Kelvin Alcantara

Kelvin AlcantaraOF ACL Mariners

Age 20 L/L 6'0" / 165 lbs ROK HR -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 ROS PROJECTION196 act + 130 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†73

AVG/OBP/SLG.214 / .293 / .326

PA130

HR3

K%24

BB%8

BABIP263

ISO111

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 30

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT40

scouting grade only

POWER30

scouting grade only

EYE40

scouting grade only

SPEED40

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.9M		$2M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	17	ROK	DSL Mariners	—	146	127	26	4	1	1	17	32	1	1	2	205	303	276	579	71	263	22	12	263	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK	DSL Mariners	—	146	115	30	6	1	1	29	23	1	1	2	261	414	357	770	96	315	16	20	358	132	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK	ACL Mariners	—	194	172	38	4	2	4	17	67	2	2	0	221	298	337	636	116	327	35	9	277	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK	ACL Mariners	—	194	164	47	6	3	4	25	45	2	2	0	287	387	433	820	146	364	23	13	364	136	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK	ACL Mariners	—	235	208	42	8	1	4	17	65	7	3	0	202	284	308	592	106	268	28	7	257	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK	ACL Mariners	—	235	198	51	13	1	4	27	45	7	3	0	258	366	394	760	136	309	19	11	342	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	20	ROK	SEA	—	196	174	37	5	0	5	19	45	2	0	0	213	297	328	625	115	256	23	10	281	73	-6	+0	+0	-1	+6	-0.2
YTD	20	ROK	SEA	—	196	163	47	7	0	7	30	31	2	0	0	288	405	460	865	172	317	16	15	387	154	+12	+0	+0	-1	+6	1.7
ROS	20	ROK	SEA	0%	130	116	25	4	0	3	11	31	2	1	0	214	293	326	619	111	269	24	8	281	73	-4	+0	+0	-1	+4	-0.1
ROS	20	MLB	SEA	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		267	—	—	269	64	—	—	+0	-0	—	—
FULL	20	ROK	SEA	—	196	175	37	5	0	5	19	45	2	0	0	211	297	326	623	114	254	23	10	281	73	-6	+0	+0	-1	+6	-0.2
TOT	20	ROK	SEA	—	326	290	62	9	0	8	30	76	4	1	0	213	296	327	623	114	259	23	9	281	73	-10	+0	+0	-2	+9	-0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	21	MLB	SEA	34%	333	297	66	11	1	8	29	78	4	3	1	222	300	347	647	125	272	23	9	291	81	-7	+0	+0	-2	+9	0.0
2028	22	MLB	SEA	48%	425	379	85	14	2	10	38	98	5	4	1	224	303	351	654	127	275	23	9	297	85	-7	+0	+0	-3	+12	0.3
2029	23	MLB	SEA	54%	484	432	99	17	2	12	43	111	6	5	1	229	308	361	669	132	277	23	9	301	88	-6	+1	+0	-3	+14	0.5
2030	24	MLB	SEA	55%	522	464	107	18	2	14	47	119	6	6	1	231	309	369	678	138	278	23	9	304	90	-6	+1	+0	-3	+15	0.7
2031	25	MLB	SEA	56%	542	481	111	19	2	14	49	123	7	7	1	231	311	366	677	135	278	23	9	305	91	-5	+1	+0	-3	+15	0.8
2032	26	MLB	SEA	56%	552	490	113	19	2	15	50	125	7	7	1	231	311	369	680	139	278	23	9	305	92	-5	+1	+0	-3	+16	0.8
2027	21	MLB	SEA	34%	114	102	23	4	0	3	10	27	1	1	0	225	301	353	654	127	270	24	9	279	72	-4	+0	+0	-1	+3	-0.1
2028	22	MLB	SEA	48%	206	184	42	7	1	5	18	48	2	2	0	228	304	359	663	130	272	23	9	285	76	-5	+0	+0	-1	+6	-0.0
2029	23	MLB	SEA	54%	262	234	54	9	1	7	23	60	3	3	1	231	308	368	675	137	274	23	9	289	79	-6	+0	+0	-2	+7	-0.0
2030	24	MLB	SEA	55%	289	258	58	10	1	7	26	66	3	3	1	225	303	353	656	128	275	23	9	292	81	-6	+0	+0	-2	+8	0.1
2031	25	MLB	SEA	56%	303	269	61	10	1	8	27	69	4	4	1	227	307	361	667	134	275	23	9	293	82	-6	+0	+0	-2	+9	0.1
2032	26	MLB	SEA	56%	310	275	63	11	1	8	28	70	4	4	1	229	309	364	673	135	275	23	9	293	83	-6	+0	+0	-2	+9	0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	1484	1323	301	51	5	38	132	340	17	17	4	228	306	360	666	132	276	23	9	290	80	-33	+2	+0	-9	+42	0.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	579	132	22	2	17	58	149	7	7	2	228	306	361	667	133	276	23	9	290	80	-15	+1	+0	-4	+18	0.0
Career	—			—	3563	3166	712	118	15	85	318	849	47	39	8	225	305	352	657	127	278	24	9	295	84	-66	+5	+0	-21	+101	1.9
/ 162G	—			—	650	578	131	22	3	16	58	155	9	7	1	227	307	358	666	131	280	24	9	295	84	-12	+1	+0	-4	+18	0.4

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	17	ROK	DSL Mariners	—	146	115	30	6	1	1	29	23	1	1	2	261	414	357	770	96	315	16	20	358	132	+5	-1	—	—	+4	0.9
2024	18	ROK	ACL Mariners	—	194	164	47	6	3	4	25	45	2	2	0	287	387	433	820	146	364	23	13	364	136	+8	+0	—	—	+5	1.4
2025	19	ROK	ACL Mariners	—	235	198	51	13	1	4	27	45	7	3	0	258	366	394	760	136	309	19	11	342	120	+5	+1	—	—	+7	1.3

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	8	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
	/162	664	20	13	233	305	399	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#2Tony Kemplast yr '23 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,198 PA	7	2,198	35	52	238	326	354	-4	-3	4.3	4.3
#2Tony Kemplast yr '23 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,198 PA	/162	664	11	16	238	326	354	-1.3	-0.8	1.3	pk7: 4
#3Shane Halterlast yr '04 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,744 PA	5	1,744	41	11	247	305	396	-6	+8	3.9	3.9
	/162	664	16	4	247	305	396	-2.1	+3.0	1.5	pk7: 4
#4Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	6	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
	/162	664	13	9	241	304	367	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
#5Pokey Reeselast yr '04 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,914 PA	5	1,914	29	78	242	303	347	-6	+6	2.7	2.7
	/162	664	10	27	242	303	347	-2.0	+2.2	1.0	pk7: 3
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	4	1,733	43	19	228	303	359	-10	+0	1.5	1.6
	/162	664	16	7	228	303	359	-4.0	+0.0	0.6	pk7: 2
#6Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	7	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
#6Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	/162	664	19	6	236	292	400	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Kelvin Alcantara (OGILVIE)	20	40	30	40	40	213/296/327	114	259	8	1	23%	9%	73	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jose Quero 2018 · A	19	42	40	43→30	44	208/266/294	86	269	9	3	26%	6%	54	-1.4	194/253/293	99	250	9	5	25%	7%	48	-1.9	196/247/344	148	225	15	4	21%	6%	63	-0.2
✕Leopoldo Correa 2012 · A	20	45	41→45	40→30	48	219/282/321	102	260	9	2	19%	7%	68	-0.5	208/263/288	80	271	5	4	24%	6%	50	-1.7	185/234/237	52	251	2	1	26%	5%	21	-0.8
✕Jose Roman 2011 · A	20	45	40	46→45	45	215/275/308	93	292	6	5	27%	8%	61	-1.0	231/290/327	96	288	7	6	21%	7%	72	-0.2	249/309/344	95	292	8	6	17%	8%	81	+0.2
✕Dario Unda 2016 · A	20	46	40→45	42→45	44	219/275/323	104	280	6	5	24%	6%	65	-0.7	224/276/336	112	282	10	7	23%	6%	69	-0.4	224/275/343	119	274	11	7	22%	6%	68	-0.1
✕Nelson B Alvarez 2016 · A	20	44	40	45→40	48	208/287/304	96	292	7	4	29%	9%	66	-0.6	188/271/261	73	259	5	5	27%	9%	48	-1.9	153/246/204	51	208	4	4	26%	10%	23	-1.1
✕Canaan Smith-Njigba 2019 · A	20	45→49	41→45	46→55	51	216/301/314	97	294	9	7	28%	10%	74	-0.1	230/299/349	119	326	11	11	30%	9%	82	+0.5	228/302/349	121	326	10	15	31%	9%	80	+0.2
✕Shed Long Jr. 2016 · A	20	42→47	42→50	43→50	42	210/262/309	99	277	9	6	27%	6%	56	-1.3	229/287/360	131	315	13	11	30%	7%	80	+0.4	233/295/385	151	314	17	11	30%	7%	87	+0.6
✕Jeffer Patino 2009 · A	20	49	39→45	41→45	49	231/298/323	92	280	5	6	19%	7%	75	-0.0	206/256/281	75	259	5	4	21%	6%	46	-2.0	182/221/238	56	229	5	2	22%	4%	17	-1.0
✕Armando Sierra 2023 · A	19	46	41→45	43→40	47	225/288/323	98	278	9	4	22%	7%	71	-0.3	214/269/315	101	304	9	4	31%	6%	60	-1.0	191/241/289	98	292	10	0	37%	6%	39	-0.5
✕Austin Gallagher 2009 · A	20	47→50	42→45	38→30	42	228/273/338	110	302	8	3	27%	6%	68	-0.5	230/280/335	105	297	9	2	24%	6%	70	-0.3	235/299/363	128	294	14	1	24%	8%	83	+0.4
✕Roque Salinas 2023 · A	20	50	40	41→40	40	240/277/338	98	280	7	4	17%	3%	69	-0.4	236/280/321	85	280	6	6	18%	4%	66	-0.6	229/275/277	48	279	1	4	17%	3%	49	-1.3
✕Eduard Pinto 2015 · A	20	48	36→40	43→50	46	224/267/288	64	263	3	6	16%	5%	52	-1.6	248/289/327	79	276	4	5	11%	5%	71	-0.3	268/304/353	85	298	6	10	12%	4%	81	+0.2
✕Wilmer Oberto 2013 · A	20	41	42→50	43→45	46	202/280/307	105	255	10	7	24%	7%	65	-0.7	209/267/324	115	282	11	4	28%	6%	63	-0.9	200/250/321	121	271	12	0	30%	5%	52	-0.5
✕Randel Alcantara 2016 · A	19	44	41→45	46→45	43	211/283/321	110	282	7	6	26%	6%	69	-0.4	197/255/304	107	263	9	6	27%	5%	53	-1.5	132/175/242	109	157	14	3	27%	3%	1	-1.4
✕Carlos Rodriguez 2023 · A	20	38	39→45	47→45	45	181/267/268	87	282	7	6	36%	9%	49	-1.8	190/265/267	77	299	5	6	35%	9%	47	-1.9	170/253/254	84	253	7	2	33%	9%	37	-1.0
✕Herlis Rodriguez 2014 · A	20	46→52	39→45	40→50	42	222/266/308	86	285	7	7	24%	6%	57	-1.2	240/278/340	100	297	9	8	22%	4%	70	-0.3	226/269/337	111	277	12	10	22%	4%	64	-0.5
✕Joe Dickerson 2007 · A	20	42→52	43→40	44→55	43	208/255/322	114	254	9	9	22%	5%	56	-1.3	237/288/327	90	297	5	17	21%	6%	71	-0.3	247/301/332	86	308	4	21	20%	6%	75	+0.0
✕Hendry Mendez 2023 · A	19	45→53	37→45	42→45	50	213/288/285	72	271	5	6	22%	9%	61	-1.0	229/295/318	89	286	7	5	21%	8%	72	-0.2	257/332/370	113	311	11	7	20%	9%	99	+1.0
✕Cornelius Randolph 2017 · A	20	48	38→45	44→45	46	226/293/309	84	301	5	7	25%	7%	69	-0.4	216/280/311	95	307	8	6	30%	7%	65	-0.7	207/273/300	93	296	8	6	31%	7%	55	-1.0
✕Hoy Park 2016 · A	20	40→49	41→45	47→55	46	196/269/296	99	264	8	11	28%	8%	56	-1.3	205/280/294	89	283	5	16	27%	8%	59	-1.1	227/314/325	98	300	8	17	25%	10%	79	+0.2