Ivan Johnson2B
Louisville Bats
Age 27
S/R
6'0" / 190 lbs
AAA
HR +9%K -4%
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 0.3 · 2026
wRC+†80
AVG/OBP/SLG.197 / .274 / .341
PA214
HR6
SB6
K%36
BB%8
MLB%10%
Scouting · now → future
HIT
35→35
PWR
50→50
SPD
55→55
EYE
52↗60
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2028
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2028
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2033
First FA Year 2034
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.4M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.2 | $0.9M | +$0.0M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | — | — | — |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.2M | — | — | — |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.4M | — | — | — |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.6M | — | — | — |
| Totals | $2M | $-4M | -$5M | ||
Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.
Career Projections (MLE)
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | A | 3 teams | 400 | 359 | 71 | 17 | 2 | 10 | 34 | 160 | 6 | 12 | 8 | .198 | .278 | .340 | .618 | .142 | .321 | 40 | 8 | .271 | 66 | -15 | -1 | +0 | +1 | +11 | -0.4 |
| 2022 | 23 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | 197 | 184 | 36 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 85 | 4 | 4 | 1 | .196 | .249 | .315 | .564 | .120 | .344 | 43 | 5 | .252 | 51 | -11 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +6 | -0.4 |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | 386 | 347 | 65 | 16 | 1 | 12 | 22 | 141 | 11 | 20 | 2 | .187 | .258 | .343 | .601 | .156 | .266 | 37 | 6 | .257 | 55 | -20 | +3 | +0 | +1 | +11 | -0.4 |
| 2024 | 25 | AA | 2 teams | 440 | 395 | 80 | 21 | 5 | 10 | 35 | 166 | 8 | 15 | 5 | .203 | .281 | .357 | .638 | .154 | .317 | 38 | 8 | .276 | 70 | -15 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +12 | -0.0 |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA | Louisville Bats | 202 | 181 | 33 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 21 | 73 | 0 | 10 | 2 | .182 | .267 | .309 | .577 | .127 | .265 | 36 | 10 | .261 | 58 | -10 | +1 | +0 | +1 | +6 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | AAA | Louisville Bats | 37 | 33 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 1 | .212 | .297 | .394 | .691 | .182 | .250 | 30 | 8 | .333 | 113 | +1 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +1 | 0.2 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | CIN | 177 | 158 | 31 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 63 | 3 | 5 | 1 | .196 | .274 | .342 | .616 | .146 | .291 | 36 | 8 | .282 | 74 | -5 | +1 | +0 | +1 | +5 | 0.1 |
