Noah Cardenas — OGILVIE

Noah CardenasC St. Paul Saints

Age 26 R/R 5'11" / 195 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

2026 ROS PROJECTION265 act + 10 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†65

AVG/OBP/SLG—

PA1

HR0

K%30

BB%10

BABIP219

ISO114

MLB%10%

Value2026 · WAR

2026 MLB RUNS · solid = so far · light = projected ROS (park-applied)

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$1M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 38 / POW 44

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT38

scouting grade only

POWER44

scouting grade only

EYE57

scouting grade only

SPEED45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2021	21	ROK	FCL Twins	—	25	20	6	1	0	1	3	3	1	0	0	300	417	500	917	200	294	12	12	393	152	+2	+0	—	—	+1	0.2
2022	22	A	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	401	310	81	18	1	9	73	70	15	11	5	261	425	413	838	152	308	17	18	382	145	+21	+0	—	—	+9	3.1
2023	23	A+	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	378	309	84	23	1	3	55	77	11	9	5	272	400	382	782	110	349	20	15	358	129	+13	-0	—	—	+8	2.1
2024	24	AA	Wichita Wind Surge	—	305	254	44	11	0	5	43	71	8	4	4	173	311	276	587	102	219	23	14	281	76	-9	-1	—	—	+7	-0.3
2025	25	AAA	St. Paul Saints	—	129	107	25	3	0	7	20	26	2	0	0	234	364	458	822	224	243	20	16	368	135	+5	+0	—	—	+3	0.8
2025	25	AA	Wichita Wind Surge	—	127	101	26	7	0	3	22	25	4	0	1	257	409	416	825	158	315	20	17	378	142	+6	-0	—	—	+3	0.9
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2021	21	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	—	25	21	5	1	0	1	2	4	1	0	0	238	333	429	762	190	229	16	8	311	97	-0	+0	—	—	+1	0.0
2022	22	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	401	330	74	18	1	8	53	100	15	11	5	224	357	358	714	133	287	25	13	320	103	+1	+0	—	—	+9	1.0
2023	23	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	378	324	70	17	1	2	40	107	11	9	5	216	323	293	616	77	307	28	11	282	77	-10	-0	—	—	+8	-0.2
2024	24	AA MLE	Wichita Wind Surge	—	305	266	36	9	0	4	31	90	8	4	4	135	246	214	460	79	187	30	10	220	35	-24	-1	—	—	+7	-1.8
2025	25	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	—	129	113	22	3	0	4	14	31	2	0	0	195	295	327	622	133	224	24	11	271	70	-5	+0	—	—	+3	-0.2
2025	25	AA MLE	Wichita Wind Surge	—	127	108	22	6	0	2	15	32	4	0	1	204	323	315	638	111	266	25	12	291	83	-3	-0	—	—	+3	-0.0
2021	21	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	—	25	21	5	1	0	1	2	4	1	0	0	238	333	429	762	190	235	16	8	311	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	ROK RAW	FCL Twins	—	25	20	6	1	0	1	3	3	1	0	0	300	417	500	917	200	294	12	12	393	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	401	330	74	18	1	8	53	100	15	11	5	224	357	358	714	133	293	25	13	320	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A RAW	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	401	310	81	18	1	9	73	70	15	11	5	261	425	413	838	152	308	17	18	382	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	378	324	70	17	1	2	40	107	11	9	5	216	323	293	616	77	312	28	11	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	A+ RAW	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	378	309	84	23	1	3	55	77	11	9	5	272	400	382	782	110	349	20	15	358	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AA MLE	Wichita Wind Surge	—	305	266	36	9	0	4	31	90	8	4	4	135	246	214	460	79	186	30	10	220	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AA RAW	Wichita Wind Surge	—	305	254	44	11	0	5	43	71	8	4	4	173	311	276	587	102	219	23	14	281	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	256	221	43	8	0	6	29	64	6	0	1	195	305	312	617	118	245	25	11	281	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	256	208	51	10	0	10	42	51	6	0	1	245	387	438	824	192	279	20	16	373	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	—	25	22	5	1	0	1	2	4	1	0	0	227	333	409	742	182	229	16	8	311	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	401	330	74	18	1	8	53	100	15	11	5	224	357	358	714	133	287	25	13	320	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	378	324	70	17	1	2	40	107	11	9	5	216	323	293	616	77	307	28	11	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AA MLE	Wichita Wind Surge	—	305	263	36	9	0	4	31	90	8	4	4	137	246	217	463	80	187	30	10	220	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	256	219	43	8	0	6	29	64	6	0	1	196	305	315	620	119	245	25	11	281	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	23	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	378	324	70	17	1	2	40	107	11	9	5	216	323	293	616	77	307	28	11	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AA MLE	Wichita Wind Surge	—	305	263	36	9	0	4	31	90	8	4	4	137	246	217	463	80	187	30	10	220	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	256	219	43	8	0	6	29	64	6	0	1	196	305	315	620	119	245	25	11	281	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	26	AAA MLE	MIN	—	265	226	35	3	0	9	26	80	9	2	1	155	268	288	556	133	187	30	10	256	59	-13	+0	+0	+5	+6	-0.2
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	AAA RAW	MIN	—	265	214	42	4	0	13	38	67	9	2	1	196	341	397	738	201	213	25	14	332	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	26	AAA MLE	MIN	10%	10	9	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	111	200	111	311		218	30	10	264	65	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
▸ 2026 season — projected rest
ROS	26	MLB CTX	MIN	10%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0						219	0	0	245	65	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
FULL	26	MLB A+C	MIN	—	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0							0	0	245	60	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
TOT	26	AAA MLE	MIN	—	275	235	36	3	0	9	27	83	9	2	1	153	266	281	547	128	186	30	10	256	60	-13	+0	+0	+5	+6	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	MIN	31%	298	259	46	8	0	8	30	84	7	2	1	178	280	301	582	124	229	28	10	273	71	-10	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.1
2028	28	MLB MLE	MIN	42%	336	291	53	9	0	9	34	94	8	2	1	182	285	306	591	124	234	28	10	276	73	-11	+0	-1	+6	+7	0.2
2029	29	MLB MLE	MIN	46%	351	304	56	10	0	9	36	98	8	2	1	184	287	306	593	122	236	28	10	276	73	-11	+0	-1	+6	+8	0.1
2030	30	MLB MLE	MIN	48%	361	313	57	10	0	9	37	101	8	2	1	182	285	300	585	118	236	28	10	275	72	-12	+0	-2	+6	+8	0.0
2027	27	MLB CTX	MIN	31%	92	81	13	2	0	2	9	26	2	1	0	160	261	259	520	99	229	28	10	255	71	-3	+0	+0	+2	+2	0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	MIN	42%	141	123	23	4	0	4	14	39	3	1	1	187	286	317	603	130	234	28	10	259	73	-5	-0	-0	+3	+3	0.1
2029	29	MLB CTX	MIN	46%	161	140	25	4	0	4	16	45	4	1	1	179	281	293	574	114	236	28	10	260	73	-5	-0	-1	+3	+3	0.0
2030	30	MLB CTX	MIN	48%	174	150	28	5	0	5	18	49	4	1	1	187	291	320	611	133	237	28	10	258	72	-6	-0	-1	+3	+4	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	569	495	89	15	0	15	57	159	13	4	3	180	281	301	582	121	228	28	10	258	74	-19	-0	-2	+10	+12	0.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	565	101	17	0	17	65	182	15	5	3	179	280	299	579	120	228	28	10	258	74	-21	-0	-2	+12	+14	0.2
Career	—	MLE		—	2721	2338	441	90	2	56	293	745	72	32	19	189	298	301	599	112	248	27	11	277	74	-45	+0	-4	+24	+29	0.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	559	104	21	0	13	70	178	17	8	5	186	296	293	589	107	245	27	11	277	74	-22	+0	-2	+12	+14	0.2

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Curt Casalilast yr '24 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,566 PA	2.4	1,566	47	2	217	311	367	+28	+19	7.8	7.9
/162	664	20	1	+11.9	+7.9	3.3	pk7: 8
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#3Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#4Guillermo Heredialast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,530 PA	2.3	1,530	25	6	231	311	345	+3	+17	3.5	3.5
/162	664	11	3	+1.2	+7.6	1.5	pk7: 3
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	0.9	595	16	4	185	285	311	+11	+8	0.7	0.7
/162	664	17	5	+11.9	+8.9	0.7	pk7: 1
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Noah Cardenas (OGILVIE)	26	38	44	45	57	169/277/287	118	218	6	2	29%	10%	65	-0.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Ryan Ortiz 2014 · AAA	26	40	43→45	45→40	47	199/279/309	110	267	11	4	28%	9%	69	-0.9	206/297/296	90	292	7	5	29%	10%	73	-0.6	185/301/243	58	270	3	0	28%	13%	59	-0.8
✕Dan Butler 2013 · AAA	26	43→39	43→45	47→40	47	213/282/327	114	260	10	3	22%	7%	74	-0.6	208/271/316	108	262	9	3	23%	7%	66	-1.1	212/282/298	86	268	7	0	22%	8%	64	-0.5
✕Stevie Berman 2023 · AAA	28	39	45	48→40	49	198/286/319	122	254	12	5	26%	9%	74	-0.5	216/298/331	115	289	12	7	27%	9%	80	-0.1	197/296/255	58	267	7	0	26%	12%	61	-0.3
✕JJ Schwarz 2022 · AA	26	40	43→45	47→30	45	202/266/307	106	274	11	4	30%	8%	63	-1.4	220/287/341	121	307	13	4	31%	8%	78	-0.3	213/285/332	119	296	14	1	31%	9%	73	-0.4
✕Dusty Brown 2008 · AAA	26	42	44→45	45→30	43	212/265/329	117	275	11	3	27%	6%	67	-1.1	222/283/330	108	300	10	3	28%	7%	74	-0.6	189/261/325	136	237	14	2	26%	8%	65	-0.5
✕Cam Devanney 2023 · AAA	26	38→41	48→50	45	41	201/263/342	141	261	16	6	29%	6%	70	-0.8	216/279/360	144	284	15	8	28%	7%	80	-0.2	212/276/353	142	282	15	7	29%	7%	74	-0.4
✕Gavin Collins 2022 · AAA	27	40	43→45	44→40	44	202/271/309	107	256	12	6	25%	7%	65	-1.2	215/285/332	117	272	13	6	25%	7%	76	-0.4	204/266/298	94	236	10	3	18%	6%	59	-0.6
✕Chase Pinder 2022 · AA	26	40	43→45	44→45	46	198/281/301	102	271	11	5	30%	8%	68	-1.0	227/321/361	134	295	13	10	25%	11%	96	+1.0	222/324/360	138	289	14	11	26%	12%	95	+0.5
✕Dustin Garneau 2014 · AA	26	40→39	46→50	43→45	47	201/267/329	128	229	13	5	19%	7%	68	-1.0	206/265/338	132	235	15	6	20%	6%	70	-0.9	171/262/344	173	215	21	1	31%	8%	70	-0.3
✕Donny Sands 2022 · AAA	26	44	48→45	44→40	45	223/273/360	137	256	16	5	21%	6%	77	-0.3	226/287/333	107	287	11	4	24%	8%	76	-0.4	222/291/312	90	289	8	2	24%	9%	71	-0.4
✕Brian Serven 2021 · AA	26	38	45→50	43→30	40	195/251/314	119	251	12	5	28%	6%	59	-1.7	194/251/327	133	244	16	4	27%	6%	62	-1.4	217/296/335	118	314	12	1	32%	8%	79	-0.1
✕Zack Short 2021 · AAA	26	41→39	46→50	47→45	47	202/290/335	132	294	13	8	33%	10%	78	-0.3	190/285/318	128	262	14	9	31%	11%	74	-0.6	177/277/301	125	240	14	9	31%	11%	65	-0.9
✕Brad Davis 2010 · AAA	27	40	45→50	42→45	44	201/260/328	127	252	11	3	25%	7%	65	-1.2	218/270/336	118	284	11	5	26%	6%	70	-0.8	214/266/322	108	281	10	4	26%	6%	62	-0.8
✕Quincy McAfee 2023 · AA	25	39	42→45	42→45	46	191/280/293	102	262	10	6	29%	9%	65	-1.2	199/277/327	128	250	14	10	25%	7%	72	-0.7	186/267/323	137	222	16	12	24%	7%	65	-0.7
✕Dominic Miroglio 2022 · AA	27	42	44→45	43→40	43	210/274/328	118	283	11	5	29%	7%	70	-0.8	219/287/362	143	261	15	6	21%	8%	83	+0.1	203/270/374	171	212	20	2	16%	7%	76	-0.2
✕Jesus Alberto Vega 2008 · AAA	26	41	44→45	39→40	41	207/259/324	117	268	13	5	28%	6%	64	-1.3	215/272/325	110	272	11	4	24%	6%	69	-0.9	221/280/350	129	265	16	2	23%	6%	75	-0.2
✕Brendon Davis 2023 · AAA	26	40→43	50	47→50	44	207/277/363	156	267	18	10	29%	8%	80	-0.1	193/271/317	124	263	13	14	30%	8%	68	-1.0	168/255/275	107	235	10	17	31%	8%	50	-1.2
✕Julio E. Rodriguez 2023 · AA	26	43	47→45	49→30	49	219/299/345	126	283	16	6	28%	10%	84	+0.1	202/263/326	124	273	16	4	31%	7%	66	-1.1	180/235/292	111	239	15	1	31%	5%	45	-0.8
✕Grayson Greiner 2019 · MLB	26	45	43→45	43→30	46	218/282/328	111	286	10	3	27%	8%	73	-0.6	205/268/319	114	293	12	4	32%	7%	66	-1.1	184/247/277	93	298	11	1	40%	7%	47	-1.0
✕Steve Holm 2006 · AA	26	42	42→50	47→40	43	209/269/311	102	266	11	6	25%	6%	65	-1.2	226/294/371	145	273	17	4	23%	7%	88	+0.5	229/305/377	149	268	17	2	21%	8%	90	+0.3

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps