Gabriel Moncada
1B Modesto Nuts| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 21 | AModesto Nuts | 424 | .257/.360/.431 | 12 | 1 | 71 | — | .204/.283/.336 |
| 2024 | 22 | A+SEA | 266 | .202/.328/.291 | 2 | 1 | 28 | — | .148/.238/.203 |
| 2025 | 23 | AModesto Nuts | 228 | .201/.261/.278 | 1 | 0 | 6 | — | .150/.195/.206 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 25 | MLBSEA | 278 | .184/.244/.252 | 2 | 4 | 41 | -0.4 | |
| 2028PROJ30% MLB | 26 | MLBSEA | 26 | .186/.248/.264 | 0 | 0 | 46 | -0.2 |
Tools · ContractCON 25 / POW 25
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 17 | ROK | DSL Mariners | — | 153 | 138 | 33 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 29 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 239 | 309 | 283 | 592 | 43 | 300 | 19 | 8 | 274 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK | DSL Mariners | — | 206 | 159 | 57 | 16 | 2 | 4 | 37 | 46 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 358 | 502 | 560 | 1.062 | 201 | 482 | 22 | 18 | 467 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A | Modesto Nuts | — | 91 | 78 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 28 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 154 | 275 | 256 | 531 | 103 | 208 | 31 | 12 | 254 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | ROK | ACL Mariners | — | 135 | 116 | 36 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 17 | 24 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 310 | 403 | 491 | 894 | 181 | 367 | 18 | 13 | 394 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A | Modesto Nuts | — | 424 | 362 | 93 | 25 | 1 | 12 | 51 | 112 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 257 | 360 | 431 | 790 | 174 | 335 | 26 | 12 | 352 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ | Everett AquaSox | — | 266 | 223 | 45 | 14 | 0 | 2 | 38 | 72 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 202 | 328 | 291 | 620 | 90 | 287 | 27 | 14 | 293 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A | Modesto Nuts | — | 228 | 209 | 42 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 68 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 201 | 261 | 278 | 539 | 77 | 289 | 30 | 7 | 245 | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Mariners | — | 153 | 143 | 20 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 35 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 140 | 191 | 161 | 352 | 21 | 191 | 23 | 5 | 172 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL Mariners | — | 206 | 171 | 37 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 25 | 56 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 216 | 346 | 310 | 656 | 94 | 302 | 27 | 12 | 297 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A MLE | Modesto Nuts | — | 91 | 81 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 39 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 111 | 209 | 198 | 406 | 86 | 174 | 43 | 9 | 179 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | ROK MLE | ACL Mariners | — | 135 | 123 | 27 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 35 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 220 | 284 | 341 | 625 | 122 | 279 | 26 | 7 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A MLE | Modesto Nuts | — | 424 | 378 | 77 | 18 | 1 | 10 | 35 | 148 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 204 | 283 | 336 | 619 | 132 | 292 | 35 | 8 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ MLE | Everett AquaSox | — | 266 | 237 | 35 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 24 | 97 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 148 | 238 | 203 | 440 | 55 | 241 | 36 | 9 | 210 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A MLE | Modesto Nuts | — | 228 | 214 | 32 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 88 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 150 | 195 | 206 | 400 | 56 | 238 | 39 | 5 | 177 | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Mariners | — | 153 | 143 | 20 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 35 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 140 | 191 | 161 | 352 | 21 | 183 | 23 | 5 | 172 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Mariners | — | 153 | 138 | 33 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 29 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 239 | 309 | 283 | 592 | 43 | 300 | 19 | 8 | 274 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL Mariners | — | 206 | 171 | 37 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 25 | 56 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 216 | 346 | 310 | 656 | 94 | 307 | 27 | 12 | 297 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK RAW | DSL Mariners | — | 206 | 159 | 57 | 16 | 2 | 4 | 37 | 46 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 358 | 502 | 560 | 1.062 | 201 | 482 | 22 | 18 | 467 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 226 | 205 | 36 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 17 | 74 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 176 | 249 | 283 | 532 | 107 | 250 | 33 | 8 | 234 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | ROK RAW | 2 teams | — | 226 | 194 | 48 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 28 | 52 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 247 | 351 | 397 | 748 | 149 | 312 | 23 | 12 | 337 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A MLE | Modesto Nuts | — | 424 | 378 | 77 | 18 | 1 | 10 | 35 | 148 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 204 | 283 | 336 | 619 | 132 | 299 | 35 | 8 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A RAW | Modesto Nuts | — | 424 | 362 | 93 | 25 | 1 | 12 | 51 | 112 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 257 | 360 | 431 | 790 | 174 | 335 | 26 | 12 | 352 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ MLE | Everett AquaSox | — | 266 | 237 | 35 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 24 | 97 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 148 | 238 | 203 | 440 | 55 | 243 | 36 | 9 | 210 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ RAW | Everett AquaSox | — | 266 | 223 | 45 | 14 | 0 | 2 | 38 | 72 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 202 | 328 | 291 | 620 | 90 | 287 | 27 | 14 | 293 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A MLE | Modesto Nuts | — | 228 | 214 | 32 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 88 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 150 | 195 | 206 | 400 | 56 | 244 | 39 | 5 | 177 | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A RAW | Modesto Nuts | — | 228 | 209 | 42 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 68 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 201 | 261 | 278 | 539 | 77 | 289 | 30 | 7 | 245 | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Mariners | — | 153 | 143 | 20 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 35 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 140 | 191 | 161 | 352 | 21 | 191 | 23 | 5 | 172 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL Mariners | — | 206 | 170 | 37 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 25 | 56 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 218 | 346 | 312 | 658 | 94 | 302 | 27 | 12 | 297 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 226 | 204 | 36 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 17 | 74 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 176 | 249 | 284 | 533 | 108 | 237 | 33 | 8 | 234 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A MLE | Modesto Nuts | — | 424 | 379 | 77 | 18 | 1 | 10 | 35 | 148 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 203 | 283 | 335 | 618 | 132 | 292 | 35 | 8 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ MLE | Everett AquaSox | — | 266 | 236 | 35 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 24 | 97 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 148 | 238 | 203 | 441 | 55 | 241 | 36 | 9 | 210 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A MLE | Modesto Nuts | — | 228 | 214 | 32 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 88 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 150 | 195 | 206 | 400 | 56 | 238 | 39 | 5 | 177 | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 22 | A+ MLE | Everett AquaSox | — | 266 | 236 | 35 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 24 | 97 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 148 | 238 | 203 | 441 | 55 | 241 | 36 | 9 | 210 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A MLE | Modesto Nuts | — | 228 | 214 | 32 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 88 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 150 | 195 | 206 | 400 | 56 | 238 | 39 | 5 | 177 | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB MLE | SEA | 0% | 278 | 256 | 47 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 82 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 184 | 244 | 252 | 497 | 69 | 260 | 29 | 6 | 228 | 41 | -20 | +0 | +0 | -5 | +6 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 26 | MLB MLE | SEA | 30% | 86 | 79 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 25 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 188 | 250 | 267 | 517 | 79 | 261 | 29 | 7 | 237 | 46 | -5 | +0 | +0 | -2 | +2 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB CTX | SEA | 30% | 26 | 24 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 186 | 248 | 264 | 512 | 78 | 259 | 31 | 8 | 235 | 46 | -2 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +1 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 26 | 24 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 167 | 231 | 208 | 439 | 42 | 250 | 31 | 8 | 235 | 45 | -2 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +1 | -0.2 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 600 | 100 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 50 | 200 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 167 | 231 | 208 | 439 | 42 | 250 | 31 | 8 | 235 | 45 | -42 | +0 | +0 | -12 | +14 | -4.0 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1655 | 1488 | 262 | 57 | 5 | 19 | 131 | 542 | 26 | 11 | 12 | 176 | 255 | 259 | 514 | 83 | 259 | 33 | 8 | 234 | 45 | -10 | +0 | +0 | -3 | +3 | -0.9 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 584 | 102 | 22 | 2 | 7 | 51 | 213 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 175 | 252 | 255 | 507 | 80 | 258 | 33 | 8 | 234 | 45 | -43 | +2 | +0 | -12 | +14 | -4.0 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2025 AModesto Nuts · 228 PAwOBA .241 → .177 (−64)K% 29.8% → 38.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.82% | ÷1.045 | ×1.360 | — | — | 38.80% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.46% | ÷0.988 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.980 | 5.10% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.980 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.57% | ÷0.989 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×0.980 | 17.80% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.80% | ÷1.067 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×0.980 | 5.65% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.71% | ÷1.097 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×0.980 | 0.55% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.71% | ÷0.759 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.980 | 0.73% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 52, 1B 98, 2B 113, 3B 119, K 109, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.0 → −2.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .241 → .177; ISO .077 → .055; BABIP .289 → .238. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Everett AquaSox · 266 PAwOBA .286 → .210 (−76)K% 27.1% → 36.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.07% | ÷1.003 | ×1.350 | — | — | 36.45% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.91% | ÷1.082 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 9.11% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.50% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×0.998 | 1.22% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.21% | ÷0.992 | ×0.910 | ×0.964 | ×0.998 | 16.94% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.27% | ÷1.040 | ×0.830 | ×0.964 | ×0.998 | 7.12% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.904 | ×0.820 | ×0.964 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.32% | ÷1.175 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.998 | 0.93% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 135, 1B 98, 2B 108, 3B 81, K 101, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.964.
Result: wOBA .286 → .210; ISO .090 → .063; BABIP .287 → .241. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AModesto Nuts · 424 PAwOBA .346 → .273 (−74)K% 26.4% → 35.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.42% | ÷1.026 | ×1.360 | — | — | 35.02% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.03% | ÷1.013 | ×0.690 | — | — | 8.19% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.65% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 1.29% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.00% | ÷0.974 | ×0.920 | ×0.980 | — | 20.38% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.00% | ÷1.050 | ×0.830 | ×0.980 | — | 7.75% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.40% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×0.980 | — | 0.31% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.80% | ÷0.883 | ×0.800 | — | — | 4.35% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 77, 1B 95, 2B 110, 3B 130, K 105, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.980.
Result: wOBA .346 → .273; ISO .174 → .139; BABIP .335 → .292. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ROKACL Mariners · 135 PAwOBA .384 → .271 (−113)K% 17.8% → 26.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.78% | ÷0.984 | ×1.440 | — | — | 26.02% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.85% | ÷1.023 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.985 | 7.07% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.74% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 0.53% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷1.014 | ×0.820 | ×1.017 | ×0.985 | 20.26% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.70% | ÷1.132 | ×0.720 | ×1.017 | ×0.985 | 5.54% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.17% | ÷0.900 | ×0.720 | ×1.017 | ×0.985 | 1.74% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.26% | ÷1.033 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.985 | 2.43% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 103, 2B 126, 3B 80, K 97, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.017.
Result: wOBA .384 → .271; ISO .181 → .126; BABIP .367 → .279. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AModesto Nuts · 91 PAwOBA .248 → .179 (−69)K% 30.8% → 43.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.77% | ÷0.971 | ×1.360 | — | — | 43.11% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.09% | ÷1.024 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 8.27% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.20% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 1.74% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.00% | ÷1.047 | ×0.920 | ×0.958 | ×1.015 | 13.66% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.00% | ÷1.060 | ×0.830 | ×0.958 | ×1.015 | 3.05% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.060 | ×0.910 | ×0.958 | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.00% | ÷0.855 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 3.80% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 71, 1B 109, 2B 112, 3B 112, K 94, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.958.
Result: wOBA .248 → .179; ISO .103 → .079; BABIP .208 → .174. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 DSLDSL Mariners · 206 PAwOBA .458 → .297 (−162)K% 22.3% → 27.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.33% | ÷0.996 | ×1.220 | — | — | 27.35% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.96% | ÷1.026 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.985 | 12.07% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.37% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×0.985 | 3.01% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.97% | ÷0.957 | ×0.680 | ×1.002 | ×0.985 | 21.73% |
| Doubles /BIP | 14.16% | ÷1.177 | ×0.600 | ×1.002 | ×0.985 | 7.12% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.77% | ÷0.939 | ×0.600 | ×1.002 | ×0.985 | 1.12% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.54% | ÷1.004 | ×0.470 | — | ×0.985 | 1.63% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 91, 2B 135, 3B 88, K 99, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 18.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.002.
Result: wOBA .458 → .297; ISO .201 → .106; BABIP .482 → .302. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 DSLDSL Mariners · 153 PAwOBA .266 → .172 (−94)K% 19.0% → 23.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.95% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 23.12% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.84% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 5.53% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.65% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 0.46% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.77% | ÷1.000 | ×0.680 | ×0.950 | ×1.008 | 16.12% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.50% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | ×0.950 | ×1.008 | 3.16% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | ×0.950 | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .266 → .172; ISO .043 → .025; BABIP .300 → .191. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).