Braxton Ashcraft

P Pittsburgh Pirates

Age 27 RHP 6'5" / 218 lbs MLB Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 3.4 · 2027

Overview

MLBSP40-MANPre-ArbFA 2033

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	MIX2 levels	16	14	73	2.84	2.55	25.8%	4.0%	—	K 21.1% · BB 4.1% · FIP 3.41
2025	25	MIX2 levels	36	18	118	3.66	2.90	24.9%	8.2%	2.9	K 23.3% · BB 7.8% · FIP 3.12
2026	26	MLBPIT	28	28	165	3.65	3.37	25.9%	5.2%	3.1
2027PROJ	27	MLBPIT	27	27	162	3.64	3.66	26.1%	5.8%	2.4
2028PROJ95% MLB	28	MLBPIT	26	26	154	3.58	3.62	25.9%	5.9%	2.1
2029PROJ95% MLB	29	MLBPIT	24	24	147	3.70	3.78	25.4%	6.2%	1.7

Last 3 seasons WAR 6.0 · Next 3 projected WAR 6.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2032Service0.733First FA2033

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Arb-1$5M2031Arb-2$6M2032Arb-3$7M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo90

xwOBA vs76

K%70

Whiff%52

CompsTanner Bibee (age 25) · Ryne Nelson (age 26) · George Kirby (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9890vR 82

ERA3.64

FIP3.66

K%26.1%

BB%5.8%

K-BB%20.3%

Proj IP162

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 162 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$49M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL5050

CMD5555

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p9097.3

Whiff%

p5225.6%

p7025.9%

xwOBA vs

p760.287

FB+5.7 (47%)

SI (17%)

CU (26%)

SL-1.1 (22%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 0.733 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.4	$19M	+$18M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.1	$16M	+$15M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.7	$12M	+$11M
2030	Arb-1	$5M	+1.3	$8M	+$5M
2031	Arb-2	$6M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-3	$7M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$7M		$58M	+$49M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	18	ROK MLE	GCL Pirates	5	5	18	76	12	5	2	100%	3.5	10.7%	8.2%	2.5%	3.7%	4.58	5.26	—
2018	18	ROK RAW	GCL Pirates	5	5	18	76	12	5	2	100%	3.5	15.8%	6.6%	9.2%	2.6%	4.58	4.06	—
2021	21	A+ MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	10	10	39	158	41	12	8	100%	3.9	20.0%	8.7%	11.2%	5.1%	5.35	5.32	—
2021	21	A+ RAW	Greensboro Grasshoppers	10	10	39	158	41	12	8	100%	3.9	25.9%	7.6%	18.4%	5.1%	5.35	4.60	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	19	53	213	63	11	4	100%	2.8	21.7%	6.0%	15.7%	2.2%	2.39	3.23	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	19	19	53	213	63	11	4	100%	2.8	29.6%	5.2%	24.4%	1.9%	2.39	2.32	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	14	73	299	77	12	6	88%	4.6	21.1%	4.1%	16.9%	2.9%	2.84	3.41	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	14	73	299	77	12	6	88%	4.6	21.1%	4.1%	16.9%	2.9%	2.84	3.41	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	14	73	299	77	12	6	88%	4.6	25.8%	4.0%	21.7%	2.0%	2.84	2.55	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	18	118	511	127	42	8	50%	3.3	23.3%	7.8%	15.5%	1.8%	3.66	3.12	+2.6
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	18	118	511	127	42	8	50%	3.3	23.3%	7.8%	15.5%	1.8%	3.66	3.12	+2.6
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	36	18	118	511	127	42	8	50%	3.3	24.9%	8.2%	16.6%	1.6%	3.66	2.90	+2.9
2026	26	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	28	28	165	667	173	35	22	100%	5.9	25.9%	5.2%	20.7%	3.6%	3.65	3.53	+2.8
2026	26	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	28	28	165	667	173	35	22	100%	5.9	25.9%	5.2%	20.7%	3.6%	3.65	3.53	+2.8
2026	26	MLB RAW	Pittsburgh Pirates	28	28	165	667	173	35	22	100%	5.9	25.9%	5.2%	20.7%	3.3%	3.65	3.37	+3.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			54	36	235	959	244	58	25	67%	4.4	25.4%	6.0%	19.4%	2.6%	3.37	3.15	+5.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	PIT	27	27	162	684	178	40	21	100%	6.0	26.1%	5.8%	20.3%	3.0%	3.64	3.66	+2.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	PIT	27	27	162	684	177	41	21	100%	6.0	25.9%	5.9%	20.0%	3.1%	3.71	3.75	+2.2
2029	29	MLB MLE	PIT	26	26	155	653	166	40	21	100%	5.9	25.4%	6.2%	19.2%	3.3%	3.83	3.91	+1.8
2030	30	MLB MLE	PIT	24	24	145	614	151	40	21	100%	6.1	24.6%	6.5%	18.2%	3.5%	4.00	4.12	+1.3
2031	31	MLB MLE	PIT	23	23	136	573	137	39	21	100%	5.9	23.9%	6.8%	17.1%	3.7%	4.21	4.35	+0.9
2032	32	MLB MLE	PIT	21	21	125	529	122	38	21	100%	6.0	23.1%	7.2%	15.9%	3.9%	4.45	4.60	+0.4
2033	33	MLB MLE	PIT	19	19	115	486	108	37	20	100%	6.1	22.2%	7.7%	14.6%	4.2%	4.71	4.88	+0.0
2034	34	MLB MLE	PIT	17	17	105	442	94	36	20	100%	6.2	21.3%	8.2%	13.2%	4.5%	5.00	5.19	-0.3
2028	28	MLB CTX	PIT	26	26	154	650	169	39	19	100%	5.9	25.9%	5.9%	20.0%	2.9%	3.58	3.62	+2.1
2029	29	MLB CTX	PIT	24	24	147	621	157	38	19	100%	6.1	25.4%	6.2%	19.2%	3.0%	3.70	3.78	+1.7
2030	30	MLB CTX	PIT	23	23	138	583	144	38	19	100%	6.0	24.6%	6.5%	18.2%	3.2%	3.86	3.98	+1.3
2031	31	MLB CTX	PIT	22	22	129	545	130	37	19	100%	5.9	23.9%	6.8%	17.1%	3.4%	4.06	4.20	+0.8
2032	32	MLB CTX	PIT	20	20	119	502	116	36	18	100%	6.0	23.1%	7.2%	15.9%	3.6%	4.29	4.44	+0.4
2033	33	MLB CTX	PIT	18	18	109	460	102	35	18	100%	6.1	22.2%	7.7%	14.6%	3.9%	4.54	4.71	+0.0
2034	34	MLB CTX	PIT	16	16	95	401	86	33	17	100%	5.9	21.3%	8.2%	13.2%	4.2%	4.81	5.00	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		203	185	1126	4721	1148	314	153	91%	5.5	24.3%	6.6%	17.7%	3.2%	3.91	3.66	+16.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	33	200	839	204	56	27	91%	5.6	24.3%	6.6%	17.7%	3.2%	3.91	3.66	+3.0
Career	—	MLE		114	94	465	1924	441	120	57	82%	4.1	22.9%	6.2%	16.7%	3.0%	3.56	3.59	+11.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	40	200	827	190	52	25	82%	4.1	22.9%	6.2%	16.7%	3.0%	3.56	3.59	+1.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Braxton Ashcraft (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.66	26.1%	5.8%	3.0%	—	3.92	25.3%	19.2%	462	+0.26	—	—	—
Tanner Bibee R 2024 · 3.37 FIP	25	SP	3.37	26.3%	6.2%	3.1%	.280	4.29	20.1%	13.1%	370	+0.92	3.13	834	65
Ryne Nelson R 2024 · 3.62 FIP	26	SP	3.62	20.0%	5.1%	2.9%	.303	4.25	20.0%	13.5%	241	+0.63	3.62	828	65
George Kirby R 2024 · 3.12 FIP	26	SP	3.12	23.0%	3.0%	2.9%	.287	3.59	22.6%	16.6%	301	+0.47	2.18	905	64
Louis Varland R 2024 · 4.42 FIP	26	SP-	4.42	21.7%	7.2%	4.1%	.329	2.31	28.6%	21.4%	151	-2.11	1.70	689	64
Drew Rasmussen R 2022 · 3.22 FIP	27	SP	3.22	21.4%	5.3%	2.3%	.260	3.09	23.8%	17.7%	223	-0.13	1.21	694	62
James McDonald R 2012 · 4.18 FIP	27	SP	4.18	21.2%	8.8%	3.2%	.264	3.74	18.1%	4.3%	30	-0.44	2.99	506	61
Aaron Civale R 2022 · 3.63 FIP	27	SP	3.63	24.4%	5.4%	3.5%	.294	4.08	21.7%	14.5%	385	+0.45	3.33	1,207	61
Alec Marsh R 2024 · 3.93 FIP	26	SP	3.93	23.4%	7.0%	3.5%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	424	61
Chad Patrick R 2024 · 3.92 FIP	25	SP	3.92	22.5%	6.3%	3.5%	.262	3.78	23.0%	14.2%	268	-0.14	3.69	570	60
Matt Shoemaker R 2014 · 3.12 FIP	27	SP-	3.12	22.8%	4.4%	2.5%	.283	4.02	21.0%	15.3%	373	+0.90	3.12	728	60
Joe Ryan R 2023 · 3.87 FIP	27	SP	3.87	29.3%	5.1%	4.7%	.301	3.40	27.2%	22.1%	451	-0.47	2.41	976	60
Kutter Crawford R 2023 · 3.62 FIP	27	SP-	3.62	25.6%	6.8%	3.3%	.265	4.53	23.1%	16.4%	184	+0.91	3.30	741	60
Joaquín Benoit R 2004 · 4.49 FIP	27	SP-	4.49	20.8%	6.8%	4.2%	.302	3.31	23.7%	14.5%	249	-1.18	1.99	1,064	60
Will Warren R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	25	SP	4.26	24.5%	7.6%	4.1%	.344	3.77	23.7%	15.2%	318	-0.49	3.72	709	59
Griffin Canning R 2023 · 3.95 FIP	27	SP	3.95	25.9%	6.5%	4.0%	.291	4.64	19.8%	9.8%	352	+0.69	3.60	809	58
Jacob deGrom R 2015 · 2.57 FIP	27	SP	2.57	27.3%	4.8%	2.1%	.269	2.68	28.8%	23.0%	566	+0.11	0.74	1,692	58
Kenta Maeda R 2016 · 3.24 FIP	28	SP	3.24	25.0%	6.1%	2.7%	.275	3.48	27.0%	19.9%	413	+0.24	2.87	1,092	58
Shohei Ohtani R 2021 · 3.14 FIP	27	SP	3.14	29.3%	7.9%	2.8%	.259	2.86	32.4%	24.1%	298	-0.28	1.76	613	58
Michael Pineda R 2016 · 3.50 FIP	27	SP	3.50	27.4%	6.9%	3.4%	.334	4.02	22.9%	18.2%	242	+0.52	2.00	1,034	57
Bryce Miller R 2024 · 3.52 FIP	25	SP	3.52	24.3%	6.2%	3.1%	.235	4.75	22.3%	14.3%	222	+1.23	3.43	682	57

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.7	134	24.5%	6.6%	1.32	3.99
John Montefusco ('74-'86, 20 WAR*)	8.3	150	22.5%*	7.3%*	1.20*	4.16*
Michael Pineda ('22)	5.0	112	23.1%	5.3%	1.28	4.06
Harvey Haddix ('52-'65, 34 WAR*)	11.2	160	25.7%*	6.3%*	1.17*	3.93*
Mike Fiers ('21)	5.8	128	20.5%	7.0%	1.44	4.07
Fred Anderson ('09-'18, 10 WAR*)	4.9	164	24.6%*	7.1%*	1.17*	4.21*
Pablo López ('25)	4.8	121	24.9%	6.3%	1.07	3.81