Roynier Hernandez

SS Spokane Indians

Age 22 L/R 5'10" / 180 lbs A+ HR +30%H +12% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP40OGV rank#255ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	19	ROKCOL	243	.305/.421/.360	0	11	68	—	.241/.317/.282
2025	20	A/ROKCOL	345	.297/.366/.373	0	7	75	—	.264/.310/.330
2026	21	AA/A+/A/INTL2 orgs	522	.290/.400/.394	7	4	97	—	.265/.342/.356
2027PROJMLE	22	MLBCOL	1	.246/.320/.337	0	0	80	0.0
2028PROJ31% MLB	23	MLBCOL	144	.251/.325/.359	2	2	86	0.2
2029PROJ45% MLB	24	MLBCOL	231	.255/.329/.373	4	3	91	0.5

Next 3 projected WAR 0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$4M2032Arb-2$6M2033Arb-3$8M

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AA

Z-Con%99

Whiff%93

K%84

wOBA28

wRC+28

Chase%10

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 13, comp-based) · star 3% · didn't stick 80%

CompsNoah Mendlinger (age 22) · Tucker Barnhart (age 22) · Justin Yurchak (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†80

AVG/OBP/SLG.246 / .320 / .337

PA1

HR0

K%20

BB%10

BABIP300

ISO80

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$11M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2031	Arb-1	$4M	+0.9	$3M	+$0.2M
2032	Arb-2	$6M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-3	$8M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$12M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2022	17	ROK	DSL Rockies	—	242	201	50	9	0	0	38	35	0	8	4	249	368	294	662	45	298	14	16	311	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK	DSL Colorado	—	218	180	61	8	2	0	33	23	3	6	3	339	449	406	855	67	384	11	15	389	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK	ACL Rockies	—	243	200	61	9	1	0	39	36	1	11	2	305	421	360	781	55	367	15	16	359	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A	Fresno Grizzlies	—	323	287	84	11	5	0	29	50	2	7	5	293	362	366	727	73	350	15	9	326	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK	ACL Rockies	—	22	19	7	0	1	0	2	3	0	0	0	368	429	474	902	105	412	14	9	384	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	AA	Hartford Yard Goats	—	56	50	15	2	0	0	3	10	0	0	0	300	340	340	680	40	357	18	5	293	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A+	Spokane Indians	—	404	340	96	17	1	6	60	62	1	4	2	282	392	391	783	109	327	15	15	356	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A	Fresno Grizzlies	—	32	22	8	2	0	1	9	5	0	0	1	364	548	591	1.139	227	412	16	28	483	168	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	INTL	Tiburones de La Guaira	—	30	22	7	1	0	0	5	2	1	0	0	318	464	364	828	45	333	7	17	365	133	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rockies	—	242	211	36	6	0	0	28	40	0	8	4	171	268	199	467	28	203	17	12	220	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Colorado	—	218	190	42	5	1	0	23	27	3	6	3	221	315	258	573	37	259	12	11	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	ACL Rockies	—	243	216	52	7	1	0	23	52	1	11	2	241	317	282	599	42	306	21	9	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	—	323	298	78	9	5	0	18	71	2	7	5	262	308	326	634	64	330	22	6	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	ACL Rockies	—	22	20	6	0	1	0	1	4	0	0	0	300	333	400	733	100	316	18	5	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	AA MLE	Hartford Yard Goats	—	56	51	16	2	0	0	2	12	0	0	0	314	340	353	693	39	356	21	4	294	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	—	404	358	91	15	1	5	42	84	1	4	2	254	334	344	678	89	310	21	10	302	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	—	32	25	8	2	0	1	6	7	0	0	1	320	452	520	972	200	366	22	19	416	168	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rockies	—	242	211	36	6	0	0	28	40	0	8	4	171	268	199	467	28	208	17	12	220	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK RAW	DSL Rockies	—	242	201	50	9	0	0	38	35	0	8	4	249	368	294	662	45	298	14	16	311	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Colorado	—	218	190	42	5	1	0	23	27	3	6	3	221	315	258	573	37	255	12	11	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL Colorado	—	218	180	61	8	2	0	33	23	3	6	3	339	449	406	855	67	384	11	15	389	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	ACL Rockies	—	243	216	52	7	1	0	23	52	1	11	2	241	317	282	599	42	313	21	9	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	ACL Rockies	—	243	200	61	9	1	0	39	36	1	11	2	305	421	360	781	55	367	15	16	359	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A MLE	2 teams	—	345	317	83	9	5	0	20	76	2	7	5	262	310	322	632	60	339	22	6	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A RAW	2 teams	—	345	306	91	11	6	0	31	53	2	7	5	297	366	373	738	75	354	15	9	330	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A+ MLE	4 teams	—	522	458	121	20	1	6	53	109	2	4	3	264	343	352	695	87	329	21	10	309	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A+ RAW	4 teams	—	522	434	126	22	1	7	77	79	2	4	3	290	400	394	794	104	335	15	15	357	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rockies	—	242	212	36	6	0	0	28	40	0	8	4	170	268	198	466	28	203	17	12	220	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Colorado	—	218	190	42	5	1	0	23	27	3	6	3	221	315	258	573	37	259	12	11	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	ACL Rockies	—	243	217	52	7	1	0	23	52	1	11	2	240	317	281	598	41	306	21	9	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A MLE	2 teams	—	345	320	83	9	5	0	20	76	2	7	5	259	310	319	628	59	329	22	6	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A+ MLE	4 teams	—	522	462	121	20	1	6	53	109	2	4	3	262	343	348	692	87	319	21	10	309	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	19	ROK MLE	ACL Rockies	—	243	217	52	7	1	0	23	52	1	11	2	240	317	281	598	41	306	21	9	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A MLE	2 teams	—	345	320	83	9	5	0	20	76	2	7	5	259	310	319	628	59	329	22	6	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A+ MLE	4 teams	—	522	462	121	20	1	6	53	109	2	4	3	262	343	348	692	87	319	21	10	309	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	22	MLB MLE	COL	0%	593	530	125	21	2	6	56	117	2	6	3	235	310	317	627	82	288	20	9	286	80	-14	+0	-1	+6	+13	0.3
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	22	MLB CTX	COL	0%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	246	320	337	657	91	300	0	0	298	80	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	COL	31%	458	410	98	16	2	6	43	89	2	5	2	240	315	336	652	96	289	19	9	296	86	-7	+0	-0	+5	+10	0.8
2029	24	MLB MLE	COL	45%	509	454	111	18	2	9	48	98	2	6	3	243	319	349	668	106	290	19	9	302	91	-6	+0	+1	+5	+11	1.2
2030	25	MLB MLE	COL	54%	538	480	118	20	2	10	51	104	2	7	3	244	320	356	677	112	290	19	9	305	93	-5	+0	+1	+6	+12	1.4
2031	26	MLB MLE	COL	58%	552	492	120	20	2	11	53	108	2	7	3	245	321	360	680	115	290	20	10	307	94	-4	+0	+1	+6	+12	1.5
2032	27	MLB MLE	COL	59%	556	496	120	20	2	11	53	110	2	7	4	244	320	360	679	116	290	20	10	306	93	-4	-0	+1	+6	+12	1.4
2033	28	MLB MLE	COL	60%	551	492	118	20	2	10	52	110	2	6	4	242	318	355	673	113	289	20	9	304	92	-5	-0	-0	+6	+12	1.2
2034	29	MLB MLE	COL	59%	541	483	117	20	2	10	51	110	2	4	4	240	315	349	664	109	288	20	9	300	89	-7	-1	-1	+6	+12	0.9
2035	30	MLB MLE	COL	59%	528	471	112	19	2	9	50	109	2	3	4	237	312	342	653	105	287	21	9	296	86	-9	-1	-1	+6	+11	0.6
2036	31	MLB MLE	COL	58%	511	457	107	18	2	8	47	107	2	3	4	233	307	332	639	99	284	21	9	290	82	-11	-1	-2	+5	+11	0.3
2037	32	MLB MLE	COL	58%	489	440	99	16	1	7	45	105	1	1	7	228	301	320	621	92	281	21	9	283	77	-13	-3	-3	+5	+11	-0.3
2028	23	MLB CTX	COL	31%	144	129	32	5	1	2	14	28	0	2	1	251	325	359	684	108	302	19	10	309	86	-2	+0	-0	+2	+3	0.2
2029	24	MLB CTX	COL	45%	231	206	52	9	1	4	22	45	1	3	1	255	329	373	703	119	303	19	10	316	91	-3	+0	+0	+2	+5	0.5
2030	25	MLB CTX	COL	54%	288	257	66	11	2	6	28	56	1	4	2	256	331	382	713	125	303	19	10	320	93	-2	+0	+0	+3	+6	0.7
2031	26	MLB CTX	COL	58%	321	286	73	12	2	7	31	63	1	4	2	257	331	385	717	129	303	20	10	321	94	-2	+0	+0	+3	+7	0.9
2032	27	MLB CTX	COL	59%	330	295	76	13	2	7	31	65	1	4	2	256	330	385	716	130	303	20	9	321	93	-3	+0	+0	+4	+7	0.9
2033	28	MLB CTX	COL	60%	331	296	76	13	2	7	31	66	1	3	2	254	328	380	708	126	302	20	9	318	92	-3	-0	-0	+4	+7	0.7
2034	29	MLB CTX	COL	59%	320	286	73	12	2	7	30	65	1	3	2	251	325	373	699	122	301	20	9	314	89	-4	-0	-0	+3	+7	0.6
2035	30	MLB CTX	COL	59%	309	276	69	11	2	6	29	64	1	2	2	248	322	365	687	117	299	21	9	309	86	-5	-0	-1	+3	+7	0.4
2036	31	MLB CTX	COL	58%	297	266	64	11	1	5	28	62	1	2	2	244	317	354	671	111	297	21	9	303	82	-6	-0	-1	+3	+6	0.2
2037	32	MLB CTX	COL	58%	283	254	61	10	1	5	26	61	1	1	4	238	311	341	652	103	293	22	9	295	77	-8	-1	-2	+3	+6	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2854	2551	642	107	16	56	270	575	9	28	20	252	325	372	697	120	303	20	9	313	85	-39	-2	-3	+31	+62	5.0
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	581	146	24	4	13	61	131	2	6	5	251	324	373	698	122	302	20	9	313	85	-9	-1	-1	+7	+14	1.1
Career	—	MLE		—	7013	6254	1498	241	28	99	660	1395	28	87	56	240	315	335	649	95	291	20	9	294	85	-76	-5	-5	+58	+118	9.2
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	580	139	22	3	9	61	129	3	8	5	240	315	334	650	95	291	20	9	294	85	-9	-1	-1	+7	+14	1.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Spokane Indians · 404 PAwOBA .348 → .302 (−46)K% 15.3% → 20.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.35%	÷1.000	×1.350	—	—	20.72%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.36%	÷1.000	×0.710	—	×1.012	10.32%
HBP% /PA	0.25%	—	×0.810	—	×1.012	0.20%
Singles /BIP	25.90%	÷1.000	×0.910	×1.050	×1.012	25.04%
Doubles /BIP	6.12%	÷1.000	×0.830	×1.050	×1.012	5.39%
Triples /BIP	0.36%	÷1.000	×0.820	×1.050	×1.012	0.31%
Home runs /BIP	2.16%	÷1.000	×0.830	—	×1.012	1.81%

Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .348 → .302; ISO .109 → .094; BABIP .327 → .310. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAHartford Yard Goats · 56 PAwOBA .296 → .294 (−3)K% 17.9% → 21.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.86%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	21.79%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.36%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×1.042	3.91%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.850	—	×1.042	0.00%
Singles /BIP	32.50%	÷1.000	×0.970	—	×1.042	32.85%
Doubles /BIP	5.00%	÷1.000	×0.860	—	×1.042	4.48%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.950	—	×1.042	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×1.042	0.00%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .296 → .294; ISO .040 → .037; BABIP .357 → .356. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AFresno Grizzlies · 32 PAwOBA .487 → .416 (−71)K% 15.6% → 21.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.62%	÷1.000	×1.360	—	—	21.25%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	28.12%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	—	19.41%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.780	—	—	0.00%
Singles /BIP	29.41%	÷1.000	×0.920	—	—	27.06%
Doubles /BIP	11.76%	÷1.000	×0.830	—	—	9.76%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.910	—	—	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	5.88%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	—	4.71%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .487 → .416; ISO .227 → .206; BABIP .412 → .366. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AFresno Grizzlies · 323 PAwOBA .321 → .277 (−45)K% 15.5% → 22.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.48%	÷0.951	×1.360	—	—	22.13%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.98%	÷1.096	×0.690	—	×1.015	5.74%
HBP% /PA	0.62%	—	×0.780	—	×1.015	0.49%
Singles /BIP	28.69%	÷1.022	×0.920	×1.050	×1.015	27.53%
Doubles /BIP	4.64%	÷1.055	×0.830	×1.050	×1.015	3.89%
Triples /BIP	2.11%	÷1.017	×0.910	×1.050	×1.015	2.01%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.870	×0.800	—	×1.015	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 74, 1B 104, 2B 111, 3B 103, K 90, BB 119 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .321 → .277; ISO .073 → .064; BABIP .350 → .330. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKACL Rockies · 22 PAwOBA .392 → .292 (−100)K% 13.6% → 19.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.64%	÷0.993	×1.440	—	—	19.78%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.09%	÷0.987	×0.620	—	×0.985	5.63%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.720	—	×0.985	0.00%
Singles /BIP	37.50%	÷1.021	×0.820	—	×0.985	29.66%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷0.991	×0.720	—	×0.985	0.00%
Triples /BIP	6.25%	÷1.150	×0.720	—	×0.985	3.85%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.970	×0.780	—	×0.985	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 104, 2B 98, 3B 130, K 99, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .392 → .292; ISO .105 → .067; BABIP .412 → .316. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKACL Rockies · 243 PAwOBA .354 → .269 (−85)K% 14.8% → 21.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	14.81%	÷0.991	×1.440	—	—	21.53%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	16.05%	÷1.035	×0.620	—	×0.995	9.56%
HBP% /PA	0.41%	—	×0.720	—	×0.995	0.29%
Singles /BIP	31.10%	÷1.003	×0.820	×1.050	×0.995	26.55%
Doubles /BIP	5.49%	÷1.034	×0.720	×1.050	×0.995	3.99%
Triples /BIP	0.61%	÷1.150	×0.720	×1.050	×0.995	0.40%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.044	×0.780	—	×0.995	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 109, 1B 101, 2B 107, 3B 130, K 98, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .354 → .269; ISO .055 → .040; BABIP .367 → .306. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 DSLDSL Colorado · 218 PAwOBA .382 → .272 (−110)K% 10.6% → 12.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	10.55%	÷1.030	×1.220	—	—	12.49%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.68%	÷0.967	×0.700	—	×0.995	10.58%
HBP% /PA	1.38%	—	×0.700	—	×0.995	0.96%
Singles /BIP	32.48%	÷1.049	×0.680	×1.050	×0.995	21.99%
Doubles /BIP	5.10%	÷0.968	×0.600	×1.050	×0.995	3.30%
Triples /BIP	1.27%	÷0.900	×0.600	×1.050	×0.995	0.89%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.146	×0.470	—	×0.995	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 129, 1B 110, 2B 94, 3B 80, K 106, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 18.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .382 → .272; ISO .067 → .047; BABIP .384 → .259. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 DSLDSL Rockies · 242 PAwOBA .306 → .220 (−86)K% 14.5% → 16.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	14.46%	÷1.070	×1.220	—	—	16.49%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	15.70%	÷0.968	×0.700	—	×1.008	11.44%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.700	—	×1.008	0.00%
Singles /BIP	24.70%	÷1.043	×0.680	×1.050	×1.008	17.04%
Doubles /BIP	5.42%	÷0.990	×0.600	×1.050	×1.008	3.48%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.600	×1.050	×1.008	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.233	×0.470	—	×1.008	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 147, 1B 109, 2B 98, 3B 80, K 114, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .306 → .220; ISO .045 → .030; BABIP .298 → .203. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Spike Owen'83-'95 * career totals — 13 seasons, 5,615 PA	8.5	5,615	46	82	242*	322*	356*	+55	+30	15.6	15.3
/162	664	5	10	+6.5	+3.6	1.8	pk7: 15
#2Zack Cozartlast yr '19 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,350 PA	5.0	3,350	85	21	246	300	398	+33	+38	14.2	14.8
/162	664	17	4	+6.6	+7.6	2.8	pk7: 15
#3Mike Bordick'90-'03 * career totals — 13 seasons, 6,484 PA	9.8	6,484	91	96	250*	311*	357*	+65	-10	12.7	14.0
/162	664	9	10	+6.7	-1.0	1.3	pk7: 15
#4Khalil Greenelast yr '09 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,835 PA	4.3	2,835	90	25	245	302	422	+30	+14	13.0	13.0
/162	664	21	6	+7.1	+3.2	3.0	pk7: 13
#5Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	4.3	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
/162	664	15	8	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#6Kevin Stocker'93-'00 * career totals — 8 seasons, 3,197 PA	4.8	3,197	23	45	241*	324*	337*	+34	+8	6.4	6.5
/162	664	5	9	+7.1	+1.8	1.3	pk7: 7
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	4.3	2,857	50	27	241	312	348	+31	+6	6.7	6.3
/162	664	12	6	+7.1	+1.3	1.6	pk7: 6

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Roynier Hernandez (OGILVIE)	22	—	—	—	—	233/308/314	81	288	2	2	20%	9%	80	-0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Noah Mendlinger 2023 · A	22	49→59	37→30	47→45	55	228/324/304	75	281	4	9	19%	10%	84	+0.1	257/342/331	74	304	3	8	15%	8%	97	+1.1	269/354/337	68	315	2	8	14%	8%	100	+1.0
✕Tucker Barnhart 2013 · AA	22	48→53	39→45	42→40	47	228/287/316	89	292	5	4	23%	8%	72	-0.7	230/288/308	78	280	5	3	18%	7%	70	-0.8	241/315/366	125	285	12	2	19%	9%	93	+0.6
●Justin Yurchak 2019 · A	22	49→59	39→40	41→40	51	234/299/318	84	286	6	2	20%	9%	77	-0.3	247/306/351	104	315	8	3	23%	8%	87	+0.4	272/336/375	103	335	10	2	20%	8%	101	+0.8
✕Greg Garcia 2012 · A	22	49→55	39→40	45→50	47	232/301/322	90	293	5	8	21%	7%	79	-0.2	245/322/341	96	314	6	10	22%	8%	91	+0.7	240/347/331	91	307	6	3	21%	12%	100	+0.7
✕Marcus Lemon 2010 · AA	22	53→55	38→40	45	47	248/302/336	88	302	4	8	19%	6%	82	-0.0	245/287/324	79	301	3	8	19%	5%	73	-0.6	252/292/329	78	309	3	9	19%	5%	72	-0.5
✕Luke Shliger 2024 · A	22	48	39→40	47→50	46	228/295/315	87	300	6	9	25%	7%	75	-0.5	216/309/312	96	303	8	12	28%	10%	80	-0.1	213/312/314	101	295	10	14	28%	11%	82	-0.0
✕Noe Becerra 2008 · AAA	21	49	40→30	46→40	50	234/302/332	98	282	7	8	19%	8%	81	-0.1	215/279/296	81	275	7	8	23%	8%	64	-1.3	235/291/274	39	289	1	1	18%	7%	62	-0.4
✕Anthony Dimino 2017 · A	23	50	36→40	48→50	50	233/300/299	66	295	3	9	21%	8%	73	-0.6	240/299/308	68	305	3	13	21%	7%	74	-0.5	249/306/310	61	313	3	17	20%	7%	74	-0.2
✕Scott Campbell 2008 · A	23	50→59	41→40	43→40	54	237/313/336	98	278	8	5	17%	9%	86	+0.3	256/323/350	94	299	8	5	16%	9%	93	+0.8	268/336/357	88	309	7	3	15%	9%	97	+0.8
✕Luis Santana 2021 · AA	22	50	39→45	48→50	48	238/309/327	89	284	6	8	18%	7%	83	+0.1	215/273/337	122	282	13	9	28%	6%	72	-0.7	214/269/345	131	274	15	8	27%	5%	69	-0.5
✕Matt Cerda 2012 · A	22	53→56	37→40	41→40	54	247/322/326	79	307	3	4	19%	10%	87	+0.4	230/316/308	78	297	4	7	22%	11%	81	-0.1	220/319/282	63	283	4	7	21%	13%	74	-0.4
✕Rio Ruiz 2016 · AA	22	50→54	42→50	42→40	51	238/307/347	109	301	8	4	23%	9%	86	+0.3	235/295/353	118	305	11	3	25%	8%	83	+0.1	220/284/360	140	261	16	3	22%	8%	82	-0.0
✕Rossmel Perez 2012 · A	22	53→56	37→30	43→45	52	250/306/313	63	282	5	5	13%	7%	78	-0.3	251/307/313	62	276	4	6	10%	7%	78	-0.3	266/319/325	59	287	3	5	8%	6%	83	+0.1
✕Richi Sanchez 2015 · A	21	46	36→40	48→50	56	213/303/284	71	267	3	8	20%	11%	72	-0.7	201/263/273	72	258	3	7	22%	7%	53	-2.1	170/226/236	67	206	0	6	17%	6%	28	-0.9
✕Miles Mastrobuoni 2019 · AA	23	49→57	36→45	45→60	50	230/297/297	67	299	3	11	23%	9%	71	-0.8	246/302/327	81	327	5	12	24%	8%	79	-0.2	253/317/360	108	325	8	21	23%	8%	89	+0.4
✕Casey Turgeon 2015 · A	22	48	40	47→45	53	228/307/326	97	275	7	7	19%	9%	82	+0.0	206/292/290	84	261	5	7	21%	10%	69	-0.9	191/283/271	80	243	6	7	22%	10%	60	-0.8
✕Jacob Gonzalez 2024 · A	22	44→45	38→45	46→50	51	208/290/285	76	270	6	6	24%	9%	67	-1.1	218/275/329	111	256	11	12	19%	6%	71	-0.8	220/279/347	127	253	14	13	19%	6%	75	-0.4
✕Cam Maron 2014 · A	23	50→58	37→40	47→40	50	235/306/312	77	303	4	3	22%	9%	78	-0.3	236/304/309	73	307	4	3	22%	9%	76	-0.4	247/317/312	65	316	4	2	21%	9%	79	-0.1
✕Reese McGuire 2018 · AA	23	52→54	39→45	44→45	50	248/301/338	90	281	6	9	14%	7%	82	-0.0	231/287/349	118	281	12	7	22%	7%	80	-0.2	245/296/356	111	296	9	3	20%	6%	85	+0.1
✕Peter Ciofrone 2006 · A	22	52→55	39→45	50→40	50	248/314/334	86	292	6	6	17%	7%	86	+0.3	243/310/349	106	289	10	4	19%	7%	88	+0.5	243/311/359	116	285	12	2	19%	7%	89	+0.4

Roynier Hernandez

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps