Kelvin Alcantara

OF ACL Mariners
Age 21 L/L 6'0" / 165 lbs ROK K +7%HR -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038
Overview
ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039
OGV OFP35OGV rank#2372ETA2029MLB%0%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202418ROKSEA194.287/.387/.4334268—.214/.288/.312
202519ROKSEA235.258/.366/.3944353—.188/.272/.279
202620A/ROKSEA233.301/.407/.50510080—.221/.299/.370
2027PROJMLE21MLBSEA343.220/.285/.3346575-0.1
2028PROJ34% MLB22MLBSEA63.221/.287/.3391179-0.0
2029PROJ48% MLB23MLBSEA132.224/.291/.3463282-0.1
Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk
ISO83
K%79
wRC+77
Whiff%73
wOBA67
Z-Con%62
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 96%
CompsAngel Acosta (age 21) · Alexander Ovalles (age 21) · Austin Gallagher (age 21)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 136 proj PA
wRC+†75
AVG/OBP/SLG.218 / .283 / .331
PA136
HR3
K%24
BB%7
ISO114
MLB%0%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -4.1 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-4BATRUN: -0.0 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)-0RUNFLD: +0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: -0.8 runs (Positional adjustment)-1POSREP: +2.9 runs (Replacement-level credit)+3REPTotal WAR: -0.10-0.1WAR
0.00.51.00.00.00.027282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$3M ctrl surplus
Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 30
Toolsscout grade
CONTACT40
scouting grade only
POWER30
scouting grade only
EYE40
scouting grade only
SPEED40
scouting grade only
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2033
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2038
First FA Year   2039
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M———
2034Pre-Arb$1.0M———
2035Pre-Arb$1.0M———
2036Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.0M $-0.9M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202317 ROKDSL Mariners — 146115 30611 29231 12 261414357770 96315 1620 358 53 — — — — — —
202418 ROKACL Mariners — 194164 47634 25452 20 287387433820 146364 2313 364 68 — — — — — —
202519 ROKACL Mariners — 235198 511314 27457 30 258366394760 136309 1911 342 53 — — — — — —
202620 AInland Empire 66ers — 1514 5101 160 00 3574006431.043 286571 407 452 86 — — — — — —
202620 ROKACL Mariners — 218182 54909 31343 00 297407495902 198319 1614 398 80 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202317 ROK MLEDSL Mariners — 146124 22410 20271 12 177297226522 48216 1814 247 53 — — — — — —
202418 ROK MLEACL Mariners — 194173 37423 16662 20 214288312600 98307 348 269 68 — — — — — —
202519 ROK MLEACL Mariners — 235208 39813 17657 30 188272279550 91243 287 246 53 — — — — — —
202620 A MLEInland Empire 66ers — 1514 4101 180 00 286333571905 286507 537 295 86 — — — — — —
202620 ROK MLEACL Mariners — 218194 42607 19493 00 216296356652 139247 229 286 80 — — — — — —
202317 ROK MLEDSL Mariners — 146124 22410 20271 12 177297226522 48224 1814 247 53 — — — — — —
202317 ROK RAWDSL Mariners — 146115 30611 29231 12 261414357770 96315 1620 358 53 — — — — — —
202418 ROK MLEACL Mariners — 194173 37423 16662 20 214288312600 98318 348 269 68 — — — — — —
202418 ROK RAWACL Mariners — 194164 47634 25452 20 287387433820 146364 2313 364 68 — — — — — —
202519 ROK MLEACL Mariners — 235208 39813 17657 30 188272279550 91252 287 246 53 — — — — — —
202519 ROK RAWACL Mariners — 235198 511314 27457 30 258366394760 136309 1911 342 53 — — — — — —
202620 ROK MLE2 teams — 233208 46708 20573 00 221299370669 149262 249 287 80 — — — — — —
202620 ROK RAW2 teams — 233196 5910010 32403 00 301407505912 204331 1714 401 80 — — — — — —
202317 ROK MLEDSL Mariners — 146124 22410 20271 12 177297226522 48216 1814 247 53 — — — — — —
202418 ROK MLEACL Mariners — 194174 37423 16662 20 213288310598 98307 348 269 68 — — — — — —
202519 ROK MLEACL Mariners — 235209 39813 17657 30 187272278549 91243 287 246 53 — — — — — —
202620 ROK MLE2 teams — 233208 46708 20573 00 221299370669 149264 249 287 80 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202418 ROK MLEACL Mariners — 194174 37423 16662 20 213288310598 98307 348 269 68 — — — — — —
202519 ROK MLEACL Mariners — 235209 39813 17657 30 187272278549 91243 287 246 53 — — — — — —
202620 ROK MLE2 teams — 233208 46708 20573 00 221299370669 149264 249 287 80 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202721 MLB MLESEA 0% 343311 681326 25814 51 220285334619 114274 247 279 75 -10 +1 +0 -2 +7 -0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202822 MLB MLESEA 34% 182165 37714 13422 31 223289344633 121276 237 285 79 -5 +0 +0 -1 +4 -0.2
202923 MLB MLESEA 48% 273248 561116 20633 41 226293351644 125277 237 289 82 -6 +0 +0 -2 +6 -0.1
203024 MLB MLESEA 53% 350317 731428 26804 51 228295357652 129279 237 292 84 -7 +1 +0 -2 +8 -0.1
203125 MLB MLESEA 55% 392355 811529 30904 51 229297360657 131279 238 295 85 -7 +1 +0 -2 +8 -0.0
203226 MLB MLESEA 56% 416376 8616210 32955 52 230298362660 132280 238 296 86 -7 +0 +0 -2 +9 -0.0
203327 MLB MLESEA 55% 425384 8817210 33985 52 229297360657 131279 238 294 85 -7 +0 +0 -3 +9 -0.1
203428 MLB MLESEA 59% 425385 8817210 33994 52 227295355650 128278 238 292 83 -8 +0 -1 -3 +9 -0.2
203529 MLB MLESEA 61% 416377 851629 32984 42 224292349641 124277 248 288 81 -9 +0 -1 -2 +9 -0.4
202822 MLB CTXSEA 34% 6357 12201 5151 10 221287339627 118273 248 282 79 -2 +0 +0 -0 +1 -0.0
202923 MLB CTXSEA 48% 132120 27513 10301 21 224291346637 122275 238 286 82 -3 +0 +0 -1 +3 -0.1
203024 MLB CTXSEA 53% 185167 38714 14422 31 226293352645 126276 238 290 84 -4 +0 +0 -1 +4 -0.0
203125 MLB CTXSEA 55% 215195 44815 16492 31 227295355650 128277 237 292 85 -4 +0 +0 -1 +5 -0.0
203226 MLB CTXSEA 56% 232209 47915 18533 31 228296357653 129277 238 293 86 -4 +0 +0 -1 +5 0.0
203327 MLB CTXSEA 55% 234211 48915 18543 31 227295354649 128277 238 291 85 -4 +0 +0 -1 +5 -0.0
203428 MLB CTXSEA 59% 250226 511015 19583 31 225293350643 125276 238 289 83 -5 +0 -0 -2 +5 -0.1
203529 MLB CTXSEA 61% 253229 511015 19593 21 222290344634 121274 238 285 81 -6 +0 -1 -2 +5 -0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 15641414 31860733 11936018 207 225293347641 122277 238 289 79 -30 +1 -1 -9 +34 -0.6
/ 162G— A+C — 650588 13325314 491507 83 226293350643 124279 238 289 79 -13 +0 -1 -4 +14 -0.2
Career— MLE — 38233443 7661411983 30291246 4415 222294347641 124276 248 285 79 -60 +2 -2 -18 +65 -1.3
/ 162G— MLE — 650585 13024314 511558 73 222293345638 123276 248 285 79 -13 +1 -0 -4 +14 -0.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ROKACL Mariners · 218 PAwOBA .391 → .286 (−105)K% 15.6% → 22.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA15.60%÷1.000×1.440——22.46%
BB% (unintentional) /PA14.22%÷1.000×0.620—×0.9858.68%
HBP% /PA1.38%—×0.720—×0.9850.98%
Singles /BIP24.32%÷1.000×0.820×0.995×0.98519.55%
Doubles /BIP6.08%÷1.000×0.720×0.995×0.9854.29%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.720×0.995×0.9850.00%
Home runs /BIP6.08%÷1.000×0.780—×0.9854.67%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.995.

Result: wOBA .391 → .286; ISO .198 → .149; BABIP .319 → .247. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AInland Empire 66ers · 15 PAwOBA .439 → .295 (−143)K% 40.0% → 54.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA40.00%÷1.000×1.360——54.40%
BB% (unintentional) /PA6.67%÷1.000×0.690—×1.0154.67%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.780—×1.0150.00%
Singles /BIP37.50%÷1.000×0.920—×1.01535.02%
Doubles /BIP12.50%÷1.000×0.830—×1.01510.53%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.910—×1.0150.00%
Home runs /BIP12.50%÷1.000×0.800—×1.01510.15%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .439 → .295; ISO .286 → .180; BABIP .571 → .507. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKACL Mariners · 235 PAwOBA .338 → .246 (−92)K% 19.1% → 27.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA19.15%÷0.999×1.440——27.61%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.49%÷1.000×0.620—×0.9957.09%
HBP% /PA2.98%—×0.720—×0.9952.13%
Singles /BIP21.57%÷0.942×0.820×0.967×0.99518.07%
Doubles /BIP8.50%÷1.046×0.720×0.967×0.9955.63%
Triples /BIP0.65%÷0.900×0.720×0.967×0.9950.50%
Home runs /BIP2.61%÷0.886×0.780—×0.9952.29%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 77, 1B 88, 2B 109, 3B 80, K 100, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.967.

Result: wOBA .338 → .246; ISO .136 → .101; BABIP .309 → .243. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKACL Mariners · 194 PAwOBA .360 → .269 (−91)K% 23.2% → 34.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA23.20%÷0.981×1.440——34.03%
BB% (unintentional) /PA12.89%÷0.966×0.620—×1.0088.34%
HBP% /PA1.03%—×0.720—×1.0080.75%
Singles /BIP28.57%÷0.962×0.820×1.023×1.00825.10%
Doubles /BIP5.04%÷0.970×0.720×1.023×1.0083.86%
Triples /BIP2.52%÷1.150×0.720×1.023×1.0081.63%
Home runs /BIP3.36%÷0.863×0.780—×1.0083.06%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 73, 1B 92, 2B 94, 3B 130, K 96, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.023.

Result: wOBA .360 → .269; ISO .146 → .110; BABIP .364 → .307. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 DSLDSL Mariners · 146 PAwOBA .350 → .247 (−103)K% 15.8% → 18.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA15.75%÷1.020×1.220——18.85%
BB% (unintentional) /PA19.18%÷1.005×0.700—×1.00813.46%
HBP% /PA0.68%—×0.700—×1.0080.48%
Singles /BIP23.91%÷0.978×0.680×1.036×1.00817.34%
Doubles /BIP6.52%÷1.092×0.600×1.036×1.0083.74%
Triples /BIP1.09%÷1.049×0.600×1.036×1.0080.65%
Home runs /BIP1.09%÷1.034×0.470—×1.0080.50%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 96, 2B 118, 3B 110, K 104, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.036.

Result: wOBA .350 → .247; ISO .096 → .056; BABIP .315 → .216. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).