Jose Lozada
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 28 | AAA/AA/INTL3 orgs | 294 | .261/.311/.341 | 3 | 7 | 64 | — | .259/.302/.301 |
| 2015 | 29 | AAA/AA/INTL3 orgs | 336 | .305/.393/.347 | 0 | 8 | 100 | — | .287/.343/.320 |
| 2016 | 30 | AAA/INTL2 orgs | 277 | .195/.271/.241 | 0 | 4 | 34 | — | .138/.159/.171 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2008 | 22 | A | Hagerstown Suns | — | 247 | 224 | 48 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 47 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 214 | 267 | 321 | 588 | 107 | 256 | 19 | 6 | 258 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 23 | A | Hagerstown Suns | — | 205 | 186 | 46 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 34 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 247 | 307 | 301 | 608 | 54 | 301 | 17 | 7 | 276 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 24 | A+ | Potomac Nationals | — | 385 | 344 | 88 | 18 | 5 | 6 | 21 | 63 | 8 | 1 | 9 | 256 | 314 | 390 | 703 | 134 | 290 | 16 | 5 | 305 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 25 | A+ | Potomac Nationals | — | 368 | 313 | 80 | 22 | 5 | 6 | 33 | 69 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 256 | 342 | 415 | 757 | 160 | 308 | 19 | 9 | 327 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 26 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | — | 330 | 286 | 69 | 11 | 1 | 5 | 27 | 56 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 241 | 328 | 339 | 667 | 98 | 281 | 17 | 8 | 301 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 26 | INTL | Leones de Ponce | — | 65 | 55 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 182 | 237 | 218 | 455 | 36 | 238 | 23 | 2 | 196 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 27 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | — | 230 | 202 | 42 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 53 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 208 | 283 | 257 | 540 | 50 | 272 | 23 | 7 | 246 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 27 | INTL | Leones de Ponce | — | 32 | 29 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 276 | 344 | 379 | 723 | 103 | 320 | 12 | 9 | 326 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 28 | AAA | Syracuse Chiefs | — | 130 | 114 | 27 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 30 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 237 | 315 | 281 | 596 | 44 | 310 | 23 | 9 | 273 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 28 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | — | 54 | 51 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 373 | 385 | 412 | 796 | 39 | 404 | 9 | 2 | 345 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 28 | INTL | Senadores de San Juan | — | 110 | 99 | 23 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 24 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 232 | 269 | 374 | 643 | 141 | 288 | 22 | 5 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 29 | AAA | Syracuse Chiefs | — | 33 | 28 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 286 | 394 | 321 | 715 | 36 | 364 | 18 | 15 | 337 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 29 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | — | 137 | 117 | 35 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 22 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 299 | 383 | 333 | 717 | 34 | 365 | 16 | 12 | 323 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 29 | INTL | Puerto Rico | — | 166 | 140 | 44 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 18 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 314 | 400 | 364 | 764 | 50 | 352 | 11 | 9 | 341 | 117 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 30 | AAA | Syracuse Chiefs | — | 132 | 121 | 19 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 27 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 157 | 190 | 190 | 381 | 33 | 202 | 20 | 4 | 168 | -18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 30 | INTL | Cangrejeros de Santurce | — | 145 | 120 | 28 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 22 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 233 | 343 | 292 | 635 | 58 | 283 | 15 | 12 | 290 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2008 | 22 | A MLE | Hagerstown Suns | — | 247 | 229 | 43 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 63 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 188 | 225 | 271 | 496 | 83 | 237 | 26 | 4 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 23 | A MLE | Hagerstown Suns | — | 205 | 192 | 42 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 46 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 219 | 257 | 266 | 523 | 47 | 279 | 22 | 4 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 24 | A+ MLE | Potomac Nationals | — | 385 | 351 | 75 | 13 | 4 | 5 | 14 | 91 | 8 | 1 | 9 | 214 | 260 | 316 | 576 | 103 | 252 | 24 | 4 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 25 | A+ MLE | Potomac Nationals | — | 368 | 325 | 67 | 17 | 4 | 5 | 21 | 100 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 206 | 271 | 329 | 600 | 123 | 262 | 27 | 6 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 26 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 330 | 296 | 69 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 68 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 233 | 294 | 314 | 608 | 81 | 275 | 21 | 5 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 27 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 230 | 207 | 42 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 62 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 203 | 260 | 251 | 511 | 48 | 264 | 27 | 5 | 222 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 28 | AAA MLE | Syracuse Chiefs | — | 130 | 118 | 26 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 37 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 220 | 276 | 263 | 538 | 42 | 292 | 28 | 6 | 234 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 28 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 54 | 51 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 353 | 365 | 392 | 758 | 39 | 370 | 11 | 2 | 314 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 29 | AAA MLE | Syracuse Chiefs | — | 33 | 29 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 241 | 333 | 276 | 609 | 34 | 318 | 21 | 12 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 29 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 137 | 124 | 37 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 26 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 298 | 346 | 331 | 677 | 32 | 355 | 19 | 7 | 295 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 30 | AAA MLE | Syracuse Chiefs | — | 132 | 123 | 17 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 34 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 138 | 159 | 171 | 329 | 33 | 183 | 26 | 2 | 142 | -18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 22 | A MLE | Hagerstown Suns | — | 247 | 229 | 43 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 63 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 188 | 225 | 271 | 496 | 83 | 247 | 26 | 4 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 22 | A RAW | Hagerstown Suns | — | 247 | 224 | 48 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 47 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 214 | 267 | 321 | 588 | 107 | 256 | 19 | 6 | 258 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 23 | A MLE | Hagerstown Suns | — | 205 | 192 | 42 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 46 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 219 | 257 | 266 | 523 | 47 | 286 | 22 | 4 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 23 | A RAW | Hagerstown Suns | — | 205 | 186 | 46 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 34 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 247 | 307 | 301 | 608 | 54 | 301 | 17 | 7 | 276 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 24 | A+ MLE | Potomac Nationals | — | 385 | 351 | 75 | 13 | 4 | 5 | 14 | 91 | 8 | 1 | 9 | 214 | 260 | 316 | 576 | 103 | 266 | 24 | 4 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 24 | A+ RAW | Potomac Nationals | — | 385 | 344 | 88 | 18 | 5 | 6 | 21 | 63 | 8 | 1 | 9 | 256 | 314 | 390 | 703 | 134 | 290 | 16 | 5 | 305 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 25 | A+ MLE | Potomac Nationals | — | 368 | 325 | 67 | 17 | 4 | 5 | 21 | 100 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 206 | 271 | 329 | 600 | 123 | 279 | 27 | 6 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 25 | A+ RAW | Potomac Nationals | — | 368 | 313 | 80 | 22 | 5 | 6 | 33 | 69 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 256 | 342 | 415 | 757 | 160 | 308 | 19 | 9 | 327 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 395 | 349 | 83 | 12 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 81 | 13 | 2 | 3 | 238 | 304 | 321 | 625 | 83 | 291 | 21 | 5 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 26 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 395 | 341 | 79 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 28 | 71 | 13 | 2 | 3 | 232 | 314 | 320 | 634 | 88 | 274 | 18 | 7 | 284 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 27 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 262 | 238 | 48 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 71 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 202 | 255 | 248 | 503 | 46 | 278 | 27 | 5 | 222 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 27 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 262 | 231 | 50 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 57 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 216 | 290 | 273 | 563 | 56 | 278 | 22 | 8 | 256 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 28 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 294 | 268 | 68 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 70 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 254 | 293 | 284 | 577 | 30 | 337 | 24 | 5 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 28 | AAA RAW | 3 teams | — | 294 | 264 | 69 | 12 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 59 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 261 | 311 | 341 | 652 | 80 | 324 | 20 | 6 | 285 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 29 | INTL MLE | 3 teams | — | 336 | 295 | 86 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 26 | 66 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 292 | 359 | 322 | 681 | 31 | 369 | 20 | 8 | 291 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 29 | INTL RAW | 3 teams | — | 336 | 285 | 87 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 36 | 46 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 305 | 393 | 347 | 740 | 42 | 358 | 14 | 11 | 333 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 30 | INTL MLE | 2 teams | — | 277 | 258 | 36 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 72 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 140 | 165 | 171 | 336 | 31 | 193 | 26 | 2 | 142 | -18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 30 | INTL RAW | 2 teams | — | 277 | 241 | 47 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 23 | 49 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 195 | 271 | 241 | 511 | 46 | 244 | 18 | 8 | 232 | -18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 22 | A MLE | Hagerstown Suns | — | 247 | 234 | 43 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 63 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 184 | 225 | 265 | 490 | 81 | 237 | 26 | 4 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 23 | A MLE | Hagerstown Suns | — | 205 | 193 | 42 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 46 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 218 | 257 | 264 | 522 | 47 | 279 | 22 | 4 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 24 | A+ MLE | Potomac Nationals | — | 385 | 360 | 75 | 13 | 4 | 5 | 14 | 91 | 8 | 1 | 9 | 208 | 260 | 308 | 568 | 100 | 252 | 24 | 4 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 25 | A+ MLE | Potomac Nationals | — | 368 | 336 | 67 | 17 | 4 | 5 | 21 | 100 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 199 | 271 | 318 | 590 | 119 | 262 | 27 | 6 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 395 | 359 | 83 | 12 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 81 | 13 | 2 | 3 | 231 | 304 | 312 | 616 | 81 | 275 | 21 | 5 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 27 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 262 | 243 | 48 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 71 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 198 | 255 | 243 | 498 | 45 | 264 | 27 | 5 | 222 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 28 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 294 | 277 | 68 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 70 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 245 | 293 | 274 | 568 | 29 | 315 | 24 | 5 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 29 | INTL MLE | 3 teams | — | 336 | 302 | 86 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 26 | 66 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 285 | 359 | 315 | 673 | 30 | 348 | 20 | 8 | 291 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 30 | INTL MLE | 2 teams | — | 277 | 267 | 36 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 72 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 135 | 165 | 165 | 330 | 30 | 183 | 26 | 2 | 142 | -18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2769 | 2505 | 548 | 78 | 17 | 19 | 131 | 660 | 45 | 39 | 37 | 219 | 270 | 286 | 556 | 67 | 285 | 24 | 5 | 241 | 49 | -168 | -7 | +0 | +30 | +60 | -8.7 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 588 | 128 | 18 | 4 | 4 | 31 | 155 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 218 | 270 | 282 | 553 | 65 | 284 | 24 | 5 | 241 | 49 | -39 | -2 | +0 | +7 | +14 | -2.1 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2016 AAASyracuse Chiefs · 132 PAwOBA .164 → .142 (−22)K% 20.5% → 25.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.45% | ÷0.949 | ×1.200 | — | — | 25.86% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.79% | ÷1.110 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.962 | 2.26% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.962 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.02% | ÷1.048 | ×0.930 | ×1.050 | ×0.962 | 15.26% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.13% | ÷0.959 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×0.962 | 1.86% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.06% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×1.050 | ×0.962 | 1.16% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.978 | ×0.840 | — | ×0.962 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 110, 2B 92, 3B 80, K 90, BB 122 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .164 → .142; ISO .033 → .033; BABIP .202 → .183. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AAHarrisburg Senators · 137 PAwOBA .315 → .295 (−20)K% 16.1% → 19.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.06% | ÷1.018 | ×1.220 | — | — | 19.24% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.95% | ÷1.052 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.948 | 6.91% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.948 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 33.68% | ÷0.962 | ×0.970 | ×1.029 | ×0.948 | 33.14% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.11% | ÷1.070 | ×0.860 | ×1.029 | ×0.948 | 1.65% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.05% | ÷0.916 | ×0.950 | ×1.029 | ×0.948 | 1.07% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.986 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.948 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 92, 2B 114, 3B 83, K 104, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 24.8 → −5.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.029.
Result: wOBA .315 → .295; ISO .034 → .033; BABIP .365 → .355. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AAASyracuse Chiefs · 33 PAwOBA .329 → .274 (−55)K% 18.2% → 20.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.18% | ÷1.043 | ×1.200 | — | — | 20.93% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.15% | ÷0.938 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.972 | 10.84% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.972 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 31.82% | ÷1.010 | ×0.930 | — | ×0.972 | 28.47% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.55% | ÷1.088 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.972 | 3.37% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.947 | ×0.970 | — | ×0.972 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.183 | ×0.840 | — | ×0.972 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 137, 1B 102, 2B 118, 3B 89, K 109, BB 88 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .329 → .274; ISO .036 → .027; BABIP .364 → .318. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AAASyracuse Chiefs · 130 PAwOBA .268 → .234 (−34)K% 23.1% → 28.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.08% | ÷0.965 | ×1.200 | — | — | 28.69% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.23% | ÷0.972 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.982 | 6.43% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.77% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.982 | 0.71% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.57% | ÷1.003 | ×0.930 | ×1.050 | ×0.982 | 27.31% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.38% | ÷1.027 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×0.982 | 1.98% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.063 | ×0.970 | ×1.050 | ×0.982 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.19% | ÷0.985 | ×0.840 | — | ×0.982 | 1.00% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 101, 2B 105, 3B 113, K 93, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .268 → .234; ISO .044 → .036; BABIP .310 → .292. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AAHarrisburg Senators · 54 PAwOBA .342 → .314 (−28)K% 9.3% → 11.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 9.26% | ÷0.955 | ×1.220 | — | — | 11.83% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 1.85% | ÷1.032 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.958 | 1.20% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 36.96% | ÷0.992 | ×0.970 | — | ×0.958 | 34.60% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.35% | ÷1.109 | ×0.860 | — | ×0.958 | 3.23% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.950 | — | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.991 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 98, 2B 122, 3B 100, K 91, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 24.8 → −4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .342 → .314; ISO .039 → .030; BABIP .404 → .370. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 AAHarrisburg Senators · 230 PAwOBA .243 → .222 (−21)K% 23.0% → 27.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.04% | ÷1.043 | ×1.220 | — | — | 26.96% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.39% | ÷0.990 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.968 | 5.06% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.74% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.968 | 1.43% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.49% | ÷1.011 | ×0.970 | ×1.050 | ×0.968 | 22.91% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.36% | ÷0.883 | ×0.860 | ×1.050 | ×0.968 | 3.32% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.67% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | ×1.050 | ×0.968 | 0.56% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.67% | ÷1.012 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.968 | 0.50% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 102, 2B 77, 3B 130, K 109, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 24.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .243 → .222; ISO .050 → .045; BABIP .272 → .264. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2012 AAHarrisburg Senators · 330 PAwOBA .293 → .268 (−24)K% 17.0% → 20.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.97% | ÷1.006 | ×1.220 | — | — | 20.57% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.27% | ÷0.989 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.978 | 5.03% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.03% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.978 | 2.52% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.61% | ÷0.967 | ×0.970 | ×1.025 | ×0.978 | 22.75% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.78% | ÷0.982 | ×0.860 | ×1.025 | ×0.978 | 4.20% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.43% | ÷1.015 | ×0.950 | ×1.025 | ×0.978 | 0.41% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.17% | ÷0.976 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.978 | 1.70% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 93, 2B 96, 3B 103, K 101, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.025.
Result: wOBA .293 → .268; ISO .098 → .084; BABIP .281 → .275. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2011 A+Potomac Nationals · 368 PAwOBA .320 → .254 (−66)K% 18.8% → 27.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.75% | ÷0.974 | ×1.420 | — | — | 27.33% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.97% | ÷0.973 | ×0.630 | — | ×0.968 | 5.62% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.17% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×0.968 | 1.81% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.26% | ÷1.019 | ×0.940 | ×0.986 | ×0.968 | 16.97% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.02% | ÷0.991 | ×0.830 | ×0.986 | ×0.968 | 7.21% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.05% | ÷0.900 | ×0.800 | ×0.986 | ×0.968 | 1.74% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.46% | ÷1.045 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.968 | 2.05% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 109, 1B 104, 2B 98, 3B 80, K 95, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 22.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.986.
Result: wOBA .320 → .254; ISO .160 → .129; BABIP .308 → .262. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .