Player 843821 — OGILVIE

Player 843821 P West Michigan Whitecaps

Age — —HP A+ peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 23 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINST108

ERA4.34

FIP4.34

K%23.2%

BB%9.3%

K-BB%14.0%

ROS IP24

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 23 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	—	A+ MLE	West Michigan Whitecaps	10	2	34	139	44	11	5	20%	3.4	23.1%	9.5%	13.6%	4.9%	3.74	5.02	—
YTD	—	A+ MLE	West Michigan Whitecaps	10	2	34	139	44	11	5	20%	3.4	23.1%	9.5%	13.6%	4.9%	3.74	5.02	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	—	ROK RAW	DET	4	0	11	46	19	4	3	0%	2.8	41.3%	8.7%	32.6%	6.5%	4.91	4.29	—
2026	—	A RAW	DET	2	0	6	26	4	4	1	0%	2.9	15.4%	15.4%	0.0%	3.8%	3.18	5.86	—
2026	—	A+ RAW	DET	4	2	17	67	21	3	1	50%	4.2	31.3%	4.5%	26.9%	1.5%	3.18	1.84	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	DET	32	0	33	141	33	13	4	0%	1.0	23.6%	9.0%	14.6%	3.0%	4.30	4.27	+0.1
2027	25	MLB CTX	DET	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	23.6%	9.0%	14.6%	3.0%	4.30	4.27	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		0	0	0	1	0	0	0	—	—	23.6%	9.0%	14.6%	3.0%	4.30	3.89	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	0	0	0	0%	1.1	23.6%	9.0%	14.6%	3.0%	4.30	3.89	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		10	2	34	139	32	13	7	20%	3.4	23.1%	9.5%	13.6%	4.9%	3.74	5.02	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		59	12	200	826	190	78	40	20%	3.4	23.1%	9.5%	13.6%	4.9%	3.74	5.02	+0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Player 843821 (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.34	23.2%	9.3%	3.0%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Ian Koenig R 2023 · 3.69 FIP	22	SU	3.69	20.0%	6.6%	2.6%	.310	5.39	15.1%	7.5%	284	+1.70	3.69	303	77
Dylan King R 2022 · 3.78 FIP	25	SW	3.78	26.7%	9.8%	3.1%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	3.78	121	76
Shohei Tomioka R 2021 · 4.00 FIP	25	SW	4.00	18.9%	9.0%	2.5%	.311	4.40	17.2%	4.0%	141	+0.40	3.65	299	76
Liam Simon R 2023 · 3.27 FIP	22	SW	3.27	26.6%	11.9%	1.6%	.362	5.97	19.7%	-6.0%	84	+2.70	3.27	105	76
Brad Deppermann R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	17.1%	9.6%	3.0%	.289	3.52	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.99	1.94	143	76
Tristan Stevens R 2023 · 4.14 FIP	25	SW	4.14	17.3%	8.2%	2.7%	.411	3.68	15.0%	7.7%	91	-0.46	3.68	126	74
Billy Corcoran R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SW	4.20	19.5%	10.0%	2.7%	.308	5.16	16.5%	8.7%	206	+0.96	4.20	275	74
Jake Lyons R 2023 · 4.13 FIP	24	SW	4.13	20.1%	8.5%	3.0%	.337	—	—	—	—	—	4.13	174	74
Kyle Bischoff R 2023 · 5.26 FIP	24	SU	5.26	23.6%	11.8%	4.8%	.240	3.86	21.7%	8.5%	139	-1.40	3.21	161	74
Noah Bremer R 2021 · 4.39 FIP	25	SW	4.39	18.0%	9.4%	2.9%	.292	5.82	13.1%	1.2%	46	+1.43	3.19	271	73
Derek Gordon R 2016 · 4.62 FIP	25	SW	4.62	19.9%	9.3%	3.7%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	4.62	146	73
Brendan Collins R 2022 · 3.67 FIP	22	SW	3.67	21.8%	10.3%	2.0%	.294	3.86	20.2%	5.1%	54	+0.19	3.67	122	73
Coleman Huntley III R 2021 · 3.85 FIP	28	SW	3.85	20.2%	7.4%	2.8%	.348	3.56	23.4%	13.2%	86	-0.29	2.38	160	73
Michael King R 2020 · 4.56 FIP	25	SW	4.56	21.5%	9.1%	3.9%	.316	2.74	28.3%	20.8%	219	-1.82	1.97	1,014	72
Ryan Tapani R 2019 · 3.86 FIP	25	SW	3.86	19.0%	7.3%	2.6%	.331	5.56	20.8%	10.6%	47	+1.70	3.86	141	72
Casey Cobb R 2021 · 3.48 FIP	25	SU	3.48	21.8%	6.2%	2.6%	.261	5.59	17.2%	8.3%	118	+2.11	3.48	191	72
Danny Hrbek R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	24	SU	3.98	21.3%	7.5%	3.1%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.98	100	71
Joshua Loeschorn R 2023 · 3.86 FIP	23	SU	3.86	24.5%	7.7%	3.4%	.272	4.43	17.1%	8.4%	83	+0.57	3.08	151	71
Nick Merkel R 2023 · 3.99 FIP	25	SU	3.99	22.8%	7.1%	3.5%	.284	3.44	20.7%	10.3%	129	-0.55	3.15	205	71
Jake Christianson R 2023 · 4.00 FIP	23	SW	4.00	17.9%	10.1%	2.1%	.309	4.72	16.4%	6.1%	105	+0.72	4.00	188	70

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	28	23.5%	9.1%	1.16	4.32
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Colin Poche ('24)	1.0	52	27.0%	9.2%	1.34	3.63
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.2	47	24.3%	7.8%	1.50	4.47
Trevor Gott ('23)	1.0	51	22.0%	7.4%	0.79	3.97
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84