Durban Arnedo

SS DSL Braves

Age 18 R/R ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2026	17	ROKATL	127	.164/.270/.200	0	11	-10	—	.105/.190/.123
2027PROJ0% MLB	18	MLBATL	237	.206/.269/.274	1	5	55	-0.1
2028PROJ34% MLB	19	MLBATL	68	.210/.276/.287	1	2	60	-0.1
2029PROJ48% MLB	20	MLBATL	162	.214/.281/.300	2	4	65	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk

Speed44

K%36

BB%21

Z-Con%17

Chase%10

Whiff%10

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsJorge Alcantara (age 18) · Pablo Aliendo (age 18) · Juan Villavicencio (age 18)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 106 proj PA

wRC+†55

AVG/OBP/SLG.204 / .267 / .271

PA106

HR1

K%28

BB%7

ISO68

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$4M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.2M
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.2M
2036	Arb-1	$2M	+0.3	$0.6M	+$0.0M (cut)
2037	Arb-2	$3M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2038	Arb-3	$2M	—	—	—
Totals		$3M		$3M	+$0.7M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2026	17	ROK	DSL Braves	—	127	110	18	4	0	0	14	31	2	11	4	164	270	200	470	36	225	24	11	229	-10	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Braves	—	127	114	12	2	0	0	10	38	2	11	4	105	190	123	313	18	155	30	8	154	-10	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Braves	—	127	114	12	2	0	0	10	38	2	11	4	105	190	123	313	18	156	30	8	154	-10	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	17	ROK RAW	DSL Braves	—	127	110	18	4	0	0	14	31	2	11	4	164	270	200	470	36	225	24	11	229	-10	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Braves	—	127	114	12	2	0	0	10	38	2	11	4	105	190	123	313	18	155	30	8	154	-10	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Braves	—	127	114	12	2	0	0	10	38	2	11	4	105	190	123	313	18	155	30	8	154	-10	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	18	MLB MLE	ATL	0%	237	217	44	8	1	1	16	67	2	5	1	206	269	274	542	68	287	28	7	249	55	-13	+1	+0	+3	+5	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	19	MLB MLE	ATL	34%	197	179	38	7	1	2	14	55	2	4	1	210	276	287	563	77	290	28	7	257	60	-9	+0	+0	+2	+4	-0.3
2029	20	MLB MLE	ATL	48%	335	304	65	11	2	4	24	91	4	8	2	214	281	300	581	85	291	27	7	265	65	-14	+1	+0	+4	+7	-0.2
2030	21	MLB MLE	ATL	54%	440	399	87	15	3	6	32	119	6	10	3	218	285	311	596	93	292	27	7	271	70	-16	+1	+0	+5	+10	-0.1
2031	22	MLB MLE	ATL	57%	514	464	102	18	3	7	38	137	7	12	3	221	289	321	610	100	293	27	7	276	73	-16	+1	+0	+6	+11	0.2
2032	23	MLB MLE	ATL	58%	564	510	114	20	3	9	42	148	7	13	3	224	292	329	621	106	294	26	7	281	76	-16	+1	+0	+6	+12	0.4
2033	24	MLB MLE	ATL	57%	596	539	122	21	4	10	44	157	8	13	4	225	293	333	626	108	295	26	7	283	78	-16	+1	+0	+6	+13	0.4
2034	25	MLB MLE	ATL	57%	615	556	126	22	4	11	46	162	8	14	4	225	294	335	629	110	295	26	7	284	78	-16	+1	+0	+7	+13	0.5
2035	26	MLB MLE	ATL	57%	625	565	128	22	4	11	47	164	8	14	4	226	294	337	630	111	295	26	8	285	79	-16	+1	+0	+7	+14	0.6
2036	27	MLB MLE	ATL	60%	626	566	128	22	4	11	47	165	8	14	4	225	293	334	627	110	294	26	8	283	78	-17	+1	+0	+7	+14	0.5
2037	28	MLB MLE	ATL	62%	622	563	126	22	4	10	46	166	8	13	4	223	291	330	621	107	294	27	7	281	76	-18	+1	-1	+7	+13	0.3
2038	29	MLB MLE	ATL	63%	612	555	122	21	3	10	45	165	7	13	4	221	288	324	612	103	292	27	7	277	74	-19	+1	-1	+7	+13	0.0
2028	19	MLB CTX	ATL	34%	68	62	13	2	0	1	5	19	1	2	0	210	276	287	563	77	290	28	7	257	60	-3	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.1
2029	20	MLB CTX	ATL	48%	162	147	31	5	1	2	12	44	2	4	1	214	281	300	581	85	291	27	7	265	65	-7	+0	+0	+2	+4	-0.1
2030	21	MLB CTX	ATL	54%	239	217	46	8	1	3	17	64	3	5	1	218	285	311	596	93	292	27	7	271	70	-9	+1	+0	+3	+5	-0.0
2031	22	MLB CTX	ATL	57%	291	264	58	10	2	4	21	77	4	7	2	221	289	321	610	100	293	26	7	276	73	-9	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.1
2032	23	MLB CTX	ATL	58%	325	294	66	12	2	5	24	86	4	7	2	224	292	329	621	106	294	26	7	281	76	-9	+1	+0	+3	+7	0.2
2033	24	MLB CTX	ATL	57%	340	308	69	12	2	6	25	89	4	8	2	225	293	333	626	108	295	26	7	283	78	-9	+1	+0	+4	+7	0.3
2034	25	MLB CTX	ATL	57%	349	315	71	12	2	6	26	92	5	8	2	225	294	335	629	110	295	26	7	284	78	-9	+1	+0	+4	+8	0.3
2035	26	MLB CTX	ATL	57%	354	320	72	13	2	6	26	93	5	8	2	226	294	337	630	111	295	26	7	285	79	-9	+1	+0	+4	+8	0.3
2036	27	MLB CTX	ATL	60%	374	338	76	13	2	7	28	99	5	8	2	225	293	334	627	110	294	26	7	283	78	-10	+1	+0	+4	+8	0.3
2037	28	MLB CTX	ATL	62%	384	347	76	13	2	6	29	102	5	8	2	223	291	330	621	107	294	27	8	281	76	-11	+1	-0	+4	+8	0.2
2038	29	MLB CTX	ATL	63%	384	347	76	13	2	6	29	103	5	8	3	221	288	324	612	103	292	27	8	277	74	-12	+0	-1	+4	+8	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3270	2959	654	113	18	52	242	868	43	73	19	221	289	324	614	103	293	27	7	279	73	-97	+7	-1	+35	+71	1.5
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	588	130	22	4	10	48	173	9	15	4	221	290	323	613	102	294	27	7	279	73	-19	+1	-0	+7	+14	0.3
Career	—	MLE		—	5979	5411	1190	206	36	92	442	1597	76	141	40	220	288	322	610	102	293	27	7	276	73	-178	+12	-2	+63	+127	2.2
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	588	129	22	4	10	48	174	8	15	4	219	287	321	608	102	292	27	7	276	73	-20	+1	-0	+7	+14	0.2

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	4.9	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
/162	664	20	13	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#2Dick Schofield'83-'96 * career totals — 12 seasons, 4,928 PA	7.4	4,928	56	120	227*	307*	330*	+52	+19	9.4	10.0
/162	664	8	16	+7.1	+2.5	1.3	pk7: 11
#3Cliff Penningtonlast yr '17 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,108 PA	4.7	3,108	36	84	243	310	341	+28	+29	9.2	9.5
/162	664	8	18	+5.9	+6.2	2.0	pk7: 10
#4Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	4.2	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
/162	664	10	9	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	5.1	3,376	52	75	223	287	326	+36	+21	3.6	3.5
/162	664	10	15	+7.1	+4.1	0.7	pk7: 3
#5Lennie Merullo'41-'47 * career totals — 6 seasons, 2,264 PA	3.4	2,264	6	38	234*	283*	339*	+24	+15	3.3	3.3
/162	664	2	11	+7.1	+4.4	1.0	pk7: 3
#6Lena Blackburne'10-'27 * career totals — 5 seasons, 2,086 PA	3.1	2,086	4	54	215*	288*	334*	+13	+11	2.0	2.0
/162	664	1	17	+4.2	+3.4	0.6	pk7: 2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Durban Arnedo (OGILVIE)	18	—	—	—	—	204/267/271	67	287	1	2	28%	7%	55	-0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jorge Alcantara 2010 · A	18	42	37→45	51→50	44	200/264/274	74	285	4	11	30%	7%	54	-2.0	207/273/305	98	302	7	11	31%	7%	64	-1.3	189/258/298	110	269	7	17	30%	7%	57	-0.6
✕Pablo Aliendo 2019 · A	18	41	36→50	54→45	38	190/251/263	73	299	3	12	35%	6%	47	-2.6	179/260/245	66	274	4	11	33%	8%	47	-2.5	206/275/350	144	296	17	5	34%	7%	73	-0.3
✕Juan Villavicencio 2023 · A	18	41→44	37→50	55	45	194/259/272	77	267	4	14	28%	8%	51	-2.2	178/254/255	77	256	5	12	30%	8%	47	-2.6	193/266/307	113	285	10	20	34%	8%	61	-0.6
✕Luis Puello 2024 · A	18	42	36→55	50	47	191/283/258	66	287	2	10	31%	9%	59	-1.7	199/263/294	95	299	8	8	34%	6%	59	-1.7	190/247/314	123	286	14	8	37%	5%	54	-0.7
✕Keiberg Camacaro 2024 · A	17	37	38→40	49→60	41	178/262/262	84	282	5	12	36%	8%	52	-2.2	178/283/253	75	253	4	14	28%	10%	59	-1.7	159/287/230	71	209	5	23	24%	12%	55	-0.5
✕Alejandro Selen 2007 · A	18	38	35→50	51→30	44	178/255/240	62	263	2	11	30%	8%	44	-2.8	195/253/267	72	248	4	7	22%	6%	49	-2.4	220/256/360	140	315	15	1	34%	3%	68	-0.4
✕Andrés Nolaya 2024 · A	19	39	36→45	47→50	46	183/256/246	64	263	3	12	30%	8%	45	-2.7	196/270/269	73	284	4	17	30%	8%	55	-1.9	201/281/282	81	280	7	21	28%	8%	61	-0.5
✕Aldo Gaxiola 2024 · A	18	42	37→55	49→40	46	200/275/274	74	279	5	9	28%	8%	59	-1.7	199/263/295	96	263	9	5	27%	6%	59	-1.7	193/251/309	115	259	14	2	30%	5%	55	-0.8
✕Yordany De Los Santos 2023 · A	18	40	36→45	51→60	50	186/273/253	67	253	2	13	25%	9%	54	-2.0	202/271/287	85	305	6	23	33%	7%	60	-1.6	207/258/332	125	300	14	35	34%	5%	62	-1.0
✕Dashyll Tejeda 2024 · A	18	38	35→40	52→60	45	178/263/238	59	271	3	17	32%	9%	47	-2.6	195/280/265	70	269	4	38	26%	9%	59	-1.7	186/279/257	71	263	5	49	28%	10%	55	-0.7
✕Joseph Tailor 2024 · A	18	40	36→45	53→50	39	191/248/254	63	287	4	14	33%	6%	43	-2.8	179/264/266	87	264	6	13	33%	6%	54	-2.0	141/246/232	90	206	6	17	32%	6%	38	-0.9
✕Rodolfo Castro 2017 · A	18	40→42	37→55	48→50	46	191/261/271	79	260	3	5	26%	8%	52	-2.2	197/244/318	121	277	11	5	32%	5%	56	-1.9	211/274/367	156	276	20	7	30%	7%	79	-0.2
✕Adrian De Leon 2022 · A	18	41	37→40	49→45	44	196/271/269	73	275	4	6	29%	7%	56	-1.9	203/293/278	75	310	5	6	33%	9%	68	-1.0	160/270/224	63	280	5	3	40%	10%	47	-1.1
✕Cristian Hernández 2022 · A	18	42→48	37→45	55→60	50	201/278/273	72	271	5	19	26%	9%	59	-1.6	194/257/266	72	306	5	18	35%	7%	49	-2.4	217/285/319	102	301	8	34	29%	8%	69	-0.8
✕Carlos Cauro 2023 · A	18	41	35→40	45	44	190/263/252	62	283	3	5	32%	8%	49	-2.4	198/278/298	100	289	10	5	32%	9%	65	-1.2	191/283/288	97	272	12	4	31%	9%	65	-0.4
✕Marco Guzman 2013 · A	18	36	35→50	46→50	50	171/258/234	63	226	2	8	23%	9%	44	-2.8	181/253/251	70	223	3	7	19%	8%	45	-2.7	218/259/314	97	279	5	8	23%	5%	59	-0.6
✕Aroon Escobar 2023 · A	18	40→46	37→45	47→55	51	190/291/259	69	233	5	12	19%	8%	63	-1.4	203/293/290	87	241	8	16	18%	9%	70	-0.9	224/302/327	104	269	12	19	21%	8%	79	-0.1
✕Jhoneiker Betancourt 2018 · A	18	43	36→50	51→40	38	204/257/273	69	285	3	8	28%	5%	51	-2.3	184/244/244	60	242	2	5	23%	5%	40	-3.1	166/239/253	87	213	9	2	26%	6%	41	-1.0
✕Rodolfo Durán 2016 · A	18	40	36→50	45	37	191/233/259	68	269	3	6	30%	5%	38	-3.2	213/252/332	119	284	13	5	29%	5%	62	-1.4	229/272/378	149	281	17	3	25%	5%	78	-0.2
✕Jason Lopez 2016 · A	18	39	35→50	49→45	50	186/257/245	59	238	3	13	22%	8%	45	-2.7	199/257/289	90	267	7	9	27%	6%	55	-2.0	192/240/305	113	271	11	8	32%	6%	50	-1.0

Durban Arnedo

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps