Cade Cavalli

P Washington Nationals

Age 28 RHP 6'4" / 223 lbs MLB Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2030 peak 3.6 · 2027

Overview

MLBSP40-MANArb-1FA 2031

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	MIX2 levels	3	3	8	2.16	1.78	41.9%	16.1%	—	K 41.9% · BB 16.1% · FIP 1.60
2025	26	MIX4 levels	27	27	123	4.92	3.83	22.1%	8.2%	1.6	K 20.1% · BB 7.6% · FIP 4.11
2026	27	MLBWSH	32	32	170	3.02	2.97	28.3%	6.8%	4.1
2027PROJ	28	MLBWSH	28	28	165	3.64	3.59	27.4%	7.1%	2.6
2028PROJ95% MLB	29	MLBWSH	25	25	149	3.71	3.75	26.8%	7.3%	2.1
2029PROJ95% MLB	30	MLBWSH	23	23	140	3.86	3.96	26.1%	7.6%	1.6

Last 3 seasons WAR 5.7 · Next 3 projected WAR 6.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2030Service2.820First FA2031Options2Super-2

2027Arb-1$6M2028Arb-2$7M2029Arb-3$9M2030Arb-4$11M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

K%83

FB Velo82

xwOBA vs66

Whiff%63

CompsKodai Senga (age 30) · Jacob deGrom (age 28) · Jimmy Nelson (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9991vR 83

ERA3.64

FIP3.59

K%27.4%

BB%7.1%

K-BB%20.3%

Proj IP165

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 165 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$27M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL5555

CMD4545

K†6565

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p8296.8

Whiff%

p6327.4%

p8328.3%

xwOBA vs

p660.296

CH+1.3 (8%)

SI (12%)

CU (27%)

CT (6%)

SL-1.5 (14%)

FB-4.7 (46%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2

MLB Debut 2025

Service 2.820 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

OPT

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-1	$6M	+2.6	$21M	+$16M
2028	Arb-2	$7M	+2.1	$16M	+$10M
2029	Arb-3	$9M	+1.6	$11M	+$3M
2030	Arb-4	$11M	+1.1	$7M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$21M		$55M	+$29M

Options · projected decision
2027	CLUB OPT	$10.8M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2028	CLUB OPT	$4.0M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	24	123	522	175	60	5	100%	5.1	26.9%	12.6%	14.3%	1.1%	3.36	3.05	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	24	24	123	522	175	60	5	100%	5.1	33.5%	11.5%	22.0%	1.0%	3.36	2.25	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	101	424	110	41	3	100%	4.8	22.8%	10.2%	12.6%	0.8%	4.17	2.88	+2.6
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	21	101	424	110	41	3	100%	4.8	25.9%	9.7%	16.3%	0.7%	4.17	2.53	+3.1
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	3	3	8	31	13	5	0	100%	2.8	41.9%	16.1%	25.8%	0.0%	2.16	1.60	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	3	3	8	31	13	5	0	100%	2.8	41.9%	16.1%	25.8%	0.0%	2.16	1.60	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	3	3	8	31	13	5	0	100%	2.8	41.9%	16.1%	25.8%	0.0%	2.16	1.78	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	4 levels	27	27	123	539	119	44	15	100%	4.5	20.1%	7.6%	12.6%	3.2%	4.92	4.11	+1.1
2025	26	MIX MLE	4 levels	27	27	123	539	119	44	15	100%	4.5	20.1%	7.6%	12.6%	3.2%	4.92	4.11	+1.1
2025	26	MIX RAW	4 levels	27	27	123	539	119	44	15	100%	4.5	22.1%	8.2%	13.9%	2.8%	4.92	3.83	+1.6
2026	27	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	32	32	170	706	200	48	18	100%	5.3	28.3%	6.8%	21.5%	2.5%	3.02	2.97	+4.1
2026	27	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	32	32	170	706	200	48	18	100%	5.3	28.3%	6.8%	21.5%	2.5%	3.02	2.97	+4.1
2026	27	MLB RAW	Washington Nationals	32	32	170	706	200	48	18	100%	5.3	28.3%	6.8%	21.5%	2.5%	3.02	2.97	+4.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			43	43	223	948	246	65	25	100%	5.2	25.9%	6.9%	19.1%	2.6%	3.52	3.23	+4.6
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	WSH	28	28	165	697	191	49	19	100%	5.9	27.4%	7.1%	20.3%	2.8%	3.64	3.59	+2.6
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	WSH	26	26	157	664	178	49	19	100%	6.0	26.8%	7.3%	19.5%	2.9%	3.71	3.75	+2.2
2029	30	MLB MLE	WSH	25	25	148	624	163	48	20	100%	5.9	26.1%	7.6%	18.5%	3.1%	3.86	3.96	+1.7
2030	31	MLB MLE	WSH	23	23	138	582	147	46	20	100%	6.0	25.4%	8.0%	17.4%	3.4%	4.06	4.19	+1.2
2031	32	MLB MLE	WSH	21	21	128	538	132	45	19	100%	6.1	24.6%	8.4%	16.2%	3.6%	4.29	4.45	+0.7
2032	33	MLB MLE	WSH	20	20	117	494	117	44	19	100%	5.8	23.7%	8.8%	14.9%	3.9%	4.55	4.73	+0.2
2033	34	MLB MLE	WSH	18	18	106	450	103	42	19	100%	5.9	22.8%	9.3%	13.5%	4.2%	4.84	5.03	-0.2
2028	29	MLB CTX	WSH	25	25	149	629	169	46	18	100%	6.0	26.8%	7.3%	19.5%	2.9%	3.71	3.75	+2.1
2029	30	MLB CTX	WSH	23	23	140	591	154	45	19	100%	6.1	26.1%	7.6%	18.5%	3.1%	3.86	3.96	+1.6
2030	31	MLB CTX	WSH	22	22	131	553	140	44	19	100%	6.0	25.4%	8.0%	17.4%	3.4%	4.06	4.19	+1.1
2031	32	MLB CTX	WSH	20	20	121	511	125	43	18	100%	6.0	24.6%	8.4%	16.2%	3.6%	4.29	4.45	+0.6
2032	33	MLB CTX	WSH	18	18	111	469	111	41	18	100%	6.2	23.7%	8.8%	14.9%	3.9%	4.55	4.73	+0.2
2033	34	MLB CTX	WSH	16	16	96	405	92	38	17	100%	6.0	22.8%	9.3%	13.5%	4.2%	4.84	5.03	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		168	168	972	4112	1039	323	134	100%	5.8	25.3%	7.8%	17.4%	3.3%	4.01	3.75	+13.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	846	214	66	28	100%	5.8	25.3%	7.8%	17.4%	3.3%	4.01	3.75	+2.8
Career	—	MLE		107	107	525	2222	559	203	44	100%	4.9	25.2%	9.1%	16.0%	2.0%	3.75	3.23	+10.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		41	41	200	846	213	77	17	100%	4.9	25.2%	9.1%	16.0%	2.0%	3.75	3.23	+2.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Cade Cavalli (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.59	27.4%	7.1%	2.8%	—	3.96	26.1%	18.5%	443	+0.37	—	—	—
Kodai Senga R 2023 · 3.40 FIP	30	SP	3.40	29.1%	11.1%	2.5%	.274	4.52	23.4%	10.8%	186	+1.12	3.40	352	67
Jacob deGrom R 2016 · 3.22 FIP	28	SP	3.22	23.7%	6.0%	2.5%	.310	2.46	31.0%	25.4%	622	-0.76	0.74	1,692	66
Jimmy Nelson R 2017 · 2.76 FIP	28	SP	2.76	27.3%	6.5%	2.1%	.333	4.28	26.9%	12.3%	62	+1.52	1.32	720	66
Kenta Maeda R 2016 · 3.24 FIP	28	SP	3.24	25.0%	6.1%	2.7%	.275	3.48	27.0%	19.9%	413	+0.24	2.87	1,092	64
Matt Shoemaker R 2015 · 4.38 FIP	28	SP	4.38	20.4%	5.8%	4.1%	.280	3.74	21.8%	15.9%	269	-0.64	3.12	728	62
Frankie Montas R 2021 · 3.32 FIP	28	SP	3.32	26.6%	7.2%	2.8%	.291	3.94	23.0%	14.6%	295	+0.62	2.82	1,009	62
Brad Peacock R 2016 · 3.97 FIP	28	SP-	3.97	20.9%	8.7%	2.8%	.302	3.45	29.4%	20.4%	289	-0.52	2.97	748	60
Anthony DeSclafani R 2018 · 4.47 FIP	28	SP	4.47	22.3%	5.8%	4.6%	.290	3.95	22.6%	16.0%	368	-0.52	3.38	1,014	60
Joe Ross R 2021 · 3.95 FIP	28	SP	3.95	23.7%	6.5%	3.7%	.266	3.90	19.6%	10.7%	86	-0.05	3.19	812	59
Zack Godley R 2018 · 3.56 FIP	28	SP	3.56	23.4%	10.0%	2.1%	.315	5.07	17.6%	6.5%	219	+1.51	3.21	953	59
Josh Lowey R 2015 · 3.35 FIP	30	SP	3.35	21.1%	7.8%	1.9%	.311	2.30	26.7%	20.1%	231	-1.05	2.22	426	59
Yoshinobu Yamamoto R 2024 · 2.45 FIP	25	SP	2.45	28.5%	6.0%	1.8%	.303	2.98	27.5%	20.3%	359	+0.53	2.45	449	59
Dan Straily R 2017 · 4.48 FIP	28	SP	4.48	22.1%	7.3%	4.2%	.283	5.36	18.7%	10.3%	237	+0.88	3.50	1,134	59
Zack Wheeler R 2018 · 3.04 FIP	28	SP	3.04	24.1%	7.4%	1.9%	.274	2.75	25.3%	19.9%	480	-0.29	2.28	1,890	58
Kutter Crawford R 2024 · 4.53 FIP	28	SP	4.53	23.1%	6.7%	4.6%	.242	—	—	—	—	—	3.30	741	58
Brian Edgington R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	25	SP	3.99	19.5%	6.5%	3.1%	.321	5.28	19.3%	7.0%	58	+1.29	3.99	171	58
Merrill Kelly R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	30	SP	4.41	20.3%	6.8%	4.0%	.289	3.83	21.1%	14.8%	390	-0.58	3.60	1,170	57
Jeremy Hefner R 2013 · 4.33 FIP	27	SP	4.33	17.8%	5.9%	3.6%	.277	4.64	16.8%	7.7%	98	+0.31	3.56	322	55
Yu Darvish R 2014 · 2.70 FIP	27	SP	2.70	30.1%	7.9%	2.1%	.331	3.32	28.6%	21.1%	307	+0.62	1.97	1,798	55
Carlos Carrasco R 2015 · 2.67 FIP	28	SP	2.67	29.6%	5.6%	2.5%	.299	3.00	27.8%	22.6%	538	+0.33	2.26	1,827	55

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.9	131	25.6%	7.8%	1.24	3.97
James Paxton ('24)	4.8	95	25.3%	7.9%	1.05	3.77
Chris Archer ('22)	6.8	151	25.4%	8.3%	1.09	3.93
Danny Salazar ('19)	3.0	118	27.7%	8.6%	1.14	3.82
John Montefusco ('74-'86, 20 WAR*)	8.3	150	22.5%*	7.3%*	1.20*	4.16*
Sonny Siebert ('64-'75, 28 WAR*)	10.8	179	22.1%*	7.5%*	1.17*	3.86*
Cliff Melton ('37-'44, 18 WAR*)	7.3	182	23.4%*	7.2%*	1.13*	3.89*