Ian Koenig — OGILVIE

Ian Koenig P San Antonio Missions

Age 25 RHP 6'2" / 225 lbs AA peak 0.5 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION137 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 142134vR 126

ERA5.75

FIP5.75

K%11.4%

BB%9.8%

K-BB%1.6%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 144 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL5050

CMD3535

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	21	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	0%	1.0	33.3%	0.0%	33.3%	0.0%	0.00	0.29	—
2022	21	ROK RAW	ACL Padres	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	0%	1.0	33.3%	0.0%	33.3%	0.0%	0.00	1.10	—
2023	22	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	6	0	19	89	24	5	2	0%	3.2	20.0%	6.6%	13.3%	2.6%	4.19	3.69	—
2023	22	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	6	0	19	89	24	5	2	0%	3.2	20.0%	6.6%	13.3%	2.6%	4.19	3.69	—
2023	22	A RAW	Lake Elsinore Storm	6	0	19	89	24	5	2	0%	3.2	27.0%	5.6%	21.3%	2.2%	4.19	2.74	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	15	47	197	48	14	7	94%	2.9	18.7%	7.1%	11.6%	5.2%	4.98	5.30	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	15	47	197	48	14	7	94%	2.9	18.7%	7.1%	11.6%	5.2%	4.98	5.30	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	15	47	197	48	14	7	94%	2.9	24.4%	7.1%	17.3%	3.6%	4.98	3.89	—
2025	24	A+ MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	21	21	103	444	71	34	17	100%	4.9	12.3%	8.8%	3.5%	5.1%	5.40	5.97	—
2025	24	A+ MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	21	21	103	444	71	34	17	100%	4.9	12.3%	8.8%	3.5%	5.1%	5.40	5.97	—
2025	24	A+ RAW	Fort Wayne TinCaps	21	21	103	444	71	34	17	100%	4.9	16.0%	7.7%	8.3%	3.8%	5.40	4.85	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	27	27	137	579	114	36	21	100%	5.1	16.0%	6.7%	9.3%	4.3%	4.39	4.98	—
YTD	25	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	27	27	137	579	114	36	21	100%	5.1	16.0%	6.7%	9.3%	4.3%	4.39	4.98	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	AA RAW	SD	24	24	121	518	98	33	20	100%	5.1	18.9%	6.4%	12.5%	3.9%	4.60	4.43	—
2026	25	AAA RAW	SD	3	3	16	61	16	3	1	100%	5.3	26.2%	4.9%	21.3%	1.6%	2.81	2.41	—
ROS	25	MLB MLE	SD	1	1	6	27	3	3	1	100%	6.4	11.4%	9.8%	1.6%	3.6%	5.75	5.75	-0.1
2026 TOT	25	MLB MLE	SD	—	—	144	606	117	39	22	—	—	19.3%	6.4%	12.9%	3.6%	4.45	5.02	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	SD	22	22	134	568	77	54	20	100%	6.1	13.6%	9.6%	4.1%	3.6%	5.54	5.50	-0.9
2028	27	MLB MLE	SD	22	22	132	559	80	53	20	100%	6.0	14.2%	9.5%	4.8%	3.6%	5.44	5.44	-0.8
2029	28	MLB MLE	SD	21	21	128	543	79	52	20	100%	6.1	14.5%	9.6%	5.0%	3.6%	5.43	5.47	-0.8
2030	29	MLB MLE	SD	20	20	123	518	75	50	20	100%	6.1	14.5%	9.7%	4.7%	3.8%	5.50	5.57	-0.9
2031	30	MLB MLE	SD	19	19	115	487	69	49	19	100%	6.1	14.1%	10.0%	4.1%	4.0%	5.65	5.74	-1.1
2027	26	MLB CTX	SD	10	10	59	249	34	24	9	100%	5.9	13.6%	9.6%	4.1%	3.6%	5.54	5.50	-0.4
2028	27	MLB CTX	SD	14	14	84	355	51	34	13	100%	6.0	14.2%	9.5%	4.8%	3.6%	5.44	5.44	-0.5
2029	28	MLB CTX	SD	16	16	97	410	59	39	15	100%	6.1	14.5%	9.6%	5.0%	3.6%	5.43	5.47	-0.6
2030	29	MLB CTX	SD	17	17	100	422	61	41	16	100%	5.9	14.5%	9.7%	4.7%	3.8%	5.50	5.57	-0.7
2031	30	MLB CTX	SD	16	16	99	418	59	42	17	100%	6.2	14.1%	10.0%	4.1%	4.0%	5.65	5.74	-0.9
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		73	73	439	1855	264	180	69	100%	6.0	14.2%	9.7%	4.6%	3.7%	5.51	5.17	-1.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	120	82	31	100%	6.0	14.2%	9.7%	4.6%	3.7%	5.51	5.17	-0.6
Career	—	MLE		71	63	308	1312	203	98	60	89%	4.3	15.5%	7.5%	8.0%	4.6%	4.79	5.26	-4.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		46	41	200	852	132	64	39	89%	4.3	15.5%	7.5%	8.0%	4.6%	4.79	5.26	-1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ian Koenig (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.75	11.4%	9.8%	3.6%	—	5.47	14.1%	4.6%	396	-0.28	—	—	—
Jarred Cosart R 2015 · 5.07 FIP	25	SP	5.07	15.2%	10.8%	3.4%	.274	4.94	13.1%	-0.5%	132	-0.13	4.10	218	87
Jordan Cooper R 2015 · 5.01 FIP	26	SP	5.01	9.2%	10.2%	2.5%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	5.01	106	83
Johendí Jiminian R 2018 · 5.25 FIP	25	SP	5.25	14.0%	11.4%	3.5%	.282	4.41	13.9%	4.4%	94	-0.84	4.01	419	83
Baron Stuart R 2023 · 5.24 FIP	24	SP	5.24	14.5%	12.2%	3.3%	.266	4.23	17.6%	4.1%	205	-1.01	3.57	306	83
Javier Solano R 2015 · 4.96 FIP	25	SP	4.96	11.0%	6.2%	3.6%	.331	4.12	12.3%	7.3%	275	-0.84	3.67	506	83
Will Rudy R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	22	SP	4.76	15.2%	9.2%	3.3%	.299	5.28	17.4%	8.6%	113	+0.52	4.76	194	81
Allen Webster R 2015 · 5.05 FIP	25	SP	5.05	14.0%	9.1%	3.6%	.356	5.78	14.9%	6.8%	58	+0.73	4.56	177	80
Drew McDaniel R 2023 · 4.71 FIP	22	SP	4.71	14.1%	9.1%	3.0%	.323	5.08	18.7%	8.7%	152	+0.37	4.24	230	79
Chase Solesky R 2023 · 4.80 FIP	25	SP	4.80	14.6%	10.0%	3.0%	.322	4.49	15.4%	8.2%	268	-0.31	4.07	563	79
Tyler Carpenter R 2017 · 4.88 FIP	25	SP	4.88	11.0%	6.7%	3.4%	.287	4.10	13.8%	6.3%	49	-0.78	3.68	296	79
Thomas Farr R 2023 · 5.31 FIP	24	SP	5.31	12.9%	9.7%	3.8%	.278	5.42	11.7%	2.3%	208	+0.11	5.05	423	79
Sam Wolff R 2016 · 5.72 FIP	25	SP	5.72	13.9%	15.0%	3.5%	.278	3.15	25.1%	15.5%	106	-2.57	2.66	178	78
Caleb Clay R 2015 · 4.67 FIP	27	SP	4.67	9.9%	6.9%	2.8%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.67	111	78
Nestor Molina R 2016 · 4.83 FIP	27	SP	4.83	15.0%	8.0%	3.6%	.304	3.61	17.0%	10.2%	289	-1.22	3.01	401	78
Sam Tewes R 2018 · 4.71 FIP	23	SP	4.71	11.2%	7.7%	2.9%	.340	—	—	—	—	—	3.72	105	78
Grahamm Wiest R 2015 · 5.13 FIP	23	SP-	5.13	11.1%	7.8%	3.6%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	5.13	120	78
Josh Roeder R 2018 · 4.74 FIP	25	SP	4.74	12.1%	6.0%	3.5%	.276	4.71	15.1%	6.4%	83	-0.03	4.71	175	77
Colin Welmon R 2017 · 5.33 FIP	24	SP	5.33	12.0%	7.0%	4.3%	.318	—	—	—	—	—	5.33	142	77
Ben Anderson R 2022 · 4.59 FIP	24	SP	4.59	13.0%	12.0%	1.9%	.270	4.32	14.3%	6.0%	217	-0.27	3.80	399	77
Chris McElvain R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	22	SP	4.76	15.8%	11.6%	2.8%	.275	5.24	15.8%	4.7%	198	+0.48	4.07	294	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.5	117	13.9%	9.7%	1.43	5.53
Chi Chi González ('22)	1.3	64	13.3%	9.0%	1.41	5.44
Dylan Covey ('23)	1.5	73	15.4%	9.9%	1.53	6.14
Ty Blach ('24)	2.5	84	12.8%	6.9%	1.23	5.56
Sal Romano ('21)	1.3	86	17.0%	8.8%	1.29	5.10
Luis Perdomo ('22)	2.3	90	16.6%	7.8%	1.08	5.09
Eddie Butler ('18)	1.2	62	13.3%	9.8%	1.49	5.74