Sahid Valenzuela
SS Lansing Lugnuts| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 25 | AA/A+OAK | 308 | .270/.319/.327 | 1 | 3 | 54 | — | .241/.276/.290 |
| 2024 | 26 | AA/A+OAK | 233 | .178/.239/.202 | 0 | 3 | -4 | — | .147/.191/.165 |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA/AA/A+OAK | 361 | .238/.307/.299 | 3 | 6 | 34 | — | .199/.252/.250 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 29 | MLBOAK | 1 | .218/.266/.289 | 0 | 0 | 52 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ22% MLB | 30 | MLBOAK | 46 | .216/.265/.288 | 0 | 1 | 51 | -0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 25
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 23 | A | Stockton Ports | — | 231 | 199 | 43 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 23 | 51 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 216 | 322 | 296 | 618 | 80 | 286 | 22 | 10 | 289 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA | Midland RockHounds | — | 95 | 90 | 19 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 211 | 253 | 389 | 642 | 178 | 217 | 18 | 5 | 283 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 167 | 152 | 30 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 39 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 197 | 261 | 237 | 497 | 39 | 265 | 23 | 7 | 231 | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA | Midland RockHounds | — | 199 | 178 | 49 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 29 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 275 | 332 | 348 | 680 | 73 | 318 | 15 | 7 | 300 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | A+ | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 109 | 103 | 27 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 23 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 262 | 296 | 291 | 588 | 29 | 333 | 21 | 3 | 267 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA | Midland RockHounds | — | 118 | 109 | 20 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 22 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 183 | 233 | 211 | 444 | 28 | 227 | 19 | 6 | 204 | -4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | A+ | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 115 | 104 | 18 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 23 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 173 | 246 | 192 | 438 | 19 | 222 | 20 | 9 | 208 | -4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA | Las Vegas Aviators | — | 16 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 125 | 125 | 125 | 250 | 154 | 19 | 0 | 113 | -51 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2025 | 27 | AA | Midland RockHounds | — | 159 | 145 | 38 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 25 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 262 | 327 | 324 | 651 | 62 | 311 | 16 | 6 | 300 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | A+ | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 186 | 167 | 38 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 27 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 228 | 306 | 293 | 600 | 66 | 261 | 15 | 10 | 279 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 23 | A MLE | Stockton Ports | — | 231 | 207 | 40 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 68 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 193 | 274 | 266 | 540 | 72 | 272 | 29 | 6 | 234 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA MLE | Midland RockHounds | — | 95 | 91 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 187 | 221 | 352 | 573 | 165 | 195 | 22 | 4 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ MLE | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 167 | 155 | 26 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 49 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 168 | 218 | 200 | 418 | 32 | 239 | 29 | 5 | 186 | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA MLE | Midland RockHounds | — | 199 | 183 | 46 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 36 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 251 | 290 | 317 | 607 | 66 | 292 | 18 | 5 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | A+ MLE | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 109 | 104 | 23 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 31 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 221 | 250 | 240 | 490 | 19 | 306 | 28 | 2 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA MLE | Midland RockHounds | — | 118 | 111 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 28 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 153 | 190 | 171 | 361 | 18 | 197 | 24 | 4 | 163 | -4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | A+ MLE | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 115 | 107 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 30 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 140 | 193 | 159 | 352 | 19 | 195 | 26 | 6 | 162 | -4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA MLE | Las Vegas Aviators | — | 16 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 125 | 125 | 125 | 250 | 135 | 25 | 0 | 93 | -51 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2025 | 27 | AA MLE | Midland RockHounds | — | 159 | 148 | 34 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 31 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 230 | 283 | 284 | 567 | 54 | 279 | 19 | 4 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | A+ MLE | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 186 | 173 | 31 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 35 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 179 | 237 | 231 | 468 | 52 | 211 | 19 | 6 | 206 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A MLE | Stockton Ports | — | 231 | 207 | 40 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 68 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 193 | 274 | 266 | 540 | 72 | 283 | 29 | 6 | 234 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A RAW | Stockton Ports | — | 231 | 199 | 43 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 23 | 51 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 216 | 322 | 296 | 618 | 80 | 286 | 22 | 10 | 289 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 262 | 247 | 43 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 70 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 174 | 215 | 255 | 470 | 81 | 225 | 27 | 4 | 206 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 262 | 242 | 49 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 56 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 202 | 258 | 293 | 551 | 91 | 247 | 21 | 6 | 250 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 308 | 287 | 69 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 67 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 240 | 276 | 289 | 565 | 49 | 305 | 22 | 4 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 308 | 281 | 76 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 52 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 270 | 319 | 327 | 646 | 57 | 323 | 17 | 6 | 289 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 233 | 218 | 32 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 58 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 147 | 191 | 165 | 356 | 18 | 199 | 25 | 5 | 163 | -4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 233 | 213 | 38 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 45 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 178 | 239 | 202 | 441 | 23 | 225 | 19 | 7 | 206 | -4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 361 | 338 | 65 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 70 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 192 | 244 | 234 | 477 | 41 | 237 | 19 | 5 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 361 | 328 | 78 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 27 | 55 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 238 | 307 | 299 | 606 | 61 | 278 | 15 | 7 | 281 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A MLE | Stockton Ports | — | 231 | 206 | 40 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 68 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 194 | 274 | 267 | 541 | 73 | 272 | 29 | 6 | 234 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 262 | 247 | 43 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 70 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 174 | 215 | 255 | 470 | 81 | 223 | 27 | 4 | 206 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 308 | 291 | 69 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 67 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 237 | 276 | 285 | 561 | 48 | 297 | 22 | 4 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 233 | 219 | 32 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 58 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 146 | 191 | 164 | 356 | 18 | 196 | 25 | 5 | 163 | -4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 361 | 335 | 65 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 70 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 194 | 244 | 236 | 480 | 42 | 238 | 19 | 5 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 233 | 219 | 32 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 58 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 146 | 191 | 164 | 356 | 18 | 196 | 25 | 5 | 163 | -4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 361 | 335 | 65 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 70 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 194 | 244 | 236 | 480 | 42 | 238 | 19 | 5 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB MLE | OAK | 0% | 380 | 354 | 74 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 83 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 211 | 260 | 278 | 538 | 67 | 267 | 22 | 5 | 244 | 52 | -22 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +8 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB CTX | OAK | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 218 | 266 | 289 | 555 | 71 | 275 | 0 | 0 | 251 | 52 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 30 | MLB MLE | OAK | 22% | 212 | 197 | 41 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 47 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 210 | 259 | 277 | 537 | 67 | 266 | 22 | 5 | 244 | 51 | -12 | +0 | -2 | +2 | +5 | -0.8 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB CTX | OAK | 22% | 46 | 44 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 216 | 265 | 288 | 553 | 72 | 275 | 22 | 4 | 251 | 51 | -3 | +0 | -0 | +0 | +1 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 46 | 44 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 205 | 239 | 250 | 489 | 45 | 265 | 22 | 4 | 251 | 36 | -3 | +0 | -0 | +0 | +1 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 622 | 127 | 28 | 0 | 0 | 28 | 141 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 204 | 238 | 249 | 488 | 45 | 264 | 22 | 4 | 251 | 36 | -38 | +3 | -6 | +7 | +14 | -2.1 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1762 | 1638 | 320 | 45 | 7 | 10 | 85 | 414 | 23 | 21 | 12 | 195 | 245 | 250 | 495 | 54 | 254 | 23 | 5 | 222 | 36 | -21 | +0 | -2 | +4 | +8 | -1.2 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 604 | 119 | 17 | 3 | 4 | 31 | 153 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 197 | 245 | 255 | 500 | 58 | 256 | 24 | 5 | 222 | 36 | -38 | +0 | -4 | +7 | +14 | -2.1 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2025 A+Lansing Lugnuts · 186 PAwOBA .272 → .206 (−66)K% 14.5% → 19.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.52% | ÷0.969 | ×1.270 | — | — | 19.02% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.68% | ÷1.048 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.948 | 6.22% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.54% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.948 | 0.40% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.14% | ÷1.078 | ×0.920 | ×1.033 | ×0.948 | 18.51% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.57% | ÷1.199 | ×0.810 | ×1.033 | ×0.948 | 2.36% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×1.033 | ×0.948 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.43% | ÷0.921 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.948 | 1.18% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 84, 1B 116, 2B 140, 3B 130, K 94, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 22.8 → −5.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.033.
Result: wOBA .272 → .206; ISO .066 → .049; BABIP .261 → .211. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAMidland RockHounds · 159 PAwOBA .293 → .245 (−48)K% 15.7% → 19.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.72% | ÷0.988 | ×1.220 | — | — | 19.42% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.66% | ÷1.078 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.968 | 3.56% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.14% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.968 | 2.65% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.67% | ÷1.012 | ×0.920 | ×1.045 | ×0.968 | 24.50% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.33% | ÷1.131 | ×0.840 | ×1.045 | ×0.968 | 2.50% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.83% | ÷1.150 | ×0.940 | ×1.045 | ×0.968 | 0.69% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.83% | ÷1.043 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.968 | 0.62% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 109, 1B 102, 2B 126, 3B 130, K 98, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 24.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.045.
Result: wOBA .293 → .245; ISO .062 → .047; BABIP .311 → .279. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 16 PAwOBA .110 → .093 (−17)K% 18.8% → 21.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.75% | ÷1.027 | ×1.200 | — | — | 21.92% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 0.00% | ÷0.970 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.38% | ÷1.052 | ×0.930 | — | ×0.992 | 13.49% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.988 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.183 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 137, 1B 110, 2B 98, 3B 100, K 105, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .110 → .093; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .154 → .135. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAMidland RockHounds · 118 PAwOBA .201 → .163 (−38)K% 18.6% → 23.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.64% | ÷0.967 | ×1.220 | — | — | 23.53% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.93% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.978 | 4.06% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.54% | ÷1.060 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×0.978 | 17.41% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.45% | ÷1.170 | ×0.840 | ×1.050 | ×0.978 | 2.54% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.940 | ×1.050 | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.940 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 112, 2B 134, 3B 130, K 93, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .201 → .163; ISO .028 → .020; BABIP .227 → .197. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Lansing Lugnuts · 115 PAwOBA .204 → .162 (−41)K% 20.0% → 26.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.00% | ÷0.974 | ×1.270 | — | — | 26.07% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.70% | ÷0.974 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.958 | 6.07% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.99% | ÷1.036 | ×0.920 | ×1.040 | ×0.958 | 18.56% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.992 | ×0.810 | ×1.040 | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.23% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×1.040 | ×0.958 | 0.91% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.867 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 73, 1B 107, 2B 98, 3B 130, K 95, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 22.8 → −4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.040.
Result: wOBA .204 → .162; ISO .019 → .014; BABIP .222 → .195. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAMidland RockHounds · 199 PAwOBA .297 → .264 (−33)K% 14.6% → 18.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.57% | ÷0.981 | ×1.220 | — | — | 18.12% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.04% | ÷1.031 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 4.72% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.50% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.988 | 0.43% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.17% | ÷1.021 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×0.988 | 24.46% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.37% | ÷1.011 | ×0.840 | ×1.050 | ×0.988 | 4.63% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.67% | ÷1.150 | ×0.940 | ×1.050 | ×0.988 | 0.57% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.67% | ÷0.957 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 0.55% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 104, 2B 102, 3B 130, K 96, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .297 → .264; ISO .073 → .064; BABIP .318 → .292. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Lansing Lugnuts · 109 PAwOBA .263 → .219 (−44)K% 21.1% → 28.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.10% | ÷0.938 | ×1.270 | — | — | 28.58% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 2.75% | ÷1.036 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.968 | 1.83% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.83% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.968 | 1.40% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.00% | ÷0.991 | ×0.920 | ×1.031 | ×0.968 | 27.80% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.75% | ÷0.946 | ×0.810 | ×1.031 | ×0.968 | 3.21% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×1.031 | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.209 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 142, 1B 98, 2B 89, 3B 130, K 88, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 22.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.031.
Result: wOBA .263 → .219; ISO .029 → .023; BABIP .333 → .306. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+Lansing Lugnuts · 167 PAwOBA .225 → .186 (−40)K% 23.4% → 29.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.35% | ÷1.011 | ×1.270 | — | — | 29.35% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.59% | ÷1.020 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.978 | 4.49% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.20% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.978 | 0.93% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.24% | ÷0.996 | ×0.920 | ×1.017 | ×0.978 | 19.51% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.31% | ÷0.967 | ×0.810 | ×1.017 | ×0.978 | 4.42% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | ×1.017 | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.944 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 89, 1B 99, 2B 93, 3B 100, K 102, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.017.
Result: wOBA .225 → .186; ISO .039 → .032; BABIP .265 → .239. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).