Luis Patiño
P
San Antonio Missions
Age 26
RHP
6'1" / 192 lbs
AA
peak 0.5 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 56 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127118vR 109
ERA4.69
FIP4.79
K%21.9%
BB%11.7%
K-BB%10.2%
ROS IP56
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 56 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p5795.0
Whiff%
p2421.6%
K%
p2318.2%
xwOBA vs
p100.361
CH+1.0
SL-0.9
FB-2.2
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 17 | ROK | AZL Padres | 13 | 12 | 56 | 228 | 58 | 18 | 2 | 92% | 4.3 | 17.3% | 9.9% | 7.4% | 1.2% | 2.25 | 3.56 | — |
| 2017 | 17 | ROK | AZL Padres | 13 | 12 | 56 | 228 | 58 | 18 | 2 | 92% | 4.3 | 25.4% | 7.9% | 17.5% | 0.9% | 2.25 | 2.46 | — |
| 2018 | 18 | A | Fort Wayne TinCaps | 17 | 17 | 83 | 330 | 98 | 24 | 1 | 100% | 4.9 | 22.0% | 8.6% | 13.4% | 0.3% | 2.16 | 2.49 | — |
| 2018 | 18 | A | Fort Wayne TinCaps | 17 | 17 | 83 | 330 | 98 | 24 | 1 | 100% | 4.9 | 29.7% | 7.3% | 22.4% | 0.3% | 2.16 | 1.77 | — |
| 2019 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 19 | 95 | 392 | 123 | 38 | 4 | 95% | 4.7 | 24.4% | 11.0% | 13.4% | 1.8% | 2.57 | 3.39 | — |
| 2019 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 19 | 95 | 392 | 123 | 38 | 4 | 95% | 4.7 | 31.4% | 9.7% | 21.7% | 1.0% | 2.57 | 2.25 | — |
| 2020 | 20 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 11 | 1 | 17 | 85 | 21 | 14 | 3 | 9% | 1.6 | 24.7% | 16.5% | 8.2% | 3.8% | 5.19 | 5.18 | -0.1 |
| 2020 | 20 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 11 | 1 | 17 | 85 | 21 | 14 | 3 | 9% | 1.6 | 24.7% | 16.5% | 8.2% | 3.5% | 5.19 | 5.35 | -0.2 |
| 2021 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 22 | 107 | 455 | 115 | 38 | 14 | 85% | 4.1 | 24.2% | 8.5% | 15.7% | 3.2% | 3.97 | 3.90 | +1.9 |
| 2021 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 22 | 107 | 455 | 115 | 38 | 14 | 85% | 4.1 | 25.3% | 8.4% | 16.9% | 3.1% | 3.97 | 3.72 | +2.1 |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 17 | 17 | 57 | 256 | 51 | 25 | 12 | 100% | 3.4 | 16.8% | 10.6% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 5.68 | 5.85 | -0.9 |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 17 | 17 | 57 | 256 | 51 | 25 | 12 | 100% | 3.4 | 19.9% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 4.7% | 5.68 | 5.36 | -0.5 |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 41 | 12 | 81 | 380 | 68 | 56 | 16 | 29% | 2.0 | 16.3% | 15.3% | 1.0% | 3.6% | 5.98 | 5.66 | -0.6 |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 41 | 12 | 81 | 380 | 68 | 56 | 16 | 29% | 2.0 | 17.9% | 14.7% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 5.98 | 6.05 | -1.0 |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 9 | 9 | 27 | 116 | 27 | 13 | 2 | 100% | 3.0 | 19.7% | 11.3% | 8.4% | 1.7% | 2.63 | 3.80 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 9 | 9 | 27 | 116 | 27 | 13 | 2 | 100% | 3.0 | 23.3% | 11.2% | 12.1% | 1.7% | 2.63 | 3.50 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | SD | 9 | 9 | 56 | 238 | 52 | 28 | 7 | 100% | 6.3 | 21.9% | 11.7% | 10.2% | 3.1% | 4.69 | 4.79 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | SD | 9 | 9 | 56 | 234 | 51 | 28 | 7 | 100% | 6.2 | 21.9% | 11.8% | 10.1% | 3.1% | 4.77 | 4.83 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | SD | 9 | 9 | 54 | 227 | 49 | 27 | 7 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.7% | 11.9% | 9.8% | 3.2% | 4.86 | 4.91 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | SD | 9 | 9 | 51 | 217 | 46 | 26 | 7 | 100% | 5.7 | 21.1% | 12.1% | 9.0% | 3.4% | 4.99 | 5.07 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | SD | 4 | 4 | 21 | 89 | 19 | 10 | 3 | 100% | 5.2 | 21.9% | 11.8% | 10.1% | 3.1% | 4.77 | 4.83 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | SD | 5 | 5 | 32 | 135 | 29 | 16 | 4 | 100% | 6.4 | 21.7% | 11.9% | 9.8% | 3.2% | 4.86 | 4.91 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | SD | 6 | 6 | 36 | 152 | 32 | 18 | 5 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.1% | 12.1% | 9.0% | 3.4% | 4.99 | 5.07 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 60 | 38 | 226 | 992 | 205 | 112 | 36 | 63% | 3.8 | 20.7% | 11.3% | 9.4% | 3.7% | 4.97 | 4.79 | +1.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 53 | 34 | 200 | 879 | 182 | 99 | 32 | 63% | 3.8 | 20.7% | 11.3% | 9.4% | 3.7% | 4.97 | 4.79 | +1.4 | ||
| Career | — | 154 | 109 | 524 | 2242 | 467 | 245 | 58 | 71% | 3.4 | 20.8% | 10.9% | 9.9% | 2.6% | 3.71 | 4.13 | +7.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 59 | 42 | 200 | 856 | 178 | 93 | 22 | 71% | 3.4 | 20.8% | 10.9% | 9.9% | 2.6% | 3.71 | 4.13 | +3.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Luis Patiño (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.79 | 21.9% | 11.7% | 3.1% | — | 4.93 | 21.6% | 9.7% | 161 | +0.14 | — | — | — |
| Dawson Netz R 2025 · 4.42 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.42 | 23.3% | 10.7% | 3.5% | .225 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.42 | 102 | 82 |
| Mitch Neunborn R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.92 | 24.5% | 9.5% | 3.1% | .232 | 5.11 | 17.5% | 6.2% | 190 | +1.19 | 3.92 | 233 | 78 |
| Sean Mooney R 2024 · 4.82 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.82 | 24.7% | 13.5% | 3.8% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.45 | 102 | 77 |
| Cody Sedlock R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.83 | 19.9% | 10.9% | 3.7% | .301 | 4.18 | 20.1% | 7.1% | 80 | -0.65 | 4.16 | 378 | 76 |
| David Griffin R 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.94 | 16.6% | 9.8% | 3.7% | .285 | 6.04 | 14.5% | 4.2% | 81 | +1.10 | 4.52 | 239 | 75 |
| David Lebron R 2025 · 4.18 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.18 | 18.6% | 14.2% | 1.6% | .336 | 5.07 | 26.7% | 12.0% | 62 | +0.89 | 4.18 | 144 | 75 |
| Nick Pasquale R 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.73 | 16.8% | 12.7% | 2.6% | .306 | 3.97 | 17.9% | 6.3% | 50 | -0.76 | 3.16 | 308 | 75 |
| Jake Walters R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.17 | 17.0% | 9.4% | 2.4% | .316 | 5.97 | 15.5% | -0.2% | 72 | +1.80 | 3.46 | 261 | 75 |
| Brian Edgington R 2026 · 5.05 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.05 | 19.3% | 12.3% | 3.7% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 171 | 75 |
| Alejandro Martinez R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.24 | 17.5% | 10.9% | 2.3% | .393 | 4.44 | 9.2% | 3.9% | 53 | +0.20 | 4.24 | 166 | 74 |
| Burch Smith R 2027 · 3.94 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.94 | 19.5% | 12.6% | 1.6% | .234 | 4.41 | 22.2% | 10.5% | 192 | +0.47 | 3.39 | 382 | 74 |
| Antonio Guzman R 2027 · 3.60 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.60 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 1.2% | .328 | 3.63 | 20.6% | 11.3% | 170 | +0.03 | 3.22 | 254 | 72 |
| Bryce Conley R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.60 | 17.9% | 12.2% | 2.7% | .285 | 4.61 | 16.4% | 5.3% | 48 | +0.01 | 4.60 | 529 | 72 |
| Yariel Rodríguez R 2027 · 3.80 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.80 | 25.1% | 11.8% | 2.4% | .275 | 3.77 | 24.2% | 12.3% | 89 | -0.03 | 2.60 | 196 | 71 |
| Brandt Thompson R 2024 · 4.35 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.35 | 19.9% | 11.0% | 2.8% | .326 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.35 | 162 | 71 |
| Tony Dibrell R 2026 · 5.18 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.18 | 23.8% | 17.4% | 3.4% | .314 | 8.89 | 13.5% | -3.3% | 29 | +3.71 | 4.21 | 347 | 71 |
| Aaron Northcraft R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.16 | 16.1% | 8.3% | 2.5% | .309 | 3.28 | 24.1% | 13.4% | 34 | -0.88 | 3.28 | 252 | 70 |
| Luis Santos R 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.96 | 19.7% | 9.7% | 4.2% | .262 | 3.81 | 22.1% | 13.0% | 127 | -1.15 | 3.50 | 472 | 70 |
| Chase Centala R 2024 · 4.16 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.16 | 17.4% | 6.6% | 3.1% | .361 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.16 | 124 | 70 |
| Will Schomberg R 2024 · 3.84 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.84 | 23.3% | 11.6% | 2.2% | .272 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 206 | 70 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 54 | 21.7% | 11.9% | 1.23 | 4.82 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |