Justyn-Henry Malloy
RF Durham Bulls| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 24 | AAADET | 236 | .258/.408/.457 | 7 | 3 | 101 | — | .217/.335/.394 |
| 2024 | 24 | MLBDET | 230 | .203/.294/.366 | 8 | 1 | 90 | -0.7 | |
| 2025 | 25 | AAADET | 329 | .322/.457/.502 | 9 | 6 | 143 | — | .303/.408/.458 |
| 2025 | 25 | MLBDET | 127 | .221/.352/.308 | 1 | 0 | 96 | -0.3 | |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA/AA/A+TB | 309 | .204/.361/.392 | 12 | 9 | 71 | — | .175/.288/.324 |
| 2027PROJ10% MLB | 27 | MLBTB | 24 | .221/.325/.368 | 1 | 0 | 99 | 0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ38% MLB | 28 | MLBTB | 101 | .219/.323/.363 | 3 | 1 | 97 | 0.1 | |
| 2029PROJ49% MLB | 29 | MLBTB | 132 | .216/.320/.356 | 3 | 1 | 94 | 0.0 |
Tools · Splits · ContractCON 30 / POW 50
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 21 | A | Augusta GreenJackets | — | 147 | 122 | 33 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 24 | 30 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 270 | 390 | 434 | 825 | 164 | 318 | 20 | 16 | 370 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AAA | Gwinnett Stripers | — | 33 | 25 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 280 | 438 | 440 | 877 | 160 | 300 | 15 | 21 | 387 | 119 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AA | Mississippi Braves | — | 238 | 190 | 51 | 11 | 0 | 6 | 43 | 60 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 268 | 409 | 421 | 830 | 153 | 354 | 25 | 18 | 373 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ | Rome Braves | — | 320 | 263 | 80 | 16 | 0 | 10 | 47 | 73 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 304 | 417 | 479 | 896 | 175 | 376 | 23 | 15 | 394 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | INTL | Scottsdale Scorpions | — | 89 | 72 | 22 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 20 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 306 | 438 | 444 | 883 | 139 | 412 | 22 | 18 | 400 | 157 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 611 | 487 | 135 | 25 | 1 | 23 | 110 | 152 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 277 | 420 | 474 | 894 | 197 | 354 | 25 | 18 | 399 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | — | 230 | 202 | 41 | 7 | 1 | 8 | 23 | 85 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 203 | 294 | 366 | 660 | 163 | 297 | 37 | 10 | 296 | 90 | -3 | -0 | -4 | -5 | +5 | -0.7 |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 236 | 186 | 48 | 16 | 0 | 7 | 43 | 66 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 258 | 408 | 457 | 865 | 199 | 353 | 28 | 18 | 384 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | — | 127 | 104 | 23 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 32 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 221 | 352 | 308 | 660 | 87 | 301 | 25 | 16 | 307 | 96 | -1 | +0 | -0 | -5 | +3 | -0.3 |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 329 | 261 | 84 | 20 | 0 | 9 | 57 | 67 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 322 | 457 | 502 | 959 | 180 | 399 | 20 | 17 | 425 | 143 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA | Durham Bulls | — | 230 | 186 | 31 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 36 | 55 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 167 | 314 | 285 | 599 | 118 | 200 | 24 | 16 | 281 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 53 | 40 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 250 | 434 | 600 | 1.034 | 350 | 240 | 21 | 21 | 446 | 125 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | A+ | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 26 | 19 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 474 | 615 | 1.000 | 1.615 | 526 | 500 | 15 | 27 | 651 | 242 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 357 | 306 | 64 | 13 | 1 | 9 | 43 | 117 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 209 | 314 | 346 | 661 | 137 | 299 | 33 | 12 | 300 | 89 | -5 | -0 | -4 | -10 | +8 | -1.1 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 21 | A MLE | Augusta GreenJackets | — | 147 | 130 | 27 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 42 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 208 | 295 | 308 | 602 | 100 | 277 | 29 | 11 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AAA MLE | Gwinnett Stripers | — | 33 | 27 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 259 | 375 | 407 | 782 | 148 | 283 | 18 | 15 | 344 | 119 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AA MLE | Mississippi Braves | — | 238 | 202 | 50 | 11 | 0 | 5 | 31 | 73 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 248 | 353 | 376 | 729 | 129 | 343 | 31 | 13 | 326 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ MLE | Rome Braves | — | 320 | 283 | 72 | 13 | 0 | 10 | 27 | 99 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 254 | 328 | 406 | 734 | 152 | 326 | 31 | 8 | 314 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AAA MLE | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 611 | 518 | 122 | 18 | 1 | 19 | 79 | 183 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 236 | 348 | 384 | 732 | 149 | 320 | 30 | 13 | 326 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MLB MLE | Detroit Tigers | — | 230 | 202 | 41 | 7 | 1 | 8 | 23 | 85 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 203 | 294 | 366 | 660 | 163 | 297 | 37 | 10 | 302 | 90 | -3 | -0 | -4 | -5 | +5 | -0.7 |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA MLE | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 236 | 198 | 43 | 14 | 0 | 7 | 31 | 77 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 217 | 335 | 394 | 729 | 177 | 300 | 33 | 13 | 318 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MLB MLE | Detroit Tigers | — | 127 | 104 | 23 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 32 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 221 | 352 | 308 | 660 | 87 | 301 | 25 | 16 | 310 | 96 | -1 | +0 | -0 | -5 | +3 | -0.3 |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA MLE | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 329 | 277 | 84 | 19 | 0 | 8 | 41 | 75 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 303 | 408 | 458 | 866 | 155 | 379 | 23 | 12 | 379 | 143 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA MLE | Durham Bulls | — | 230 | 197 | 28 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 25 | 66 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 142 | 252 | 234 | 486 | 91 | 179 | 29 | 11 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AA MLE | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 53 | 44 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 205 | 340 | 455 | 794 | 250 | 210 | 25 | 13 | 353 | 125 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | A+ MLE | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 26 | 22 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 409 | 500 | 864 | 1.364 | 455 | 399 | 19 | 15 | 526 | 242 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A MLE | Augusta GreenJackets | — | 147 | 130 | 27 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 42 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 208 | 295 | 308 | 602 | 100 | 279 | 29 | 11 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A RAW | Augusta GreenJackets | — | 147 | 122 | 33 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 24 | 30 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 270 | 390 | 434 | 825 | 164 | 318 | 20 | 16 | 370 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ MLE | 4 teams | — | 680 | 590 | 147 | 28 | 0 | 18 | 73 | 205 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 249 | 339 | 388 | 727 | 139 | 342 | 30 | 11 | 321 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ RAW | 4 teams | — | 680 | 550 | 160 | 33 | 1 | 18 | 113 | 158 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 291 | 418 | 453 | 871 | 162 | 370 | 23 | 17 | 387 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AAA MLE | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 611 | 518 | 122 | 18 | 1 | 19 | 79 | 183 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 236 | 348 | 384 | 732 | 149 | 322 | 30 | 13 | 326 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AAA RAW | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 611 | 487 | 135 | 25 | 1 | 23 | 110 | 152 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 277 | 420 | 474 | 894 | 197 | 354 | 25 | 18 | 399 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 466 | 400 | 85 | 21 | 1 | 15 | 54 | 162 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 212 | 317 | 383 | 699 | 170 | 307 | 35 | 12 | 310 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 466 | 388 | 89 | 23 | 1 | 15 | 66 | 151 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 229 | 351 | 410 | 761 | 180 | 326 | 32 | 14 | 341 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 456 | 381 | 107 | 25 | 0 | 9 | 61 | 107 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 281 | 392 | 417 | 810 | 136 | 363 | 23 | 13 | 360 | 130 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 456 | 365 | 107 | 26 | 0 | 10 | 77 | 99 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 293 | 428 | 447 | 875 | 153 | 372 | 22 | 17 | 392 | 130 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 309 | 262 | 46 | 9 | 0 | 10 | 37 | 85 | 6 | 9 | 5 | 176 | 292 | 324 | 616 | 149 | 211 | 28 | 12 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA RAW | 3 teams | — | 309 | 245 | 50 | 10 | 0 | 12 | 54 | 70 | 6 | 9 | 5 | 204 | 361 | 392 | 752 | 188 | 228 | 23 | 17 | 341 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A MLE | Augusta GreenJackets | — | 147 | 130 | 27 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 42 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 208 | 295 | 308 | 602 | 100 | 277 | 29 | 11 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ MLE | 4 teams | — | 680 | 595 | 147 | 28 | 0 | 18 | 73 | 205 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 247 | 339 | 385 | 724 | 138 | 330 | 30 | 11 | 321 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AAA MLE | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 611 | 517 | 122 | 18 | 1 | 19 | 79 | 183 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 236 | 348 | 385 | 733 | 149 | 320 | 30 | 13 | 326 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 466 | 402 | 85 | 21 | 1 | 15 | 54 | 162 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 211 | 317 | 381 | 697 | 169 | 299 | 35 | 12 | 310 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 456 | 383 | 107 | 25 | 0 | 9 | 61 | 107 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 279 | 392 | 415 | 808 | 136 | 357 | 23 | 13 | 360 | 130 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 309 | 263 | 46 | 9 | 0 | 10 | 37 | 85 | 6 | 9 | 5 | 175 | 292 | 323 | 615 | 148 | 203 | 28 | 12 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 466 | 402 | 85 | 21 | 1 | 15 | 54 | 162 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 211 | 317 | 381 | 697 | 169 | 299 | 35 | 12 | 310 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 456 | 383 | 107 | 25 | 0 | 9 | 61 | 107 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 279 | 392 | 415 | 808 | 136 | 357 | 23 | 13 | 360 | 130 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 309 | 263 | 46 | 9 | 0 | 10 | 37 | 85 | 6 | 9 | 5 | 175 | 292 | 323 | 615 | 148 | 203 | 28 | 12 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB MLE | TB | 10% | 359 | 308 | 67 | 14 | 1 | 10 | 42 | 93 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 220 | 324 | 371 | 695 | 151 | 277 | 26 | 12 | 314 | 99 | -0 | +0 | +0 | -4 | +8 | 0.4 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB CTX | TB | 10% | 24 | 21 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 221 | 325 | 368 | 694 | 147 | 279 | 25 | 12 | 314 | 99 | -0 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +1 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 28 | MLB MLE | TB | 38% | 269 | 232 | 50 | 11 | 0 | 7 | 31 | 70 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 218 | 322 | 365 | 688 | 148 | 275 | 26 | 12 | 311 | 97 | -1 | +0 | -1 | -3 | +6 | 0.2 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB MLE | TB | 49% | 271 | 234 | 50 | 11 | 0 | 7 | 31 | 72 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 215 | 319 | 358 | 677 | 143 | 273 | 27 | 11 | 307 | 94 | -2 | +0 | -1 | -3 | +6 | -0.0 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB MLE | TB | 55% | 272 | 235 | 49 | 10 | 0 | 7 | 31 | 73 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 211 | 315 | 349 | 664 | 138 | 270 | 27 | 11 | 302 | 91 | -3 | +0 | -2 | -3 | +6 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB CTX | TB | 38% | 101 | 86 | 19 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 26 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 219 | 323 | 363 | 686 | 144 | 278 | 26 | 12 | 311 | 97 | -0 | +0 | -0 | -1 | +2 | 0.1 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB CTX | TB | 49% | 132 | 114 | 24 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 35 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 216 | 320 | 356 | 676 | 140 | 276 | 27 | 11 | 307 | 94 | -1 | +0 | -1 | -1 | +3 | 0.0 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB CTX | TB | 55% | 150 | 130 | 28 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 40 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 212 | 316 | 347 | 663 | 135 | 273 | 27 | 11 | 302 | 91 | -2 | +0 | -1 | -2 | +3 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 740 | 636 | 135 | 28 | 1 | 19 | 87 | 218 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 212 | 317 | 349 | 666 | 137 | 286 | 29 | 12 | 303 | 100 | -8 | +0 | -6 | -14 | +16 | -1.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 559 | 119 | 25 | 1 | 17 | 76 | 191 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 213 | 317 | 352 | 669 | 140 | 286 | 29 | 12 | 303 | 100 | -7 | +0 | -5 | -12 | +14 | -1.0 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3719 | 3186 | 728 | 147 | 2 | 102 | 441 | 1061 | 55 | 45 | 18 | 228 | 332 | 372 | 704 | 143 | 304 | 29 | 12 | 316 | 100 | -11 | +0 | -8 | -21 | +30 | -0.9 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 557 | 127 | 26 | 0 | 18 | 77 | 185 | 10 | 8 | 3 | 228 | 333 | 372 | 704 | 144 | 303 | 28 | 12 | 316 | 100 | -5 | +0 | -4 | -10 | +14 | -0.4 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAADurham Bulls · 230 PAwOBA .280 → .226 (−54)K% 23.9% → 28.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.91% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 28.70% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.65% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 10.99% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.74% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 1.66% |
| Singles /BIP | 14.50% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×0.982 | ×1.018 | 13.49% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.34% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.982 | ×1.018 | 4.43% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.982 | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.82% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 2.72% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.982.
Result: wOBA .280 → .226; ISO .118 → .091; BABIP .200 → .179. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 53 PAwOBA .435 → .353 (−82)K% 20.8% → 25.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.75% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 25.32% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 20.75% | ÷1.000 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.988 | 13.94% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.77% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.988 | 3.13% |
| Singles /BIP | 13.79% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.988 | 12.54% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.90% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.988 | 6.20% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 13.79% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 10.90% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .435 → .353; ISO .350 → .297; BABIP .240 → .210. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 A+Bowling Green Hot Rods · 26 PAwOBA .634 → .526 (−108)K% 15.4% → 20.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.38% | ÷1.000 | ×1.310 | — | — | 20.15% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 26.92% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.968 | 15.64% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 33.33% | ÷1.000 | ×0.870 | — | ×0.968 | 28.07% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.67% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.968 | 5.03% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 20.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.968 | 17.04% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 22.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .634 → .526; ISO .526 → .493; BABIP .500 → .399. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 329 PAwOBA .419 → .379 (−39)K% 20.4% → 22.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.36% | ÷1.073 | ×1.200 | — | — | 22.78% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.33% | ÷0.988 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 12.50% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.43% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 2.36% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.35% | ÷0.993 | ×0.930 | ×1.009 | ×1.033 | 27.66% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.31% | ÷0.953 | ×0.830 | ×1.009 | ×1.033 | 9.36% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.905 | ×0.970 | ×1.009 | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.64% | ÷0.872 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 3.85% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 74, 1B 99, 2B 91, 3B 81, K 115, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.009.
Result: wOBA .419 → .379; ISO .180 → .164; BABIP .399 → .379. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 236 PAwOBA .380 → .318 (−62)K% 28.0% → 32.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.97% | ÷1.022 | ×1.200 | — | — | 32.85% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 18.22% | ÷1.016 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 12.97% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.69% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 1.67% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.83% | ÷1.117 | ×0.930 | ×0.996 | ×1.048 | 18.11% |
| Doubles /BIP | 13.33% | ÷1.049 | ×0.830 | ×0.996 | ×1.048 | 11.01% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.070 | ×0.970 | ×0.996 | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.83% | ÷0.792 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.048 | 5.40% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 58, 1B 123, 2B 110, 3B 114, K 104, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.996.
Result: wOBA .380 → .318; ISO .199 → .181; BABIP .353 → .300. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 611 PAwOBA .391 → .326 (−64)K% 24.9% → 30.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.88% | ÷0.995 | ×1.200 | — | — | 30.00% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.84% | ÷1.006 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 12.85% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.64% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 1.62% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.67% | ÷0.965 | ×0.930 | ×0.958 | ×1.050 | 24.89% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.46% | ÷1.156 | ×0.830 | ×0.958 | ×1.050 | 5.39% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.30% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×0.958 | ×1.050 | 0.25% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.87% | ÷0.901 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 5.60% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 93, 2B 131, 3B 130, K 99, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.958.
Result: wOBA .391 → .326; ISO .197 → .158; BABIP .354 → .320. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+Rome Braves · 320 PAwOBA .391 → .314 (−77)K% 22.8% → 30.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.81% | ÷0.970 | ×1.310 | — | — | 30.82% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.69% | ÷1.052 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.012 | 8.48% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.25% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.012 | 0.97% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.42% | ÷0.956 | ×0.870 | ×0.972 | ×1.012 | 25.45% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.42% | ÷0.984 | ×0.780 | ×0.972 | ×1.012 | 6.57% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×0.972 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.26% | ÷0.928 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.012 | 5.05% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 91, 2B 97, 3B 130, K 94, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.972.
Result: wOBA .391 → .314; ISO .175 → .158; BABIP .376 → .326. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAMississippi Braves · 238 PAwOBA .369 → .326 (−43)K% 25.2% → 30.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.21% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 30.76% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 18.07% | ÷0.985 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.042 | 12.99% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.84% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.042 | 0.74% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.15% | ÷1.020 | ×0.920 | ×1.039 | ×1.042 | 25.55% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.46% | ÷1.032 | ×0.910 | ×1.039 | ×1.042 | 8.08% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.880 | ×1.039 | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.62% | ÷0.927 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.042 | 4.15% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 104, 2B 106, 3B 80, K 100, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.039.
Result: wOBA .369 → .326; ISO .153 → .143; BABIP .354 → .343. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).