Shane Opitz
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 24 | AATOR | 258 | .217/.283/.300 | 2 | 7 | 39 | — | .203/.247/.266 |
| 2017 | 25 | AAATOR | 274 | .252/.311/.333 | 1 | 6 | 62 | — | .238/.281/.313 |
| 2018 | 26 | AAAColorado Spri… | 170 | .252/.345/.374 | 2 | 5 | 54 | — | .197/.274/.276 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2010 | 18 | ROK | GCL Blue Jays | — | 36 | 33 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 303 | 361 | 455 | 816 | 152 | 357 | 14 | 6 | 362 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 20 | A | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 357 | 315 | 71 | 19 | 2 | 2 | 25 | 65 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 225 | 282 | 317 | 599 | 92 | 275 | 18 | 7 | 262 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 21 | A+ | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 209 | 188 | 58 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 25 | 0 | 10 | 5 | 309 | 366 | 399 | 765 | 90 | 344 | 12 | 8 | 339 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 21 | A | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 59 | 54 | 20 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 370 | 424 | 500 | 924 | 130 | 488 | 22 | 8 | 410 | 102 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 21 | INTL | Canberra Cavalry | — | 119 | 111 | 29 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 261 | 305 | 333 | 638 | 72 | 289 | 11 | 5 | 288 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 22 | A+ | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 111 | 105 | 32 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 18 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 305 | 342 | 333 | 676 | 29 | 368 | 16 | 5 | 308 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 23 | AA | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | — | 391 | 358 | 86 | 15 | 5 | 3 | 22 | 49 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 240 | 284 | 335 | 619 | 95 | 269 | 13 | 6 | 271 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 24 | AA | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | — | 258 | 230 | 50 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 41 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 217 | 283 | 300 | 583 | 83 | 253 | 16 | 8 | 260 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 25 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | — | 274 | 246 | 62 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 37 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 252 | 311 | 333 | 644 | 81 | 288 | 14 | 7 | 286 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 26 | AAA | Colorado Springs Sky Sox | — | 170 | 147 | 37 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 20 | 33 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 252 | 345 | 374 | 719 | 122 | 310 | 19 | 12 | 323 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2010 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Blue Jays | — | 36 | 34 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 235 | 278 | 353 | 631 | 118 | 285 | 19 | 3 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 20 | A MLE | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 357 | 326 | 64 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 94 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 196 | 238 | 276 | 514 | 80 | 250 | 26 | 5 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 21 | A+ MLE | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 209 | 192 | 55 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 35 | 0 | 10 | 5 | 286 | 332 | 375 | 707 | 89 | 328 | 17 | 6 | 301 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 21 | A MLE | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 59 | 56 | 17 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 304 | 339 | 411 | 750 | 107 | 436 | 31 | 5 | 319 | 102 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 22 | A+ MLE | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 111 | 106 | 30 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 25 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 283 | 315 | 311 | 627 | 28 | 365 | 23 | 5 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 23 | AA MLE | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | — | 391 | 365 | 85 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 15 | 62 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 233 | 263 | 307 | 570 | 74 | 267 | 16 | 4 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 24 | AA MLE | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | — | 258 | 237 | 48 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 52 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 203 | 247 | 266 | 513 | 63 | 242 | 20 | 5 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 25 | AAA MLE | Buffalo Bisons | — | 274 | 252 | 60 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 47 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 238 | 281 | 313 | 594 | 75 | 274 | 17 | 4 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 26 | AAA MLE | Colorado Springs Sky Sox | — | 170 | 152 | 30 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 46 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 197 | 274 | 276 | 550 | 79 | 266 | 27 | 9 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Blue Jays | — | 36 | 34 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 235 | 278 | 353 | 631 | 118 | 296 | 19 | 3 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 18 | ROK RAW | GCL Blue Jays | — | 36 | 33 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 303 | 361 | 455 | 816 | 152 | 357 | 14 | 6 | 362 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 20 | A MLE | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 357 | 326 | 64 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 94 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 196 | 238 | 276 | 514 | 80 | 266 | 26 | 5 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 20 | A RAW | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 357 | 315 | 71 | 19 | 2 | 2 | 25 | 65 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 225 | 282 | 317 | 599 | 92 | 275 | 18 | 7 | 262 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 21 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 387 | 358 | 102 | 21 | 1 | 2 | 23 | 77 | 1 | 12 | 7 | 285 | 330 | 366 | 696 | 81 | 356 | 20 | 6 | 305 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 21 