José Tena

3B Washington Nationals

Age 26 L/R 5'10" / 195 lbs MLB Svc 2.180 · Ctrl thru 2030

Overview

MLB40-MANPre-ArbFA 2031

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	23	AAA/INTL2 orgs	489	.282/.340/.468	18	15	86	—	.252/.300/.401
2024	23	MLBWSH	168	.267/.298/.354	3	6	84	0.1
2025	24	AAA/INTL2 orgs	303	.279/.372/.420	6	22	99	—	.267/.335/.387
2025	24	MLBWSH	169	.243/.315/.355	0	3	92	0.0
2026	25	MLBWSH	288	.222/.303/.370	7	6	92	0.4
2027PROJ	26	MLBWSH	294	.231/.304/.365	6	8	90	0.1
2028PROJ82% MLB	27	MLBWSH	251	.230/.303/.362	5	6	89	0.1
2029PROJ82% MLB	28	MLBWSH	255	.228/.301/.357	5	6	87	-0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.6 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2030Service2.180First FA2031

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Arb-1$0.6M2029Arb-2$0.7M2030Arb-3$0.7M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

Avg EV69

Bat Spd65

Speed58

Barrel%44

xwOBA41

CompsHoy Park (age 26) · Jordan Danks (age 26) · Kyle Isbel (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†90

AVG/OBP/SLG.231 / .304 / .365

PA294

HR6

SB8

K%28

BB%9

BABIP309

ISO132

MLB%100%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$0M ctrl surplus

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 50 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT50

xAVG

300.235

POWER45

Barrel%

447.5

Avg EV

6990.4

Bat Spd

6572.9

EYE50

scouting grade only

SPEED55

Sprint

5827.8

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 365 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

317

—

wRC+

▶▶R

wOBA

201

294

▶▶R

ISO

042

092

▶▶R

BABIP

278

341

▶▶R

25.0%

24.6%

—

BB%

0.0%

6.6%

—

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2023

Service 2.180 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2028	Arb-1	$0.6M	+0.1	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Arb-2	$0.7M	—	—	—
2030	Arb-3	$0.7M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.8M		$0.9M	+$0.4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2018	17	ROK	DSL Indians	—	218	195	61	8	4	1	15	29	4	10	7	313	374	410	784	97	355	13	7	347	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	18	ROK	AZL Indians Blue	—	199	191	62	7	6	1	6	44	2	6	2	325	352	440	792	115	418	22	3	351	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	20	A+	Lake County Captains	—	447	413	116	25	2	16	27	117	5	10	5	281	333	467	800	186	355	26	6	352	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	20	INTL	Scottsdale Scorpions	—	75	62	24	6	1	0	10	10	1	2	1	387	479	516	996	129	444	13	13	432	179	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	AAA	Columbus Clippers	—	23	19	7	2	0	1	4	4	0	0	0	368	478	632	1.110	263	429	17	17	481	165	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	AA	Akron RubberDucks	—	550	516	136	25	6	13	25	138	3	8	5	264	301	411	712	147	332	25	5	312	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	INTL	Estrellas Orientales	—	154	139	36	5	1	2	8	32	2	4	3	259	309	353	661	94	312	21	5	290	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	MLB	Cleveland Guardians	—	34	31	7	2	0	0	3	13	0	0	0	226	294	290	584	65	389	38	9	270	68	-1	+0	-2	+6	+1	0.4
2023	22	AAA	Columbus Clippers	—	66	60	21	5	1	4	4	17	1	0	1	350	400	667	1.067	317	425	26	6	452	143	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	AA	Akron RubberDucks	—	362	308	80	20	1	4	41	104	6	16	7	260	358	370	728	110	371	29	11	327	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	INTL	Estrellas Orientales	—	91	80	22	2	0	0	10	21	1	7	1	275	363	300	663	25	373	23	11	312	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	MLB	Washington Nationals	—	168	161	43	5	0	3	7	41	0	6	1	267	298	354	652	87	342	24	4	293	84	-3	+1	-3	+2	+4	0.1
2024	23	AAA	Rochester Red Wings	—	448	408	117	21	2	18	34	115	2	15	8	287	345	480	825	194	359	26	8	361	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	INTL	Estrellas Orientales	—	41	36	8	4	0	0	3	13	0	0	1	222	282	333	615	111	348	32	7	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	MLB	Washington Nationals	—	169	152	37	13	2	0	15	37	1	3	1	243	315	355	671	112	319	22	9	302	92	-2	+0	-4	+2	+4	0.0
2025	24	AAA	Rochester Red Wings	—	240	209	60	13	1	5	30	59	0	21	5	287	377	431	807	144	379	25	12	361	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	INTL	Estrellas Orientales	—	63	53	13	2	1	1	7	17	2	1	1	245	355	377	732	132	343	27	11	330	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	MLB	Washington Nationals	—	288	257	57	13	2	7	27	90	3	6	2	222	303	370	673	148	311	31	9	303	92	-3	+0	-1	+1	+6	0.4
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	659	601	144	33	4	10	52	181	4	15	4	240	304	358	662	118	325	27	8	298	88	-9	+1	-9	+11	+14	0.9
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2018	17	ROK MLE	DSL Indians	—	218	199	40	5	2	0	11	35	4	10	7	201	257	246	503	45	234	16	5	231	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	18	ROK MLE	AZL Indians Blue	—	199	193	43	4	4	1	4	63	2	6	2	223	246	301	547	78	324	32	2	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	20	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	—	447	422	94	21	2	10	18	154	5	10	5	223	263	353	616	130	322	34	4	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	—	23	20	7	2	0	1	3	5	0	0	0	350	435	600	1.035	250	409	22	13	412	165	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	AA MLE	Akron RubberDucks	—	550	522	128	24	6	10	19	174	3	8	5	245	276	372	647	126	337	32	3	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	—	34	31	7	2	0	0	3	13	0	0	0	226	294	290	584	65	389	38	9	269	68	-1	+0	-2	+6	+1	0.4
2023	22	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	—	66	61	19	4	1	3	3	20	1	0	1	311	354	557	911	246	402	30	5	380	143	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	AA MLE	Akron RubberDucks	—	362	319	77	19	1	3	30	130	6	16	7	241	318	335	654	94	373	36	8	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	—	168	161	43	5	0	3	7	41	0	6	1	267	298	354	652	87	342	24	4	292	84	-3	+1	-3	+2	+4	0.1
2024	23	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	—	448	416	105	19	2	13	26	144	2	15	8	252	300	401	701	149	347	32	6	298	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	—	169	152	37	13	2	0	15	37	1	3	1	243	315	355	671	112	319	22	9	304	92	-2	+0	-4	+2	+4	0.0
2025	24	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	—	240	217	58	12	1	4	22	69	0	21	5	267	335	387	722	120	370	29	9	312	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	—	288	257	57	13	2	7	27	90	3	6	2	222	303	370	673	148	311	31	9	304	92	-3	+0	-1	+1	+6	0.4
2018	17	ROK MLE	DSL Indians	—	218	199	40	5	2	0	11	35	4	10	7	201	257	246	503	45	238	16	5	231	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	17	ROK RAW	DSL Indians	—	218	195	61	8	4	1	15	29	4	10	7	313	374	410	784	97	355	13	7	347	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	18	ROK MLE	AZL Indians Blue	—	199	193	43	4	4	1	4	63	2	6	2	223	246	301	547	78	326	32	2	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	18	ROK RAW	AZL Indians Blue	—	199	191	62	7	6	1	6	44	2	6	2	325	352	440	792	115	418	22	3	351	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	20	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	522	491	111	25	2	12	21	180	6	12	6	226	266	358	625	132	327	34	4	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	20	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	522	475	140	31	3	16	37	127	6	12	6	295	353	474	827	179	369	24	7	363	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	AA MLE	3 teams	—	727	683	171	33	8	13	28	226	5	12	8	250	285	379	664	129	349	31	4	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	AA RAW	3 teams	—	727	674	179	32	7	16	37	174	5	12	8	266	309	405	714	139	331	24	5	313	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	AA MLE	4 teams	—	553	494	123	30	2	7	43	195	8	23	9	249	319	360	680	111	389	35	8	303	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	AA RAW	4 teams	—	553	479	130	29	2	8	58	155	8	23	9	271	360	390	750	119	379	28	10	336	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	657	614	157	25	2	17	35	197	2	21	10	256	298	386	684	130	349	30	5	296	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	657	605	168	30	2	21	44	169	2	21	10	278	329	438	767	160	353	26	7	337	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	472	423	109	28	4	4	43	122	3	25	7	258	330	371	702	113	352	26	9	309	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	472	414	110	28	4	6	52	113	3	25	7	266	352	396	748	130	351	24	11	336	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	—	288	257	57	13	2	7	27	90	3	6	2	222	303	370	673	148	311	31	9	304	92	-3	+0	-1	+1	+6	0.4
2026	25	MLB RAW	Washington Nationals	—	288	257	57	13	2	7	27	90	3	6	2	222	303	370	673	148	311	31	9	303	92	-3	+0	-1	+1	+6	0.4
2018	17	ROK MLE	DSL Indians	—	218	201	40	5	2	0	11	35	4	10	7	199	257	244	501	45	234	16	5	231	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	18	ROK MLE	AZL Indians Blue	—	199	191	43	4	4	1	4	63	2	6	2	225	246	304	550	79	324	32	2	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	20	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	522	490	111	25	2	12	21	180	6	12	6	227	266	359	626	133	322	34	4	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	AA MLE	3 teams	—	727	688	171	33	8	13	28	226	5	12	8	249	285	376	661	128	340	31	4	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	AA MLE	4 teams	—	553	497	123	30	2	7	43	195	8	23	9	247	319	358	677	111	378	35	8	303	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	657	615	157	25	2	17	35	197	2	21	10	255	298	385	683	130	346	30	5	296	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	472	423	109	28	4	4	43	122	3	25	7	258	330	371	702	113	349	26	9	309	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	—	288	256	57	13	2	7	27	90	3	6	2	223	303	371	674	148	311	31	9	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	23	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	657	615	157	25	2	17	35	197	2	21	10	255	298	385	683	130	346	30	5	296	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	472	423	109	28	4	4	43	122	3	25	7	258	330	371	702	113	349	26	9	309	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	—	288	256	57	13	2	7	27	90	3	6	2	223	303	371	674	148	311	31	9	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	26	MLB MLE	WSH	100%	398	358	83	18	3	8	34	112	3	11	3	232	305	367	672	136	310	28	9	301	90	-5	+1	-4	+1	+9	0.3
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	26	MLB CTX	WSH	100%	294	265	61	13	2	6	25	83	2	8	2	231	304	365	669	134	309	28	9	300	90	-4	+1	-3	+1	+6	0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	WSH	82%	306	275	63	14	2	6	26	87	2	8	2	230	303	364	668	134	309	28	8	299	89	-4	+1	-3	+1	+7	0.1
2029	28	MLB MLE	WSH	82%	311	279	64	14	2	6	27	89	2	7	2	228	301	359	661	131	308	29	9	296	87	-5	+1	-4	+1	+7	-0.1
2030	29	MLB MLE	WSH	82%	303	272	62	13	2	6	26	87	2	5	2	226	298	353	651	127	306	29	9	293	84	-6	+0	-5	+1	+7	-0.3
2031	30	MLB MLE	WSH	82%	297	268	59	13	2	5	25	87	2	4	1	222	294	344	639	122	304	29	8	287	81	-7	+0	-5	+1	+6	-0.4
2028	27	MLB CTX	WSH	82%	251	225	51	11	1	5	22	71	2	6	2	230	303	362	665	132	309	28	9	298	89	-3	+0	-3	+1	+5	0.1
2029	28	MLB CTX	WSH	82%	255	229	51	11	1	5	22	73	2	6	1	228	301	357	658	129	307	29	9	295	87	-4	+1	-3	+1	+6	-0.0
2030	29	MLB CTX	WSH	82%	248	223	50	11	1	5	21	72	2	4	1	225	298	351	649	125	306	29	8	292	84	-5	+0	-4	+1	+5	-0.2
2031	30	MLB CTX	WSH	82%	244	219	48	11	1	4	21	71	2	3	1	222	294	342	636	121	303	29	9	287	81	-6	+0	-4	+1	+5	-0.4
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1657	1497	344	77	8	29	138	468	12	34	9	230	300	350	650	120	313	28	8	295	81	-27	+3	-23	+15	+36	0.4
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	587	134	30	3	11	54	184	5	13	4	228	299	346	645	118	312	28	8	295	81	-11	+1	-9	+6	+14	0.2
Career	—	MLE		—	5147	4713	1120	230	36	90	341	1541	43	147	60	238	295	359	654	121	331	30	7	288	81	-35	+4	-29	+16	+47	0.4
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	595	141	29	5	11	43	195	5	19	8	237	293	358	651	121	331	30	7	288	81	-10	+1	-9	+5	+14	0.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAARochester Red Wings · 240 PAwOBA .352 → .312 (−40)K% 24.6% → 28.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.58%	÷1.028	×1.200	—	—	28.70%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.50%	÷0.978	×0.690	—	×1.048	9.24%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.048	0.00%
Singles /BIP	27.33%	÷0.987	×0.930	×1.026	×1.048	27.68%
Doubles /BIP	8.67%	÷1.000	×0.830	×1.026	×1.048	7.74%
Triples /BIP	0.67%	÷1.150	×0.970	×1.026	×1.048	0.60%
Home runs /BIP	3.33%	÷0.960	×0.700	—	×1.048	2.55%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 97, 2B 100, 3B 130, K 106, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.026.

Result: wOBA .352 → .312; ISO .144 → .118; BABIP .379 → .370. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAARochester Red Wings · 448 PAwOBA .352 → .298 (−53)K% 25.7% → 32.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.67%	÷0.958	×1.200	—	—	32.14%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.59%	÷0.969	×0.690	—	×1.050	5.67%
HBP% /PA	0.45%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	0.44%
Singles /BIP	25.94%	÷1.029	×0.930	×1.048	×1.050	25.79%
Doubles /BIP	7.17%	÷0.962	×0.830	×1.048	×1.050	6.80%
Triples /BIP	0.68%	÷1.150	×0.970	×1.048	×1.050	0.63%
Home runs /BIP	6.14%	÷0.986	×0.700	—	×1.050	4.58%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 106, 2B 92, 3B 130, K 92, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.048.

Result: wOBA .352 → .298; ISO .194 → .148; BABIP .359 → .347. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAkron RubberDucks · 362 PAwOBA .324 → .292 (−32)K% 28.7% → 35.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	28.73%	÷0.977	×1.220	—	—	35.86%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.33%	÷0.988	×0.700	—	×1.042	8.36%
HBP% /PA	1.66%	—	×0.850	—	×1.042	1.47%
Singles /BIP	26.96%	÷0.995	×0.970	×1.010	×1.042	27.66%
Doubles /BIP	9.80%	÷0.933	×0.860	×1.010	×1.042	9.51%
Triples /BIP	0.49%	÷1.053	×0.950	×1.010	×1.042	0.47%
Home runs /BIP	1.96%	÷0.909	×0.780	—	×1.042	1.75%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 99, 2B 87, 3B 111, K 95, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.010.

Result: wOBA .324 → .292; ISO .110 → .100; BABIP .371 → .373. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAColumbus Clippers · 66 PAwOBA .446 → .380 (−65)K% 25.8% → 30.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.76%	÷1.008	×1.200	—	—	30.67%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.06%	÷0.994	×0.690	—	×1.050	4.42%
HBP% /PA	1.52%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	1.50%
Singles /BIP	25.58%	÷0.963	×0.930	—	×1.050	25.94%
Doubles /BIP	11.63%	÷1.018	×0.830	—	×1.050	9.96%
Triples /BIP	2.33%	÷0.900	×0.970	—	×1.050	2.63%
Home runs /BIP	9.30%	÷1.037	×0.700	—	×1.050	6.59%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 93, 2B 104, 3B 80, K 102, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .446 → .380; ISO .317 → .244; BABIP .425 → .402. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAkron RubberDucks · 550 PAwOBA .306 → .277 (−29)K% 25.1% → 31.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.09%	÷0.969	×1.220	—	—	31.59%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	4.55%	÷0.995	×0.700	—	×1.050	3.36%
HBP% /PA	0.55%	—	×0.850	—	×1.050	0.49%
Singles /BIP	24.34%	÷1.052	×0.970	×1.050	×1.050	24.74%
Doubles /BIP	6.61%	÷0.926	×0.860	×1.050	×1.050	6.77%
Triples /BIP	1.59%	÷0.980	×0.950	×1.050	×1.050	1.70%
Home runs /BIP	3.44%	÷1.014	×0.780	—	×1.050	2.78%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 110, 2B 85, 3B 96, K 94, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .306 → .277; ISO .147 → .127; BABIP .332 → .337. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAColumbus Clippers · 23 PAwOBA .468 → .412 (−56)K% 17.4% → 20.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.39%	÷1.036	×1.200	—	—	20.15%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	17.39%	÷0.930	×0.690	—	×1.050	13.55%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	0.00%
Singles /BIP	26.67%	÷0.941	×0.930	—	×1.050	27.68%
Doubles /BIP	13.33%	÷1.040	×0.830	—	×1.050	11.17%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.970	—	×1.050	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	6.67%	÷1.001	×0.700	—	×1.050	4.90%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 88, 2B 108, 3B 80, K 107, BB 86 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .468 → .412; ISO .263 → .208; BABIP .429 → .409. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Lake County Captains · 447 PAwOBA .342 → .270 (−72)K% 26.2% → 34.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.17%	÷1.026	×1.350	—	—	34.44%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.59%	÷1.017	×0.710	—	×1.042	4.07%
HBP% /PA	1.12%	—	×0.810	—	×1.042	0.94%
Singles /BIP	24.66%	÷1.041	×0.910	×1.011	×1.042	22.70%
Doubles /BIP	8.45%	÷0.941	×0.830	×1.011	×1.042	7.85%
Triples /BIP	0.68%	÷0.900	×0.820	×1.011	×1.042	0.65%
Home runs /BIP	5.41%	÷1.222	×0.830	—	×1.042	3.82%

Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 144, 1B 108, 2B 88, 3B 80, K 105, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.011.

Result: wOBA .342 → .270; ISO .186 → .135; BABIP .355 → .322. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 ROKAZL Indians Blue · 199 PAwOBA .341 → .232 (−109)K% 22.1% → 31.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.11%	÷1.000	×1.440	—	—	31.84%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	3.02%	÷1.000	×0.620	—	×1.022	1.91%
HBP% /PA	1.01%	—	×0.720	—	×1.022	0.74%
Singles /BIP	32.65%	÷1.000	×0.820	×0.950	×1.022	26.01%
Doubles /BIP	4.76%	÷1.000	×0.720	×0.950	×1.022	3.33%
Triples /BIP	4.08%	÷1.000	×0.720	×0.950	×1.022	2.85%
Home runs /BIP	0.68%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×1.022	0.54%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .341 → .232; ISO .115 → .073; BABIP .418 → .324. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jace Petersonlast yr '23 career totals — 10 seasons, 2,753 PA	4.1	2,753	42	77	228	318	337	+4	+5	5.3	6.0
/162	664	10	19	+1.0	+1.3	1.3	pk7: 7
#2Dave Roberts'72-'82 * career totals — 9 seasons, 2,189 PA	3.3	2,189	49	27	236*	284*	386*	+12	-13	2.9	4.1
/162	664	15	8	+3.8	-4.0	0.9	pk7: 5
#3Daniel Descalsolast yr '19 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,856 PA	4.3	2,856	48	25	235	320	363	+16	-36	3.5	4.0
/162	664	11	6	+3.8	-8.3	0.8	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	2.9	1,917	36	43	233	300	361	+7	-13	3.4	3.3
/162	664	12	15	+2.4	-4.3	1.2	pk7: 3
#4Carlos Sanchez'14-'22 * career totals — 6 seasons, 2,503 PA	3.8	2,503	32	30	248*	305*	353*	+8	+0	2.1	2.6
/162	664	8	8	+2.0	+0.0	0.6	pk7: 3
#5Jeff Branson'92-'01 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,720 PA	2.6	1,720	34	9	236*	291*	373*	+9	-3	0.8	1.8
/162	664	13	3	+3.4	-1.1	0.3	pk7: 3
#6Phil Linz'62-'68 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,518 PA	2.3	1,518	11	13	238*	301*	338*	+10	-0	0.7	0.7
/162	664	5	6	+4.3	-0.2	0.3	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
José Tena (OGILVIE)	26	50	45	55	50	230/302/364	134	310	6	8	28%	9%	90	+0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Hoy Park 2022 · MLB	26	49→52	45	50→55	53	238/325/366	128	303	12	15	24%	11%	98	+1.2	219/301/331	112	297	11	17	28%	10%	82	-0.0	212/296/310	98	291	10	19	28%	10%	72	-0.5
✕Jordan Danks 2013 · MLB	26	50	46→50	52→50	45	239/305/373	134	335	13	15	31%	8%	92	+0.7	234/298/359	125	328	14	11	31%	8%	86	+0.3	225/286/336	110	318	13	9	31%	7%	75	-0.4
✕Kyle Isbel 2023 · MLB	26	46→52	46→50	53→55	44	229/291/366	137	291	13	19	26%	7%	86	+0.3	235/288/369	134	285	12	14	21%	6%	84	+0.2	237/288/363	126	282	10	11	19%	6%	83	+0.1
✕Tug Hulett 2009 · MLB	26	49→55	45→50	52→50	49	240/309/366	126	304	11	14	24%	9%	92	+0.7	221/291/345	124	278	11	10	23%	9%	80	-0.1	210/284/326	116	262	9	9	22%	9%	72	-0.5
✕Brett Wisely 2024 · MLB	25	47→51	47→50	51→55	49	233/308/371	138	304	13	19	27%	9%	93	+0.8	232/297/351	119	295	11	15	24%	8%	84	+0.2	230/298/342	112	290	10	18	23%	8%	81	-0.0
✕Jake Alu 2023 · AAA	26	51→54	48→45	51→50	43	253/301/401	149	310	14	13	23%	6%	97	+1.1	235/288/339	104	286	9	17	20%	6%	77	-0.3	228/282/307	79	275	6	21	19%	6%	66	-0.7
✕Canaan Smith-Njigba 2024 · MLB	25	51	44→45	54→55	45	237/304/364	127	346	10	20	32%	9%	90	+0.6	217/289/329	112	322	9	17	32%	9%	76	-0.4	183/269/268	85	278	4	16	33%	10%	53	-1.1
✕Miles Mastrobuoni 2023 · MLB	27	52→57	43→45	53→60	47	253/307/366	114	314	10	16	22%	7%	91	+0.6	232/299/327	95	293	7	25	21%	9%	79	-0.2	223/299/300	77	280	4	30	20%	10%	71	-0.4
✕Josh Smith 2023 · MLB	25	49→53	44→45	52→50	51	236/327/361	125	295	11	17	23%	9%	98	+1.2	236/324/362	126	289	12	11	21%	9%	97	+1.1	240/326/364	124	289	12	10	20%	9%	98	+0.9
✕Thomas Milone 2022 · AAA	27	50→46	44→45	52→55	44	238/302/363	125	331	11	18	30%	8%	88	+0.5	221/288/337	116	334	10	15	34%	8%	78	-0.3	205/277/314	108	317	9	15	35%	8%	65	-1.0
✕Scott Cousins 2011 · MLB	26	48→51	47→50	55	42	241/284/387	147	299	13	16	24%	6%	87	+0.4	227/276/347	120	299	11	16	27%	6%	75	-0.5	213/264/309	96	289	8	20	28%	5%	60	-0.8
✕Nate Tenbrink 2013 · AA	26	46→53	49→50	55→50	45	227/300/381	154	308	15	16	30%	8%	93	+0.8	222/290/358	136	334	14	11	35%	8%	84	+0.1	215/286/348	133	323	14	10	35%	8%	76	-0.2
✕Anthony Prato 2024 · AAA	26	46→49	43→45	52→55	50	219/312/336	117	302	10	17	28%	10%	87	+0.4	217/318/318	101	289	7	19	25%	10%	86	+0.3	210/320/297	87	281	4	21	23%	10%	79	-0.1
✕Kaleb Cowart 2018 · MLB	26	49→53	45	52→50	44	238/292/367	129	309	12	18	26%	7%	86	+0.3	219/268/342	123	282	11	12	25%	6%	71	-0.8	202/248/320	118	261	9	9	26%	5%	56	-1.3
✕Daniel Johnson 2021 · AAA	26	50→51	49→55	51→55	41	247/297/407	160	316	16	14	27%	6%	97	+1.1	207/263/350	143	290	17	12	33%	6%	72	-0.7	216/268/363	146	263	17	21	25%	6%	75	-0.4
✕Matt Long 2013 · AAA	26	47→53	46→50	55	47	233/291/371	138	279	12	19	21%	7%	86	+0.3	217/273/335	118	284	11	18	26%	7%	72	-0.7	205/262/313	108	272	9	18	27%	7%	60	-1.3
✕Taylor Walls 2022 · MLB	26	45→54	45	49→60	52	220/306/347	127	296	11	19	28%	11%	86	+0.3	196/289/315	119	260	11	21	27%	11%	74	-0.6	197/285/302	105	256	9	33	25%	11%	69	-0.5
✕Ryan Boldt 2021 · AA	26	48→50	46→45	55	43	235/292/371	135	301	13	15	26%	6%	86	+0.3	218/271/339	121	319	12	15	34%	6%	72	-0.7	208/261/324	116	305	11	17	34%	5%	62	-0.8
✕Blake Perkins 2024 · MLB	27	45→51	47→50	53→55	50	224/305/365	142	297	14	18	28%	10%	91	+0.6	228/308/340	112	308	10	24	27%	10%	86	+0.3	219/304/316	97	297	8	30	27%	10%	79	-0.1
✕Bradley Zimmer 2021 · MLB	28	48→51	47→50	52→60	46	233/325/371	139	326	15	17	31%	9%	100	+1.3	210/304/326	116	328	13	22	37%	8%	82	+0.0	187/282/287	100	311	11	27	39%	8%	65	-0.6

José Tena

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps