Daniel Lopez

OF Columbia Fireflies
Age 21 L/L 6'2" / 165 lbs A HR -15%K -8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037
Overview
APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038
ETA2029MLB%0%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202418ROKDSL Royals Ve…175.268/.366/.40321135—.168/.250/.239
202519ROKKC212.238/.293/.39441330—.176/.212/.286
202620A/ROKKC256.255/.366/.35613661—.214/.303/.302
2027PROJMLE21MLBKC366.200/.258/.28841054-0.5
2028PROJ34% MLB22MLBKC68.204/.263/.3021261-0.2
2029PROJ48% MLB23MLBKC141.209/.269/.3142366-0.3
Next 3 projected WAR -1.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Ext$0.0M2031Ext$0.0M2032Ext$0.9M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+3
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A
Speed99
Whiff%51
K%44
Z-Con%38
ISO36
wOBA33
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.1 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 94%
CompsMichael Swinson (age 21) · Angel Aponte (age 21) · Kyle Nevin (age 21)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 151 proj PA
wRC+†54
AVG/OBP/SLG.199 / .256 / .286
PA151
HR1
K%27
BB%6
ISO88
MLB%0%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -8.3 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-8BATRUN: +0.4 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+0RUNFLD: +0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: -0.9 runs (Positional adjustment)-1POSREP: +3.3 runs (Replacement-level credit)+3REPTotal WAR: -0.50-0.5WAR
trajectory · projected WAR by year
-0.5-0.2-0.3272829
Tools · ContractCON 35 / POW 35
Toolsscout grade
CONTACT35
scouting grade only
POWER35
scouting grade only
EYE25
scouting grade only
SPEED55
scouting grade only
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2032
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2037
First FA Year   2038
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.0M $0.0M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202317 ROKDSL Royals Blue — 174145 45753 23404 84 310419490908 179404 2313 399 57 — — — — — —
202418 ROKDSL Royals Ventura — 175149 401022 20313 115 268366403769 134322 1811 342 35 — — — — — —
202519 ROKACL Royals — 212193 461044 15390 130 238293394687 155278 187 299 30 — — — — — —
202620 AColumbia Fireflies — 186160 36831 17477 264 225326331657 106312 259 301 51 — — — — — —
202620 ROKACL Royals — 7056 19310 11103 103 339471429900 89413 1416 413 88 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202317 ROK MLEDSL Royals Blue — 174152 30432 16504 84 197291303593 105259 299 253 57 — — — — — —
202418 ROK MLEDSL Royals Ventura — 175155 26611 14383 115 168250239489 71205 228 220 35 — — — — — —
202519 ROK MLEACL Royals — 212199 35733 9570 130 176212286498 111219 274 212 30 — — — — — —
202620 A MLEColumbia Fireflies — 186165 33731 12647 264 200283297580 97299 346 243 51 — — — — — —
202620 ROK MLEACL Royals — 7060 15210 7143 103 250357317674 67325 2010 298 88 — — — — — —
202317 ROK MLEDSL Royals Blue — 174152 30432 16504 84 197291303593 105275 299 253 57 — — — — — —
202317 ROK RAWDSL Royals Blue — 174145 45753 23404 84 310419490908 179404 2313 399 57 — — — — — —
202418 ROK MLEDSL Royals Ventura — 175155 26611 14383 115 168250239489 71212 228 220 35 — — — — — —
202418 ROK RAWDSL Royals Ventura — 175149 401022 20313 115 268366403769 134322 1811 342 35 — — — — — —
202519 ROK MLEACL Royals — 212199 35733 9570 130 176212286498 111229 274 212 30 — — — — — —
202519 ROK RAWACL Royals — 212193 461044 15390 130 238293394687 155278 187 299 30 — — — — — —
202620 A MLE2 teams — 256225 47931 197810 367 209299289588 80315 307 258 61 — — — — — —
202620 A RAW2 teams — 256216 551141 285710 367 255366356723 102342 2211 331 61 — — — — — —
202317 ROK MLEDSL Royals Blue — 174152 30432 16504 84 197291303593 105259 299 253 57 — — — — — —
202418 ROK MLEDSL Royals Ventura — 175156 26611 14383 115 167250237487 71205 228 220 35 — — — — — —
202519 ROK MLEACL Royals — 212201 35733 9570 130 174212284495 109219 274 212 30 — — — — — —
202620 A MLE2 teams — 256225 47931 197810 367 209299289588 80306 307 258 61 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202418 ROK MLEDSL Royals Ventura — 175156 26611 14383 115 167250237487 71205 228 220 35 — — — — — —
202519 ROK MLEACL Royals — 212201 35733 9570 130 174212284495 109219 274 212 30 — — — — — —
202620 A MLE2 teams — 256225 47931 197810 367 209299289588 80306 307 258 61 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202721 MLB MLEKC 0% 366337 691434 211005 102 200258288546 88271 276 248 54 -20 +1 +0 -2 +8 -0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202822 MLB MLEKC 34% 199182 38813 12533 51 206265306571 100273 276 258 61 -9 +1 +0 -1 +4 -0.6
202923 MLB MLEKC 48% 290266 561125 18764 72 211271320590 109274 266 266 66 -12 +1 +0 -2 +6 -0.7
202822 MLB CTXKC 34% 6863 13301 4181 20 204263302565 98271 266 256 61 -3 +0 +0 -0 +1 -0.2
202923 MLB CTXKC 48% 141129 26512 9372 31 209269314583 106273 266 263 66 -6 +0 +0 -1 +3 -0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 209192 39813 13553 51 203264302567 99267 266 261 53 -9 +1 +0 -1 +5 -0.5
/ 162G— A+C — 650597 1212539 401719 163 203263300563 97267 266 261 53 -27 +2 +0 -4 +14 -1.6
Career— MLE — 14571318 260511416 9739326 8420 197266294559 96266 277 247 53 -29 +2 +0 -4 +14 -1.8
/ 162G— MLE — 650588 1162367 4317512 379 197266293559 95266 277 247 53 -30 +2 +0 -4 +14 -1.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AColumbia Fireflies · 186 PAwOBA .293 → .243 (−50)K% 25.3% → 34.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA25.27%÷1.000×1.360——34.37%
BB% (unintentional) /PA9.14%÷1.000×0.690—×1.0156.40%
HBP% /PA3.76%—×0.780—×1.0152.98%
Singles /BIP21.24%÷1.000×0.920×1.050×1.01520.82%
Doubles /BIP7.08%÷1.000×0.830×1.050×1.0156.26%
Triples /BIP2.65%÷1.000×0.910×1.050×1.0152.57%
Home runs /BIP0.88%÷1.000×0.800—×1.0150.72%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .293 → .243; ISO .106 → .089; BABIP .312 → .299. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ROKACL Royals · 70 PAwOBA .404 → .298 (−106)K% 14.3% → 20.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA14.29%÷1.000×1.440——20.57%
BB% (unintentional) /PA15.71%÷1.000×0.620—×0.9859.60%
HBP% /PA4.29%—×0.720—×0.9853.04%
Singles /BIP32.61%÷1.000×0.820—×0.98526.34%
Doubles /BIP6.52%÷1.000×0.720—×0.9854.63%
Triples /BIP2.17%÷1.000×0.720—×0.9851.54%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.780—×0.9850.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .404 → .298; ISO .089 → .064; BABIP .413 → .325. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKACL Royals · 212 PAwOBA .291 → .212 (−78)K% 18.4% → 26.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA18.40%÷0.985×1.440——26.91%
BB% (unintentional) /PA6.60%÷0.971×0.620—×0.9954.20%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.720—×0.9950.00%
Singles /BIP18.18%÷1.019×0.820×1.026×0.99514.93%
Doubles /BIP6.49%÷0.975×0.720×1.026×0.9954.89%
Triples /BIP2.60%÷1.070×0.720×1.026×0.9951.78%
Home runs /BIP2.60%÷0.939×0.780—×0.9952.15%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 104, 2B 95, 3B 114, K 97, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.026.

Result: wOBA .291 → .212; ISO .155 → .113; BABIP .278 → .219. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 DSLDSL Royals Ventura · 175 PAwOBA .338 → .220 (−118)K% 17.7% → 21.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA17.71%÷1.000×1.220——21.62%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.43%÷1.022×0.700—×0.9957.79%
HBP% /PA1.71%—×0.700—×0.9951.19%
Singles /BIP22.03%÷1.014×0.680×0.993×0.99514.60%
Doubles /BIP8.47%÷0.982×0.600×0.993×0.9955.12%
Triples /BIP1.69%÷1.012×0.600×0.993×0.9950.99%
Home runs /BIP1.69%÷0.994×0.470—×0.9950.80%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 103, 2B 96, 3B 102, K 100, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 18.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.993.

Result: wOBA .338 → .220; ISO .134 → .077; BABIP .322 → .205. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 DSLDSL Royals Blue · 174 PAwOBA .394 → .253 (−141)K% 23.0% → 28.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA22.99%÷0.977×1.220——28.71%
BB% (unintentional) /PA13.22%÷1.010×0.700—×1.0089.23%
HBP% /PA2.30%—×0.700—×1.0081.62%
Singles /BIP28.57%÷0.990×0.680×0.997×1.00819.73%
Doubles /BIP6.67%÷1.078×0.600×0.997×1.0083.73%
Triples /BIP4.76%÷1.149×0.600×0.997×1.0082.50%
Home runs /BIP2.86%÷0.903×0.470—×1.0081.50%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 81, 1B 98, 2B 116, 3B 130, K 95, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.997.

Result: wOBA .394 → .253; ISO .179 → .096; BABIP .404 → .259. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).