| TOT | 27 | MLB | CIN | 214 | 191 | 38 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 17 | 74 | 4 | 6 | 2 | .199 | .278 | .351 | .629 | .152 | .279 | 35 | 8 | .290 | 80 | -5 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +6 | 0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB 20% | CIN | 274 | 245 | 50 | 10 | 1 | 8 | 23 | 88 | 4 | 8 | 2 | .204 | .283 | .351 | .634 | .147 | .284 | 32 | 8 | .292 | 81 | -6 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +8 | 0.3 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB 33% | CIN | 308 | 275 | 57 | 11 | 1 | 9 | 26 | 98 | 4 | 8 | 2 | .207 | .285 | .353 | .638 | .145 | .284 | 32 | 8 | .292 | 82 | -6 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +9 | 0.3 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB 43% | CIN | 331 | 295 | 61 | 12 | 1 | 10 | 28 | 105 | 5 | 8 | 2 | .207 | .287 | .356 | .643 | .149 | .283 | 32 | 8 | .290 | 80 | -7 | +1 | -2 | +1 | +9 | 0.2 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB 52% | CIN | 324 | 289 | 59 | 12 | 1 | 9 | 28 | 103 | 4 | 6 | 1 | .204 | .283 | .346 | .630 | .142 | .282 | 32 | 9 | .287 | 78 | -8 | +1 | -3 | +1 | +9 | 0.0 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB 64% | CIN | 310 | 277 | 57 | 11 | 1 | 9 | 26 | 100 | 4 | 5 | 1 | .206 | .283 | .350 | .634 | .144 | .280 | 32 | 8 | .283 | 75 | -9 | +1 | -4 | +1 | +9 | -0.2 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB 73% | CIN | 284 | 254 | 51 | 10 | 1 | 8 | 24 | 94 | 4 | 4 | 0 | .201 | .280 | .343 | .623 | .142 | .279 | 33 | 8 | .277 | 70 | -10 | +1 | -4 | +1 | +8 | -0.4 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB 91% | CIN | 243 | 218 | 42 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 20 | 82 | 3 | 3 | 0 | .193 | .270 | .321 | .591 | .128 | .276 | 34 | 8 | .271 | 65 | -10 | +1 | -5 | +1 | +7 | -0.6 |
| ▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 3876 | 3477 | 693 | 148 | 18 | 105 | 310 | 1358 | 60 | 108 | 27 | .199 | .276 | .343 | .619 | .144 | .289 | 35 | 8 | .277 | 70 | -132 | +11 | -20 | +14 | +110 | -1.7 | ||
| / 162G | — | 650 | 583 | 117 | 25 | 3 | 18 | 52 | 228 | 10 | 18 | 5 | .201 | .278 | .346 | .624 | .146 | .291 | 35 | 8 | .277 | 70 | -22 | +2 | -3 | +2 | +18 | -0.3 | ||
Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)
Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | 114 | 98 | 26 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 39 | 2 | 3 | 2 | .265 | .368 | .439 | .807 | .173 | .400 | 34 | 12 | .363 | 136 | +5 | -0 | — | — | +3 | 0.8 |
| 2021 | 22 | A | Daytona Tortugas | 216 | 186 | 49 | 14 | 2 | 6 | 27 | 61 | 3 | 8 | 5 | .263 | .366 | .457 | .823 | .194 | .361 | 28 | 12 | .367 | 139 | +9 | -0 | — | — | +6 | 1.5 |
| 2021 | 22 | INTL | Surprise Saguaros | 70 | 60 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 8 | 30 | 1 | 1 | 1 | .250 | .348 | .617 | .964 | .367 | .360 | 43 | 11 | .407 | 169 | +5 | -0 | — | — | +2 | 0.7 |
| 2022 | 23 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | 197 | 180 | 47 | 12 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 66 | 4 | 4 | 1 | .261 | .325 | .428 | .753 | .167 | .391 | 34 | 7 | .335 | 114 | +3 | +0 | — | — | +6 | 0.9 |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | 386 | 334 | 75 | 19 | 1 | 14 | 35 | 103 | 11 | 20 | 2 | .225 | .318 | .413 | .732 | .189 | .275 | 27 | 9 | .323 | 106 | +2 | +3 | — | — | +11 | 1.7 |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA | Louisville Bats | 167 | 149 | 43 | 11 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 47 | 2 | 3 | 2 | .289 | .361 | .537 | .898 | .248 | .381 | 28 | 9 | .389 | 156 | +10 | -0 | — | — | +5 | 1.5 |
| 2024 | 25 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | 273 | 230 | 54 | 17 | 2 | 7 | 36 | 85 | 6 | 12 | 3 | .235 | .353 | .417 | .770 | .183 | .338 | 31 | 13 | .346 | 123 | +7 | +1 | — | — | +8 | 1.6 |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA | Louisville Bats | 202 | 172 | 38 | 6 | 0 | 7 | 30 | 59 | 0 | 10 | 2 | .221 | .337 | .378 | .715 | .157 | .292 | 29 | 15 | .326 | 108 | +2 | +1 | — | — | +6 | 0.9 |
Career Path Comps
What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Scouting | At Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Peak 3 Yrs | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | HIT | PWR | SPD | EYE | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR |
| Ivan Johnson (OGILVIE) | 27 | 35 | 50 | 55 | 60 | .197/.274/.341 | .144 | .293 | 6 | 6 | 36% | 8% | 72 | -0.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
|
✕Skye Bolt 2021 · AAA |
27 | 42→39 | 47→50 | 50 | 42 | .209/.273/.350 | .141 | .295 | 15 | 13 | 33% | 8% | 72 | -0.2 | .232/.296/.375 | .143 | .310 | 16 | 13 | 29% | 7% | 88 | +0.9 | .234/.302/.369 | .135 | .310 | 15 | 12 | 28% | 8% | 86 | +0.3 |
|
✕Willie MacIver 2023 · AAA |
26 | 38→35 | 48→45 | 50→55 | 39 | .196/.260/.330 | .134 | .279 | 17 | 14 | 35% | 7% | 62 | -0.9 | .216/.292/.346 | .130 | .312 | 13 | 16 | 33% | 8% | 79 | +0.3 | .230/.309/.359 | .129 | .323 | 13 | 18 | 30% | 8% | 87 | +0.4 |
|
✕Kyle Datres 2023 · AA |
27 | 42→43 | 50 | 55 | 44 | .216/.293/.366 | .150 | .294 | 18 | 23 | 32% | 8% | 85 | +0.7 | .212/.292/.349 | .137 | .297 | 17 | 21 | 32% | 9% | 80 | +0.4 | .195/.282/.319 | .124 | .275 | 16 | 21 | 33% | 9% | 66 | -0.3 |
|
✕Brooks Conrad 2007 · AAA |
27 | 40→44 | 51→55 | 54→50 | 43 | .210/.269/.383 | .173 | .265 | 18 | 14 | 28% | 7% | 79 | +0.3 | .194/.251/.355 | .161 | .252 | 18 | 10 | 30% | 7% | 64 | -0.8 | .223/.297/.436 | .213 | .288 | 28 | 7 | 32% | 9% | 101 | +0.6 |
|
✕Blake Perkins 2023 · AAA |
26 | 40→50 | 49→50 | 56→55 | 46 | .206/.285/.351 | .145 | .281 | 17 | 19 | 32% | 9% | 78 | +0.2 | .229/.308/.355 | .126 | .310 | 12 | 21 | 28% | 10% | 88 | +0.9 | .235/.317/.343 | .108 | .318 | 10 | 25 | 27% | 10% | 83 | +0.3 |
|
✕Isiah Gilliam 2023 · AAA |
27 | 45→46 | 50→55 | 53→55 | 39 | .218/.282/.376 | .158 | .341 | 17 | 19 | 39% | 8% | 82 | +0.5 | .225/.306/.403 | .178 | .352 | 22 | 19 | 39% | 10% | 100 | +1.7 | .217/.312/.406 | .189 | .334 | 25 | 22 | 39% | 11% | 100 | +0.9 |
|
✕Peyton Burdick 2023 · MLB |
26 | 36→33 | 52→55 | 50 | 44 | .192/.280/.359 | .167 | .275 | 20 | 12 | 36% | 9% | 79 | +0.3 | .185/.266/.345 | .160 | .294 | 20 | 12 | 41% | 8% | 69 | -0.4 | .162/.246/.317 | .156 | .267 | 21 | 12 | 45% | 8% | 51 | -1.1 |
|
✕Kevin Smith 2023 · MLB |
27 | 40→45 | 49→55 | 54→50 | 39 | .206/.260/.354 | .148 | .283 | 17 | 14 | 33% | 6% | 68 | -0.5 | .211/.255/.351 | .140 | .304 | 18 | 16 | 35% | 5% | 65 | -0.7 | .205/.244/.339 | .134 | .297 | 19 | 19 | 37% | 4% | 55 | -0.7 |
|
✕Andrés Alvarez 2023 · AA |
26 | 40→31 | 50→45 | 55→50 | 44 | .204/.281/.351 | .147 | .293 | 18 | 19 | 35% | 9% | 76 | +0.1 | .200/.265/.318 | .118 | .287 | 13 | 12 | 33% | 7% | 60 | -1.0 | .192/.253/.293 | .101 | .273 | 11 | 8 | 32% | 6% | 46 | -1.1 |
|
✕Michael Hollimon 2009 · MLB |
27 | 43→48 | 49→55 | 53→50 | 45 | .215/.282/.376 | .161 | .289 | 15 | 11 | 30% | 8% | 82 | +0.5 | .205/.272/.359 | .154 | .281 | 17 | 9 | 32% | 8% | 74 | -0.1 | .187/.258/.334 | .147 | .244 | 17 | 7 | 30% | 9% | 59 | -0.5 |
|
✕Drew Robinson 2019 · MLB |
27 | 43→41 | 51→55 | 48→50 | 44 | .215/.286/.381 | .166 | .317 | 18 | 12 | 36% | 9% | 85 | +0.7 | .207/.283/.342 | .135 | .361 | 14 | 14 | 42% | 9% | 74 | -0.1 | .154/.243/.252 | .099 | .307 | 11 | 16 | 49% | 10% | 36 | -0.8 |
|
✕Riley Unroe 2023 · AAA |
27 | 45→47 | 44→45 | 54→55 | 48 | .220/.290/.337 | .117 | .282 | 11 | 19 | 26% | 8% | 76 | +0.0 | .221/.300/.344 | .123 | .297 | 13 | 23 | 28% | 10% | 82 | +0.5 | .221/.306/.342 | .121 | .297 | 13 | 26 | 28% | 10% | 80 | +0.2 |
|
✕Kevin Padlo 2023 · MLB |
27 | 37→40 | 49→55 | 52→50 | 39 | .196/.252/.341 | .145 | .270 | 18 | 13 | 34% | 6% | 61 | -1.0 | .194/.271/.330 | .136 | .273 | 15 | 13 | 33% | 9% | 67 | -0.5 | .172/.266/.302 | .130 | .240 | 15 | 13 | 33% | 11% | 57 | -0.8 |
|
✕Brian O'Grady 2019 · AAA |
27 | 40→39 | 48→60 | 52→50 | 45 | .204/.276/.351 | .147 | .273 | 15 | 13 | 30% | 8% | 74 | -0.1 | .217/.278/.403 | .186 | .291 | 23 | 15 | 32% | 7% | 89 | +0.9 | .201/.267/.390 | .189 | .270 | 24 | 17 | 34% | 7% | 78 | +0.2 |
|
✕Narciso Crook 2022 · AAA |
27 | 43 | 49→55 | 50 | 39 | .215/.277/.364 | .150 | .307 | 16 | 12 | 34% | 6% | 78 | +0.2 | .214/.286/.373 | .159 | .324 | 19 | 15 | 38% | 7% | 84 | +0.6 | .200/.278/.359 | .159 | .312 | 19 | 17 | 39% | 7% | 73 | -0.1 |
|
✕Brett Cumberland 2022 · AAA |
27 | 39 | 46→50 | 47→30 | 42 | .192/.305/.315 | .124 | .293 | 14 | 5 | 36% | 8% | 80 | +0.4 | .209/.298/.328 | .119 | .308 | 14 | 6 | 34% | 7% | 79 | +0.3 | .208/.291/.302 | .095 | .300 | 13 | 0 | 32% | 7% | 64 | -0.2 |
|
✕Rylan Bannon 2023 · MLB |
27 | 36→45 | 49→50 | 52→50 | 48 | .195/.277/.338 | .143 | .247 | 18 | 12 | 29% | 9% | 72 | -0.2 | .202/.293/.353 | .151 | .264 | 18 | 13 | 29% | 10% | 82 | +0.5 | .189/.291/.340 | .151 | .244 | 19 | 12 | 30% | 12% | 76 | +0.1 |
|
✕Coco Montes 2023 · AAA |
26 | 41→45 | 48→50 | 50 | 40 | .208/.269/.350 | .142 | .293 | 15 | 10 | 33% | 7% | 70 | -0.3 | .222/.287/.357 | .135 | .316 | 14 | 10 | 32% | 7% | 79 | +0.3 | .221/.286/.344 | .123 | .313 | 13 | 9 | 32% | 7% | 73 | -0.1 |
|
✕Trent Giambrone 2021 · AAA |
27 | 38→41 | 51→50 | 51→55 | 41 | .207/.262/.365 | .158 | .267 | 20 | 19 | 31% | 6% | 72 | -0.2 | .180/.243/.272 | .092 | .261 | 9 | 14 | 33% | 7% | 39 | -2.5 | .150/.219/.214 | .064 | .220 | 5 | 14 | 32% | 7% | 12 | -2.0 |
|
✕Michael Gigliotti 2023 · AA |
27 | 42 | 46→40 | 57→55 | 48 | .206/.304/.336 | .130 | .293 | 14 | 25 | 32% | 10% | 82 | +0.5 | .214/.310/.321 | .107 | .288 | 9 | 17 | 26% | 10% | 81 | +0.4 | .206/.316/.294 | .088 | .270 | 5 | 13 | 23% | 12% | 76 | +0.0 |