Jorge Burgos

CF New Hampshire Fisher Cats

Age 24 L/L 5'10" / 165 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2036

OGV OFP35OGV rank#2369ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	21	AA/A+CLE	365	.215/.292/.428	18	5	45	—	.168/.228/.312
2025	22	AACLE	407	.206/.299/.386	14	2	55	—	.175/.251/.326
2026	23	AATOR	292	.268/.356/.437	7	2	87	—	.238/.301/.377
2027PROJMLE	24	MLBTOR	3	.208/.274/.349	0	0	74	-0.0
2028PROJ31% MLB	25	MLBTOR	65	.211/.278/.358	2	1	78	0.0
2029PROJ45% MLB	26	MLBTOR	117	.213/.281/.362	3	1	80	0.0

Next 3 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Arb-1$0.2M2034Ext$5M+1

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AA

K%86

Whiff%81

Z-Con%75

wRC+66

wOBA63

ISO63

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.0 / P90 1.2, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 89%

CompsJason Vosler (age 24) · Michael Burgess (age 24) · Eric Duncan (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†74

AVG/OBP/SLG.208 / .274 / .349

PA3

HR0

K%33

BB%8

BABIP260

ISO135

MLB%2%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$3M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 35 / POW 50

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT35

scouting grade only

POWER50

scouting grade only

EYE45

scouting grade only

SPEED45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Arb-1	$0.2M	—	—	—
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.8M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2019	16	ROK	DSL Indians	—	227	196	54	16	5	0	27	47	3	10	3	276	372	408	780	133	362	21	12	350	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	18	A	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	100	92	27	5	3	1	8	19	0	2	1	293	350	446	796	152	361	19	8	352	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	18	ROK	ACL Indians	—	123	102	36	11	0	0	18	26	3	4	1	353	463	461	924	108	474	21	15	419	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	A	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	459	396	110	18	3	6	56	85	3	6	2	278	371	384	755	106	337	19	12	342	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A+	Lake County Captains	—	370	323	77	15	1	7	42	84	3	0	3	238	332	356	688	118	299	23	11	313	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	AA	Akron RubberDucks	—	60	55	7	1	0	3	5	23	0	0	0	127	200	309	509	182	138	38	8	229	2	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A+	Lake County Captains	—	305	270	63	14	0	15	25	84	5	5	0	233	310	452	762	219	273	28	8	331	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	AA	Akron RubberDucks	—	407	355	73	16	3	14	43	95	4	2	1	206	299	386	684	180	235	23	11	304	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AA	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	292	254	68	20	1	7	34	51	1	2	2	268	356	437	793	169	308	17	12	351	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2019	16	ROK MLE	DSL Indians	—	227	204	34	9	3	0	19	57	3	10	3	167	248	240	488	74	228	25	8	221	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	18	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	100	94	24	4	2	1	6	26	0	2	1	255	300	372	672	117	348	26	6	296	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	18	ROK MLE	ACL Indians	—	123	109	29	7	0	0	11	38	3	4	1	266	350	330	680	64	405	31	9	303	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	459	411	102	16	2	5	41	118	3	6	2	248	321	333	654	85	326	26	9	290	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	—	370	334	69	14	1	5	31	104	3	0	3	207	280	299	579	93	277	28	8	259	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	AA MLE	Akron RubberDucks	—	60	56	6	1	0	2	4	29	0	0	0	107	167	232	399	125	136	48	7	171	2	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	—	305	278	50	11	0	10	17	104	5	5	0	180	240	327	567	147	230	34	6	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	AA MLE	Akron RubberDucks	—	407	365	64	13	3	12	33	122	4	2	1	175	251	326	577	151	214	30	8	250	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	292	265	63	17	1	6	23	62	1	2	2	238	301	377	678	140	287	21	8	297	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	16	ROK MLE	DSL Indians	—	227	204	34	9	3	0	19	57	3	10	3	167	248	240	488	74	231	25	8	221	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	16	ROK RAW	DSL Indians	—	227	196	54	16	5	0	27	47	3	10	3	276	372	408	780	133	362	21	12	350	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	18	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	223	204	53	12	2	1	16	64	3	6	2	260	323	353	676	93	374	29	7	300	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	2 teams	—	223	194	63	16	3	1	26	45	3	6	2	325	413	454	866	129	419	20	12	389	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	459	411	102	16	2	5	41	118	3	6	2	248	321	333	654	85	332	26	9	290	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	A RAW	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	459	396	110	18	3	6	56	85	3	6	2	278	371	384	755	106	337	19	12	342	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	—	370	334	69	14	1	5	31	104	3	0	3	207	280	299	579	93	282	28	8	259	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A+ RAW	Lake County Captains	—	370	323	77	15	1	7	42	84	3	0	3	238	332	356	688	118	299	23	11	313	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	365	334	56	12	0	12	21	133	5	5	0	168	228	311	539	144	227	36	6	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	365	325	70	15	0	18	30	107	5	5	0	215	292	428	719	212	254	29	8	315	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	AA MLE	Akron RubberDucks	—	407	365	64	13	3	12	33	122	4	2	1	175	251	326	577	151	220	30	8	250	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	AA RAW	Akron RubberDucks	—	407	355	73	16	3	14	43	95	4	2	1	206	299	386	684	180	235	23	11	304	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	292	265	63	17	1	6	23	62	1	2	2	238	301	377	678	140	286	21	8	297	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AA RAW	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	292	254	68	20	1	7	34	51	1	2	2	268	356	437	793	169	308	17	12	351	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	16	ROK MLE	DSL Indians	—	227	203	34	9	3	0	19	57	3	10	3	167	248	241	489	74	228	25	8	221	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	18	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	223	202	53	12	2	1	16	64	3	6	2	262	323	356	679	94	379	29	7	300	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	459	412	102	16	2	5	41	118	3	6	2	248	321	333	653	85	326	26	9	290	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	—	370	333	69	14	1	5	31	104	3	0	3	207	280	300	580	93	277	28	8	259	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	365	336	56	12	0	12	21	133	5	5	0	167	228	310	537	143	215	36	6	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	AA MLE	Akron RubberDucks	—	407	367	64	13	3	12	33	122	4	2	1	174	251	324	575	150	214	30	8	250	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	292	266	63	17	1	6	23	62	1	2	2	237	301	376	677	139	287	21	8	297	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	21	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	365	336	56	12	0	12	21	133	5	5	0	167	228	310	537	143	215	36	6	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	AA MLE	Akron RubberDucks	—	407	367	64	13	3	12	33	122	4	2	1	174	251	324	575	150	214	30	8	250	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	292	266	63	17	1	6	23	62	1	2	2	237	301	376	677	139	287	21	8	297	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	24	MLB MLE	TOR	2%	342	311	64	15	1	9	26	89	2	3	1	207	274	349	622	141	259	26	8	278	74	-10	+0	+0	+1	+7	0.0
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	24	MLB CTX	TOR	2%	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	208	274	349	624	141	260	33	0	279	74	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	TOR	31%	211	191	41	9	1	6	16	54	2	2	1	211	278	357	634	146	261	26	8	283	78	-6	+0	+0	+1	+5	-0.0
2029	26	MLB MLE	TOR	45%	263	239	50	11	1	7	20	67	2	2	1	213	280	361	641	148	262	25	8	286	80	-6	+0	+0	+1	+6	0.0
2030	27	MLB MLE	TOR	49%	290	263	56	13	1	8	23	74	2	2	1	213	281	361	642	148	263	26	8	287	80	-7	+0	+0	+1	+6	0.0
2031	28	MLB MLE	TOR	52%	305	276	58	13	1	8	24	78	2	2	2	213	282	359	641	146	264	26	8	286	80	-7	-0	-1	+1	+7	-0.1
2032	29	MLB MLE	TOR	52%	303	274	58	13	1	8	24	78	2	2	2	213	281	356	637	143	264	26	8	285	79	-8	-0	-1	+1	+7	-0.2
2033	30	MLB MLE	TOR	52%	300	272	58	13	1	8	23	78	2	2	3	210	277	348	626	138	263	26	8	280	76	-9	-1	-2	+1	+6	-0.4
2028	25	MLB CTX	TOR	31%	65	60	13	3	0	2	5	17	0	1	0	211	278	358	636	146	261	26	8	284	78	-2	+0	+0	+0	+1	0.0
2029	26	MLB CTX	TOR	45%	117	106	23	5	1	3	9	30	1	1	0	213	281	362	643	148	263	26	8	287	80	-3	+0	+0	+0	+3	0.0
2030	27	MLB CTX	TOR	49%	143	130	28	6	1	4	11	37	1	1	1	214	282	362	644	148	264	26	8	287	80	-3	-0	+0	+1	+3	0.0
2031	28	MLB CTX	TOR	52%	157	143	31	7	1	4	12	40	1	1	1	214	282	360	642	146	265	25	8	287	80	-4	-0	-0	+1	+3	-0.0
2032	29	MLB CTX	TOR	52%	156	142	31	7	1	4	12	40	1	1	1	213	281	357	638	143	265	26	8	285	79	-4	-0	-1	+1	+3	-0.1
2033	30	MLB CTX	TOR	52%	155	141	31	7	1	4	12	40	1	1	2	211	278	349	627	139	263	26	8	281	76	-4	-1	-1	+1	+3	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	793	722	157	35	5	21	61	204	5	6	5	217	283	367	650	150	271	26	8	285	71	-20	-1	-2	+3	+17	-0.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	592	129	29	4	17	50	167	4	5	4	218	283	367	650	149	272	26	8	285	71	-16	-1	-2	+2	+14	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		—	4187	3788	794	172	19	90	327	1134	35	44	24	210	279	336	615	127	272	27	8	273	71	-48	-2	-4	+7	+40	-0.7
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	588	124	27	3	14	51	176	5	7	4	211	279	338	618	128	274	27	8	273	71	-17	-1	-1	+2	+14	-0.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats · 292 PAwOBA .343 → .297 (−46)K% 17.5% → 21.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.47%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	21.31%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.30%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×1.012	8.01%
HBP% /PA	0.34%	—	×0.850	—	×1.012	0.29%
Singles /BIP	19.70%	÷1.000	×0.970	×0.992	×1.012	19.19%
Doubles /BIP	9.85%	÷1.000	×0.860	×0.992	×1.012	8.51%
Triples /BIP	0.49%	÷1.000	×0.950	×0.992	×1.012	0.47%
Home runs /BIP	3.45%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×1.012	2.72%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.992.

Result: wOBA .343 → .297; ISO .169 → .143; BABIP .308 → .287. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAkron RubberDucks · 407 PAwOBA .300 → .250 (−49)K% 23.3% → 30.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.34%	÷0.948	×1.220	—	—	30.04%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.57%	÷0.953	×0.700	—	×1.027	7.97%
HBP% /PA	0.98%	—	×0.850	—	×1.027	0.86%
Singles /BIP	15.38%	÷1.004	×0.970	×0.950	×1.027	14.50%
Doubles /BIP	6.15%	÷0.986	×0.860	×0.950	×1.027	5.24%
Triples /BIP	1.15%	÷0.935	×0.950	×0.950	×1.027	1.14%
Home runs /BIP	5.38%	÷0.926	×0.780	—	×1.027	4.66%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 101, 2B 97, 3B 87, K 90, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .300 → .250; ISO .180 → .151; BABIP .235 → .214. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Lake County Captains · 305 PAwOBA .326 → .247 (−79)K% 27.5% → 34.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	27.54%	÷1.023	×1.270	—	—	34.18%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.87%	÷0.999	×0.710	—	×1.012	5.66%
HBP% /PA	1.64%	—	×0.790	—	×1.012	1.31%
Singles /BIP	18.28%	÷0.995	×0.920	×0.957	×1.012	16.38%
Doubles /BIP	7.53%	÷0.978	×0.810	×0.957	×1.012	6.04%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.023	×0.850	×0.957	×1.012	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	8.06%	÷1.190	×0.800	—	×1.012	5.49%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 138, 1B 99, 2B 96, 3B 105, K 105, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.957.

Result: wOBA .326 → .247; ISO .219 → .150; BABIP .273 → .230. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAkron RubberDucks · 60 PAwOBA .222 → .171 (−51)K% 38.3% → 47.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	38.33%	÷0.980	×1.220	—	—	47.73%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.33%	÷0.987	×0.700	—	×1.042	6.16%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.850	—	×1.042	0.00%
Singles /BIP	9.38%	÷0.993	×0.970	—	×1.042	9.54%
Doubles /BIP	3.12%	÷0.944	×0.860	—	×1.042	2.97%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.023	×0.950	—	×1.042	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	9.38%	÷0.966	×0.780	—	×1.042	7.89%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 99, 2B 89, 3B 105, K 96, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .222 → .171; ISO .182 → .134; BABIP .138 → .136. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Lake County Captains · 370 PAwOBA .307 → .259 (−48)K% 22.7% → 28.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.70%	÷1.028	×1.270	—	—	28.06%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.35%	÷0.971	×0.710	—	×1.027	8.52%
HBP% /PA	0.81%	—	×0.790	—	×1.027	0.66%
Singles /BIP	22.59%	÷1.011	×0.920	×1.004	×1.027	21.20%
Doubles /BIP	6.28%	÷0.900	×0.810	×1.004	×1.027	5.82%
Triples /BIP	0.42%	÷1.150	×0.850	×1.004	×1.027	0.32%
Home runs /BIP	2.93%	÷1.060	×0.800	—	×1.027	2.27%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 102, 2B 80, 3B 130, K 106, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.004.

Result: wOBA .307 → .259; ISO .118 → .095; BABIP .299 → .277. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ALynchburg Hillcats · 459 PAwOBA .336 → .290 (−46)K% 18.5% → 25.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.52%	÷0.981	×1.360	—	—	25.66%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.20%	÷0.973	×0.690	—	×1.030	8.91%
HBP% /PA	0.65%	—	×0.780	—	×1.030	0.53%
Singles /BIP	26.69%	÷0.988	×0.920	×1.030	×1.030	26.37%
Doubles /BIP	5.79%	÷0.955	×0.830	×1.030	×1.030	5.34%
Triples /BIP	0.96%	÷1.150	×0.910	×1.030	×1.030	0.81%
Home runs /BIP	1.93%	÷1.015	×0.800	—	×1.030	1.57%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 98, 2B 91, 3B 130, K 96, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.030.

Result: wOBA .336 → .290; ISO .106 → .088; BABIP .337 → .326. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ROKACL Indians · 123 PAwOBA .409 → .303 (−106)K% 21.1% → 31.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.14%	÷0.978	×1.440	—	—	31.13%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.63%	÷1.050	×0.620	—	×1.008	8.71%
HBP% /PA	2.44%	—	×0.720	—	×1.008	1.77%
Singles /BIP	32.89%	÷0.948	×0.820	×1.050	×1.008	30.10%
Doubles /BIP	14.47%	÷1.065	×0.720	×1.050	×1.008	10.35%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.990	×0.720	×1.050	×1.008	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.488	×0.780	—	×1.008	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 198, 1B 90, 2B 113, 3B 98, K 96, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .409 → .303; ISO .108 → .073; BABIP .474 → .405. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ALynchburg Hillcats · 100 PAwOBA .343 → .296 (−47)K% 19.0% → 25.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.00%	÷1.008	×1.360	—	—	25.64%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.00%	÷1.024	×0.690	—	×1.045	5.63%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.780	—	×1.045	0.00%
Singles /BIP	24.66%	÷1.014	×0.920	×1.050	×1.045	24.54%
Doubles /BIP	6.85%	÷0.988	×0.830	×1.050	×1.045	6.31%
Triples /BIP	4.11%	÷1.150	×0.910	×1.050	×1.045	3.57%
Home runs /BIP	1.37%	÷0.950	×0.800	—	×1.045	1.20%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 103, 2B 98, 3B 130, K 102, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .343 → .296; ISO .152 → .127; BABIP .361 → .348. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#2Ruben Rivera'95-'03 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,818 PA	2.7	1,818	64	50	206*	292*	376*	-1	+20	4.0	4.0
/162	664	23	18	-0.3	+7.2	1.5	pk7: 4
#3Garrett Hampsonlast yr '25 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,805 PA	2.7	1,805	29	65	234	296	352	+10	+10	3.9	3.9
/162	664	11	24	+3.6	+3.7	1.4	pk7: 4
#4Guillermo Heredialast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,530 PA	2.3	1,530	25	6	231	311	345	+3	+17	3.5	3.5
/162	664	11	3	+1.2	+7.6	1.5	pk7: 3
#5Damon Buford'93-'01 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,072 PA	3.1	2,072	54	56	230*	296*	371*	-1	-2	0.2	0.8
/162	664	17	18	-0.4	-0.5	0.1	pk7: 1
#6Rick Bosetti'76-'82 * career totals — 5 seasons, 1,656 PA	2.5	1,656	17	30	243*	286*	358*	+3	+16	0.6	0.6
/162	664	7	12	+1.4	+6.5	0.2	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	1.2	797	21	6	213	278	358	+3	+8	0.3	0.3
/162	664	18	5	+2.4	+6.2	0.3	pk7: 0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jorge Burgos (OGILVIE)	24	35	50	45	45	206/272/346	140	259	4	1	26%	8%	74	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jason Vosler 2018 · AA	24	41→44	46→55	41→40	44	207/273/335	128	257	14	3	25%	6%	72	-0.7	211/272/370	159	286	20	3	32%	7%	80	-0.1	215/279/377	162	266	21	3	27%	7%	82	-0.0
✕Michael Burgess 2013 · AA	24	42→43	47→50	47→45	46	215/280/353	139	271	15	3	26%	8%	79	-0.2	209/255/351	142	267	14	4	27%	5%	68	-1.0	201/240/358	157	254	16	3	28%	4%	64	-0.8
✕Eric Duncan 2009 · AAA	24	43→44	45→50	43→45	43	215/267/338	122	268	13	5	25%	6%	70	-0.9	209/248/321	112	269	12	6	26%	5%	59	-1.7	214/252/344	129	272	15	5	27%	4%	64	-0.8
✕John Whittleman 2012 · AA	25	35→45	48→50	43→45	48	188/265/330	143	245	16	3	30%	10%	68	-1.0	198/284/348	150	285	17	5	34%	11%	80	-0.2	169/278/326	156	244	18	1	36%	13%	72	-0.5
✕Aaron Bracho 2024 · AA	23	37→40	48→45	44→40	43	195/265/332	137	267	17	4	33%	8%	69	-0.9	203/262/322	119	263	14	6	27%	7%	65	-1.2	185/241/286	101	234	12	5	26%	6%	47	-1.2
✕Sean Coughlin 2009 · A	24	38→37	46→50	44→30	46	198/269/329	131	247	14	2	26%	8%	70	-0.9	219/286/343	124	265	14	3	22%	8%	78	-0.3	221/290/340	119	260	14	1	20%	8%	78	-0.1
✕Christopher Familia 2023 · A	23	38	45→55	47→45	46	195/271/314	120	240	13	8	25%	7%	68	-1.0	215/270/381	166	280	21	4	31%	6%	82	-0.0	212/261/402	190	265	27	0	32%	5%	79	-0.1
✕Cody Morissette 2024 · AA	24	35→31	46→45	44→55	40	187/242/313	126	243	15	5	30%	6%	55	-1.9	190/243/309	119	252	13	15	29%	6%	55	-2.0	184/241/305	121	240	14	19	29%	6%	51	-1.4
✕Tommy Giles 2008 · AA	24	42→40	48→55	43→40	38	214/256/355	142	281	15	9	30%	5%	70	-0.9	218/275/381	163	284	20	5	29%	7%	83	+0.1	208/270/375	166	264	21	3	29%	7%	78	-0.1
✕Jose Brizuela 2017 · A	24	40→39	47→50	43→45	42	204/266/337	133	281	15	5	32%	7%	70	-0.9	209/261/319	110	293	12	5	31%	6%	63	-1.3	162/194/237	75	208	11	0	28%	4%	16	-1.0
✕Agustin Ruiz 2023 · AA	23	37	48→50	46→40	41	194/265/333	138	266	17	5	33%	7%	69	-0.9	185/257/315	130	260	15	4	34%	7%	61	-1.5	162/236/289	126	226	15	1	35%	6%	48	-1.5
✕Braden Shewmake 2022 · AA	24	42→41	47→50	49→55	39	218/255/357	138	268	15	9	25%	4%	70	-0.9	213/256/337	124	263	13	17	24%	5%	65	-1.2	202/248/319	116	246	11	23	23%	5%	56	-1.0
✕Daniel Vellojin 2024 · AA	24	39	43→45	45	49	192/277/302	110	267	11	6	30%	10%	66	-1.1	177/253/266	89	250	8	6	31%	8%	49	-2.4	150/230/223	73	210	7	4	31%	8%	29	-1.4
✕Cole Armstrong 2008 · AA	24	42→36	44→50	42→30	39	211/251/325	115	275	12	3	28%	5%	61	-1.5	226/262/350	124	275	13	2	23%	4%	70	-0.8	225/276/353	128	269	16	1	22%	6%	75	-0.2
✕Randy Florentino 2024 · AA	24	38	41→45	47→45	44	190/248/278	88	248	9	6	27%	7%	49	-2.4	205/250/297	92	273	8	7	26%	5%	53	-2.1	186/208/257	71	254	3	3	28%	2%	24	-1.0
✕Tristan Gray 2021 · AA	25	39→36	49→50	37→40	46	204/272/353	148	253	16	5	26%	8%	76	-0.4	196/250/344	148	275	18	5	35%	6%	65	-1.2	197/252/324	127	261	14	3	29%	6%	61	-1.0
✕Frankie Tostado 2022 · AA	24	43→42	48→50	50→40	38	221/259/359	137	283	16	3	28%	5%	72	-0.7	229/269/356	127	286	14	5	25%	5%	74	-0.5	226/268/344	118	276	14	3	23%	5%	68	-0.7
✕Chris Edmondson 2012 · A	24	41→43	47→50	48→45	43	209/267/353	144	257	14	6	25%	6%	74	-0.6	213/262/327	114	271	11	9	25%	5%	65	-1.2	212/259/311	99	264	11	8	23%	4%	57	-1.5
✕Alexander Ovalles 2023 · AA	22	43→41	47→50	46→50	45	217/281/349	132	278	14	8	27%	7%	78	-0.3	214/279/323	109	308	11	11	32%	8%	71	-0.8	177/255/227	50	295	4	15	38%	10%	36	-0.7
✕Joe DeCarlo 2019 · AA	25	39→38	49→50	44→30	42	204/278/352	148	275	17	3	32%	7%	78	-0.3	190/258/283	93	284	9	4	34%	7%	54	-2.0	150/218/193	43	239	5	0	37%	7%	17	-1.5

Jorge Burgos

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps