Michael Mesa

OF DSL Blue Jays Blue

Age 18 L/L ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2026	17	ROKDSL Blue Jays…	206	.273/.363/.420	2	2	44	—	.180/.254/.268
2027PROJ0% MLB	18	MLBTOR	316	.212/.276/.303	3	4	64	-0.4
2028PROJ34% MLB	19	MLBTOR	88	.217/.283/.316	1	1	69	-0.2
2029PROJ48% MLB	20	MLBTOR	185	.221/.288/.327	2	3	74	-0.3

Next 3 projected WAR -0.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk

Chase%71

ISO65

Whiff%63

Z-Con%60

K%52

wOBA45

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 99%

CompsHector Osorio (age 18) · Angel Guzman (age 18) · Victor Arias (age 18)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 175 proj PA

wRC+†64

AVG/OBP/SLG.210 / .274 / .301

PA175

HR1

K%26

BB%7

ISO91

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$3M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 48 / POW 36

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT48

scouting grade only

POWER36

scouting grade only

EYE56

scouting grade only

SPEED49

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	—	—	—
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	—	—	—
2036	Arb-1	$0.2M	—	—	—
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2026	17	ROK	DSL Blue Jays Blue	—	206	176	48	20	0	2	25	43	0	2	0	273	363	420	784	148	338	21	12	344	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays Blue	—	206	183	33	13	0	1	18	53	0	2	0	180	254	268	521	87	228	26	9	233	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays Blue	—	206	183	33	13	0	1	18	53	0	2	0	180	254	268	521	87	239	26	9	233	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	17	ROK RAW	DSL Blue Jays Blue	—	206	176	48	20	0	2	25	43	0	2	0	273	363	420	784	148	338	21	12	344	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays Blue	—	206	186	33	13	0	1	18	53	0	2	0	177	254	263	517	86	228	26	9	233	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays Blue	—	206	186	33	13	0	1	18	53	0	2	0	177	254	263	517	86	228	26	9	233	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	18	MLB MLE	TOR	0%	316	287	62	15	2	3	24	83	2	4	2	212	276	303	579	91	285	26	8	263	64	-14	+0	+0	-2	+7	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	19	MLB MLE	TOR	34%	257	234	50	12	1	3	19	66	2	4	2	216	282	315	598	99	287	26	7	271	69	-9	+0	+0	-2	+6	-0.5
2029	20	MLB MLE	TOR	48%	382	347	76	18	2	5	29	97	3	7	3	220	288	326	613	106	289	25	8	277	74	-12	+0	+0	-2	+8	-0.6
2030	21	MLB MLE	TOR	54%	476	431	97	23	3	7	37	120	5	9	4	223	291	335	626	112	290	25	8	282	77	-13	+0	+0	-3	+10	-0.5
2031	22	MLB MLE	TOR	57%	542	489	110	26	3	8	43	135	5	10	5	226	295	342	637	117	291	25	8	287	80	-13	+0	+0	-3	+12	-0.4
2032	23	MLB MLE	TOR	58%	586	529	121	28	3	10	46	145	6	11	5	228	297	348	645	121	292	25	8	290	83	-12	+0	+0	-4	+13	-0.3
2033	24	MLB MLE	TOR	57%	615	555	127	29	3	11	49	152	6	11	6	229	298	351	649	122	293	25	8	292	83	-12	-0	+0	-4	+13	-0.3
2034	25	MLB MLE	TOR	57%	626	565	129	30	3	11	50	154	6	11	6	229	298	352	650	123	293	25	8	292	84	-12	-0	+0	-4	+14	-0.3
2035	26	MLB MLE	TOR	57%	634	573	130	30	3	11	50	156	6	11	6	229	298	352	650	123	292	25	8	292	84	-12	-0	+0	-4	+14	-0.3
2036	27	MLB MLE	TOR	60%	634	573	130	30	3	11	50	157	6	11	6	228	297	349	646	121	292	25	8	291	83	-13	-0	+0	-4	+14	-0.3
2028	19	MLB CTX	TOR	34%	88	80	17	4	0	1	7	23	1	1	1	217	283	316	599	99	288	26	8	271	69	-3	-0	+0	-1	+2	-0.2
2029	20	MLB CTX	TOR	48%	185	167	37	9	1	2	14	47	2	3	2	221	288	327	615	106	290	25	8	278	74	-6	-0	+0	-1	+4	-0.3
2030	21	MLB CTX	TOR	54%	258	234	52	12	1	4	20	65	2	5	2	224	292	336	628	112	291	25	8	283	77	-7	+0	+0	-2	+6	-0.3
2031	22	MLB CTX	TOR	57%	307	277	64	15	2	5	24	77	3	6	3	226	295	343	638	117	292	25	8	287	80	-7	+0	+0	-2	+7	-0.2
2032	23	MLB CTX	TOR	58%	337	304	70	16	2	6	27	83	3	6	3	229	298	349	647	121	293	25	8	291	83	-7	+0	+0	-2	+7	-0.2
2033	24	MLB CTX	TOR	57%	350	316	73	17	2	6	28	86	3	6	3	230	299	352	650	122	294	25	8	292	83	-7	+0	+0	-2	+8	-0.1
2034	25	MLB CTX	TOR	57%	355	321	74	17	2	6	28	88	3	6	3	230	299	353	652	123	294	25	8	293	84	-7	+0	+0	-2	+8	-0.1
2035	26	MLB CTX	TOR	57%	359	325	74	17	2	6	28	89	3	6	3	230	299	353	652	123	293	25	8	293	84	-7	+0	+0	-2	+8	-0.1
2036	27	MLB CTX	TOR	60%	379	342	79	18	2	7	30	94	4	7	4	229	298	350	648	122	293	25	8	291	83	-8	-0	+0	-2	+8	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2618	2366	540	125	14	43	206	652	24	46	24	228	297	347	644	119	295	25	8	289	79	-59	-0	+0	-16	+57	-1.8
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	587	134	31	3	11	51	162	6	11	6	228	296	348	644	119	295	25	8	289	79	-15	-0	+0	-4	+14	-0.5
Career	—	MLE		—	5133	4638	1036	247	25	79	404	1281	46	89	44	223	292	339	631	115	289	25	8	285	79	-116	-0	+0	-30	+107	-4.0
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	587	131	31	3	10	51	162	6	11	6	223	292	337	629	114	289	25	8	285	79	-15	-0	+0	-4	+14	-0.5

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	4.1	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
/162	664	20	13	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#2Nate Schierholtzlast yr '14 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,275 PA	3.4	2,275	52	30	253	302	405	-24	-6	2.0	2.8
/162	664	15	9	-7.1	-1.8	0.6	pk7: 4
#3Jake Powell'30-'45 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,767 PA	4.2	2,767	22	65	248*	294*	373*	-14	-2	0.2	2.0
/162	664	5	16	-3.3	-0.5	0.0	pk7: 4
#4Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	2.4	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
/162	664	19	6	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#5Eric Owens'95-'03 * career totals — 7 seasons, 2,576 PA	3.9	2,576	26	126	253*	303*	334*	-18	+1	-0.9	0.4
/162	664	7	32	-4.5	+0.2	-0.2	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	4.2	2,794	44	50	227	292	344	-17	+0	-0.4	0.0
/162	664	10	12	-4.0	+0.0	-0.1	pk7: 0
#6Ray Coleman'47-'52 * career totals — 5 seasons, 1,902 PA	2.9	1,902	20	19	249*	297*	399*	-12	-1	-0.1	-0.1
/162	664	7	7	-4.4	-0.4	-0.0	pk7: -0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Michael Mesa (OGILVIE)	18	43→48	31→36	44→49	56	210/274/301	90	285	1	2	26%	7%	64	-0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Hector Osorio 2023 · A	18	46	37→45	47→50	49	215/299/289	74	290	4	8	25%	9%	72	-0.7	205/319/270	65	256	3	14	19%	12%	76	-0.4	223/323/350	127	253	16	10	18%	10%	93	+0.4
✕Angel Guzman 2024 · A	18	39	39→45	51→55	51	190/275/281	91	246	6	9	24%	9%	61	-1.5	193/294/290	97	272	8	10	29%	11%	70	-0.8	182/294/282	100	260	9	9	30%	12%	65	-0.4
✕Victor Arias 2022 · A	18	42→50	37→45	46→50	48	196/277/265	70	283	4	9	30%	10%	57	-1.8	206/294/301	95	310	7	14	32%	10%	72	-0.7	226/304/342	116	321	9	18	30%	8%	82	+0.0
✕Jeisson Rosario 2018 · A	18	48→52	36→45	44→50	49	225/294/290	65	298	3	9	24%	9%	68	-1.0	220/302/286	66	318	3	9	28%	10%	71	-0.8	207/300/312	106	295	10	12	30%	11%	74	-0.4
✕Daniel Montesino 2023 · A	19	46	38→40	48→45	50	212/301/299	87	300	5	8	28%	10%	74	-0.5	199/264/269	70	309	2	9	33%	7%	53	-2.1	176/234/225	50	289	0	8	36%	6%	29	-1.1
✕Yeicok Calderon 2010 · A	18	45	36→40	52→45	51	211/299/277	65	280	4	9	24%	10%	68	-1.0	195/262/299	104	279	9	6	31%	8%	59	-1.6	174/238/294	121	251	12	4	34%	7%	48	-0.9
✕Diego Hernandez 2019 · A	18	46→54	37→40	49→60	46	215/273/287	71	266	3	12	20%	6%	59	-1.6	215/261/273	58	301	3	15	28%	5%	51	-2.2	237/286/308	71	323	5	29	27%	5%	66	-0.6
✕Livan Soto 2018 · A	18	43→53	34→40	47→50	50	198/266/247	49	248	2	9	20%	8%	49	-2.4	204/267/252	48	257	2	9	20%	7%	49	-2.4	246/319/331	85	322	6	8	24%	9%	86	+0.2
✕Jorge Burgos 2021 · A	18	41→51	36→50	51→45	46	194/262/269	75	267	2	10	27%	8%	52	-2.2	233/298/320	87	326	5	6	27%	8%	77	-0.3	234/304/323	89	323	6	4	27%	8%	76	-0.2
✕Jean Ramirez 2019 · A	18	44→49	36→40	51→65	47	208/275/276	67	273	3	15	24%	8%	59	-1.7	204/271/266	62	260	4	22	21%	8%	55	-2.0	200/270/265	65	257	6	39	23%	8%	53	-0.7
✕Abrahan Ramirez 2023 · A	18	46	37→45	47→55	47	215/290/297	83	299	3	10	27%	8%	69	-0.9	222/312/294	72	300	3	13	24%	11%	77	-0.3	217/314/281	64	302	1	14	25%	12%	73	-0.3
✕Estevan Florial 2016 · A	18	43→53	41→50	54→60	45	205/273/309	104	282	7	12	28%	8%	65	-1.2	211/272/326	115	344	10	13	38%	7%	69	-0.9	214/285/371	157	317	17	29	36%	8%	82	+0.0
✕Daniel Lopez 2024 · A	18	43	39→45	50→65	46	205/281/293	89	290	5	10	29%	8%	65	-1.2	192/256/279	87	261	5	17	27%	7%	52	-2.2	182/247/268	86	249	5	28	27%	6%	43	-1.0
✕Samuel Zavala 2022 · A	18	42→44	38→45	48→50	50	199/273/290	91	249	4	11	21%	8%	61	-1.5	196/285/316	120	290	11	11	33%	10%	72	-0.7	193/290/301	108	265	12	12	29%	11%	68	-0.8
✕Roynier Hernandez 2023 · A	18	41→51	34→40	46→50	55	191/273/241	51	235	1	8	18%	10%	51	-2.3	223/295/275	52	280	1	9	19%	9%	65	-1.2	252/319/319	67	324	3	6	21%	9%	82	+0.0
✕Antonis Macias 2024 · A	19	44→51	34→45	45	44	201/282/257	56	290	2	12	29%	8%	58	-1.7	223/308/294	71	307	3	7	26%	10%	76	-0.4	228/313/308	80	299	6	5	23%	10%	79	-0.1
✕Danry Vasquez 2012 · A	18	45→55	37→40	46→45	38	218/252/288	70	277	5	5	23%	3%	51	-2.2	227/265/311	84	282	6	5	21%	5%	62	-1.4	243/287/338	95	286	7	14	17%	5%	72	-0.3
✕Luis Liberato 2014 · A	18	38→48	36→50	48→50	44	184/246/249	65	251	3	13	27%	7%	41	-3.0	188/250/266	78	280	3	11	31%	7%	47	-2.6	221/286/368	148	299	15	9	30%	8%	83	+0.0
✕Kelvin Alcantara 2024 · A	18	43	36→50	44→40	56	202/293/272	70	258	3	5	21%	11%	65	-1.2	208/281/309	101	286	9	4	28%	8%	69	-0.9	203/276/316	112	270	13	2	28%	8%	67	-0.4
✕Ronny Ugarte 2023 · A	18	39	41→45	47→30	46	193/268/298	105	252	7	6	26%	8%	61	-1.5	208/273/298	90	262	5	5	21%	7%	63	-1.4	229/293/323	94	294	8	2	24%	8%	73	-0.3

Michael Mesa

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps