Yadier Concepcion

P DSL Cubs Red

Age 18 RHP ROK peak 0.2 · 2028

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	17	ROKDSL Cubs Red	11	10	32	3.38	5.04	7.8%	10.6%	—	K 5.3% · BB 13.3% · FIP 5.97
2027PROJ	18	MLB—	3	3	19	5.25	5.25	16.9%	12.3%	-0.1
2028PROJ49% MLB	19	MLB—	3	3	15	5.03	4.94	18.6%	11.1%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 99%

CompsMoises Castillo (age 19) · Jharold Clemente (age 20) · Tyler Gough (age 19)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133125vR 117

ERA5.25

FIP5.25

K%16.9%

BB%12.3%

K-BB%4.6%

Proj IP19

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 19 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs Red	11	10	32	141	11	15	3	91%	2.9	5.3%	13.3%	-8.0%	3.0%	3.38	5.97	—
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs Red	11	10	32	141	11	15	3	91%	2.9	5.3%	13.3%	-8.0%	3.0%	3.38	5.97	—
2026	17	ROK RAW	DSL Cubs Red	11	10	32	141	11	15	3	91%	2.9	7.8%	10.6%	-2.8%	2.1%	3.38	5.04	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	18	MLB	—	3	3	19	80	14	10	2	100%	6.3	16.9%	12.3%	4.6%	3.0%	5.25	5.25	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	19	MLB MLE	—	5	5	30	128	24	14	4	100%	6.0	18.6%	11.1%	7.4%	2.9%	5.03	4.94	-0.0
2028	19	MLB CTX	—	3	3	15	63	12	7	2	100%	5.0	18.6%	11.1%	7.4%	2.9%	5.03	4.94	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		3	3	15	63	12	7	2	100%	4.9	18.6%	11.1%	7.4%	2.9%	5.03	4.56	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		46	46	200	844	162	94	27	100%	4.4	18.6%	11.1%	7.4%	2.9%	5.03	4.56	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		11	10	32	141	7	19	4	91%	2.9	5.3%	13.3%	-8.0%	3.0%	3.38	5.97	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		69	62	200	881	47	117	26	91%	2.9	5.3%	13.3%	-8.0%	3.0%	3.38	5.97	-0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Yadier Concepcion (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.25	16.9%	12.3%	3.0%	—	4.94	18.6%	7.4%	30	-0.31	—	—	—
Moises Castillo R 2024 · 4.58 FIP	19	SP-	4.58	18.1%	11.7%	2.8%	.269	4.06	19.4%	4.9%	67	-0.52	3.76	104	88
Jharold Clemente R 2023 · 4.97 FIP	20	SP	4.97	17.5%	13.6%	3.0%	.258	5.11	13.3%	4.3%	92	+0.14	4.09	116	88
Tyler Gough R 2023 · 5.48 FIP	19	SP	5.48	13.4%	13.3%	3.3%	.297	3.58	20.0%	6.5%	158	-1.90	3.12	188	87
Alexander Almonte R 2024 · 5.69 FIP	17	SP	5.69	16.2%	13.8%	4.0%	.250	4.82	12.6%	-2.8%	75	-0.87	4.27	100	87
Gio Arriera R 2017 · 5.41 FIP	19	SP	5.41	15.1%	13.9%	3.3%	.333	4.34	15.5%	2.0%	79	-1.07	4.34	185	86
Cristian Aray R 2024 · 4.99 FIP	17	SP-	4.99	14.8%	11.8%	3.0%	.272	4.48	13.0%	-2.3%	72	-0.51	4.44	104	86
Adam Bates R 2024 · 5.12 FIP	18	SP-	5.12	16.2%	14.1%	2.9%	.358	6.39	13.0%	-7.2%	146	+1.27	5.12	183	85
Gary Gill Hill R 2023 · 4.91 FIP	18	SP	4.91	14.1%	12.2%	2.6%	.356	4.59	16.1%	9.8%	380	-0.32	4.32	417	85
Richard Fernandez R 2022 · 5.10 FIP	19	SP	5.10	15.1%	9.3%	3.8%	.309	4.25	16.5%	-0.2%	85	-0.85	3.66	137	85
Nelfy Ynfante R 2023 · 4.22 FIP	18	SP	4.22	18.1%	10.7%	2.4%	.309	4.71	16.8%	5.5%	225	+0.49	3.70	297	85
Walter Ford R 2023 · 4.14 FIP	18	SP	4.14	15.2%	12.1%	1.4%	.348	5.71	12.4%	5.7%	308	+1.57	4.14	330	84
Carlos Betancourt R 2019 · 4.47 FIP	18	SP	4.47	15.5%	12.5%	2.0%	.293	3.35	19.9%	10.6%	45	-1.12	3.35	188	84
Luis Ghisays R 2024 · 5.74 FIP	18	SP	5.74	13.8%	15.0%	3.5%	.291	5.08	16.2%	5.4%	75	-0.66	4.58	110	82
Jordany Ventura R 2019 · 4.08 FIP	19	SP	4.08	16.8%	8.9%	2.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.08	219	82
Mauricio Veliz R 2021 · 5.14 FIP	19	SP	5.14	12.1%	8.8%	3.6%	.307	4.93	12.1%	1.0%	189	-0.21	4.59	282	82
Edgar Leon R 2023 · 4.36 FIP	18	SP	4.36	18.2%	15.4%	1.5%	.268	4.93	17.6%	-3.0%	83	+0.57	4.13	144	82
Waylin Santana R 2021 · 5.12 FIP	18	SP	5.12	15.1%	15.0%	2.5%	.377	6.18	13.5%	1.0%	94	+1.06	4.88	117	81
Giussepe Velasquez R 2021 · 4.21 FIP	18	SP	4.21	17.2%	10.7%	2.2%	.329	5.64	19.1%	4.8%	53	+1.43	4.21	222	81
Nicholas Economos R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	20	SP-	4.95	15.3%	10.7%	3.3%	.233	5.28	10.4%	0.6%	57	+0.33	4.40	223	81
Xavier Javier R 2016 · 4.47 FIP	18	SP	4.47	14.6%	12.2%	1.9%	.237	5.97	9.5%	-10.6%	100	+1.50	4.47	188	80