Ivan Johnson — OGILVIE

Ivan Johnson2B Louisville Bats

Age 27 S/R 6'0" / 190 lbs AAA HR +6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

2026 ROS PROJECTION208 act + 138 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†93

AVG/OBP/SLG.218 / .298 / .356

PA138

HR4

SB5

K%32

BB%9

BABIP304

ISO137

MLB%30%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 35 / POW 50

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT35

scouting grade only

POWER50

scouting grade only

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED55

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2031	Arb-1	$0.4M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.3M
2032	Arb-2	$0.4M	—	—	—
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$6M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	22	A	3 teams	—	400	359	70	17	2	9	34	159	6	12	8	195	276	329	604	134	318	40	8	269	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	A	3 teams	—	400	344	90	23	2	16	49	130	6	12	8	262	363	480	843	218	372	32	12	372	143	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	197	184	37	8	3	3	9	84	4	4	1	201	254	326	580	125	351	43	5	253	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	197	180	47	12	3	4	13	66	4	4	1	261	325	428	753	167	391	34	7	335	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	386	348	63	15	1	11	21	144	11	20	2	181	250	325	575	144	263	37	5	251	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	386	334	75	19	1	14	35	103	11	20	2	225	318	413	732	189	275	27	9	323	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	AA	2 teams	—	440	394	78	19	4	9	36	165	8	15	5	198	279	335	614	137	311	38	8	272	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	AA	2 teams	—	440	379	97	28	6	13	51	132	8	15	5	256	356	464	821	208	356	30	12	362	135	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	202	181	33	5	0	7	21	75	0	10	2	182	267	326	593	144	263	37	10	262	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	202	172	38	6	0	7	30	59	0	10	2	221	337	378	715	157	292	29	15	326	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	27	AAA	CIN	—	208	184	47	7	0	8	18	59	3	11	2	255	332	424	756	168	331	28	9	322	105	+1	+1	+0	+1	+6	0.9
YTD	27	AAA	CIN	—	208	176	51	8	0	9	26	49	3	11	2	290	390	489	879	199	353	24	12	385	153	+12	+1	+0	+1	+6	2.1
ROS	27	AAA	CIN	30%	138	123	27	5	0	4	12	45	2	5	1	218	298	356	654	137	317	32	9	307	93	-1	+1	+0	+0	+4	0.4
ROS	27	MLB	CIN	30%	42	37	9	2	0	1	4	14	1	2	0	243	333	378	712	135	320	33	10	301	88	-1	+0	+0	+0	+1	0.1
FULL	27	AAA	CIN	—	250	221	56	9	0	9	22	73	4	13	2	253	332	416	748	163	336	29	9	318	102	+1	+2	+0	+1	+7	1.1
TOT	27	AAA	CIN	—	346	307	74	12	0	12	30	104	5	16	3	241	318	397	715	156	320	30	9	316	100	+0	+2	+0	+1	+10	1.3
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	28	MLB	CIN	48%	274	246	56	10	1	8	23	86	3	9	2	228	301	374	675	146	315	31	8	308	94	-2	+1	-1	+1	+8	0.7
2028	29	MLB	CIN	55%	308	274	63	12	1	9	27	95	4	10	2	230	308	380	688	150	312	31	9	307	93	-2	+1	-1	+1	+9	0.7
2029	30	MLB	CIN	59%	331	295	67	12	1	10	29	102	4	10	2	227	305	376	681	149	310	31	9	305	92	-3	+1	-2	+1	+9	0.7
2030	31	MLB	CIN	61%	324	289	65	12	1	9	28	100	4	8	2	225	302	367	669	142	307	31	9	301	89	-4	+1	-3	+1	+9	0.4
2031	32	MLB	CIN	62%	310	276	62	11	1	9	27	97	4	6	1	225	303	370	672	145	303	31	9	296	85	-5	+1	-4	+1	+9	0.2
2032	33	MLB	CIN	63%	284	255	55	10	1	7	24	90	3	5	1	216	291	345	636	129	299	32	8	289	79	-7	+1	-4	+1	+8	-0.1
2027	28	MLB	CIN	48%	132	118	27	5	0	4	11	41	2	5	1	229	305	373	678	144	318	31	8	302	89	-2	+1	-0	+0	+4	0.3
2028	29	MLB	CIN	55%	169	150	36	7	1	5	15	52	2	5	1	240	317	400	717	160	315	31	9	301	89	-2	+1	-1	+1	+5	0.3
2029	30	MLB	CIN	59%	195	174	41	8	1	6	17	60	2	6	1	236	311	397	707	161	313	31	9	299	87	-3	+1	-1	+1	+6	0.3
2030	31	MLB	CIN	61%	198	177	41	8	1	6	17	61	2	5	1	232	306	390	696	158	310	31	9	296	84	-3	+1	-2	+1	+6	0.2
2031	32	MLB	CIN	62%	194	173	39	7	1	5	17	61	2	4	1	225	302	364	666	139	306	31	9	290	80	-4	+0	-2	+1	+5	0.0
2032	33	MLB	CIN	63%	179	160	35	6	1	5	15	57	2	3	1	219	294	362	656	144	301	32	8	283	75	-5	+0	-3	+1	+5	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	1109	989	228	43	5	32	96	346	13	30	6	231	307	381	688	151	318	31	9	295	84	-20	+4	-9	+4	+31	1.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	580	134	25	3	19	56	203	8	18	4	231	308	383	691	152	318	31	9	295	84	-12	+2	-5	+2	+18	0.6
Career	—			—	3594	3224	676	136	16	95	291	1242	53	114	29	210	286	350	636	140	305	35	8	284	75	-100	+11	-15	+13	+102	1.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	583	123	25	3	17	53	225	10	21	5	211	288	352	640	141	308	35	8	284	75	-18	+2	-3	+2	+18	0.2

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	22	A+	Dayton Dragons	—	114	98	26	5	0	4	14	39	2	3	2	265	368	439	807	173	400	34	12	363	136	+5	-0	—	—	+3	0.8
2021	22	A	Daytona Tortugas	—	216	186	49	14	2	6	27	61	3	8	5	263	366	457	823	194	361	28	12	367	139	+9	-0	—	—	+6	1.5
2021	22	INTL	Surprise Saguaros	—	70	60	15	4	0	6	8	30	1	1	1	250	348	617	964	367	360	43	11	407	169	+5	-0	—	—	+2	0.7
2022	23	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	197	180	47	12	3	4	13	66	4	4	1	261	325	428	753	167	391	34	7	335	114	+3	+0	—	—	+6	0.9
2023	24	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	386	334	75	19	1	14	35	103	11	20	2	225	318	413	732	189	275	27	9	323	106	+2	+3	—	—	+11	1.7
2024	25	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	167	149	43	11	4	6	15	47	2	3	2	289	361	537	898	248	381	28	9	389	156	+10	-0	—	—	+5	1.5
2024	25	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	273	230	54	17	2	7	36	85	6	12	3	235	353	417	770	183	338	31	13	346	123	+7	+1	—	—	+8	1.6
2025	26	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	202	172	38	6	0	7	30	59	0	10	2	221	337	378	715	157	292	29	15	326	108	+2	+1	—	—	+6	0.9

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Ian Stewartlast yr '14 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,646 PA	6	1,646	60	17	230	317	416	+6	+2	6.2	6.2
	/162	664	24	7	230	317	416	+2.4	+0.9	2.5	pk7: 6
#2Chris Owingslast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,420 PA	9	2,420	35	78	239	286	365	+13	-0	3.7	4.5
	/162	664	10	21	239	286	365	+3.6	-0.1	1.0	pk7: 5
#3Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	6	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
	/162	664	13	9	241	304	367	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
#4Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	9	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
	/162	664	18	6	227	293	367	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#5Guillermo Heredialast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,530 PA	6	1,530	25	6	231	311	345	+3	+17	3.5	3.5
	/162	664	11	3	231	311	345	+1.2	+7.6	1.5	pk7: 3
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	4	1,130	32	30	226	299	370	+4	+4	2.1	2.1
	/162	664	19	17	226	299	370	+2.4	+2.4	1.2	pk7: 2
#6Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	6	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
	/162	664	16	13	232	299	363	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Ivan Johnson (OGILVIE)	27	35	50	55	60	241/318/397	156	320	12	16	30%	9%	100	+1.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Skye Bolt 2021 · AAA	27	42→39	47→50	49→50	42	208/271/344	135	299	14	12	34%	8%	69	-0.4	235/297/385	150	308	17	13	28%	7%	91	+1.1	238/304/382	144	312	16	12	28%	7%	89	+0.4
✕Blake Perkins 2023 · AAA	26	40→50	49→50	56→55	47	208/287/358	150	280	17	19	31%	9%	80	+0.4	234/312/365	131	316	13	21	28%	10%	92	+1.2	239/321/358	119	322	11	25	27%	10%	91	+0.6
✕Riley Unroe 2023 · AAA	27	46→48	45→50	54→55	49	228/299/352	124	289	12	20	25%	9%	83	+0.6	228/305/365	137	299	15	23	27%	10%	89	+1.0	227/311/367	139	295	15	26	27%	10%	89	+0.5
✕Kyle Datres 2023 · AA	27	41→40	50	56→55	43	212/287/361	149	289	18	23	32%	8%	82	+0.5	205/283/343	138	285	17	21	32%	8%	76	+0.0	187/271/314	127	259	16	21	33%	9%	61	-0.4
✕Brooks Conrad 2007 · AAA	27	40→44	52→55	54→50	43	210/268/384	174	264	18	14	28%	7%	79	+0.3	194/251/354	160	252	18	10	30%	7%	64	-0.8	225/298/436	211	291	27	7	32%	9%	102	+0.6
●Isiah Gilliam 2023 · AAA	27	46→49	49→60	54→55	39	218/281/372	155	343	16	18	39%	7%	81	+0.4	234/312/428	194	356	24	19	38%	9%	109	+2.4	233/322/453	220	341	30	22	38%	11%	116	+1.6
✕Michael Hollimon 2009 · MLB	27	41→47	50→55	52→50	44	210/276/372	161	283	16	11	31%	8%	79	+0.3	203/270/358	155	279	17	9	32%	8%	73	-0.1	185/257/338	153	239	18	7	30%	9%	59	-0.5
✕Taylor Walls 2023 · MLB	27	39→49	45	49→60	53	196/288/318	122	254	12	14	27%	11%	71	-0.3	200/289/318	118	261	11	26	26%	11%	71	-0.3	197/285/305	108	256	9	33	25%	11%	64	-0.4
✕Rylan Bannon 2023 · MLB	27	37→42	49→50	52→50	48	196/278/340	144	250	18	12	29%	9%	72	-0.2	207/297/365	158	271	19	13	29%	11%	87	+0.8	195/295/355	161	251	20	12	30%	12%	82	+0.4
✕Hoy Park 2023 · MLB	27	41→49	47→45	53→55	48	209/284/337	128	275	15	16	29%	9%	73	-0.1	224/308/335	111	306	11	17	28%	10%	82	+0.5	227/321/326	100	311	9	19	27%	11%	83	+0.4
✕Stuart Fairchild 2023 · MLB	27	44→42	52→50	50→55	42	223/298/390	167	299	20	13	31%	7%	94	+1.3	223/301/370	147	293	16	20	28%	8%	89	+1.0	220/316/365	145	284	15	26	26%	9%	92	+0.7
✕Jordan Danks 2014 · MLB	27	49	48→50	51→50	47	241/311/380	139	325	15	14	29%	9%	95	+1.4	229/288/344	115	324	13	9	31%	7%	76	+0.1	223/279/323	100	318	12	7	32%	7%	65	-0.6
✕Drew Robinson 2019 · MLB	27	45→40	52→55	47→50	44	222/293/394	172	328	19	11	36%	9%	92	+1.2	209/284/348	139	363	15	14	42%	9%	76	+0.1	162/249/275	112	309	12	16	47%	9%	43	-0.6
✕Drew Ellis 2023 · MLB	27	39→37	52→55	46→40	48	203/292/382	179	269	18	6	31%	10%	89	+1.0	195/284/360	165	248	20	6	29%	10%	81	+0.4	169/268/327	158	201	23	3	29%	11%	62	-0.4
✕Sean Bouchard 2023 · MLB	27	43→41	54→55	52→50	50	221/307/408	188	288	21	13	30%	10%	102	+1.8	208/299/363	155	294	17	15	32%	10%	87	+0.8	177/275/304	127	268	13	16	36%	10%	59	-0.5
✕Scott Kingery 2021 · MLB	27	45→51	50→55	51→55	43	229/285/393	164	294	17	13	28%	7%	89	+0.9	197/266/322	125	295	12	18	35%	8%	62	-0.9	198/239/341	143	265	19	17	33%	5%	52	-0.8
✕Michael Gigliotti 2023 · AA	27	41	47→40	57→55	48	204/301/338	134	290	15	26	32%	10%	82	+0.5	218/311/327	109	288	9	16	25%	10%	82	+0.5	212/323/302	89	272	5	13	21%	12%	80	+0.2
✕Jonathan Van Every 2007 · AAA	27	41→44	54→55	51→50	38	210/276/389	179	317	22	13	39%	7%	84	+0.6	232/297/412	180	360	21	9	39%	8%	98	+1.6	217/288/391	174	343	22	7	40%	8%	86	+0.5
✕Zack Short 2022 · MLB	27	36→38	50	47→45	50	192/289/343	151	253	19	7	31%	10%	79	+0.3	193/288/320	127	267	14	10	30%	11%	72	-0.2	180/282/293	113	252	12	11	31%	12%	61	-0.6
●Niko Goodrum 2019 · MLB	27	46→54	50→55	49→55	42	235/288/396	162	305	17	13	29%	7%	90	+1.0	237/307/404	167	327	17	17	31%	9%	100	+1.7	228/304/387	159	323	16	20	32%	9%	93	+0.7