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 387 | 353 | 107 | 21 | 1 | 3 | 28 | 51 | 1 | 12 | 7 | 303 | 356 | 394 | 750 | 91 | 346 | 13 | 7 | 334 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 22 | A+ MLE | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 111 | 106 | 30 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 25 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 283 | 315 | 311 | 627 | 28 | 370 | 23 | 5 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 22 | A+ RAW | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 111 | 105 | 32 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 18 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 305 | 342 | 333 | 676 | 29 | 368 | 16 | 5 | 308 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 23 | AA MLE | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | — | 391 | 365 | 85 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 15 | 62 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 233 | 263 | 307 | 570 | 74 | 274 | 16 | 4 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 23 | AA RAW | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | — | 391 | 358 | 86 | 15 | 5 | 3 | 22 | 49 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 240 | 284 | 335 | 619 | 95 | 269 | 13 | 6 | 271 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 24 | AA MLE | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | — | 258 | 237 | 48 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 52 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 203 | 247 | 266 | 513 | 63 | 251 | 20 | 5 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 24 | AA RAW | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | — | 258 | 230 | 50 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 41 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 217 | 283 | 300 | 583 | 83 | 253 | 16 | 8 | 260 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 25 | AAA MLE | Buffalo Bisons | — | 274 | 252 | 60 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 47 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 238 | 281 | 313 | 594 | 75 | 284 | 17 | 4 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 25 | AAA RAW | Buffalo Bisons | — | 274 | 246 | 62 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 37 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 252 | 311 | 333 | 644 | 81 | 288 | 14 | 7 | 286 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 26 | AAA MLE | Colorado Springs Sky Sox | — | 170 | 152 | 30 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 46 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 197 | 274 | 276 | 550 | 79 | 274 | 27 | 9 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 26 | AAA RAW | Colorado Springs Sky Sox | — | 170 | 147 | 37 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 20 | 33 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 252 | 345 | 374 | 719 | 122 | 310 | 19 | 12 | 323 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Blue Jays | — | 36 | 34 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 235 | 278 | 353 | 631 | 118 | 285 | 19 | 3 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 20 | A MLE | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 357 | 336 | 64 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 94 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 190 | 238 | 268 | 506 | 77 | 250 | 26 | 5 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 21 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 387 | 360 | 102 | 21 | 1 | 2 | 23 | 77 | 1 | 12 | 7 | 283 | 330 | 364 | 694 | 81 | 352 | 20 | 6 | 305 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 22 | A+ MLE | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 111 | 105 | 30 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 25 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 286 | 315 | 314 | 630 | 29 | 365 | 23 | 5 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 23 | AA MLE | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | — | 391 | 373 | 85 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 15 | 62 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 228 | 263 | 300 | 563 | 72 | 267 | 16 | 4 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 24 | AA MLE | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | — | 258 | 242 | 48 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 52 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 198 | 247 | 260 | 507 | 62 | 242 | 20 | 5 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 25 | AAA MLE | Buffalo Bisons | — | 274 | 257 | 60 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 47 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 233 | 281 | 307 | 588 | 74 | 274 | 17 | 4 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 26 | AAA MLE | Colorado Springs Sky Sox | — | 170 | 152 | 30 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 46 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 197 | 274 | 276 | 550 | 79 | 266 | 27 | 9 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1984 | 1830 | 427 | 82 | 13 | 9 | 101 | 410 | 8 | 41 | 19 | 233 | 276 | 307 | 584 | 74 | 293 | 21 | 5 | 254 | 58 | -99 | +1 | +0 | +21 | +43 | -3.5 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 600 | 140 | 27 | 4 | 3 | 33 | 134 | 3 | 13 | 6 | 233 | 277 | 307 | 584 | 73 | 293 | 21 | 5 | 254 | 58 | -33 | +0 | +0 | +7 | +14 | -1.1 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2018 AAAColorado Springs Sky Sox · 170 PAwOBA .317 → .248 (−69)K% 19.4% → 27.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.41% | ÷0.925 | ×1.290 | — | — | 27.06% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.76% | ÷0.985 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.018 | 8.63% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.59% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.018 | 0.59% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.81% | ÷1.014 | ×0.900 | ×0.991 | ×1.018 | 20.41% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.26% | ÷1.014 | ×0.810 | ×0.991 | ×1.018 | 4.24% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.63% | ÷1.150 | ×0.810 | ×0.991 | ×1.018 | 1.87% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.75% | ÷1.124 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.018 | 1.24% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 125, 1B 103, 2B 103, 3B 130, K 85, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.991.
Result: wOBA .317 → .248; ISO .122 → .086; BABIP .310 → .266. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AAABuffalo Bisons · 274 PAwOBA .282 → .260 (−21)K% 13.5% → 17.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.50% | ÷0.950 | ×1.200 | — | — | 17.05% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.20% | ÷1.027 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 4.30% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.09% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 1.06% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.53% | ÷1.021 | ×0.930 | ×1.016 | ×1.033 | 20.59% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.18% | ÷0.940 | ×0.830 | ×1.016 | ×1.033 | 6.65% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.48% | ÷0.961 | ×0.970 | ×1.016 | ×1.033 | 0.51% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.48% | ÷0.903 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.033 | 0.46% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 104, 2B 88, 3B 92, K 90, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.016.
Result: wOBA .282 → .260; ISO .081 → .078; BABIP .288 → .274. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats · 258 PAwOBA .257 → .226 (−31)K% 15.9% → 20.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.89% | ÷0.969 | ×1.220 | — | — | 20.01% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.75% | ÷1.079 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 5.09% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.39% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 0.33% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.05% | ÷0.995 | ×0.970 | ×1.002 | ×1.012 | 18.83% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.82% | ÷1.000 | ×0.860 | ×1.002 | ×1.012 | 5.07% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.53% | ÷1.031 | ×0.950 | ×1.002 | ×1.012 | 0.49% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.06% | ÷1.292 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 0.65% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 158, 1B 99, 2B 100, 3B 106, K 94, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.002.
Result: wOBA .257 → .226; ISO .083 → .067; BABIP .253 → .242. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats · 391 PAwOBA .264 → .247 (−17)K% 12.5% → 15.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.53% | ÷0.960 | ×1.220 | — | — | 15.93% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.37% | ÷1.026 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 3.76% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.39% | ÷0.996 | ×0.970 | ×1.034 | ×1.027 | 21.07% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.85% | ÷1.064 | ×0.860 | ×1.034 | ×1.027 | 4.17% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.62% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | ×1.034 | ×1.027 | 1.42% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.97% | ÷1.130 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.027 | 0.69% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 126, 1B 99, 2B 113, 3B 130, K 92, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.034.
Result: wOBA .264 → .247; ISO .095 → .080; BABIP .269 → .267. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 A+Dunedin Blue Jays · 111 PAwOBA .300 → .272 (−28)K% 16.2% → 22.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.22% | ÷1.016 | ×1.420 | — | — | 22.66% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.41% | ÷0.979 | ×0.750 | — | ×1.012 | 4.19% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 34.48% | ÷0.982 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×1.012 | 34.32% |
| Doubles /BIP | 1.15% | ÷1.083 | ×0.960 | ×1.050 | ×1.012 | 1.08% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.15% | ÷0.900 | ×0.810 | ×1.050 | ×1.012 | 1.10% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.309 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 162, 1B 96, 2B 117, 3B 80, K 103, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .300 → .272; ISO .029 → .025; BABIP .368 → .365. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 A+Dunedin Blue Jays · 209 PAwOBA .333 → .301 (−32)K% 12.0% → 16.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 11.96% | ÷1.007 | ×1.420 | — | — | 16.86% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.13% | ÷1.032 | ×0.750 | — | ×1.027 | 6.07% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.61% | ÷1.025 | ×0.920 | ×1.029 | ×1.027 | 26.17% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.75% | ÷1.023 | ×0.960 | ×1.029 | ×1.027 | 6.69% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.810 | ×1.029 | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.23% | ÷1.160 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.027 | 0.96% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 132, 1B 105, 2B 105, 3B 80, K 101, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.029.
Result: wOBA .333 → .301; ISO .090 → .082; BABIP .344 → .328. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 ALansing Lugnuts · 59 PAwOBA .399 → .319 (−80)K% 22.0% → 30.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.03% | ÷0.998 | ×1.360 | — | — | 30.01% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.47% | ÷1.049 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 5.66% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 34.15% | ÷1.020 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.015 | 31.26% |
| Doubles /BIP | 12.20% | ÷0.997 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.015 | 10.31% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.44% | ÷1.112 | ×0.910 | — | ×1.015 | 2.03% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.026 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 104, 2B 99, 3B 122, K 100, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .399 → .319; ISO .130 → .101; BABIP .488 → .436. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2012 ALansing Lugnuts · 357 PAwOBA .257 → .218 (−39)K% 18.2% → 26.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.21% | ÷0.946 | ×1.360 | — | — | 26.19% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.00% | ÷1.057 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 4.71% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.28% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 0.23% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.20% | ÷1.039 | ×0.920 | ×1.025 | ×1.030 | 17.94% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.60% | ÷1.028 | ×0.830 | ×1.025 | ×1.030 | 6.48% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.80% | ÷1.051 | ×0.910 | ×1.025 | ×1.030 | 0.73% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.80% | ÷0.936 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 0.70% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 87, 1B 108, 2B 106, 3B 110, K 89, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.025.
Result: wOBA .257 → .218; ISO .092 → .078; BABIP .275 → .250. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .