Rafeliz Lara

SS DSL CLE Goryl

Age 18 S/R ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2026	17	ROKDSL CLE Goryl	201	.290/.375/.511	5	10	50	—	.176/.250/.286
2027PROJ0% MLB	18	MLB—	311	.243/.303/.361	4	6	87	0.4
2028PROJ43% MLB	19	MLB—	109	.246/.308/.369	1	2	91	0.2
2029PROJ61% MLB	20	MLB—	231	.248/.311/.376	3	5	94	0.6

Next 3 projected WAR 1.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk

Z-Con%97

K%95

Whiff%95

ISO88

Speed76

wOBA68

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsXavier Edwards (age 19) · Pedro Ramírez (age 19) · Ronald Torreyes (age 18)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 170 proj PA

wRC+87

AVG/OBP/SLG.241 / .300 / .358

PA170

HR2

K%21

BB%7

ISO117

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$77M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 74 / POW 41

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT74

scouting grade only

POWER41

scouting grade only

EYE50

scouting grade only

SPEED56

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.5	$8M	+$7M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.6	$8M	+$7M
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.6	$7M	+$7M
2036	Arb-1	$5M	+1.5	$6M	+$4M
2037	Arb-2	$8M	+1.3	$5M	+$2M
2038	Arb-3	$10M	+1.1	$4M	+$0.6M
Totals		$27M		$37M	+$27M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2026	17	ROK	DSL CLE Goryl	—	201	176	51	10	7	5	19	21	5	10	3	290	375	511	886	222	305	10	9	387	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL CLE Goryl	—	201	182	32	6	4	2	13	26	5	10	3	176	250	286	536	110	193	13	6	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL CLE Goryl	—	201	182	32	6	4	2	13	26	5	10	3	176	250	286	536	110	194	13	6	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	17	ROK RAW	DSL CLE Goryl	—	201	176	51	10	7	5	19	21	5	10	3	290	375	511	886	222	305	10	9	387	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL CLE Goryl	—	201	181	32	6	4	2	13	26	5	10	3	177	250	287	537	110	193	13	6	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL CLE Goryl	—	201	181	32	6	4	2	13	26	5	10	3	177	250	287	537	110	193	13	6	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	18	MLB MLE	—	0%	311	284	69	12	5	4	20	65	4	6	1	243	303	361	663	117	301	21	6	296	87	-5	+1	+0	+3	+7	0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	19	MLB MLE	—	43%	253	231	56	10	4	3	17	53	3	5	2	246	308	369	677	123	303	21	7	302	91	-3	+0	+0	+3	+5	0.6
2029	20	MLB MLE	—	61%	379	344	86	15	6	6	26	79	6	8	3	248	311	376	688	128	304	21	7	307	94	-3	+0	+0	+4	+8	1.0
2030	21	MLB MLE	—	68%	473	430	107	19	7	8	33	98	7	11	4	250	314	382	696	133	304	21	7	310	96	-2	+1	+0	+5	+10	1.4
2031	22	MLB MLE	—	71%	540	489	124	22	8	10	38	112	8	12	4	251	316	387	703	136	304	21	7	313	98	-1	+1	+0	+6	+12	1.7
2032	23	MLB MLE	—	72%	585	529	133	23	9	11	42	121	9	13	4	252	317	391	708	139	304	21	7	315	99	-0	+1	+0	+6	+13	2.0
2033	24	MLB MLE	—	72%	614	556	141	25	9	12	44	127	9	14	5	253	318	392	711	140	305	21	7	316	100	+0	+1	+0	+7	+13	2.1
2034	25	MLB MLE	—	71%	626	567	143	25	9	12	45	129	9	14	5	253	318	393	711	140	305	21	7	316	100	+0	+1	+0	+7	+14	2.2
2035	26	MLB MLE	—	71%	634	574	144	25	9	12	46	131	9	14	5	253	318	393	711	140	305	21	7	316	100	+0	+1	+0	+7	+14	2.2
2036	27	MLB MLE	—	70%	634	574	144	25	9	12	46	132	9	14	5	252	317	390	708	139	305	21	7	315	99	-0	+1	+0	+7	+14	2.1
2037	28	MLB MLE	—	69%	629	569	142	25	9	11	46	132	9	13	5	250	316	386	702	136	304	21	7	313	98	-2	+1	-1	+7	+14	1.9
2038	29	MLB MLE	—	67%	619	560	139	24	9	11	45	132	9	12	5	248	313	380	694	132	303	21	7	309	95	-3	+0	-1	+7	+13	1.6
2039	30	MLB MLE	—	66%	609	553	136	23	9	10	43	132	8	11	5	246	310	373	683	128	302	22	7	305	93	-5	+0	-2	+7	+13	1.3
2040	31	MLB MLE	—	71%	594	539	130	22	8	9	42	131	8	9	7	242	305	364	669	122	300	22	7	299	89	-8	-1	-3	+6	+13	0.8
2041	32	MLB MLE	—	68%	576	524	125	21	8	8	40	129	7	8	10	237	300	352	652	115	297	22	7	292	84	-11	-2	-4	+6	+12	0.2
2042	33	MLB MLE	—	73%	546	498	115	19	7	7	37	126	6	7	15	231	293	338	631	107	293	23	7	284	78	-14	-5	-4	+6	+12	-0.5
2028	19	MLB CTX	—	43%	109	100	24	4	2	1	7	23	1	2	1	246	308	369	677	123	303	21	6	302	91	-1	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.2
2029	20	MLB CTX	—	61%	231	210	52	9	4	3	16	48	3	5	2	248	311	376	688	128	304	21	7	307	94	-2	+0	+0	+2	+5	0.6
2030	21	MLB CTX	—	68%	322	291	73	13	5	5	23	67	5	7	2	250	314	382	696	133	304	21	7	310	96	-1	+1	+0	+3	+7	1.0
2031	22	MLB CTX	—	71%	384	348	87	15	6	7	27	80	6	9	3	251	316	387	703	136	304	21	7	313	98	-1	+1	+0	+4	+8	1.2
2032	23	MLB CTX	—	72%	423	384	96	17	6	8	30	88	6	10	3	252	317	391	708	139	304	21	7	315	99	-0	+1	+0	+5	+9	1.4
2033	24	MLB CTX	—	72%	439	398	100	18	6	8	32	91	6	10	3	253	318	392	711	140	305	21	7	316	100	+0	+1	+0	+5	+10	1.5
2034	25	MLB CTX	—	71%	446	404	103	18	7	9	32	92	7	10	3	253	318	393	711	140	305	21	7	316	100	+0	+1	+0	+5	+10	1.6
2035	26	MLB CTX	—	71%	450	407	104	18	7	9	33	93	7	10	3	253	318	393	711	140	305	21	7	316	100	+0	+1	+0	+5	+10	1.6
2036	27	MLB CTX	—	70%	441	400	100	18	6	8	32	92	6	10	3	252	317	390	708	139	305	21	7	315	99	-0	+1	+0	+5	+10	1.5
2037	28	MLB CTX	—	69%	433	393	98	17	6	8	31	91	6	9	3	250	316	386	702	136	304	21	7	313	98	-1	+1	-0	+5	+9	1.3
2038	29	MLB CTX	—	67%	414	375	93	16	6	7	30	88	6	8	3	248	313	380	694	132	303	21	7	309	95	-2	+0	-1	+4	+9	1.1
2039	30	MLB CTX	—	66%	401	364	90	15	6	7	29	87	5	7	4	246	310	373	683	128	302	22	7	305	93	-4	-0	-1	+4	+9	0.8
2040	31	MLB CTX	—	71%	421	383	92	16	6	6	30	93	5	7	5	242	305	364	669	122	300	22	7	299	89	-6	-1	-2	+5	+9	0.6
2041	32	MLB CTX	—	68%	393	358	84	14	5	5	27	88	5	6	6	237	300	352	652	115	297	22	7	292	84	-8	-1	-2	+4	+9	0.2
2042	33	MLB CTX	—	73%	396	361	84	14	5	5	27	91	5	5	11	231	293	338	631	107	293	23	7	284	78	-10	-3	-3	+4	+9	-0.4
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	5703	5176	1280	222	83	96	406	1212	79	115	55	247	312	378	690	131	304	21	7	308	93	-36	+1	-10	+61	+124	14.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	590	145	25	9	11	46	138	9	13	6	246	310	375	685	129	302	21	7	308	93	-4	+0	-1	+7	+14	1.6
Career	—	MLE		—	8682	7874	1935	336	127	146	614	1826	123	178	88	246	310	376	687	131	301	21	7	306	93	-56	-0	-15	+91	+184	20.8
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	590	145	25	10	11	46	137	9	13	7	246	310	378	688	132	301	21	7	306	93	-4	-0	-1	+7	+14	1.6

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Stephen Drewlast yr '17 career totals — 12 seasons, 4,917 PA	7.4	4,917	123	41	252	318	423	+48	+35	26.3	25.1
/162	664	17	6	+6.5	+4.7	3.5	pk7: 24
#2Erick Aybarlast yr '17 career totals — 11 seasons, 5,588 PA	8.4	5,588	58	154	271	314	372	+58	+49	22.0	21.3
/162	664	7	18	+6.9	+5.8	2.6	pk7: 21
#3Chico Carrasquel'50-'59 * career totals — 10 seasons, 5,259 PA	7.9	5,259	55	31	251*	317*	361*	+54	+31	14.2	15.5
/162	664	7	4	+6.9	+3.9	1.8	pk7: 17
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 11 projected seasons	8.8	5,872	99	117	249	309	380	+63	+33	18.5	15.3
/162	664	11	13	+7.1	+3.7	2.1	pk7: 12
#4Zoilo Versalles'59-'71 * career totals — 11 seasons, 5,578 PA	8.4	5,578	95	97	247*	294*	397*	+56	+13	12.5	13.7
/162	664	11	12	+6.7	+1.6	1.5	pk7: 15
#5Greg Gagne'83-'97 * career totals — 13 seasons, 6,207 PA	9.3	6,207	111	108	249*	297*	394*	+65	+26	13.2	13.0
/162	664	12	12	+6.9	+2.8	1.4	pk7: 13
#6Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	4.3	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
/162	664	15	8	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Rafeliz Lara (OGILVIE)	18	69→74	36→41	51→56	50	241/300/358	116	301	2	3	21%	7%	87	+0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Xavier Edwards 2019 · A	19	53→63	37→40	56→60	50	245/308/320	75	309	3	18	21%	8%	80	-0.2	257/303/319	62	306	1	19	15%	6%	77	-0.3	308/366/390	82	353	4	36	13%	8%	116	+2.2
✕Pedro Ramírez 2023 · A	19	50→57	40→45	53→55	44	237/287/335	98	286	6	14	19%	5%	76	-0.4	245/302/345	100	311	7	14	22%	7%	84	+0.1	265/318/375	110	323	9	22	20%	6%	95	+0.8
✕Ronald Torreyes 2011 · A	18	57→59	42→45	52→50	47	268/318/394	126	285	6	14	9%	4%	101	+1.4	271/315/368	97	293	5	11	9%	4%	94	+0.9	271/315/361	90	292	4	9	8%	4%	89	+0.4
✕Rubén Tejada 2008 · A	18	51→61	38→40	51→50	50	240/318/319	79	291	5	13	18%	8%	85	+0.2	237/292/307	70	286	3	9	17%	6%	72	-0.7	264/320/329	64	312	2	6	15%	6%	86	+0.3
✕Aron Estrada 2023 · A	18	50→54	41→50	47→55	54	238/323/346	109	290	6	7	19%	10%	93	+0.8	235/304/342	107	293	8	18	21%	8%	84	+0.2	258/306/387	130	312	14	21	21%	5%	93	+0.7
●Jose Tabata 2007 · A	18	54→62	41→45	51→55	44	257/313/356	99	323	8	16	22%	6%	91	+0.6	271/321/361	90	336	7	14	20%	5%	95	+0.9	284/341/385	101	328	6	26	14%	7%	107	+1.5
