Justin Toole
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | 26 | AAA/AA/A+3 orgs | 357 | .253/.299/.287 | 0 | 5 | 46 | — | .242/.272/.272 |
| 2014 | 27 | AACLE | 257 | .275/.329/.339 | 0 | 3 | 60 | — | .242/.286/.296 |
| 2015 | 28 | AAA/AACLE | 221 | .242/.280/.285 | 0 | 1 | 40 | — | .229/.257/.267 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2009 | 22 | ROK | AZL Indians | — | 52 | 47 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 340 | 404 | 383 | 787 | 43 | 364 | 6 | 4 | 362 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 23 | A+ | Kinston Indians | — | 81 | 66 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 212 | 325 | 212 | 537 | 246 | 11 | 11 | 252 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2011 | 24 | A+ | Kinston Indians | — | 363 | 329 | 85 | 20 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 51 | 9 | 17 | 3 | 258 | 311 | 325 | 636 | 67 | 306 | 14 | 4 | 284 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 25 | AAA | Columbus Clippers | — | 20 | 18 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 333 | 333 | 389 | 722 | 56 | 353 | 5 | 0 | 290 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 25 | AA | Akron Aeros | — | 27 | 25 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 80 | 115 | 80 | 195 | 95 | 15 | 0 | 94 | -57 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2012 | 25 | A+ | Carolina Mudcats | — | 292 | 270 | 65 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 46 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 241 | 283 | 296 | 580 | 56 | 286 | 16 | 4 | 259 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 26 | AAA | Columbus Clippers | — | 67 | 64 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 250 | 262 | 266 | 527 | 16 | 281 | 10 | 1 | 232 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 26 | AA | Akron Aeros | — | 128 | 113 | 35 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 310 | 381 | 363 | 744 | 53 | 350 | 10 | 9 | 336 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 26 | A+ | Carolina Mudcats | — | 162 | 147 | 31 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 17 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 211 | 247 | 238 | 485 | 27 | 233 | 10 | 4 | 213 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 27 | AA | Akron RubberDucks | — | 257 | 236 | 65 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 32 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 275 | 329 | 339 | 668 | 64 | 317 | 12 | 5 | 303 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 28 | AAA | Columbus Clippers | — | 30 | 29 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 276 | 300 | 276 | 576 | 348 | 20 | 3 | 265 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2015 | 28 | AA | Akron RubberDucks | — | 191 | 178 | 42 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 31 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 236 | 277 | 287 | 563 | 51 | 282 | 16 | 5 | 253 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2009 | 22 | ROK MLE | AZL Indians | — | 52 | 48 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 250 | 308 | 271 | 579 | 21 | 283 | 8 | 2 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 23 | A+ MLE | Kinston Indians | — | 81 | 69 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 203 | 286 | 203 | 489 | 235 | 15 | 7 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2011 | 24 | A+ MLE | Kinston Indians | — | 363 | 336 | 78 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 72 | 9 | 17 | 3 | 232 | 271 | 295 | 566 | 62 | 282 | 20 | 2 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 25 | AAA MLE | Columbus Clippers | — | 20 | 18 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 333 | 333 | 389 | 722 | 56 | 328 | 5 | 0 | 288 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 25 | AA MLE | Akron Aeros | — | 27 | 25 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 80 | 115 | 80 | 195 | 89 | 19 | 0 | 84 | -57 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2012 | 25 | A+ MLE | Carolina Mudcats | — | 292 | 275 | 57 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 68 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 207 | 238 | 258 | 496 | 51 | 256 | 23 | 2 | 209 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 26 | AAA MLE | Columbus Clippers | — | 67 | 64 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 250 | 262 | 266 | 527 | 16 | 279 | 12 | 1 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 26 | AA MLE | Akron Aeros | — | 128 | 117 | 34 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 291 | 341 | 333 | 675 | 43 | 331 | 12 | 6 | 298 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 26 | A+ MLE | Carolina Mudcats | — | 162 | 150 | 30 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 24 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 200 | 221 | 227 | 447 | 27 | 220 | 15 | 2 | 193 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 27 | AA MLE | Akron RubberDucks | — | 257 | 240 | 58 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 40 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 242 | 286 | 296 | 582 | 54 | 287 | 16 | 4 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 28 | AAA MLE | Columbus Clippers | — | 30 | 29 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 241 | 267 | 241 | 508 | 316 | 23 | 3 | 221 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2015 | 28 | AA MLE | Akron RubberDucks | — | 191 | 181 | 41 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 37 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 227 | 255 | 271 | 526 | 44 | 273 | 19 | 4 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 22 | ROK MLE | AZL Indians | — | 52 | 48 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 250 | 308 | 271 | 579 | 21 | 273 | 8 | 2 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 22 | ROK RAW | AZL Indians | — | 52 | 47 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 340 | 404 | 383 | 787 | 43 | 364 | 6 | 4 | 362 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 23 | A+ MLE | Kinston Indians | — | 81 | 69 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 203 | 286 | 203 | 489 | 246 | 15 | 7 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2010 | 23 | A+ RAW | Kinston Indians | — | 81 | 66 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 212 | 325 | 212 | 537 | 246 | 11 | 11 | 252 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2011 | 24 | A+ MLE | Kinston Indians | — | 363 | 336 | 78 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 72 | 9 | 17 | 3 | 232 | 271 | 295 | 566 | 62 | 295 | 20 | 2 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 24 | A+ RAW | Kinston Indians | — | 363 | 329 | 85 | 20 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 51 | 9 | 17 | 3 | 258 | 311 | 325 | 636 | 67 | 306 | 14 | 4 | 284 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 25 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 339 | 318 | 65 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 74 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 204 | 233 | 252 | 485 | 47 | 262 | 22 | 2 | 204 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 25 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 339 | 313 | 73 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 51 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 233 | 273 | 284 | 557 | 51 | 275 | 15 | 4 | 248 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 26 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 357 | 331 | 80 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 49 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 242 | 272 | 272 | 544 | 30 | 281 | 14 | 4 | 237 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 26 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 357 | 324 | 82 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 37 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 253 | 299 | 287 | 586 | 34 | 283 | 10 | 6 | 261 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 27 | AA MLE | Akron RubberDucks | — | 257 | 240 | 58 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 40 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 242 | 286 | 296 | 582 | 54 | 289 | 16 | 4 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 27 | AA RAW | Akron RubberDucks | — | 257 | 236 | 65 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 32 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 275 | 329 | 339 | 668 | 64 | 317 | 12 | 5 | 303 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 28 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 221 | 210 | 48 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 44 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 229 | 257 | 267 | 524 | 38 | 286 | 20 | 4 | 228 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 28 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 221 | 207 | 50 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 37 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 242 | 280 | 285 | 565 | 43 | 291 | 17 | 5 | 255 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 22 | ROK MLE | AZL Indians | — | 52 | 48 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 250 | 308 | 271 | 579 | 21 | 283 | 8 | 2 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 23 | A+ MLE | Kinston Indians | — | 81 | 73 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 192 | 286 | 192 | 477 | 235 | 15 | 7 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2011 | 24 | A+ MLE | Kinston Indians | — | 363 | 342 | 78 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 72 | 9 | 17 | 3 | 228 | 271 | 289 | 561 | 61 | 282 | 20 | 2 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 25 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 339 | 324 | 65 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 74 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 201 | 233 | 247 | 480 | 46 | 247 | 22 | 2 | 204 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 26 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 357 | 340 | 80 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 49 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 235 | 272 | 265 | 537 | 29 | 271 | 14 | 4 | 237 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 27 | AA MLE | Akron RubberDucks | — | 257 | 240 | 58 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 40 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 242 | 286 | 296 | 582 | 54 | 287 | 16 | 4 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 28 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 221 | 211 | 48 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 44 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 227 | 257 | 265 | 522 | 38 | 279 | 20 | 4 | 228 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1670 | 1552 | 355 | 53 | 6 | 1 | 54 | 295 | 25 | 33 | 14 | 229 | 266 | 273 | 539 | 44 | 280 | 18 | 3 | 233 | 44 | -112 | +1 | +0 | +6 | +36 | -7.0 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 604 | 138 | 21 | 2 | 0 | 21 | 115 | 10 | 13 | 5 | 228 | 266 | 270 | 536 | 41 | 280 | 18 | 3 | 233 | 44 | -44 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -2.7 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2015 AAAkron RubberDucks · 191 PAwOBA .249 → .229 (−20)K% 16.2% → 19.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.23% | ÷1.019 | ×1.220 | — | — | 19.44% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.24% | ÷0.934 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.958 | 3.76% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.13% | ÷0.971 | ×0.970 | ×1.047 | ×0.958 | 23.16% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.76% | ÷1.053 | ×0.860 | ×1.047 | ×0.958 | 3.90% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.68% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | ×1.047 | ×0.958 | 0.56% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.842 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 68, 1B 94, 2B 111, 3B 130, K 104, BB 87 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 24.8 → −4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.047.
Result: wOBA .249 → .229; ISO .051 → .041; BABIP .282 → .273. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AAAColumbus Clippers · 30 PAwOBA .258 → .221 (−37)K% 20.0% → 23.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.00% | ÷1.009 | ×1.200 | — | — | 23.78% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.33% | ÷1.068 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.982 | 2.12% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.982 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 34.78% | ÷1.005 | ×0.930 | — | ×0.982 | 31.62% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.019 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.982 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | — | ×0.982 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.217 | ×0.840 | — | ×0.982 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 143, 1B 101, 2B 104, 3B 80, K 102, BB 114 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .258 → .221; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .348 → .316. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AAAkron RubberDucks · 257 PAwOBA .296 → .257 (−39)K% 12.5% → 15.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.45% | ÷0.965 | ×1.220 | — | — | 15.74% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.45% | ÷1.008 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.968 | 3.66% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.95% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.968 | 1.60% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷1.064 | ×0.970 | ×1.035 | ×0.968 | 22.81% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.37% | ÷0.992 | ×0.860 | ×1.035 | ×0.968 | 5.53% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.49% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×1.035 | ×0.968 | 0.52% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.881 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 76, 1B 113, 2B 98, 3B 80, K 93, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 24.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.035.
Result: wOBA .296 → .257; ISO .064 → .057; BABIP .317 → .287. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 A+Carolina Mudcats · 162 PAwOBA .211 → .193 (−19)K% 10.5% → 15.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 10.49% | ÷0.994 | ×1.420 | — | — | 15.00% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.32% | ÷1.013 | ×0.630 | — | ×0.958 | 2.58% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.77% | ÷0.979 | ×0.940 | ×1.038 | ×0.958 | 19.83% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.08% | ÷0.951 | ×0.830 | ×1.038 | ×0.958 | 2.67% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.800 | ×1.038 | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.024 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 96, 2B 90, 3B 130, K 99, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 22.8 → −4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.038.
Result: wOBA .211 → .193; ISO .027 → .024; BABIP .233 → .220. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 AAAkron Aeros · 128 PAwOBA .328 → .298 (−30)K% 10.2% → 12.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 10.16% | ÷0.984 | ×1.220 | — | — | 12.60% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.38% | ÷1.029 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.978 | 6.24% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.78% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.978 | 0.65% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.00% | ÷1.037 | ×0.970 | ×1.050 | ×0.978 | 27.85% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.00% | ÷1.001 | ×0.860 | ×1.050 | ×0.978 | 5.30% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.049 | ×0.950 | ×1.050 | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.879 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 76, 1B 107, 2B 100, 3B 110, K 97, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .328 → .298; ISO .053 → .048; BABIP .350 → .331. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 AAAColumbus Clippers · 67 PAwOBA .226 → .225 (−1)K% 10.4% → 12.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 10.45% | ÷1.013 | ×1.200 | — | — | 12.37% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 1.49% | ÷0.986 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 1.05% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.32% | ÷0.980 | ×0.930 | ×1.050 | ×1.003 | 26.29% |
| Doubles /BIP | 1.75% | ÷0.933 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×1.003 | 1.64% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×1.050 | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.111 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 122, 1B 96, 2B 87, 3B 80, K 103, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .226 → .225; ISO .016 → .015; BABIP .281 → .279. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2012 A+Carolina Mudcats · 292 PAwOBA .253 → .209 (−45)K% 15.8% → 23.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.75% | ÷0.963 | ×1.420 | — | — | 23.22% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.11% | ÷1.035 | ×0.630 | — | ×0.968 | 2.42% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.37% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×0.968 | 1.14% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.55% | ÷1.054 | ×0.940 | ×1.050 | ×0.968 | 22.25% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.68% | ÷1.054 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×0.968 | 2.14% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.34% | ÷0.900 | ×0.800 | ×1.050 | ×0.968 | 1.21% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.45% | ÷0.895 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.968 | 0.43% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 79, 1B 111, 2B 111, 3B 80, K 93, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 22.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .253 → .209; ISO .056 → .046; BABIP .286 → .256. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2012 AAAkron Aeros · 27 PAwOBA .092 → .084 (−8)K% 14.8% → 18.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.81% | ÷0.979 | ×1.220 | — | — | 18.46% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 0.00% | ÷0.966 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.70% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 3.11% |
| Singles /BIP | 9.52% | ÷1.027 | ×0.970 | — | ×0.988 | 8.88% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.035 | ×0.860 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.142 | ×0.950 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.903 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 81, 1B 105, 2B 107, 3B 128, K 96, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .092 → .084; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .095 → .089. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).