Adafel Montiel

C DSL Colorado

Age 20 S/R ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

OGV OFP35OGV rank#592ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2026	19	ROKDSL Colorado	186	.338/.486/.486	5	10	87	—	.230/.361/.316
2027PROJMLE	20	MLB—	296	.225/.307/.306	3	5	77	0.2
2028PROJ34% MLB	21	MLB—	50	.228/.310/.319	1	1	81	0.1
2029PROJ48% MLB	22	MLB—	117	.231/.313/.329	2	2	84	0.3

Next 3 projected WAR 0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk

Z-Con%94

Whiff%93

wOBA92

wRC+90

K%90

Chase%69

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 95%

CompsLeo Bernal (age 20) · Shawn Zarraga (age 20) · Juan Brito (age 20)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 97 proj PA

wRC+77

AVG/OBP/SLG.223 / .304 / .304

PA97

HR1

K%23

BB%9

ISO82

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$34M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.8	$2M	+$1M
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2036	Arb-1	$2M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.1M
2037	Arb-2	$3M	+0.4	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
2038	Arb-3	$2M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$7M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2026	19	ROK	DSL Colorado	—	186	142	48	6	0	5	32	23	9	10	4	338	486	486	972	148	368	12	17	433	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2026	19	ROK MLE	DSL Colorado	—	186	152	35	4	0	3	22	28	9	10	4	230	361	316	676	86	244	15	12	297	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	DSL Colorado	—	186	152	35	4	0	3	22	28	9	10	4	230	361	316	676	86	258	15	12	297	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK RAW	DSL Colorado	—	186	142	48	6	0	5	32	23	9	10	4	338	486	486	972	148	368	12	17	433	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	DSL Colorado	—	186	153	35	4	0	3	22	28	9	10	4	229	361	314	674	85	244	15	12	297	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2026	19	ROK MLE	DSL Colorado	—	186	153	35	4	0	3	22	28	9	10	4	229	361	314	674	85	244	15	12	297	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	20	MLB MLE	—	0%	296	263	60	9	2	3	26	68	5	5	1	225	307	306	613	82	288	23	9	282	77	-8	+1	+0	+5	+6	0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	—	34%	146	129	29	4	1	2	13	33	3	3	1	228	310	319	629	91	289	23	9	288	81	-3	+0	+0	+3	+3	0.3
2029	22	MLB MLE	—	48%	241	214	49	7	1	4	21	55	4	4	1	231	313	329	642	98	290	23	9	293	84	-4	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.6
2030	23	MLB MLE	—	54%	337	299	70	10	2	6	29	76	6	6	1	233	315	339	653	105	291	23	9	297	87	-5	+1	+0	+6	+7	0.9
2031	24	MLB MLE	—	55%	401	356	84	13	2	8	35	91	7	7	2	235	316	346	663	111	292	23	9	301	90	-5	+1	+0	+7	+9	1.2
2032	25	MLB MLE	—	56%	438	389	92	14	2	9	38	99	8	7	2	237	317	352	669	116	292	23	9	303	91	-5	+1	+0	+8	+9	1.4
2033	26	MLB MLE	—	56%	445	395	93	14	2	9	39	100	8	7	2	237	317	354	671	117	292	22	9	304	92	-4	+1	+0	+8	+10	1.4
2034	27	MLB MLE	—	55%	445	395	93	14	2	9	39	101	8	7	2	236	316	351	667	116	292	23	9	302	91	-5	+1	+0	+8	+10	1.4
2035	28	MLB MLE	—	55%	445	396	92	14	2	9	39	102	7	7	2	234	314	346	661	113	291	23	9	299	89	-6	+1	-1	+8	+10	1.2
2036	29	MLB MLE	—	53%	445	396	91	14	2	8	39	103	7	7	2	231	311	340	651	109	289	23	9	296	86	-7	+1	-1	+8	+10	1.0
2037	30	MLB MLE	—	53%	444	396	90	13	2	8	38	104	7	7	2	228	307	332	639	104	287	23	9	291	83	-9	+1	-2	+8	+10	0.7
2038	31	MLB MLE	—	52%	409	365	82	12	2	7	35	98	6	6	3	224	303	322	624	98	284	24	9	285	79	-10	+0	-3	+7	+9	0.3
2039	32	MLB MLE	—	52%	370	330	72	10	1	6	31	90	6	5	5	218	296	309	606	91	280	24	8	277	74	-12	-1	-4	+7	+8	-0.1
2028	21	MLB CTX	—	34%	50	45	10	1	0	1	4	11	1	1	0	228	310	319	629	91	289	22	8	288	81	-1	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.1
2029	22	MLB CTX	—	48%	117	104	25	4	1	2	10	27	2	2	0	231	313	329	642	98	290	23	9	293	84	-2	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.3
2030	23	MLB CTX	—	54%	183	162	38	6	1	3	16	41	3	3	1	233	315	339	653	105	291	22	9	297	87	-3	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.5
2031	24	MLB CTX	—	55%	222	197	46	7	1	4	19	50	4	4	1	235	316	346	663	111	292	23	9	301	90	-3	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.7
2032	25	MLB CTX	—	56%	245	218	51	8	1	5	21	55	4	4	1	237	317	352	669	116	292	22	9	303	91	-3	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.8
2033	26	MLB CTX	—	56%	250	222	52	8	1	5	22	56	4	4	1	237	317	354	671	117	292	22	9	304	92	-2	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.8
2034	27	MLB CTX	—	55%	246	218	51	8	1	5	22	56	4	4	1	236	316	351	667	116	292	23	9	302	91	-3	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.8
2035	28	MLB CTX	—	55%	244	217	51	8	1	5	21	56	4	4	1	234	314	346	661	113	291	23	9	299	89	-3	+0	-0	+4	+5	0.7
2036	29	MLB CTX	—	53%	238	211	48	7	1	4	21	55	4	4	1	231	311	340	651	109	289	23	9	296	86	-4	+0	-1	+4	+5	0.5
2037	30	MLB CTX	—	53%	234	208	47	7	1	4	20	55	4	3	1	228	307	332	639	104	287	24	9	291	83	-5	+0	-1	+4	+5	0.4
2038	31	MLB CTX	—	52%	213	190	43	6	1	4	18	51	3	3	2	224	303	322	624	98	284	24	8	285	79	-5	-0	-1	+4	+5	0.1
2039	32	MLB CTX	—	52%	192	171	37	5	1	3	16	47	3	3	2	218	296	309	606	91	280	24	8	277	74	-6	-0	-2	+3	+4	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2434	2163	499	75	11	45	210	560	40	39	12	231	310	338	648	107	289	23	9	296	86	-40	+3	-6	+43	+53	5.5
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	578	133	20	3	12	56	150	11	10	3	230	311	337	648	107	289	23	9	296	86	-11	+1	-1	+12	+14	1.5
Career	—	MLE		—	4849	4299	992	146	22	89	426	1102	88	85	29	231	313	337	650	106	288	23	9	295	86	-78	+5	-10	+83	+101	10.2
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	576	134	20	3	12	57	148	12	11	4	233	314	340	655	108	291	23	9	295	86	-11	+1	-1	+12	+14	1.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 DSLDSL Colorado · 186 PAwOBA .430 → .297 (−132)K% 12.4% → 15.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	12.37%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	15.09%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	17.20%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	—	12.04%
HBP% /PA	4.84%	—	×0.700	—	—	3.39%
Singles /BIP	31.09%	÷1.000	×0.680	×1.014	—	21.44%
Doubles /BIP	5.04%	÷1.000	×0.600	×1.014	—	3.07%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.600	×1.014	—	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	4.20%	÷1.000	×0.470	—	—	1.97%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age unknown — no age adjustment. Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.014.

Result: wOBA .430 → .297; ISO .148 → .082; BABIP .368 → .244. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Tucker Barnhartlast yr '24 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,088 PA	4.7	3,088	53	8	241	318	351	+55	+57	16.5	16.1
/162	664	11	2	+11.9	+12.3	3.6	pk7: 16
#2Jacob Stallingslast yr '25 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,850 PA	2.8	1,850	33	0	229	310	340	+33	+50	10.3	10.3
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+17.9	3.7	pk7: 10
#3Mike Fitzgerald'83-'92 * career totals — 9 seasons, 2,667 PA	4.0	2,667	48	31	234*	320*	372*	+43	-1	9.5	9.3
/162	664	12	8	+10.8	-0.3	2.4	pk7: 9
#4Jorge Alfarolast yr '23 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,693 PA	2.5	1,693	48	18	254	303	396	+30	+17	9.1	9.1
/162	664	19	7	+11.9	+6.6	3.6	pk7: 9
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	3.8	2,531	46	40	232	309	339	+45	+28	7.6	6.7
/162	664	12	11	+11.9	+7.3	2.0	pk7: 6
#5Buck Rodgers'61-'69 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,353 PA	5.0	3,353	31	17	239*	294*	339*	+60	+0	6.4	6.5
/162	664	6	3	+11.8	+0.0	1.3	pk7: 7
#6Jake Gibbs'63-'71 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,795 PA	2.7	1,795	25	28	244*	299*	362*	+32	+0	5.4	5.4
/162	664	9	10	+11.9	+0.0	2.0	pk7: 5

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Adafel Montiel (OGILVIE)	20	—	—	—	—	223/304/304	81	288	1	2	23%	9%	77	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Leo Bernal 2024 · A	20	45→50	42→45	47→50	49	220/293/323	103	283	9	5	25%	9%	76	-0.4	231/296/349	118	296	13	8	25%	8%	83	+0.1	235/299/362	127	292	15	9	24%	8%	85	+0.2
✕Shawn Zarraga 2009 · A	20	48	40	51→45	49	227/308/323	96	307	7	7	26%	9%	82	+0.0	224/297/299	75	308	5	6	26%	8%	72	-0.7	277/345/359	82	319	4	2	13%	7%	103	+0.5
✕Juan Brito 2022 · A	20	44→50	41→50	47→45	46	215/282/311	96	276	9	12	25%	8%	70	-0.9	234/317/368	134	286	12	9	21%	10%	96	+1.0	231/317/370	139	276	13	9	20%	10%	94	+0.8
✕Diego Velasquez 2024 · A	20	49→59	40	50	46	234/299/328	94	301	7	12	24%	7%	80	-0.2	253/321/334	81	323	4	15	21%	8%	88	+0.5	262/334/335	73	332	3	18	20%	8%	91	+0.6
✕Pedro Ramírez 2024 · A	20	48→57	42→45	51→55	48	234/298/345	111	291	9	14	22%	7%	82	+0.0	255/308/360	105	318	8	17	21%	6%	90	+0.6	265/318/375	110	323	9	22	20%	6%	95	+0.8
✕Aron Estrada 2024 · A	19	47→54	41→50	52→55	54	220/310/327	107	272	6	9	20%	10%	84	+0.2	247/301/365	118	304	11	21	22%	6%	88	+0.5	258/306/387	130	312	14	21	21%	5%	93	+0.7
✕Héctor Sánchez 2010 · A	20	47→50	38→50	47→30	51	221/298/306	85	266	5	4	18%	8%	75	-0.5	242/282/351	109	298	9	2	21%	5%	78	-0.3	251/289/371	119	308	13	0	22%	4%	85	+0.1
✕Jose Lobatón 2006 · A	21	45	39→45	50→30	46	213/275/298	85	283	5	8	26%	8%	63	-1.3	216/286/337	121	301	12	3	30%	9%	77	-0.3	234/317/366	131	296	12	0	23%	10%	95	+0.4
✕Brayan Rocchio 2021 · A	20	48→56	38→45	48→50	43	229/281/312	83	285	5	13	21%	5%	68	-1.0	235/295/363	128	298	12	14	24%	6%	86	+0.3	241/304/368	127	298	11	16	22%	7%	87	+0.4
✕Josh Johnson 2006 · A	20	43→50	39→45	48→50	50	203/281/298	95	268	5	9	24%	9%	66	-1.1	222/309/292	70	291	3	10	22%	11%	75	-0.5	247/316/346	99	293	8	16	17%	9%	86	+0.2
●Bryan Rincon 2024 · A	20	43→47	43→45	49→55	54	210/307/319	109	268	10	19	24%	11%	82	-0.0	196/286/316	120	277	12	25	31%	10%	73	-0.6	192/290/337	145	263	17	31	32%	11%	77	-0.2
●Angel Genao 2024 · A	20	47→57	39→45	48→50	48	224/290/313	89	292	6	9	24%	8%	73	-0.6	262/314/381	119	324	9	12	21%	7%	97	+1.1	271/329/396	125	328	10	12	19%	8%	104	+1.3
✕Harold Garcia 2007 · A	20	42→52	38→45	46→55	49	197/295/278	82	252	4	9	22%	8%	68	-1.0	215/282/308	93	269	6	15	22%	5%	69	-0.9	253/305/360	108	338	8	26	26%	4%	87	+0.3
✕Luis Torrens 2016 · A	20	43→49	39→50	49→40	45	207/279/288	81	285	6	6	28%	8%	63	-1.3	212/273/295	83	270	6	4	22%	7%	62	-1.4	233/290/382	149	292	18	0	26%	7%	89	+0.3
✕Colin Walsh 2011 · A	21	44→52	40→45	53→50	52	213/295/309	95	271	8	10	23%	10%	74	-0.6	224/297/348	124	275	11	8	21%	9%	84	+0.1	214/321/331	117	302	10	7	29%	13%	87	+0.3
✕Max Moroff 2013 · A	20	51→60	39→50	48→50	52	239/316/323	85	302	6	12	22%	10%	84	+0.2	217/281/304	87	307	5	10	29%	8%	67	-1.1	242/324/370	128	322	13	10	27%	10%	96	+0.8
✕Thayron Liranzo 2022 · A	19	43	37→50	49→30	47	202/280/280	77	287	4	8	29%	9%	62	-1.4	208/291/366	158	303	18	3	35%	10%	86	+0.3	203/298/375	172	290	20	1	35%	11%	87	+0.2
✕Juan Benjamin 2023 · A	20	46→51	41→40	50→55	49	216/295/324	107	296	7	10	28%	9%	77	-0.3	222/284/297	75	312	4	17	28%	8%	66	-1.1	220/283/288	68	306	3	20	27%	7%	61	-0.9
✕Aidan Miller 2024 · A	20	49→50	38→50	52→65	47	228/303/310	83	316	4	12	27%	8%	77	-0.3	227/310/359	132	312	11	28	28%	9%	91	+0.7	224/315/364	140	306	12	36	28%	10%	91	+0.5
✕Jacob Amaya 2019 · A	20	49→47	39→45	48→45	52	232/310/319	87	306	7	11	25%	10%	82	-0.0	216/290/316	100	284	8	6	25%	9%	74	-0.6	218/291/330	112	279	11	6	25%	9%	75	-0.4

Adafel Montiel

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps