Ivan Johnson

2B Louisville Bats
Age 28 S/R 6'0" / 190 lbs AAA HR +16%BB +6% Svc 0.250 · Ctrl thru 2032
Overview
AAAROOKIEPre-ArbFA 2033
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202425AAA/AACIN440.256/.356/.464131573—.202/.281/.348
202526AAACIN202.221/.337/.37871057—.177/.262/.287
202627AAACIN273.247/.356/.424111572—.211/.293/.339
202627MLBCIN19.062/.211/.06202-9-0.1
2027PROJ10% MLB28MLBCIN16.221/.301/.35801840.0
2028PROJ33% MLB29MLBCIN77.220/.299/.3542283-0.0
Last 3 seasons WAR -0.1  ·  Next 2 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2032Service0.250First FA2033
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Ext$0.8M2030Ext$0.7M2031Ext$1M2032Ext$2M
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AAA
Max EV74
BB%70
Speed57
Z-Con%33
Chase%32
K%30
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%
CompsKyle Datres (age 28) · Skye Bolt (age 28) · Riley Unroe (age 28)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†84
AVG/OBP/SLG.221 / .301 / .358
PA16
HR0
K%31
BB%6
BABIP308
ISO67
MLB%10%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -2.9 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-3BATRUN: +0.9 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+1RUNFLD: +0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: +0.6 runs (Positional adjustment)+1POSREP: +3.4 runs (Replacement-level credit)+3REPTotal WAR: +0.30+0.3WAR
0.00.51.00.00.027282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$1M ctrl surplus
Tools · ContractCON 35 / POW 50
Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2026
CONTACT35
xAVG
100.134
POWER50
Avg EV
1084.5
EYE60
scouting grade only
SPEED55
scouting grade only
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   Pre-Arb
MLB Debut   2026
Service   0.250 yrs.days
Team Control Through   2032
First FA Year   2033
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.0$0.1M+$0.0M (cut)
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M———
2029Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.0M $0.1M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202122 A+Dayton Dragons — 11498 26504 14392 32 265368439807 173400 3412 363 53 — — — — — —
202122 ADaytona Tortugas — 216186 491426 27613 85 263366457823 194361 2812 367 72 — — — — — —
202122 INTLSurprise Saguaros — 7060 15406 8301 11 250348617964 367360 4311 407 161 — — — — — —
202223 AAChattanooga Lookouts — 197180 471234 13664 41 261325428753 167391 347 335 62 — — — — — —
202324 AAChattanooga Lookouts — 386334 7519114 3510311 202 225318413732 189275 279 323 59 — — — — — —
202425 AAALouisville Bats — 167149 431146 15472 32 289361537898 248381 289 389 93 — — — — — —
202425 AAChattanooga Lookouts — 273230 541727 36856 123 235353417770 183338 3113 346 61 — — — — — —
202526 AAALouisville Bats — 202172 38607 30590 102 221337378715 157292 2915 326 57 — — — — — —
202627 MLBCincinnati Reds — 1916 1000 370 20 6221162273 111 3716 158 -9 -2 +0 +0 +1 +0 -0.1
202627 AAALouisville Bats — 273231 578011 34725 153 247356424780 177309 2612 348 72 — — — — — —
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career— — 1916 1000 370 20 6221162273 111 3716 158 -7 -2 +0 +0 +1 +0 -0.1
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202122 A+ MLEDayton Dragons — 114102 18303 10532 32 176263294557 118324 469 247 53 — — — — — —
202122 A MLEDaytona Tortugas — 216195 411125 18803 85 210287364651 154317 378 275 72 — — — — — —
202223 AA MLEChattanooga Lookouts — 197184 39933 9804 41 212264342606 130351 415 260 62 — — — — — —
202324 AA MLEChattanooga Lookouts — 386347 6617111 2213111 202 190261340601 150249 346 256 59 — — — — — —
202425 AAA MLELouisville Bats — 167154 36934 10562 32 234289409698 175345 346 305 93 — — — — — —
202425 AA MLEChattanooga Lookouts — 273241 441225 251036 123 183276311587 129285 389 258 61 — — — — — —
202526 AAA MLELouisville Bats — 202181 32505 21730 102 177262287550 110266 3610 252 57 — — — — — —
202627 MLB MLECincinnati Reds — 1916 1000 370 20 6221162273 111 3716 154 -9 -2 +0 +0 +1 +0 -0.1
202627 AAA MLELouisville Bats — 273242 51708 23865 153 211293339631 128281 328 275 72 — — — — — —
202122 A MLE3 teams — 400359 701729 341626 128 195276329604 134323 408 265 66 — — — — — —
202122 A RAW3 teams — 400344 9023216 491306 128 262363480843 218372 3212 372 66 — — — — — —
202223 AA MLEChattanooga Lookouts — 197184 39933 9804 41 212264342606 130356 415 260 62 — — — — — —
202223 AA RAWChattanooga Lookouts — 197180 471234 13664 41 261325428753 167391 347 335 62 — — — — — —
202324 AA MLEChattanooga Lookouts — 386347 6617111 2213111 202 190261340601 150262 346 256 59 — — — — — —
202324 AA RAWChattanooga Lookouts — 386334 7519114 3510311 202 225318413732 189275 279 323 59 — — — — — —
202425 AA MLE2 teams — 440395 812159 351608 155 205283352635 147316 368 276 73 — — — — — —
202425 AA RAW2 teams — 440379 9728613 511328 155 256356464821 208356 3012 362 73 — — — — — —
202526 AAA MLELouisville Bats — 202181 32505 21730 102 177262287550 110262 3610 252 57 — — — — — —
202526 AAA RAWLouisville Bats — 202172 38607 30590 102 221337378715 157292 2915 326 57 — — — — — —
202627 AAA MLE2 teams — 292258 52708 26935 173 202287322609 120278 329 267 67 — — — — — —
202627 AAA RAW2 teams — 292247 588011 37795 173 235346401747 166297 2713 335 67 — — — — — —
202122 A MLE3 teams — 400357 701729 341626 128 196276331606 134319 408 265 66 — — — — — —
202223 AA MLEChattanooga Lookouts — 197182 39933 9804 41 214264346610 132351 415 260 62 — — — — — —
202324 AA MLEChattanooga Lookouts — 386350 6617111 2213111 202 189261337598 149249 346 256 59 — — — — — —
202425 AA MLE2 teams — 440394 812159 351608 155 206283353636 147308 368 276 73 — — — — — —
202526 AAA MLELouisville Bats — 202179 32505 21730 102 179262291553 112266 3610 252 57 — — — — — —
202627 AAA MLE2 teams — 292259 52708 26935 173 201287320608 120270 329 267 67 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202425 AA MLE2 teams — 440394 812159 351608 155 206283353636 147308 368 276 73 — — — — — —
202526 AAA MLELouisville Bats — 202179 32505 21730 102 179262291553 112266 3610 252 57 — — — — — —
202627 AAA MLE2 teams — 292259 52708 26935 173 201287320608 120270 329 267 67 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202728 MLB MLECIN 10% 333296 651218 301064 123 219299350649 131306 329 293 84 -6 +1 +0 +1 +7 0.3
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202728 MLB CTXCIN 10% 1615 3100 150 10 221301358659 137308 316 297 84 -0 +0 +0 +0 +0 0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202829 MLB MLECIN 33% 236210 46816 21753 82 218297346644 129304 329 291 83 -5 +1 -1 +1 +5 0.1
202829 MLB CTXCIN 33% 7769 15302 7241 21 220299354654 134305 319 294 83 -2 +0 -0 +0 +2 -0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 9685 16302 10311 41 188281294575 106269 3210 267 68 -4 +0 -0 +1 +2 -0.1
/ 162G— A+C — 650576 10820014 682107 277 188282295577 108267 3210 267 68 -27 +3 -3 +9 +14 -0.5
Career— MLE — 23082072 416891355 18282339 9224 201278336614 135300 368 269 68 -10 +2 -1 +2 +9 0.2
/ 162G— MLE — 650584 11725415 5123211 267 200277334611 134300 368 269 68 -16 +3 -2 +4 +14 0.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAALouisville Bats · 273 PAwOBA .340 → .275 (−66)K% 26.4% → 31.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA26.37%÷1.000×1.200——31.65%
BB% (unintentional) /PA12.45%÷1.000×0.690—×0.9928.52%
HBP% /PA1.83%—×0.940—×0.9921.71%
Singles /BIP23.90%÷1.000×0.930×1.026×0.99222.63%
Doubles /BIP5.03%÷1.000×0.830×1.026×0.9924.25%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.970×1.026×0.9920.00%
Home runs /BIP6.92%÷1.000×0.700—×0.9924.80%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.026.

Result: wOBA .340 → .275; ISO .177 → .128; BABIP .309 → .281. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAALouisville Bats · 202 PAwOBA .318 → .252 (−66)K% 29.2% → 35.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA29.21%÷0.975×1.200——35.95%
BB% (unintentional) /PA14.85%÷1.002×0.690—×1.00310.26%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.940—×1.0030.00%
Singles /BIP22.12%÷1.049×0.930×1.049×1.00320.63%
Doubles /BIP5.31%÷0.992×0.830×1.049×1.0034.67%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.900×0.970×1.049×1.0030.00%
Home runs /BIP6.19%÷0.901×0.700—×1.0034.82%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 110, 2B 98, 3B 80, K 95, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.049.

Result: wOBA .318 → .252; ISO .157 → .121; BABIP .292 → .266. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 273 PAwOBA .339 → .258 (−81)K% 31.1% → 37.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA31.14%÷1.005×1.220——37.79%
BB% (unintentional) /PA13.19%÷0.970×0.680—×0.9889.14%
HBP% /PA2.20%—×0.840—×0.9881.82%
Singles /BIP19.31%÷0.964×0.920×0.992×0.98818.07%
Doubles /BIP11.72%÷1.236×0.910×0.992×0.9888.46%
Triples /BIP1.38%÷1.001×0.880×0.992×0.9881.19%
Home runs /BIP4.83%÷1.089×0.800—×0.9883.51%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 118, 1B 93, 2B 147, 3B 100, K 101, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.992.

Result: wOBA .339 → .258; ISO .183 → .130; BABIP .338 → .285. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAALouisville Bats · 167 PAwOBA .380 → .305 (−75)K% 28.1% → 33.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA28.14%÷0.999×1.200——33.82%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.98%÷1.032×0.690—×1.0186.11%
HBP% /PA1.20%—×0.940—×1.0181.15%
Singles /BIP21.57%÷0.995×0.930×1.006×1.01820.66%
Doubles /BIP10.78%÷0.964×0.830×1.006×1.0189.51%
Triples /BIP3.92%÷1.150×0.970×1.006×1.0183.39%
Home runs /BIP5.88%÷1.111×0.700—×1.0183.77%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 122, 1B 99, 2B 93, 3B 130, K 100, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.006.

Result: wOBA .380 → .305; ISO .248 → .182; BABIP .381 → .345. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 386 PAwOBA .319 → .256 (−62)K% 26.7% → 33.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA26.68%÷0.961×1.220——33.89%
BB% (unintentional) /PA9.07%÷1.069×0.680—×0.9985.76%
HBP% /PA2.85%—×0.840—×0.9982.39%
Singles /BIP17.75%÷0.986×0.920×0.999×0.99816.52%
Doubles /BIP8.23%÷1.004×0.910×0.999×0.9987.44%
Triples /BIP0.43%÷1.150×0.880×0.999×0.9980.33%
Home runs /BIP6.06%÷1.017×0.800—×0.9984.76%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 97, 2B 101, 3B 130, K 92, BB 114 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.

Result: wOBA .319 → .256; ISO .189 → .150; BABIP .275 → .249. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 197 PAwOBA .326 → .260 (−65)K% 33.5% → 40.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA33.50%÷1.010×1.220——40.47%
BB% (unintentional) /PA6.60%÷1.019×0.680—×1.0124.46%
HBP% /PA2.03%—×0.840—×1.0121.73%
Singles /BIP24.56%÷1.002×0.920×0.992×1.01222.63%
Doubles /BIP10.53%÷1.084×0.910×0.992×1.0128.87%
Triples /BIP2.63%÷0.912×0.880×0.992×1.0122.55%
Home runs /BIP3.51%÷0.990×0.800—×1.0122.87%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 100, 2B 117, 3B 82, K 102, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.992.

Result: wOBA .326 → .260; ISO .167 → .132; BABIP .391 → .351. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ADaytona Tortugas · 216 PAwOBA .357 → .275 (−82)K% 28.2% → 37.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA28.24%÷1.038×1.360——37.00%
BB% (unintentional) /PA12.50%÷1.009×0.690—×0.9908.46%
HBP% /PA1.39%—×0.780—×0.9901.07%
Singles /BIP21.60%÷1.003×0.920×1.004×0.99019.69%
Doubles /BIP11.20%÷1.003×0.830×1.004×0.9909.21%
Triples /BIP1.60%÷0.944×0.910×1.004×0.9901.53%
Home runs /BIP4.80%÷0.969×0.800—×0.9903.92%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 101, 2B 101, 3B 89, K 108, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.004.

Result: wOBA .357 → .275; ISO .194 → .149; BABIP .361 → .317. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Dayton Dragons · 114 PAwOBA .354 → .247 (−107)K% 34.2% → 46.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA34.21%÷0.986×1.350——46.84%
BB% (unintentional) /PA12.28%÷1.008×0.710—×0.9988.64%
HBP% /PA1.75%—×0.810—×0.9981.42%
Singles /BIP28.81%÷1.061×0.910×0.965×0.99823.82%
Doubles /BIP8.47%÷1.011×0.830×0.965×0.9986.70%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.900×0.820×0.965×0.9980.00%
Home runs /BIP6.78%÷0.960×0.830—×0.9985.85%

Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 112, 2B 102, 3B 80, K 97, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.965.

Result: wOBA .354 → .247; ISO .173 → .122; BABIP .400 → .324. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).