Rodney Theophile
P
Wilmington Blue Rocks
+0.5
WAR
Age 26
RHP
6'5" / 230 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 0.5 · 2026
ERA4.50
FIP4.50
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.8%
BB%10.9%
K-BB%10.9%
IP77
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.5peak
2026
K†5055
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 18 | ROK | GCL Nationals | 10 | 5 | 14 | 78 | 11 | 11 | 3 | 9.6% | 17.6% | 5.4% | 10.67 | 7.48 | -0.4 |
| 2021 | 21 | A | Fredericksburg Nationals | 22 | 22 | 89 | 416 | 84 | 47 | 9 | 14.9% | 13.3% | 2.3% | 5.56 | 4.81 | +0.4 |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | 24 | 21 | 102 | 436 | 110 | 44 | 5 | 19.0% | 11.7% | 1.3% | 3.25 | 3.70 | +1.9 |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | 10 | 9 | 41 | 177 | 39 | 20 | 6 | 17.0% | 13.0% | 4.5% | 3.48 | 5.81 | -0.4 |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | 20 | 20 | 89 | 382 | 93 | 47 | 3 | 19.2% | 13.8% | 1.0% | 3.53 | 3.76 | +1.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | WSH | 14 | 14 | 77 | 326 | 71 | 36 | 9 | 21.8% | 10.9% | 2.7% | 4.50 | 4.50 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | WSH | 14 | 14 | 77 | 324 | 71 | 35 | 9 | 22.0% | 10.8% | 2.7% | 4.49 | 4.49 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | WSH | 14 | 14 | 76 | 319 | 70 | 34 | 9 | 22.1% | 10.7% | 2.8% | 4.49 | 4.50 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | WSH | 13 | 13 | 74 | 312 | 69 | 33 | 9 | 22.0% | 10.7% | 2.8% | 4.52 | 4.54 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | WSH | 13 | 13 | 72 | 302 | 66 | 33 | 9 | 21.8% | 10.8% | 2.9% | 4.56 | 4.60 | +0.4 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | WSH | 13 | 13 | 69 | 292 | 63 | 32 | 9 | 21.6% | 10.9% | 3.0% | 4.63 | 4.67 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | WSH | 12 | 12 | 66 | 280 | 60 | 31 | 9 | 21.3% | 11.1% | 3.1% | 4.71 | 4.76 | +0.2 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | WSH | 12 | 12 | 63 | 267 | 56 | 30 | 8 | 21.0% | 11.2% | 3.1% | 4.80 | 4.86 | +0.1 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | WSH | 11 | 11 | 60 | 254 | 52 | 29 | 8 | 20.7% | 11.4% | 3.2% | 4.90 | 4.97 | -0.0 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | WSH | 57 | — | 57 | 239 | 48 | 28 | 8 | 20.3% | 11.7% | 3.4% | 5.01 | 5.09 | -0.1 |
| 2036 | 36 | MLB | WSH | 53 | — | 53 | 223 | 44 | 27 | 8 | 19.8% | 11.9% | 3.5% | 5.14 | 5.22 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 86 | 77 | 336 | 1489 | 256 | 196 | 31 | 17.2% | 13.2% | 2.1% | 4.28 | 4.47 | +3.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 51 | 46 | 200 | 885 | 152 | 117 | 18 | 17.2% | 13.2% | 2.1% | 4.28 | 4.47 | +1.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Rodney Theophile (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.50 | 21.8% | 10.9% | 2.7% | — | 4.51 | 22.0% | 11.3% | 226 | +0.01 | — | — | — |
| Randall Delgado R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.83 | 20.2% | 9.8% | 2.2% | .303 | 4.06 | 19.2% | 12.5% | 143 | +0.23 | 3.05 | 290 | 92 |
| Jesus Pirela R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.85 | 23.7% | 11.6% | 2.3% | .305 | 3.92 | 17.1% | 13.9% | 45 | +0.07 | 3.23 | 161 | 90 |
| Colton Murray R 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.05 | 21.2% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .295 | 4.28 | 21.8% | 13.1% | 41 | +0.23 | 3.34 | 187 | 90 |
| Collin Baumgartner R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.76 | 23.9% | 12.3% | 2.0% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.99 | 117 | 89 |
| Ronald Peña R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.22 | 23.4% | 11.6% | 3.0% | .273 | 4.53 | 18.7% | 7.1% | 88 | +0.31 | 3.70 | 187 | 89 |
| Héctor Neris R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.97 | 20.9% | 10.0% | 2.5% | .298 | 3.00 | 31.5% | 23.7% | 221 | -0.97 | 1.99 | 682 | 89 |
| R.J. Alaniz R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.90 | 20.7% | 8.9% | 2.6% | .318 | 3.29 | 23.8% | 15.0% | 96 | -0.61 | 2.45 | 362 | 88 |
| Cody Satterwhite R 2028 · 3.72 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.72 | 20.2% | 9.8% | 2.0% | .333 | 4.05 | 17.7% | 10.2% | 75 | +0.33 | 3.70 | 147 | 87 |
| David Goforth R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.06 | 17.4% | 9.8% | 2.2% | .287 | 4.58 | 14.1% | 3.6% | 184 | +0.52 | 4.06 | 256 | 86 |
| Alex Hoppe R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.89 | 22.8% | 12.7% | 2.0% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.89 | 176 | 86 |
| Taylor Grover R 2026 · 4.95 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.95 | 20.0% | 10.9% | 3.9% | .320 | 4.89 | 16.2% | 8.9% | 14 | -0.06 | 3.69 | 239 | 86 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.52 | 23.1% | 9.3% | 2.2% | .244 | 3.73 | 18.9% | 11.1% | 168 | +0.21 | 3.18 | 253 | 86 |
| Easton Sikorski R 2025 · 4.32 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.32 | 21.1% | 10.6% | 3.0% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.16 | 159 | 86 |
| Derek Gordon R 2025 · 4.59 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.59 | 19.9% | 9.3% | 3.6% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.59 | 146 | 86 |
| Tyler Myrick R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.74 | 20.6% | 9.8% | 2.1% | .307 | 5.33 | 13.0% | 4.1% | 59 | +1.59 | 3.36 | 204 | 86 |
| Jarret Whorff R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.84 | 21.6% | 8.2% | 2.8% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 206 | 86 |
| Brett McKinney R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.57 | 18.5% | 9.9% | 3.2% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 183 | 86 |
| Jose Rafael De Paula R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.45 | 19.9% | 9.8% | 3.3% | .278 | 4.78 | 22.7% | 10.3% | 89 | +0.33 | 2.65 | 315 | 86 |
| Ryan Middendorf R 2026 · 4.93 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.93 | 19.6% | 10.5% | 3.9% | .293 | 4.50 | 12.8% | -1.5% | 34 | -0.43 | 1.27 | 164 | 85 |
| Josh Martin R 2026 · 3.38 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.38 | 19.1% | 8.7% | 1.4% | .279 | 4.03 | 21.5% | 10.2% | 92 | +0.65 | 2.43 | 225 | 85 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.9M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.9M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.4M | +0.2 | $1.0M | +$0.6M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.4M | +0.1 | $0.5M | +$0.1M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $7M | — | — | — |
| Totals | $11M | $6M | -$5M | ||
Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.