Luis Patiño — OGILVIE

Luis Patiño P San Antonio Missions

Age 26 RHP 6'1" / 192 lbs AA peak 0.5 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124116vR 108

ERA4.68

FIP4.77

K%21.8%

BB%11.3%

K-BB%10.4%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 5 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL4040

CMD4040

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5795.0

Whiff%

p2421.6%

p2318.2%

xwOBA vs

p100.361

CH+1.0

SL-0.9

FB-2.2

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2017	17	ROK MLE	AZL Padres	13	12	56	228	58	18	2	92%	4.3	17.3%	9.9%	7.4%	1.2%	2.25	3.56	—
2017	17	ROK RAW	AZL Padres	13	12	56	228	58	18	2	92%	4.3	25.4%	7.9%	17.5%	0.9%	2.25	2.46	—
2018	18	A MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	17	17	83	330	98	24	1	100%	4.9	22.0%	8.6%	13.4%	0.3%	2.16	2.52	—
2018	18	A RAW	Fort Wayne TinCaps	17	17	83	330	98	24	1	100%	4.9	29.7%	7.3%	22.4%	0.3%	2.16	1.77	—
2019	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	19	95	392	123	38	4	95%	4.7	24.4%	11.0%	13.4%	1.6%	2.57	3.28	—
2019	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	19	95	392	123	38	4	95%	4.7	31.4%	9.7%	21.7%	1.0%	2.57	2.25	—
2020	20	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	11	1	17	85	21	14	3	9%	1.6	24.7%	16.5%	8.2%	3.4%	5.19	4.99	-0.1
2020	20	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	11	1	17	85	21	14	3	9%	1.6	24.7%	16.5%	8.2%	3.5%	5.19	5.35	-0.2
2021	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	22	107	455	115	38	14	85%	4.1	24.2%	8.5%	15.7%	3.2%	3.97	3.87	+1.3
2021	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	22	107	455	115	38	14	85%	4.1	25.3%	8.4%	16.9%	3.1%	3.97	3.72	+1.5
2022	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	17	17	57	256	51	25	12	100%	3.4	16.8%	10.6%	6.3%	5.2%	5.68	5.85	-0.6
2022	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	17	17	57	256	51	25	12	100%	3.4	19.9%	9.8%	10.2%	4.7%	5.68	5.36	-0.3
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	12	81	380	68	56	16	29%	2.0	15.7%	13.6%	2.0%	4.0%	5.98	5.72	-1.1
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	12	81	380	68	56	16	29%	2.0	15.7%	13.6%	2.0%	4.0%	5.98	5.72	-1.1
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	12	81	380	68	56	16	29%	2.0	17.9%	14.7%	3.2%	4.2%	5.98	6.05	-1.4
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	9	27	116	27	13	2	100%	3.0	19.7%	11.3%	8.4%	1.6%	2.63	3.75	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	9	27	116	27	13	2	100%	3.0	19.7%	11.3%	8.4%	1.6%	2.63	3.75	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	9	9	27	116	27	13	2	100%	3.0	23.3%	11.2%	12.1%	1.7%	2.63	3.50	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			45	23	136	615	124	67	24	51%	3.0	20.2%	10.9%	9.3%	3.9%	5.02	5.04	-0.2
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	26	MLB	SD	1	1	5	21	5	2	1	100%	5.0	21.8%	11.3%	10.4%	3.1%	4.68	4.77	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	SD	9	9	56	234	51	27	7	100%	6.2	21.8%	11.4%	10.3%	3.1%	4.76	4.81	+0.1
2028	28	MLB MLE	SD	9	9	54	227	49	26	7	100%	6.0	21.6%	11.6%	10.0%	3.2%	4.84	4.89	+0.0
2027	27	MLB CTX	SD	4	4	21	89	19	10	3	100%	5.2	21.8%	11.4%	10.3%	3.1%	4.76	4.81	+0.0
2028	28	MLB CTX	SD	5	5	32	135	29	16	4	100%	6.4	21.6%	11.6%	10.0%	3.2%	4.84	4.89	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		54	32	189	838	172	93	31	59%	3.5	20.6%	11.1%	9.5%	3.7%	4.96	4.80	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		57	34	200	886	182	98	33	59%	3.5	20.6%	11.1%	9.5%	3.7%	4.96	4.80	+0.2
Career	—	MLE		154	109	524	2242	464	238	58	71%	3.4	20.7%	10.6%	10.1%	2.6%	3.71	4.11	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		59	42	200	856	177	91	22	71%	3.4	20.7%	10.6%	10.1%	2.6%	3.71	4.11	-0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luis Patiño (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.77	21.8%	11.3%	3.1%	—	4.85	21.7%	10.2%	109	+0.08	—	—	—
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	82
Ian Bedell R 2023 · 3.73 FIP	23	SP-	3.73	21.0%	10.1%	2.1%	.285	5.59	18.4%	8.7%	178	+1.86	3.73	274	78
Mitch Neunborn R 2023 · 3.65 FIP	26	SP-	3.65	24.5%	9.5%	2.6%	.232	5.15	17.6%	6.7%	202	+1.50	3.65	245	78
Sean Mooney R 2022 · 4.70 FIP	24	SP-	4.70	24.7%	13.5%	3.6%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	102	77
Colin Fields R 2023 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP-	3.62	20.5%	10.3%	1.7%	.246	3.86	22.0%	13.3%	208	+0.24	2.87	254	77
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	77
David Griffin R 2022 · 4.71 FIP	26	SP-	4.71	16.6%	9.8%	3.2%	.285	5.85	13.9%	4.7%	81	+1.14	4.43	239	76
Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2023 · 3.71 FIP	25	SP-	3.71	20.3%	8.7%	2.2%	.309	3.50	21.1%	13.0%	142	-0.21	1.87	251	76
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.32	22.2%	14.8%	121	+0.13	3.16	258	76
Cade Winquest R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.74	20.8%	10.5%	175	-0.63	3.11	252	75
David Lebron R 2019 · 4.28 FIP	25	SP-	4.28	18.6%	14.2%	1.7%	.336	5.56	26.7%	12.0%	62	+1.28	4.28	144	75
Paxton Schultz R 2023 · 4.90 FIP	25	SP-	4.90	19.1%	11.9%	3.5%	.319	4.05	22.7%	14.3%	222	-0.85	3.90	538	75
Cody Sedlock R 2021 · 5.05 FIP	26	SP-	5.05	19.9%	10.9%	4.1%	.301	4.21	20.1%	7.1%	80	-0.84	4.21	378	75
Alejandro Martinez R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	26	SP-	4.46	17.5%	10.9%	2.7%	.393	4.24	9.2%	3.9%	53	-0.22	4.24	166	75
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	75
Nick Pasquale R 2017 · 4.74 FIP	26	SP-	4.74	16.8%	12.7%	2.6%	.306	3.80	17.9%	6.3%	50	-0.94	3.19	308	75
Jake Walters R 2022 · 4.03 FIP	26	SP-	4.03	17.0%	9.4%	2.1%	.316	5.89	14.8%	0.9%	72	+1.86	3.51	261	75
Carson Rudd R 2023 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	21.0%	13.0%	4.7%	.274	4.61	17.5%	-0.1%	110	-0.92	3.39	242	74
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	74
Burch Smith R 2017 · 3.93 FIP	27	SP	3.93	19.5%	12.6%	1.6%	.234	4.43	22.2%	10.5%	192	+0.50	3.50	382	73

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	55	21.7%	11.5%	1.22	4.76
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58