Kai Murphy
OF San Antonio Missions| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 23 | A+SD | 482 | .235/.343/.353 | 6 | 10 | 56 | — | .196/.274/.287 |
| 2025 | 24 | AASD | 379 | .219/.325/.262 | 1 | 8 | 53 | — | .211/.291/.249 |
| 2026 | 25 | AA/INTL2 orgs | 201 | .212/.288/.291 | 3 | 9 | 37 | — | .178/.236/.231 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 26 | MLBSD | 2 | .201/.271/.266 | 0 | 0 | 56 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ27% MLB | 27 | MLBSD | 36 | .202/.272/.270 | 0 | 1 | 58 | -0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 25
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 21 | A | Lake Elsinore Storm | — | 33 | 30 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 200 | 273 | 267 | 539 | 67 | 231 | 12 | 9 | 251 | 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | ROK | ACL Padres | — | 17 | 14 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 357 | 471 | 429 | 899 | 71 | 556 | 29 | 18 | 412 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 103 | 93 | 19 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 29 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 204 | 260 | 280 | 540 | 75 | 277 | 28 | 6 | 241 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A | Lake Elsinore Storm | — | 268 | 237 | 68 | 15 | 1 | 6 | 24 | 67 | 4 | 11 | 5 | 287 | 362 | 435 | 797 | 148 | 376 | 25 | 9 | 353 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 482 | 408 | 96 | 24 | 3 | 6 | 61 | 107 | 6 | 10 | 7 | 235 | 343 | 353 | 696 | 118 | 303 | 22 | 13 | 316 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA | San Antonio Missions | — | 379 | 324 | 71 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 43 | 69 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 219 | 325 | 262 | 588 | 43 | 271 | 18 | 11 | 278 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AA | San Antonio Missions | — | 183 | 165 | 34 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 37 | 3 | 9 | 3 | 206 | 280 | 285 | 565 | 79 | 248 | 20 | 8 | 261 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | INTL | Aguilas de Mexicali | — | 18 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 286 | 375 | 357 | 732 | 71 | 364 | 17 | 6 | 302 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 21 | A MLE | Lake Elsinore Storm | — | 33 | 31 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 161 | 212 | 194 | 406 | 32 | 196 | 18 | 6 | 192 | 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | ROK MLE | ACL Padres | — | 17 | 15 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 267 | 353 | 333 | 686 | 67 | 445 | 41 | 12 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ MLE | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 103 | 95 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 36 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 179 | 220 | 242 | 462 | 63 | 253 | 35 | 4 | 201 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A MLE | Lake Elsinore Storm | — | 268 | 245 | 57 | 11 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 96 | 4 | 11 | 5 | 233 | 291 | 335 | 625 | 102 | 347 | 36 | 6 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ MLE | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 482 | 429 | 84 | 20 | 2 | 5 | 40 | 138 | 6 | 10 | 7 | 196 | 274 | 287 | 560 | 91 | 269 | 29 | 8 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA MLE | San Antonio Missions | — | 379 | 337 | 71 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 30 | 80 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 211 | 291 | 249 | 540 | 39 | 265 | 21 | 8 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AA MLE | San Antonio Missions | — | 183 | 169 | 30 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 45 | 3 | 9 | 3 | 178 | 236 | 231 | 467 | 53 | 232 | 25 | 5 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 50 | 46 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 174 | 240 | 217 | 457 | 43 | 242 | 26 | 8 | 217 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 50 | 44 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 250 | 340 | 318 | 658 | 68 | 314 | 18 | 12 | 306 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 371 | 340 | 73 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 132 | 5 | 12 | 5 | 215 | 268 | 303 | 571 | 88 | 330 | 36 | 5 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 371 | 330 | 87 | 19 | 1 | 7 | 30 | 96 | 5 | 12 | 5 | 264 | 334 | 391 | 725 | 127 | 348 | 26 | 8 | 322 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ MLE | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 482 | 429 | 84 | 20 | 2 | 5 | 40 | 138 | 6 | 10 | 7 | 196 | 274 | 287 | 560 | 91 | 274 | 29 | 8 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ RAW | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 482 | 408 | 96 | 24 | 3 | 6 | 61 | 107 | 6 | 10 | 7 | 235 | 343 | 353 | 696 | 118 | 303 | 22 | 13 | 316 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA MLE | San Antonio Missions | — | 379 | 337 | 71 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 30 | 80 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 211 | 291 | 249 | 540 | 39 | 269 | 21 | 8 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA RAW | San Antonio Missions | — | 379 | 324 | 71 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 43 | 69 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 219 | 325 | 262 | 588 | 43 | 271 | 18 | 11 | 278 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 201 | 183 | 35 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 50 | 4 | 9 | 3 | 191 | 253 | 262 | 515 | 71 | 246 | 25 | 5 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 201 | 179 | 38 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 40 | 4 | 9 | 3 | 212 | 288 | 291 | 578 | 78 | 257 | 20 | 7 | 265 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 50 | 46 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 174 | 240 | 217 | 457 | 43 | 281 | 26 | 8 | 217 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 371 | 343 | 73 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 132 | 5 | 12 | 5 | 213 | 268 | 300 | 569 | 87 | 321 | 36 | 5 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ MLE | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 482 | 433 | 84 | 20 | 2 | 5 | 40 | 138 | 6 | 10 | 7 | 194 | 274 | 284 | 558 | 90 | 269 | 29 | 8 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA MLE | San Antonio Missions | — | 379 | 338 | 71 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 30 | 80 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 210 | 291 | 249 | 539 | 38 | 265 | 21 | 8 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 201 | 184 | 35 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 50 | 4 | 9 | 3 | 190 | 253 | 261 | 513 | 71 | 232 | 25 | 5 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 23 | A+ MLE | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 482 | 433 | 84 | 20 | 2 | 5 | 40 | 138 | 6 | 10 | 7 | 194 | 274 | 284 | 558 | 90 | 269 | 29 | 8 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA MLE | San Antonio Missions | — | 379 | 338 | 71 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 30 | 80 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 210 | 291 | 249 | 539 | 38 | 265 | 21 | 8 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 201 | 184 | 35 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 50 | 4 | 9 | 3 | 190 | 253 | 261 | 513 | 71 | 232 | 25 | 5 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB MLE | SD | 2% | 233 | 211 | 43 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 56 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 204 | 273 | 271 | 544 | 67 | 266 | 24 | 7 | 251 | 56 | -12 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +5 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB CTX | SD | 2% | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 201 | 271 | 266 | 536 | 65 | 261 | 0 | 0 | 248 | 56 | -0 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 27 | MLB MLE | SD | 27% | 134 | 121 | 24 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 32 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 205 | 275 | 275 | 550 | 70 | 266 | 24 | 7 | 253 | 58 | -7 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +3 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB CTX | SD | 27% | 36 | 32 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 202 | 272 | 270 | 542 | 68 | 262 | 25 | 8 | 250 | 58 | -2 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +1 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 36 | 32 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 188 | 278 | 219 | 497 | 31 | 261 | 25 | 8 | 250 | 52 | -2 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +1 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 578 | 108 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 54 | 162 | 18 | 18 | 0 | 187 | 277 | 218 | 495 | 31 | 260 | 25 | 8 | 250 | 52 | -33 | +4 | +0 | -4 | +14 | -1.9 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1715 | 1546 | 313 | 54 | 4 | 16 | 122 | 468 | 26 | 47 | 24 | 202 | 272 | 274 | 546 | 71 | 277 | 27 | 7 | 245 | 52 | -12 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +5 | -0.8 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 586 | 119 | 20 | 2 | 6 | 46 | 177 | 10 | 18 | 9 | 203 | 273 | 275 | 547 | 72 | 278 | 27 | 7 | 245 | 52 | -33 | +1 | +0 | -4 | +14 | -2.3 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AASan Antonio Missions · 183 PAwOBA .255 → .216 (−38)K% 20.2% → 24.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.22% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 24.67% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.65% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 5.29% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.64% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.988 | 1.41% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.09% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×1.046 | ×0.988 | 20.05% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.12% | ÷1.000 | ×0.840 | ×1.046 | ×0.988 | 2.71% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.940 | ×1.046 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.34% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 1.85% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.046.
Result: wOBA .255 → .216; ISO .079 → .063; BABIP .248 → .232. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AASan Antonio Missions · 379 PAwOBA .275 → .247 (−27)K% 18.2% → 21.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.21% | ÷1.054 | ×1.220 | — | — | 21.08% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.35% | ÷1.020 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 7.77% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.11% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.998 | 1.83% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.53% | ÷0.964 | ×0.920 | ×1.037 | ×0.998 | 23.25% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.53% | ÷0.963 | ×0.840 | ×1.037 | ×0.998 | 3.19% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.39% | ÷1.036 | ×0.940 | ×1.037 | ×0.998 | 0.37% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.39% | ÷0.950 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 0.33% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 93, 2B 93, 3B 107, K 111, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.037.
Result: wOBA .275 → .247; ISO .043 → .040; BABIP .271 → .265. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Fort Wayne TinCaps · 482 PAwOBA .309 → .251 (−57)K% 22.2% → 28.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.20% | ÷0.982 | ×1.270 | — | — | 28.71% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.45% | ÷1.043 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.988 | 8.38% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.24% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.988 | 0.97% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.93% | ÷0.997 | ×0.920 | ×1.009 | ×0.988 | 19.25% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.97% | ÷0.973 | ×0.810 | ×1.009 | ×0.988 | 6.62% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.00% | ÷1.082 | ×0.850 | ×1.009 | ×0.988 | 0.78% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.99% | ÷0.916 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 1.72% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 99, 2B 95, 3B 116, K 96, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.009.
Result: wOBA .309 → .251; ISO .118 → .098; BABIP .303 → .269. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ALake Elsinore Storm · 268 PAwOBA .345 → .268 (−78)K% 25.0% → 35.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.00% | ÷0.953 | ×1.360 | — | — | 35.66% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.96% | ÷1.032 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.990 | 5.93% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.49% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.990 | 1.15% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.06% | ÷0.951 | ×0.920 | ×1.024 | ×0.990 | 26.53% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.82% | ÷1.065 | ×0.830 | ×1.024 | ×0.990 | 6.97% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.59% | ÷0.900 | ×0.910 | ×1.024 | ×0.990 | 0.60% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.53% | ÷1.121 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.990 | 2.49% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 124, 1B 90, 2B 113, 3B 80, K 91, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.024.
Result: wOBA .345 → .268; ISO .148 → .101; BABIP .376 → .347. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Fort Wayne TinCaps · 103 PAwOBA .239 → .201 (−38)K% 28.2% → 35.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.16% | ÷1.014 | ×1.270 | — | — | 35.27% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.83% | ÷0.983 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 4.20% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.97% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.998 | 0.77% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.88% | ÷0.956 | ×0.920 | ×1.008 | ×0.998 | 21.18% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.25% | ÷1.118 | ×0.810 | ×1.008 | ×0.998 | 4.56% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×1.008 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.56% | ÷0.848 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 1.47% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 70, 1B 91, 2B 124, 3B 130, K 103, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.008.
Result: wOBA .239 → .201; ISO .075 → .059; BABIP .277 → .253. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ALake Elsinore Storm · 33 PAwOBA .245 → .192 (−53)K% 12.1% → 17.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.12% | ÷0.968 | ×1.360 | — | — | 17.04% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.09% | ÷0.992 | ×0.690 | — | — | 6.33% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.38% | ÷1.020 | ×0.920 | — | — | 13.88% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.69% | ÷1.115 | ×0.830 | — | — | 5.73% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | — | — | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.938 | ×0.800 | — | — | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 104, 2B 123, 3B 100, K 94, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .245 → .192; ISO .067 → .048; BABIP .231 → .196. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ROKACL Padres · 17 PAwOBA .402 → .267 (−135)K% 29.4% → 43.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.41% | ÷0.984 | ×1.440 | — | — | 43.05% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.65% | ÷1.015 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.975 | 10.51% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 44.44% | ÷0.965 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.975 | 36.81% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.11% | ÷1.016 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 7.68% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.081 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.975 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 93, 2B 103, 3B 100, K 97, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 19.5 → −2.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .402 → .267; ISO .071 → .043; BABIP .556 → .445. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .