%2.7% 4.61 21.9%11.0%154 +0.10
Burch Smith R 2027 · 3.94 FIP 27 SP 3.94 19.5%12.6%1.6%.234 4.41 22.2%10.5%192 +0.47 3.39 382 82
Antonio Guzman R 2027 · 3.60 FIP 27 SP 3.60 18.8%11.2%1.2%.328 3.63 20.6%11.3%170 +0.03 3.22 254 82
Preston Johnson R 2026 · 3.47 FIP 26 SP- 3.47 23.4%9.5%2.1%.295 3.47 146 81
Jake Walters R 2026 · 4.17 FIP 26 SP- 4.17 17.0%9.4%2.4%.316 5.97 15.5%-0.2%72 +1.80 3.46 261 80
Alejandro Martinez R 2026 · 4.24 FIP 26 SP- 4.24 17.5%10.9%2.3%.393 4.44 9.2%3.9%53 +0.20 4.24 166 78
Jake Lee R 2026 · 3.56 FIP 26 SP 3.56 20.5%9.7%1.8%.362 5.50 16.2%9.2%113 +1.94 2.78 181 78
Rorik Maltrud R 2026 · 4.15 FIP 26 SP 4.15 18.9%7.9%3.0%.283 3.87 247 78
David Lebron R 2025 · 4.18 FIP 25 SP- 4.18 18.6%14.2%1.6%.336 5.07 26.7%12.0%62 +0.89 4.18 144 77
Jonathan Pintaro R 2026 · 3.52 FIP 26 SP 3.52 18.9%9.4%1.5%.264 3.82 24.9%12.4%117 +0.30 3.12 187 75
Yariel Rodríguez R 2027 · 3.80 FIP 27 SP 3.80 25.1%11.8%2.4%.275 3.77 24.2%12.3%89 -0.03 2.60 196 75
Isaac Coffey R 2026 · 3.95 FIP 26 SP 3.95 22.9%9.5%2.9%.312 3.65 287 75
Kumar Rocker R 2026 · 4.16 FIP 26 SP 4.16 20.5%8.7%3.1%.292 1.95 230 74
Chad Dallas R 2026 · 3.40 FIP 26 SP- 3.40 19.8%8.9%1.6%.299 3.40 322 74
Markus Solbach R 2027 · 3.61 FIP 27 SP 3.61 16.9%6.1%2.1%.311 4.76 17.1%9.1%111 +1.15 3.25 391 74
Trace Bright R 2025 · 5.42 FIP 25 SP 5.42 21.2%13.6%4.3%.309 4.22 373 73
Hector Noesí R 2028 · 4.21 FIP 28 SP- 4.21 17.6%8.1%2.9%.261 4.21 250 73
Cody Sedlock R 2026 · 4.83 FIP 26 SP- 4.83 19.9%10.9%3.7%.301 4.18 20.1%7.1%80 -0.65 4.16 378 73
Jackson Nezuh R 2024 · 5.06 FIP 24 SP 5.06 23.6%10.4%4.8%.259 3.77 258 73
Dawson Netz R 2025 · 4.42 FIP 25 SP- 4.42 23.3%10.7%3.5%.225 4.42 102 73
Tyson Hardin R 2024 · 3.45 FIP 24 SP 3.45 23.4%8.3%2.3%.349 2.47 177 72

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

PlayerYrsIP/yrK%BB%HR/9ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION45221.9%10.9%1.114.55
José Ruiz ('24)55222.2%10.4%1.414.41
Fernando Rodney ('19)55924.6%11.8%0.884.21
José Cisnero ('23)54224.8%11.3%0.943.84
Travis Wood ('17)38520.8%9.8%1.344.72
Jacob Barnes ('24)74222.1%9.6%1.214.58
Brandon Maurer ('18)45321.5%8.8%1.065.20