Noah CardenasC
St. Paul Saints
Age 26
R/R
5'11" / 195 lbs
AAA
BB +3%
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 0.7 · 2028
wRC+†57
AVG/OBP/SLG.202 / .301 / .320
PA250
HR5
K%28
BB%10
MLB%10%
Scouting · now → future
HIT
36→36
PWR
42→42
SPD
45→45
EYE
58→58
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.7peak
2028
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2028
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2033
First FA Year 2034
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.9M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.2M | +0.2 | $0.9M | +$0.7M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.4M | — | — | — |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.6M | — | — | — |
| Totals | $4M | $4M | +$0.1M | ||
Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.
Career Projections (MLE)
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 21 | ROK | FCL Twins | 25 | 21 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .238 | .333 | .429 | .762 | .190 | .235 | 16 | 8 | .309 | 95 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +1 | 0.1 |
| 2022 | 22 | A | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | 401 | 330 | 74 | 18 | 1 | 8 | 53 | 100 | 15 | 11 | 5 | .224 | .357 | .358 | .714 | .133 | .293 | 25 | 13 | .319 | 102 | +1 | +0 | +0 | +7 | +11 | 2.0 |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | Cedar Rapids Kernels | 378 | 324 | 72 | 17 | 1 | 2 | 40 | 100 | 11 | 9 | 5 | .222 | .328 | .299 | .627 | .077 | .311 | 26 | 11 | .286 | 77 | -10 | -0 | +0 | +7 | +11 | 0.8 |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | Wichita Wind Surge | 305 | 266 | 35 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 31 | 96 | 8 | 4 | 4 | .132 | .243 | .222 | .464 | .090 | .182 | 31 | 10 | .218 | 25 | -26 | -1 | +0 | +5 | +9 | -1.3 |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA | 2 teams | 256 | 221 | 44 | 8 | 0 | 7 | 29 | 67 | 6 | 0 | 1 | .199 | .309 | .330 | .639 | .131 | .252 | 26 | 11 | .283 | 75 | -7 | -0 | +0 | +5 | +7 | 0.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | AAA | St. Paul Saints | 40 | 34 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .088 | .225 | .088 | .313 | .000 | .136 | 30 | 12 | .162 | -18 | -5 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +1 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | MIN | 210 | 182 | 35 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 22 | 59 | 4 | 2 | 1 | .192 | .293 | .297 | .590 | .104 | .261 | 28 | 10 | .278 | 71 | -7 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +6 | 0.3 |
| TOT | 26 | MLB | MIN | 250 | 216 | 38 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 27 | 71 | 5 | 2 | 1 | .176 | .282 | .264 | .546 | .088 | .239 | 28 | 11 | .260 | 57 | -12 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +7 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB 25% | MIN | 298 | 258 | 51 | 10 | 1 | 6 | 32 | 75 | 6 | 3 | 2 | .198 | .301 | .314 | .615 | .116 | .255 | 25 | 11 | .286 | 77 | -8 | -0 | +0 | +5 | +8 | 0.6 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB 37% | MIN | 336 | 290 | 59 | 12 | 1 | 7 | 36 | 85 | 7 | 3 | 2 | .203 | .306 | .324 | .630 | .121 | .258 | 25 | 11 | .288 | 78 | -8 | -0 | -1 | +6 | +10 | 0.7 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB 47% | MIN | 351 | 303 | 61 | 12 | 1 | 7 | 38 | 89 | 7 | 3 | 2 | .201 | .305 | .317 | .621 | .116 | .259 | 25 | 11 | .287 | 78 | -9 | -0 | -1 | +6 | +10 | 0.6 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB 55% | MIN | 361 | 313 | 63 | 13 | 1 | 7 | 38 | 93 | 7 | 3 | 3 | .201 | .302 | .316 | .618 | .115 | .258 | 26 | 11 | .285 | 76 | -10 | -1 | -2 | +6 | +10 | 0.4 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB 66% | MIN | 341 | 296 | 60 | 12 | 1 | 7 | 36 | 89 | 6 | 2 | 3 | .203 | .302 | .321 | .623 | .118 | .257 | 26 | 11 | .281 | 74 | -10 | -1 | -3 | +6 | +10 | 0.2 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB 75% | MIN | 317 | 274 | 54 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 34 | 84 | 6 | 1 | 6 | .197 | .299 | .310 | .610 | .113 | .255 | 26 | 11 | .277 | 70 | -11 | -2 | -4 | +6 | +9 | -0.2 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB 83% | MIN | 281 | 244 | 46 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 30 | 77 | 5 | 1 | 12 | .189 | .290 | .287 | .577 | .098 | .253 | 27 | 11 | .271 | 66 | -11 | -5 | -4 | +5 | +8 | -0.7 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | MIN | 236 | 205 | 38 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 25 | 66 | 4 | 1 | 24 | .185 | .286 | .283 | .569 | .098 | .251 | 28 | 11 | .265 | 61 | -10 | -9 | -5 | +4 | +7 | -1.4 |
| ▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 4096 | 3527 | 697 | 147 | 8 | 76 | 446 | 1084 | 93 | 43 | 70 | .198 | .304 | .308 | .612 | .111 | .260 | 26 | 11 | .281 | 73 | -125 | -19 | -20 | +73 | +116 | 2.6 | ||
| / 162G | — | 650 | 560 | 110 | 23 | 1 | 12 | 71 | 172 | 15 | 7 | 11 | .196 | .303 | .305 | .609 | .109 | .259 | 26 | 11 | .281 | 73 | -20 | -3 | -3 | +12 | +18 | 0.4 | ||
Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)
Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 21 | ROK | FCL Twins | 25 | 20 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .300 | .417 | .500 | .917 | .200 | .294 | 12 | 12 | .393 | 159 | +2 | +0 | — | — | +1 | 0.2 |
| 2022 | 22 | A | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | 401 | 310 | 81 | 18 | 1 | 9 | 73 | 70 | 15 | 11 | 5 | .261 | .425 | .413 | .838 | .152 | .308 | 17 | 18 | .382 | 151 | +23 | +0 | — | — | +11 | 3.5 |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | Cedar Rapids Kernels | 378 | 309 | 84 | 23 | 1 | 3 | 55 | 77 | 11 | 9 | 5 | .272 | .400 | .382 | .782 | .110 | .349 | 20 | 15 | .358 | 132 | +14 | -0 | — | — | +11 | 2.5 |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | Wichita Wind Surge | 305 | 254 | 44 | 11 | 0 | 5 | 43 | 71 | 8 | 4 | 4 | .173 | .311 | .276 | .587 | .102 | .219 | 23 | 14 | .281 | 73 | -9 | -1 | — | — | +9 | -0.1 |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA | St. Paul Saints | 129 | 107 | 25 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 20 | 26 | 2 | 0 | 0 | .234 | .364 | .458 | .822 | .224 | .243 | 20 | 16 | .368 | 139 | +6 | +0 | — | — | +4 | 1.0 |
| 2025 | 25 | AA | Wichita Wind Surge | 127 | 101 | 26 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 22 | 25 | 4 | 0 | 1 | .257 | .409 | .416 | .825 | .158 | .315 | 20 | 17 | .378 | 147 | +7 | -0 | — | — | +4 | 1.0 |
Career Path Comps
What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Scouting | At Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Peak 3 Yrs | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | HIT | PWR | SPD | EYE | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR |
| Noah Cardenas (OGILVIE) | 26 | 36 | 42 | 45 | 58 | .202/.301/.320 | .118 | .271 | 5 | 3 | 28% | 10% | 78 | +0.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
|
✕Ryan Ortiz 2014 · AAA |
26 | 40 | 43→45 | 46→40 | 47 | .199/.281/.306 | .107 | .269 | 11 | 4 | 29% | 9% | 65 | -0.7 | .203/.295/.294 | .091 | .287 | 7 | 4 | 29% | 10% | 67 | -0.5 | .185/.302/.243 | .058 | .271 | 3 | 0 | 28% | 13% | 55 | -0.7 |
|
✕Nick Fortes 2022 · MLB |
25 | 43 | 45 | 47→45 | 45 | .214/.278/.334 | .119 | .252 | 13 | 7 | 21% | 6% | 70 | -0.3 | .223/.283/.346 | .123 | .253 | 15 | 8 | 18% | 6% | 76 | +0.0 | .217/.272/.326 | .109 | .242 | 13 | 6 | 16% | 5% | 62 | -0.5 |
|
✕Zack Short 2022 · MLB |
27 | 36→39 | 49→50 | 47→45 | 49 | .192/.289/.338 | .146 | .258 | 18 | 7 | 32% | 10% | 77 | +0.1 | .192/.286/.318 | .126 | .265 | 14 | 10 | 31% | 11% | 70 | -0.3 | .179/.280/.288 | .109 | .251 | 11 | 11 | 31% | 12% | 58 | -0.7 |
|
✕Riley Adams 2023 · MLB |
27 | 42 | 50 | 43→40 | 43 | .209/.295/.363 | .155 | .298 | 17 | 4 | 34% | 8% | 86 | +0.8 | .225/.297/.384 | .159 | .313 | 17 | 4 | 32% | 7% | 92 | +1.2 | .221/.291/.378 | .157 | .312 | 18 | 2 | 33% | 7% | 84 | +0.3 |
|
✕Dan Butler 2013 · AAA |
26 | 44→39 | 44→45 | 47→40 | 47 | .216/.286/.333 | .117 | .265 | 11 | 3 | 22% | 7% | 73 | -0.1 | .211/.274/.329 | .118 | .263 | 11 | 3 | 23% | 7% | 67 | -0.5 | .214/.284/.310 | .095 | .269 | 9 | 0 | 22% | 8% | 63 | -0.3 |
|
✕Dusty Brown 2008 · AAA |
26 | 42 | 45 | 45→30 | 43 | .213/.267/.333 | .120 | .279 | 12 | 3 | 28% | 6% | 65 | -0.7 | .225/.286/.343 | .118 | .302 | 12 | 3 | 28% | 7% | 75 | -0.0 | .192/.264/.338 | .146 | .238 | 15 | 2 | 26% | 8% | 64 | -0.3 |
|
✕Andrew Knizner 2022 · MLB |
27 | 43 | 45→50 | 49→40 | 49 | .215/.292/.335 | .120 | .252 | 13 | 6 | 20% | 8% | 76 | +0.1 | .217/.288/.330 | .113 | .269 | 12 | 4 | 23% | 8% | 73 | -0.1 | .225/.294/.342 | .116 | .277 | 13 | 3 | 22% | 6% | 77 | +0.1 |
|
✕Donny Sands 2022 · AAA |
26 | 43 | 48→45 | 44→40 | 44 | .222/.271/.363 | .141 | .259 | 17 | 5 | 22% | 6% | 75 | -0.0 | .231/.291/.350 | .119 | .288 | 13 | 4 | 23% | 8% | 79 | +0.3 | .225/.294/.323 | .098 | .291 | 9 | 2 | 24% | 9% | 72 | -0.1 |
|
✕JJ Schwarz 2022 · AA |
26 | 38 | 44→45 | 47→30 | 44 | .195/.260/.302 | .108 | .268 | 12 | 4 | 31% | 8% | 54 | -1.4 | .216/.284/.346 | .130 | .306 | 15 | 4 | 32% | 9% | 76 | +0.0 | .206/.279/.334 | .128 | .290 | 16 | 1 | 33% | 9% | 68 | -0.3 |
|
✕Zack Collins 2022 · MLB |
27 | 43→42 | 50 | 44→40 | 52 | .213/.308/.370 | .157 | .298 | 17 | 4 | 32% | 12% | 92 | +1.2 | .201/.288/.349 | .148 | .295 | 16 | 6 | 35% | 11% | 79 | +0.3 | .187/.275/.334 | .146 | .279 | 17 | 5 | 37% | 10% | 67 | -0.3 |
|
✕Drew Ellis 2023 · MLB |
27 | 37 | 52→55 | 46→40 | 48 | .196/.288/.367 | .171 | .263 | 19 | 6 | 32% | 10% | 84 | +0.6 | .195/.284/.358 | .163 | .250 | 20 | 6 | 29% | 10% | 80 | +0.4 | .173/.269/.328 | .156 | .208 | 22 | 3 | 29% | 10% | 63 | -0.3 |
|
✕Wynston Sawyer 2018 · AA |
26 | 46 | 42→45 | 45 | 46 | .223/.294/.332 | .110 | .289 | 9 | 7 | 25% | 8% | 76 | +0.1 | .221/.292/.327 | .106 | .299 | 9 | 5 | 27% | 7% | 74 | -0.1 | .206/.283/.301 | .095 | .286 | 7 | 0 | 28% | 6% | 61 | -0.2 |
|
✕Stevie Berman 2022 · AA |
27 | 42 | 43→50 | 49→40 | 48 | .208/.284/.316 | .108 | .260 | 11 | 7 | 24% | 8% | 69 | -0.4 | .206/.292/.328 | .122 | .270 | 13 | 5 | 27% | 9% | 76 | +0.0 | .190/.289/.313 | .123 | .250 | 14 | 1 | 28% | 10% | 69 | -0.1 |
|
✕Dominic Miroglio 2022 · AA |
27 | 41 | 44→45 | 44→40 | 43 | .205/.269/.321 | .117 | .279 | 11 | 5 | 30% | 7% | 63 | -0.9 | .216/.284/.361 | .145 | .260 | 15 | 5 | 23% | 8% | 80 | +0.4 | .203/.270/.374 | .171 | .212 | 20 | 2 | 16% | 7% | 72 | -0.1 |
|
✕Wyatt Toregas 2009 · AAA |
26 | 46→38 | 47→45 | 43→40 | 46 | .233/.286/.366 | .133 | .267 | 15 | 5 | 20% | 6% | 82 | +0.5 | .217/.269/.334 | .117 | .256 | 14 | 4 | 21% | 6% | 66 | -0.6 | .209/.260/.307 | .098 | .246 | 12 | 0 | 21% | 5% | 53 | -0.5 |
|
✕Carson Blair 2016 · MLB |
26 | 43 | 47→50 | 48→30 | 41 | .203/.276/.342 | .140 | .328 | 14 | 3 | 40% | 9% | 72 | -0.2 | .201/.270/.322 | .121 | .337 | 13 | 5 | 41% | 8% | 64 | -0.8 | .173/.246/.277 | .104 | .300 | 13 | 2 | 44% | 7% | 39 | -0.6 |
|
●Luke Montz 2009 · MLB |
26 | 41→45 | 49→55 | 41→40 | 45 | .214/.275/.358 | .144 | .270 | 17 | 3 | 28% | 7% | 75 | -0.0 | .205/.273/.344 | .139 | .256 | 17 | 4 | 26% | 8% | 71 | -0.3 | .202/.277/.410 | .208 | .237 | 29 | 4 | 29% | 8% | 90 | +0.6 |
|
✕William Simoneit 2023 · AAA |
26 | 47 | 45 | 46→45 | 46 | .225/.305/.349 | .124 | .316 | 12 | 7 | 31% | 9% | 85 | +0.7 | .198/.271/.319 | .121 | .311 | 12 | 6 | 38% | 7% | 64 | -0.8 | .162/.232/.278 | .117 | .269 | 13 | 5 | 42% | 5% | 35 | -1.1 |
|
✕Craig Stansberry 2009 · MLB |
27 | 44→47 | 45→50 | 45→50 | 50 | .216/.290/.342 | .126 | .264 | 12 | 11 | 22% | 9% | 77 | +0.1 | .223/.285/.332 | .109 | .277 | 10 | 10 | 22% | 7% | 72 | -0.2 | .219/.280/.322 | .102 | .276 | 9 | 11 | 23% | 7% | 65 | -0.4 |
|
✕Quincy McAfee 2023 · AA |
25 | 39 | 43→45 | 43→45 | 46 | .192/.280/.301 | .108 | .265 | 11 | 7 | 30% | 9% | 63 | -0.8 | .198/.277/.336 | .138 | .251 | 16 | 10 | 27% | 7% | 71 | -0.3 | .186/.266/.336 | .150 | .221 | 18 | 12 | 25% | 7% | 63 | -0.5 |