Kelvin Alcantara

Kelvin AlcantaraOF ACL Mariners

Age 20 L/L 6'0" / 165 lbs ROK K +7%HR -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 ROS PROJECTION233 act + 21 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†79

AVG/OBP/SLG.211 / .286 / .263

PA21

HR0

K%24

BB%10

BABIP267

ISO53

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$9M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 30

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT40

scouting grade only

POWER30

scouting grade only

EYE40

scouting grade only

SPEED40

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.2M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.2M
2035	Arb-1	$1M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Arb-2	$1M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2037	Arb-3	$1.0M	—	—	—
Totals		$3M		$3M	+$0.7M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2023	17	ROK	DSL Mariners	—	146	115	30	6	1	1	29	23	1	1	2	261	414	357	770	96	315	16	20	358	128	+5	-1	—	—	+3	0.8
2024	18	ROK	ACL Mariners	—	194	164	47	6	3	4	25	45	2	2	0	287	387	433	820	146	364	23	13	364	132	+7	+0	—	—	+4	1.2
2025	19	ROK	ACL Mariners	—	235	198	51	13	1	4	27	45	7	3	0	258	366	394	760	136	309	19	11	342	118	+5	+1	—	—	+5	1.1
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	—	146	127	26	4	1	1	17	32	1	1	2	205	303	276	579	71	259	22	12	263	64	-6	-1	—	—	+3	-0.4
2024	18	ROK MLE	ACL Mariners	—	194	173	37	4	2	3	16	66	2	2	0	214	288	312	600	98	305	34	8	268	68	-7	+0	—	—	+4	-0.3
2025	19	ROK MLE	ACL Mariners	—	235	208	39	8	1	3	17	65	7	3	0	188	272	279	550	91	244	28	7	247	53	-13	+1	—	—	+5	-0.8
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	—	146	127	26	4	1	1	17	32	1	1	2	205	303	276	579	71	263	22	12	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Mariners	—	146	115	30	6	1	1	29	23	1	1	2	261	414	357	770	96	315	16	20	358	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	ACL Mariners	—	194	173	37	4	2	3	16	66	2	2	0	214	288	312	600	98	318	34	8	268	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	ACL Mariners	—	194	164	47	6	3	4	25	45	2	2	0	287	387	433	820	146	364	23	13	364	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	ACL Mariners	—	235	208	39	8	1	3	17	65	7	3	0	188	272	279	550	91	252	28	7	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	ACL Mariners	—	235	198	51	13	1	4	27	45	7	3	0	258	366	394	760	136	309	19	11	342	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	—	146	127	26	4	1	1	17	32	1	1	2	205	303	276	579	71	259	22	12	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	ACL Mariners	—	194	174	37	4	2	3	16	66	2	2	0	213	288	310	598	98	305	34	8	268	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	ACL Mariners	—	235	209	39	8	1	3	17	65	7	3	0	187	272	278	549	91	244	28	7	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	—	146	127	26	4	1	1	17	32	1	1	2	205	303	276	579	71	259	22	12	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	ACL Mariners	—	194	174	37	4	2	3	16	66	2	2	0	213	288	310	598	98	305	34	8	268	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	ACL Mariners	—	235	209	39	8	1	3	17	65	7	3	0	187	272	278	549	91	244	28	7	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	20	ROK MLE	SEA	—	233	208	46	7	0	8	20	57	3	0	0	221	299	370	669	149	262	24	9	291	83	-5	+0	+0	-1	+5	-0.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	ROK RAW	SEA	—	218	182	54	9	0	9	31	34	3	0	0	297	407	495	902	198	319	16	14	398	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	20	A RAW	SEA	—	15	14	5	1	0	1	1	6	0	0	0	357	400	643	1.043	286	571	40	7	452	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	20	ROK MLE	SEA	0%	21	19	4	1	0	0	2	5	0	0	0	211	286	263	549	53	270	24	10	285	79	-1	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.0
TOT	20	ROK MLE	SEA	—	254	227	50	8	0	8	22	62	3	0	0	220	298	361	659	141	264	24	9	291	83	-5	+0	+0	-2	+6	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	SEA	34%	308	275	61	11	1	7	26	73	4	3	1	222	298	345	644	124	274	24	8	293	85	-6	+0	+0	-2	+7	-0.1
2028	22	MLB MLE	SEA	48%	407	364	83	15	1	11	35	95	5	4	1	228	304	365	670	137	276	23	9	299	89	-5	+0	+0	-2	+9	0.1
2029	23	MLB MLE	SEA	54%	471	422	97	17	2	13	40	109	6	5	1	230	306	372	678	142	278	23	8	303	91	-5	+1	+0	-3	+10	0.3
2030	24	MLB MLE	SEA	55%	513	458	106	19	2	14	44	118	6	6	1	231	307	373	680	142	279	23	9	306	93	-4	+1	+0	-3	+11	0.5
2031	25	MLB MLE	SEA	56%	537	478	112	20	2	15	47	123	7	6	1	234	312	379	691	144	279	23	9	307	94	-4	+1	+0	-3	+12	0.6
2032	26	MLB MLE	SEA	56%	549	489	113	20	2	15	48	125	7	7	1	231	309	372	681	141	279	23	9	308	94	-4	+1	+0	-3	+12	0.6
2033	27	MLB MLE	SEA	55%	552	491	115	20	2	16	49	126	7	7	2	234	313	381	693	147	278	23	9	308	94	-4	+1	+0	-3	+12	0.6
2034	28	MLB MLE	SEA	55%	549	488	113	20	2	15	49	127	7	7	1	232	311	373	684	141	278	23	9	307	94	-4	+1	-1	-3	+12	0.5
2035	29	MLB MLE	SEA	58%	540	480	110	19	2	15	48	126	7	7	1	229	308	371	679	142	277	23	9	305	92	-5	+1	-1	-3	+12	0.3
2036	30	MLB MLE	SEA	60%	530	470	108	19	2	14	48	125	7	6	1	230	310	368	679	138	276	24	9	302	90	-6	+1	-2	-3	+11	0.1
2037	31	MLB MLE	SEA	62%	517	460	102	18	1	13	46	123	6	6	1	222	301	350	651	128	273	24	9	298	88	-8	+1	-3	-3	+11	-0.2
2027	21	MLB CTX	SEA	34%	106	95	21	4	0	3	9	25	1	1	0	221	295	358	653	137	272	24	8	281	85	-2	+0	+0	-1	+2	-0.0
2028	22	MLB CTX	SEA	48%	197	176	40	7	1	5	17	46	2	2	0	227	303	364	666	136	274	23	9	287	89	-3	+0	+0	-1	+4	0.1
2029	23	MLB CTX	SEA	54%	255	228	52	9	1	7	22	59	3	3	1	228	304	368	673	140	275	23	9	291	91	-3	+0	+0	-2	+6	0.2
2030	24	MLB CTX	SEA	55%	284	254	58	10	1	8	24	65	4	3	1	228	305	370	675	142	276	23	8	294	93	-2	+0	+0	-2	+6	0.2
2031	25	MLB CTX	SEA	56%	301	268	62	11	1	8	26	69	4	4	1	231	309	369	678	138	276	23	9	295	94	-2	+0	+0	-2	+7	0.3
2032	26	MLB CTX	SEA	56%	309	275	63	11	1	8	27	71	4	4	1	229	307	364	671	135	276	23	9	295	94	-2	+0	+0	-2	+7	0.3
2033	27	MLB CTX	SEA	55%	305	271	62	11	1	8	27	70	4	4	1	229	308	365	673	137	276	23	9	295	94	-2	+0	+0	-2	+7	0.3
2034	28	MLB CTX	SEA	55%	301	267	61	11	1	8	27	69	4	4	1	228	309	367	676	139	275	23	9	294	94	-2	+0	-0	-2	+7	0.3
2035	29	MLB CTX	SEA	58%	313	278	63	11	1	8	28	73	4	4	1	227	306	360	666	133	275	23	9	292	92	-3	+0	-1	-2	+7	0.2
2036	30	MLB CTX	SEA	60%	319	283	64	11	1	8	29	75	4	4	1	226	307	357	664	131	273	24	9	290	90	-4	+0	-1	-2	+7	0.1
2037	31	MLB CTX	SEA	62%	319	283	63	11	1	8	29	76	4	4	1	223	304	353	657	131	271	24	9	286	88	-5	+0	-2	-2	+7	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3009	2678	609	107	10	79	265	698	38	37	9	227	306	363	669	136	276	23	9	292	89	-29	+4	-4	-18	+65	1.8
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	578	131	23	2	17	57	151	8	8	2	227	304	362	666	135	275	23	9	292	89	-6	+1	-1	-4	+14	0.4
Career	—	MLE		—	6069	5402	1226	215	23	155	532	1438	79	70	14	227	306	361	667	134	278	24	9	299	89	-54	+8	-7	-33	+119	3.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	579	131	23	2	17	57	154	8	7	1	226	304	361	665	135	277	24	9	299	89	-6	+1	-1	-4	+14	0.4

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Marwin Gonzalezlast yr '22 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,882 PA	5.8	3,882	107	44	252	310	399	-10	+17	10.9	10.9
/162	664	18	8	-1.6	+2.8	1.9	pk7: 11
#2Gordon Beckhamlast yr '19 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,764 PA	5.7	3,764	80	34	237	301	368	+13	+19	8.2	8.4
/162	664	14	6	+2.4	+3.4	1.4	pk7: 9
#3Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	4.1	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
/162	664	20	13	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#4Gregory Polancolast yr '21 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,220 PA	4.8	3,220	96	98	241	309	409	-34	-28	3.8	4.4
/162	664	20	20	-7.1	-5.8	0.8	pk7: 5
#5Tony Kemplast yr '23 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,198 PA	3.3	2,198	35	52	238	326	354	-4	-3	4.3	4.3
/162	664	11	16	-1.3	-0.8	1.3	pk7: 4
#6Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	3.5	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
/162	664	13	9	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	4.9	3,238	86	37	230	304	368	-19	+0	3.9	3.6
/162	664	18	8	-4.0	+0.0	0.8	pk7: 3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Kelvin Alcantara (OGILVIE)	20	40	30	40	40	215/291/334	118	270	5	1	24%	8%	79	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Leopoldo Correa 2012 · A	20	45	41→45	40→30	48	219/282/321	102	260	9	2	19%	7%	72	-0.7	208/263/288	80	271	5	4	24%	6%	56	-1.9	185/234/237	52	251	2	1	26%	5%	30	-0.9
✕Jose Roman 2011 · A	20	45	40	46→45	45	215/275/308	93	292	6	5	27%	8%	65	-1.2	231/290/327	96	288	7	6	21%	7%	76	-0.4	249/309/344	95	292	8	6	17%	8%	83	+0.0
✕Dario Unda 2016 · A	20	46	40→45	42→45	44	219/275/323	104	280	6	5	24%	6%	69	-0.9	224/276/336	112	282	10	7	23%	6%	72	-0.7	224/275/343	119	274	11	7	22%	6%	72	-0.2
✕Jeffer Patino 2009 · A	20	49	39→45	41→45	49	231/298/323	92	280	5	6	19%	7%	78	-0.3	206/256/281	75	259	5	4	21%	6%	52	-2.2	182/221/238	56	229	5	2	22%	4%	26	-1.0
✕Canaan Smith-Njigba 2019 · A	20	45→50	41→45	46→55	51	216/301/314	97	294	9	7	28%	10%	77	-0.3	232/302/345	113	325	10	11	29%	9%	84	+0.2	233/308/347	114	330	9	15	29%	10%	84	+0.1
✕Nelson B Alvarez 2016 · A	20	44	40	45→40	48	208/287/304	96	292	7	4	29%	9%	70	-0.9	188/271/261	73	259	5	5	27%	9%	54	-2.0	153/246/204	51	208	4	4	26%	10%	32	-1.1
✕Carlos Rodriguez 2023 · A	20	38	40→45	47→45	46	182/270/274	91	279	8	6	35%	10%	57	-1.8	191/265/269	78	298	5	6	34%	9%	53	-2.1	177/255/266	89	258	8	2	32%	9%	47	-1.0
✕Anthony Seigler 2019 · A	20	45→39	38→45	48→55	50	214/284/293	79	268	6	5	22%	8%	65	-1.2	195/274/272	77	286	5	5	30%	9%	58	-1.7	219/309/345	126	268	10	25	21%	11%	85	+0.2
✕Austin Gallagher 2009 · A	20	47→49	42→45	38→30	42	228/273/338	110	302	8	3	27%	6%	72	-0.7	230/279/331	101	296	9	2	24%	6%	72	-0.7	234/298/360	126	291	13	1	23%	8%	84	+0.1
✕Shed Long Jr. 2016 · A	20	43→49	42→50	44→50	43	213/265/317	104	278	10	6	27%	6%	64	-1.3	231/290/362	131	316	13	11	29%	7%	84	+0.1	234/295/378	144	313	15	11	29%	7%	86	+0.3
✕Wilmer Oberto 2013 · A	20	41	42→50	43→45	46	202/280/307	105	255	10	7	24%	7%	69	-0.9	208/266/321	113	282	10	4	29%	6%	65	-1.2	197/246/315	118	270	11	0	30%	5%	55	-0.6
✕Cornelius Randolph 2017 · A	20	48→47	38→40	44→45	45	223/291/304	81	301	4	7	26%	7%	71	-0.8	214/278/309	95	303	8	6	30%	7%	68	-1.0	205/266/289	84	286	8	8	29%	7%	55	-1.1
✕Randel Alcantara 2016 · A	19	44	41→45	46→45	43	211/283/321	110	282	7	6	26%	6%	73	-0.6	197/255/304	107	263	9	6	27%	5%	58	-1.7	132/175/242	109	157	14	3	27%	3%	12	-1.3
✕Hendry Mendez 2023 · A	19	46→56	38→45	42→45	50	219/292/294	75	276	6	6	22%	8%	69	-0.9	234/299/322	88	290	6	5	20%	8%	78	-0.3	258/330/364	106	310	10	6	19%	9%	97	+0.8
✕Nelson Quiroz 2022 · A	20	45	37→40	47→40	49	212/281/290	78	265	3	4	20%	8%	64	-1.3	230/289/333	103	271	9	4	18%	7%	77	-0.3	263/309/326	63	295	2	0	11%	6%	77	-0.1
✕Herlis Rodriguez 2014 · A	20	46→52	39→45	40→50	42	222/266/308	86	285	7	7	24%	6%	62	-1.4	239/276/333	94	297	8	8	21%	4%	72	-0.7	205/263/316	111	271	10	12	27%	5%	62	-0.7
✕Joe Dickerson 2007 · A	20	42→52	43→40	44→55	43	208/255/322	114	254	9	9	22%	5%	61	-1.5	237/288/327	90	297	5	17	21%	6%	74	-0.5	247/301/333	86	308	4	21	20%	6%	78	-0.1
✕Greg Garcia 2011 · A	21	46→55	40	44→50	43	222/277/317	96	274	7	8	22%	5%	69	-0.9	239/314/332	93	303	5	9	21%	8%	86	+0.3	240/350/332	92	308	6	3	21%	13%	98	+0.6
✕Roque Salinas 2023 · A	20	50	40	40	40	238/276/332	94	280	7	4	18%	3%	72	-0.7	234/280/318	84	279	6	6	18%	4%	70	-0.9	228/275/278	51	278	1	4	17%	4%	55	-1.3
✕Hoy Park 2016 · A	20	40→49	41→45	47→55	46	196/269/296	99	264	8	11	28%	8%	61	-1.5	204/280/290	86	281	5	16	27%	8%	63	-1.3	228/317/324	96	297	8	17	24%	11%	83	+0.0

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps