Noah Cardenas

C St. Paul Saints
Age 27 R/R 5'11" / 195 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
Overview
AAAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2035
OGV OFP35OGV rank#2054MLB%10%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202424AAMIN305.173/.311/.2765434—.135/.246/.226
202525AAA/AAMIN256.245/.387/.43810076—.190/.301/.307
202626AAAMIN275.197/.339/.39013359—.157/.269/.285
2027PROJ10% MLB27MLBMIN16.186/.290/.31400740.0
2028PROJ31% MLB28MLBMIN60.187/.290/.31420740.0
2029PROJ40% MLB29MLBMIN86.187/.289/.31320730.0
Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Ext$0.8M2031Ext$0.9M2032Ext$3M2033Ext$5M2034Ext$7M
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AAA
BB%82
Z-Con%64
Chase%63
Whiff%56
Speed40
K%36
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 1.2, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 88%
CompsZack Short (age 27) · Drew Ellis (age 27) · Andrew Susac (age 27)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†74
AVG/OBP/SLG.186 / .290 / .314
PA16
HR0
K%31
BB%12
BABIP238
ISO119
MLB%10%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -4.8 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-5BATRUN: -0.4 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)-0RUNFLD: +0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: +2.8 runs (Positional adjustment)+3POSREP: +3.4 runs (Replacement-level credit)+3REPTotal WAR: +0.20+0.2WAR
0.00.51.00.00.027282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$1M ctrl surplus
Tools · ContractCON 39 / POW 48
Toolsscout grade
CONTACT39
scouting grade only
POWER48
scouting grade only
EYE58
scouting grade only
SPEED44
scouting grade only
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2029
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2034
First FA Year   2035
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M———
2030Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.0M $0.0M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202121 ROKFCL Twins — 2520 6101 331 00 300417500917 200294 1212 393 92 — — — — — —
202222 AFort Myers Mighty Mussels — 401310 811819 737015 115 261425413838 152308 1718 382 92 — — — — — —
202323 A+Cedar Rapids Kernels — 378309 842313 557711 95 272400382782 110349 2015 358 78 — — — — — —
202424 AAWichita Wind Surge — 305254 441105 43718 44 173311276587 102219 2314 281 34 — — — — — —
202525 AAASt. Paul Saints — 129107 25307 20262 00 234364458822 224243 2016 368 73 — — — — — —
202525 AAWichita Wind Surge — 127101 26703 22254 01 257409416825 158315 2017 378 80 — — — — — —
202626 AAASt. Paul Saints — 275223 444013 39699 31 197339390730 193217 2514 329 59 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202121 ROK MLEFCL Twins — 2521 5101 241 00 238333429762 190223 168 304 92 — — — — — —
202222 A MLEFort Myers Mighty Mussels — 401335 731617 489615 115 218342334676 116273 2412 304 92 — — — — — —
202323 A+ MLECedar Rapids Kernels — 378324 721712 4010011 95 222328299627 77304 2611 284 78 — — — — — —
202424 AA MLEWichita Wind Surge — 305266 36905 31908 44 135246226471 90182 3010 218 34 — — — — — —
202525 AAA MLESt. Paul Saints — 129113 22304 14312 00 195295327622 133228 2411 276 73 — — — — — —
202525 AA MLEWichita Wind Surge — 127108 20502 15324 01 185307287594 102256 2512 286 80 — — — — — —
202626 AAA MLESt. Paul Saints — 275235 37309 27839 31 157269285554 128190 3010 255 59 — — — — — —
202121 ROK MLEFCL Twins — 2521 5101 241 00 238333429762 190235 168 304 92 — — — — — —
202121 ROK RAWFCL Twins — 2520 6101 331 00 300417500917 200294 1212 393 92 — — — — — —
202222 A MLEFort Myers Mighty Mussels — 401335 731617 489615 115 218342334676 116281 2412 304 92 — — — — — —
202222 A RAWFort Myers Mighty Mussels — 401310 811819 737015 115 261425413838 152308 1718 382 92 — — — — — —
202323 A+ MLECedar Rapids Kernels — 378324 721712 4010011 95 222328299627 77311 2611 284 78 — — — — — —
202323 A+ RAWCedar Rapids Kernels — 378309 842313 557711 95 272400382782 110349 2015 358 78 — — — — — —
202424 AA MLEWichita Wind Surge — 305266 36905 31908 44 135246226471 90181 3010 218 34 — — — — — —
202424 AA RAWWichita Wind Surge — 305254 441105 43718 44 173311276587 102219 2314 281 34 — — — — — —
202525 AAA MLE2 teams — 256221 43806 29646 01 195305312617 118245 2511 281 76 — — — — — —
202525 AAA RAW2 teams — 256208 5110010 42516 01 245387438824 192279 2016 373 76 — — — — — —
202626 AAA MLESt. Paul Saints — 275235 37309 27839 31 157269285554 128193 3010 255 59 — — — — — —
202626 AAA RAWSt. Paul Saints — 275223 444013 39699 31 197339390730 193217 2514 329 59 — — — — — —
202121 ROK MLEFCL Twins — 2522 5101 241 00 227333409742 182223 168 304 92 — — — — — —
202222 A MLEFort Myers Mighty Mussels — 401335 731617 489615 115 218342334676 116273 2412 304 92 — — — — — —
202323 A+ MLECedar Rapids Kernels — 378324 721712 4010011 95 222328299627 77304 2611 284 78 — — — — — —
202424 AA MLEWichita Wind Surge — 305263 36905 31908 44 137246228474 91182 3010 218 34 — — — — — —
202525 AAA MLE2 teams — 256219 43806 29646 01 196305315620 119242 2511 281 76 — — — — — —
202626 AAA MLESt. Paul Saints — 275237 37309 27839 31 156269283552 127190 3010 255 59 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202424 AA MLEWichita Wind Surge — 305263 36905 31908 44 137246228474 91182 3010 218 34 — — — — — —
202525 AAA MLE2 teams — 256219 43806 29646 01 196305315620 119242 2511 281 76 — — — — — —
202626 AAA MLESt. Paul Saints — 275237 37309 27839 31 156269283552 127190 3010 255 59 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202727 MLB MLEMIN 10% 325281 52909 33928 31 185290313604 128238 2810 278 74 -10 +0 +0 +6 +7 0.2
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202727 MLB CTXMIN 10% 1614 2000 250 00 186290314604 128238 3112 278 74 -0 +0 +0 +0 +0 0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202828 MLB MLEMIN 31% 194167 31505 20555 11 187290314603 127240 2810 278 74 -6 -0 -1 +3 +4 0.1
202929 MLB MLEMIN 40% 218189 36606 22625 11 187288312600 125241 2810 276 73 -7 -0 -1 +4 +5 0.0
202828 MLB CTXMIN 31% 6053 10202 6171 00 187290314604 127240 2810 278 74 -2 +0 -0 +1 +1 0.0
202929 MLB CTXMIN 40% 8675 13202 9242 00 187289313601 125241 2810 276 73 -3 +0 -1 +2 +2 0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 146128 23404 15413 00 180281305586 125229 2810 277 71 -5 +0 -1 +3 +3 0.0
/ 162G— A+C — 650570 10318018 6718313 00 181282307589 126230 2810 277 71 -21 +0 -3 +12 +14 0.2
Career— MLE — 22071892 35769245 23559864 3019 189299299598 110247 2711 273 71 -18 -1 -2 +10 +12 0.2
/ 162G— MLE — 650557 10520113 6917619 96 189299298597 110247 2711 273 71 -20 -1 -2 +12 +14 0.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAASt. Paul Saints · 275 PAwOBA .323 → .255 (−69)K% 25.1% → 30.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA25.09%÷1.000×1.200——30.11%
BB% (unintentional) /PA14.18%÷1.000×0.690—×1.0039.81%
HBP% /PA3.27%—×0.940—×1.0033.09%
Singles /BIP17.53%÷1.000×0.930×0.976×1.00315.96%
Doubles /BIP2.60%÷1.000×0.830×0.976×1.0032.11%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.970×0.976×1.0030.00%
Home runs /BIP8.44%÷1.000×0.700—×1.0035.93%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.976.

Result: wOBA .323 → .255; ISO .193 → .140; BABIP .217 → .190. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAASt. Paul Saints · 129 PAwOBA .358 → .276 (−83)K% 20.2% → 24.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA20.16%÷0.989×1.200——24.45%
BB% (unintentional) /PA15.50%÷1.022×0.690—×1.01810.66%
HBP% /PA1.55%—×0.940—×1.0181.48%
Singles /BIP18.52%÷0.944×0.930×0.991×1.01818.41%
Doubles /BIP3.70%÷0.938×0.830×0.991×1.0183.31%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.970×0.991×1.0180.00%
Home runs /BIP8.64%÷1.253×0.700—×1.0184.92%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 151, 1B 89, 2B 88, 3B 100, K 98, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.991.

Result: wOBA .358 → .276; ISO .224 → .138; BABIP .243 → .228. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAWichita Wind Surge · 127 PAwOBA .369 → .286 (−83)K% 19.7% → 25.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA19.69%÷0.941×1.220——25.53%
BB% (unintentional) /PA17.32%÷0.992×0.700—×0.98812.08%
HBP% /PA3.15%—×0.870—×0.9882.71%
Singles /BIP21.05%÷1.025×0.920×0.950×0.98817.74%
Doubles /BIP9.21%÷1.031×0.840×0.950×0.9887.04%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.150×0.940×0.950×0.9880.00%
Home runs /BIP3.95%÷0.986×0.800—×0.9883.16%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 105, 2B 106, 3B 130, K 88, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .369 → .286; ISO .158 → .124; BABIP .315 → .256. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAWichita Wind Surge · 305 PAwOBA .275 → .218 (−56)K% 23.3% → 29.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA23.28%÷0.964×1.220——29.48%
BB% (unintentional) /PA14.10%÷0.963×0.700—×0.99810.23%
HBP% /PA2.62%—×0.870—×0.9982.28%
Singles /BIP15.30%÷1.091×0.920×0.984×0.99812.68%
Doubles /BIP6.01%÷0.979×0.840×0.984×0.9985.07%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.126×0.940×0.984×0.9980.00%
Home runs /BIP2.73%÷0.845×0.800—×0.9982.58%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 69, 1B 118, 2B 96, 3B 125, K 93, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.984.

Result: wOBA .275 → .218; ISO .102 → .089; BABIP .219 → .182. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Cedar Rapids Kernels · 378 PAwOBA .353 → .284 (−69)K% 20.4% → 26.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA20.37%÷0.977×1.270——26.48%
BB% (unintentional) /PA14.55%÷0.966×0.710—×0.98810.56%
HBP% /PA2.91%—×0.790—×0.9882.27%
Singles /BIP24.57%÷0.989×0.920×1.000×0.98822.59%
Doubles /BIP9.91%÷1.051×0.810×1.000×0.9887.55%
Triples /BIP0.43%÷0.994×0.850×1.000×0.9880.36%
Home runs /BIP1.29%÷1.134×0.800—×0.9880.90%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 127, 1B 98, 2B 110, 3B 99, K 95, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.000.

Result: wOBA .353 → .284; ISO .110 → .082; BABIP .349 → .304. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AFort Myers Mighty Mussels · 401 PAwOBA .376 → .304 (−72)K% 17.5% → 24.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA17.46%÷0.991×1.360——23.96%
BB% (unintentional) /PA17.96%÷1.026×0.690—×0.99011.95%
HBP% /PA3.74%—×0.780—×0.9902.89%
Singles /BIP22.08%÷0.988×0.920×0.976×0.99019.87%
Doubles /BIP7.50%÷0.916×0.830×0.976×0.9906.57%
Triples /BIP0.42%÷0.900×0.910×0.976×0.9900.41%
Home runs /BIP3.75%÷1.000×0.800—×0.9902.97%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 98, 2B 83, 3B 80, K 98, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.976.

Result: wOBA .376 → .304; ISO .152 → .129; BABIP .308 → .273. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ROKFCL Twins · 25 PAwOBA .398 → .304 (−94)K% 12.0% → 17.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA12.00%÷0.996×1.440——17.35%
BB% (unintentional) /PA12.00%÷0.989×0.620—×0.9757.34%
HBP% /PA4.00%—×0.720—×0.9752.81%
Singles /BIP23.53%÷1.027×0.820—×0.97518.31%
Doubles /BIP5.88%÷0.982×0.720—×0.9754.20%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.004×0.720—×0.9750.00%
Home runs /BIP5.88%÷0.982×0.780—×0.9754.55%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 105, 2B 96, 3B 101, K 99, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 19.5 → −2.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .398 → .304; ISO .200 → .162; BABIP .294 → .223. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).