Ian Koenig

P San Antonio Missions

Age 26 RHP 6'2" / 225 lbs AA peak 0.5 · 2028

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	MIX2 levels	16	15	47	4.98	3.89	24.4%	7.1%	—	K 18.7% · BB 7.1% · FIP 5.30
2025	24	A+SD	21	21	103	5.40	4.85	16.0%	7.7%	—	K 12.3% · BB 8.8% · FIP 5.97
2026	25	MIX2 levels	29	29	148	4.19	4.18	19.4%	6.1%	—	K 15.9% · BB 6.6% · FIP 4.91
2027PROJ	26	MLBSD	1	1	2	5.45	5.45	13.2%	8.5%	-0.0
2028PROJ38% MLB	27	MLBSD	6	6	38	5.35	5.36	14.1%	8.5%	0.0
2029PROJ60% MLB	28	MLBSD	9	9	52	5.33	5.36	14.6%	8.6%	0.0

Next 3 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff30Control50Command35

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 0.3, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsNestor Molina (age 27) · Josh Banks (age 26) · Enrique Gonzalez (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 137129vR 120

ERA5.45

FIP5.45

K%13.2%

BB%8.5%

K-BB%4.7%

Proj IP90

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL5050

CMD3535

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	21	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	0%	1.0	33.3%	0.0%	33.3%	0.0%	0.00	0.29	—
2022	21	ROK RAW	ACL Padres	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	0%	1.0	33.3%	0.0%	33.3%	0.0%	0.00	1.10	—
2023	22	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	6	0	19	89	24	5	2	0%	3.2	20.0%	6.6%	13.3%	2.6%	4.19	3.69	—
2023	22	A RAW	Lake Elsinore Storm	6	0	19	89	24	5	2	0%	3.2	27.0%	5.6%	21.3%	2.2%	4.19	2.74	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	15	47	197	48	14	7	94%	2.9	18.7%	7.1%	11.6%	5.2%	4.98	5.30	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	15	47	197	48	14	7	94%	2.9	18.7%	7.1%	11.6%	5.2%	4.98	5.30	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	15	47	197	48	14	7	94%	2.9	24.4%	7.1%	17.3%	3.6%	4.98	3.89	—
2025	24	A+ MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	21	21	103	444	71	34	17	100%	4.9	12.3%	8.8%	3.5%	5.1%	5.40	5.97	—
2025	24	A+ MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	21	21	103	444	71	34	17	100%	4.9	12.3%	8.8%	3.5%	5.1%	5.40	5.97	—
2025	24	A+ RAW	Fort Wayne TinCaps	21	21	103	444	71	34	17	100%	4.9	16.0%	7.7%	8.3%	3.8%	5.40	4.85	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	29	148	620	120	38	22	100%	5.1	15.9%	6.6%	9.3%	4.2%	4.19	4.91	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	29	148	620	120	38	22	100%	5.1	15.9%	6.6%	9.3%	4.2%	4.19	4.91	—
2026	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	29	148	620	120	38	22	100%	5.1	19.4%	6.1%	13.2%	3.5%	4.19	4.18	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	SD	1	1	2	8	1	1	0	100%	2.0	13.2%	8.5%	4.7%	3.7%	5.45	5.45	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	SD	17	17	101	426	60	36	15	100%	5.9	14.1%	8.5%	5.6%	3.6%	5.35	5.36	+0.0
2029	28	MLB MLE	SD	15	15	87	369	54	32	14	100%	5.8	14.6%	8.6%	6.0%	3.7%	5.33	5.36	+0.0
2030	29	MLB MLE	SD	13	13	79	334	49	29	13	100%	6.1	14.7%	8.8%	5.9%	3.8%	5.37	5.44	-0.0
2031	30	MLB MLE	SD	12	12	71	301	44	27	12	100%	5.9	14.5%	9.0%	5.5%	4.0%	5.49	5.59	-0.2
2028	27	MLB CTX	SD	6	6	38	160	23	14	6	100%	6.3	14.1%	8.5%	5.6%	3.6%	5.35	5.36	+0.0
2029	28	MLB CTX	SD	9	9	52	220	32	19	8	100%	5.8	14.6%	8.6%	6.0%	3.7%	5.33	5.36	+0.0
2030	29	MLB CTX	SD	9	9	56	236	35	21	9	100%	6.2	14.7%	8.8%	5.9%	3.8%	5.37	5.44	-0.0
2031	30	MLB CTX	SD	9	9	56	236	34	21	9	100%	6.2	14.5%	9.0%	5.5%	4.0%	5.49	5.59	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		34	34	202	852	123	74	32	100%	5.9	14.5%	8.7%	5.7%	3.8%	5.39	5.07	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	122	73	32	100%	6.0	14.5%	8.7%	5.7%	3.8%	5.39	5.07	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		73	65	319	1353	209	100	61	89%	4.4	15.4%	7.4%	8.0%	4.5%	4.68	5.23	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		46	41	200	848	131	63	39	89%	4.4	15.4%	7.4%	8.0%	4.5%	4.68	5.23	-0.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AASan Antonio Missions · 121 IPFIP 4.43 → 5.24 (+0.81)K% 18.9% → 15.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.92%	—	×0.810	15.32%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.37%	—	×1.100	7.01%
HR / BF /BF	3.86%	÷1.000	×1.200	4.63%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.43 → 5.24, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 27 IPFIP 2.98 → 3.28 (+0.30)K% 21.6% → 18.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.57%	—	×0.860	18.55%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.90%	—	×0.900	4.41%
HR / BF /BF	1.96%	÷1.000	×1.100	2.16%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.98 → 3.28, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Fort Wayne TinCaps · 103 IPFIP 4.82 → 5.97 (+1.15)K% 16.0% → 12.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.99%	—	×0.770	12.31%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.66%	—	×1.150	8.81%
HR / BF /BF	3.83%	÷0.941	×1.250	5.09%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 88).

Result: FIP 4.82 → 5.97, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ALake Elsinore Storm · 43 IPFIP 3.84 → 5.30 (+1.46)K% 25.3% → 18.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.27%	—	×0.740	18.70%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.04%	—	×1.180	7.13%
HR / BF /BF	3.85%	÷0.953	×1.300	5.25%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 91).

Result: FIP 3.84 → 5.30, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ALake Elsinore Storm · 19 IPFIP 2.77 → 3.69 (+0.92)K% 27.0% → 20.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.97%	—	×0.740	19.96%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.62%	—	×1.180	6.63%
HR / BF /BF	2.25%	÷1.121	×1.300	2.61%

Result: FIP 2.77 → 3.69, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ian Koenig (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.45	13.2%	8.5%	3.7%	—	5.38	14.4%	5.8%	267	-0.07	—	—	—
Nestor Molina R 2016 · 4.83 FIP	27	SP	4.83	15.0%	8.0%	3.6%	.304	3.61	17.0%	10.2%	289	-1.22	3.01	401	88
Josh Banks R 2008 · 4.81 FIP	26	SP-	4.81	11.6%	7.3%	3.2%	.283	6.01	9.0%	6.0%	23	+1.20	4.81	108	88
Enrique Gonzalez R 2006 · 4.49 FIP	24	SP-	4.49	14.3%	7.4%	3.0%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	4.49	132	85
Andrew Quezada R 2023 · 5.33 FIP	26	SP-	5.33	14.4%	9.5%	4.1%	.344	4.90	12.7%	5.3%	173	-0.43	4.40	412	85
J.D. Martin R 2009 · 5.18 FIP	26	SP	5.18	10.9%	5.9%	4.1%	.263	4.79	14.6%	9.9%	48	-0.39	4.79	414	83
Andres Ivan Meza R 2015 · 4.45 FIP	28	SP	4.45	10.9%	5.6%	2.9%	.322	4.14	12.5%	4.0%	85	-0.31	4.14	275	83
Caleb Clay R 2015 · 4.67 FIP	27	SP	4.67	9.9%	6.9%	2.8%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.67	111	82
Jordan Cooper R 2015 · 5.01 FIP	26	SP	5.01	9.2%	10.2%	2.5%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	5.01	106	82
Luke Irvine R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	13.4%	9.8%	2.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	104	82
Hector Velázquez R 2015 · 4.31 FIP	26	SP	4.31	15.0%	8.7%	2.5%	.297	3.35	18.1%	12.8%	343	-0.96	2.75	536	82
Brannon Easterling R 2017 · 4.40 FIP	26	SP-	4.40	12.7%	8.2%	2.4%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	334	81
Travis Smith R 2002 · 5.28 FIP	29	SP	5.28	13.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.324	5.71	15.0%	9.0%	51	+0.43	3.67	105	81
Grahamm Wiest R 2015 · 5.13 FIP	23	SP-	5.13	11.1%	7.8%	3.6%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	5.13	120	80
Gabriel Arias R 2015 · 4.42 FIP	25	SP	4.42	13.1%	7.2%	2.8%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	195	80
Ryan Hawks R 2024 · 5.26 FIP	23	SP	5.26	13.6%	7.3%	4.4%	.303	5.12	13.6%	4.3%	221	-0.14	4.78	342	80
Drew Rucinski R 2015 · 5.52 FIP	26	SP	5.52	15.0%	9.1%	4.6%	.336	3.58	16.8%	10.9%	278	-1.94	2.69	409	80
Wes Obermueller R 2003 · 4.93 FIP	26	SP	4.93	11.2%	7.6%	3.3%	.301	4.77	11.1%	2.0%	183	-0.16	4.72	308	80
Braden Olthoff R 2022 · 4.50 FIP	23	SP-	4.50	12.5%	8.0%	2.6%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.50	108	80
Chance Kirby R 2021 · 5.83 FIP	26	SP-	5.83	15.1%	10.0%	5.0%	.242	4.59	18.5%	11.2%	138	-1.24	4.14	325	79
Thomas Farr R 2024 · 5.38 FIP	25	SP	5.38	12.6%	9.3%	4.0%	.295	5.61	10.6%	1.2%	83	+0.23	5.05	423	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.1	86	14.2%	8.7%	1.45	5.39
Jason Berken ('12)	1.2	83	14.3%	8.0%	1.41	5.36
Rocky Biddle ('04)	1.9	76	15.3%	9.9%	1.40	5.47
Doug Linton ('03)	1.5	51	14.9%	9.0%	1.47	5.78
Bob Priddy ('62-'71, -1 WAR*)	2.7	77	16.3%*	9.0%*	1.43*	4.80*
Steve Shields ('85-'89, -3 WAR*)	1.1	55	17.0%*	9.0%*	1.61*	5.49*
Chuck Hartenstein ('66-'77, -1 WAR*)	1.5	59	13.7%*	7.2%*	1.50*	5.28*