●Ozzie Albies 2015 · A	18	58→62	36→60	55	51	271/332/343	72	321	3	18	16%	7%	94	+0.9	270/316/368	98	332	4	20	19%	6%	94	+0.9	273/321/453	180	310	18	16	18%	6%	116	+2.9
✕Diego Velasquez 2024 · A	20	49→59	40	50	46	234/299/328	94	301	7	12	24%	7%	80	-0.2	253/321/334	81	323	4	15	21%	8%	88	+0.5	262/334/335	73	332	3	18	20%	8%	91	+0.6
✕Hendry Mendez 2022 · A	18	50→57	39→45	51→45	51	234/299/332	97	275	5	7	16%	8%	80	-0.2	227/296/304	77	285	5	5	20%	9%	73	-0.6	262/336/372	110	313	10	6	18%	9%	101	+1.0
✕Keibert Ruiz 2017 · A	19	51→59	38→50	47→40	44	239/276/325	86	280	4	4	16%	4%	69	-0.9	254/295/354	100	286	9	2	14%	4%	83	+0.1	257/310/410	154	264	19	3	11%	6%	103	+1.2
✕Max Moroff 2013 · A	20	51→60	39→50	48→50	52	239/316/323	85	302	6	12	22%	10%	84	+0.2	217/281/304	87	307	5	10	29%	8%	67	-1.1	242/324/370	128	322	13	10	27%	10%	96	+0.8
●Alek Thomas 2019 · A	19	51→57	38→50	51→50	45	241/287/329	88	302	4	10	21%	6%	74	-0.6	251/307/379	128	337	10	10	27%	7%	93	+0.8	255/313/401	146	322	13	11	24%	7%	98	+1.0
✕Alejo Lopez 2016 · A	20	51→61	38→40	46→55	51	239/308/319	80	277	4	9	15%	7%	80	-0.1	229/282/302	73	267	4	10	15%	6%	66	-1.1	269/335/357	88	309	5	12	14%	8%	96	+0.8
●Chance Sisco 2014 · A	19	54→64	38→50	47→40	47	247/319/327	80	341	5	6	27%	8%	86	+0.3	281/335/373	92	363	6	4	22%	7%	102	+1.5	296/352/391	94	378	6	3	22%	7%	110	+1.5
●Elvis Andrus 2007 · A	18	50→60	38→50	47→60	42	237/283/320	84	312	5	14	25%	6%	71	-0.8	249/302/329	80	321	5	29	22%	6%	80	-0.1	276/328/411	135	308	11	19	14%	7%	107	+1.7
●Jackson Holliday 2023 · A	19	51→61	41→50	49→50	60	240/338/346	106	301	8	10	21%	13%	98	+1.2	254/339/391	137	339	12	14	26%	11%	109	+2.0	249/334/388	139	323	13	15	25%	11%	105	+1.7
●Andrés Giménez 2018 · A	19	50→59	38→50	48→55	49	236/308/322	86	282	5	11	18%	7%	82	-0.0	242/299/351	109	312	7	23	24%	5%	84	+0.2	260/322/413	154	311	16	25	21%	5%	109	+1.8
●Adael Amador 2022 · A	19	46→56	41→50	45→55	48	223/287/324	101	278	9	11	23%	8%	74	-0.5	249/327/380	131	292	14	17	19%	9%	102	+1.5	244/325/378	134	283	16	23	19%	10%	99	+0.9
✕Adrian Cardenas 2008 · A	20	52→60	41→45	50	44	252/296/351	100	305	8	12	20%	6%	83	+0.1	265/314/360	95	319	6	10	18%	6%	91	+0.7	281/332/373	92	325	5	8	14%	7%	100	+1.2
●Josue De Paula 2024 · A	19	52→54	38→50	51→55	52	242/326/327	85	316	5	14	23%	10%	89	+0.5	236/331/360	124	307	12	20	25%	12%	99	+1.3	241/338/391	150	298	16	24	23%	12%	106	+1.5

Rafeliz Lara

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps