Conner O'Neal — OGILVIE

Conner O'NealC Ontario Tower Buzzers

Age 23 L/R 6'3" / 219 lbs A HR -6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 ROS PROJECTION199 act + 132 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†62

AVG/OBP/SLG.192 / .266 / .301

PA132

HR3

K%35

BB%8

BABIP283

ISO109

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	23	A	LAD	—	199	176	30	5	0	6	17	86	5	1	0	170	263	301	564	131	282	43	9	246	46	-12	+0	+0	+4	+6	-0.3
YTD	23	A	LAD	—	199	169	39	7	0	7	24	64	5	1	0	231	343	396	740	166	323	32	12	335	114	+3	+0	+0	+4	+6	1.3
ROS	23	A	LAD	0%	132	119	23	4	0	3	10	47	2	1	0	192	266	301	567	109	288	35	8	267	62	-6	+0	+0	+2	+4	0.1
ROS	23	MLB	LAD	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		284	—	—	252	51	—	—	+0	+0	—	—
FULL	23	A	LAD	—	199	177	30	5	0	6	17	86	5	1	0	169	263	299	562	130	279	43	9	246	46	-12	+0	+0	+4	+6	-0.3
TOT	23	A	LAD	—	331	295	53	9	0	9	27	133	7	2	0	179	264	301	565	122	283	40	8	254	53	-18	+0	+0	+6	+9	-0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	24	MLB	LAD	38%	481	433	87	15	2	12	38	165	7	3	1	201	276	328	604	127	289	34	8	273	67	-18	+0	+0	+9	+14	0.5
2028	25	MLB	LAD	55%	520	466	95	17	2	13	42	174	7	4	1	204	280	333	612	129	289	33	8	278	71	-17	+0	+0	+9	+15	0.8
2029	26	MLB	LAD	64%	520	466	97	17	2	14	42	171	7	4	1	208	283	343	627	135	289	33	8	281	73	-16	+0	+0	+9	+15	0.9
2030	27	MLB	LAD	66%	520	465	97	17	2	14	43	170	7	4	1	209	285	344	630	135	289	33	8	282	74	-15	+0	+0	+9	+15	1.0
2027	24	MLB	LAD	38%	181	162	32	6	1	4	14	62	3	1	0	198	274	321	595	123	285	34	8	259	57	-9	+0	+0	+3	+5	-0.0
2028	25	MLB	LAD	55%	288	259	52	9	1	7	23	96	4	2	1	201	276	324	601	124	285	33	8	264	61	-13	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.0
2029	26	MLB	LAD	64%	331	296	60	11	1	8	27	109	5	2	1	203	280	328	608	125	285	33	8	267	63	-14	+0	+0	+6	+9	0.1
2030	27	MLB	LAD	66%	342	306	62	11	1	9	28	112	5	2	1	203	280	333	614	131	285	33	8	268	64	-14	+0	+0	+6	+10	0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	1142	1024	206	37	4	28	92	379	17	7	3	201	278	327	605	126	286	33	8	266	61	-50	+0	+0	+20	+32	0.3
/ 162G	—			—	650	583	117	21	2	16	52	216	10	4	2	201	278	326	603	125	285	33	8	266	61	-28	+0	+0	+12	+18	0.2
Career	—			—	2173	1949	399	70	8	56	175	727	30	16	4	205	280	335	615	130	291	33	8	278	71	-71	+2	+0	+39	+62	3.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	583	119	21	2	17	52	217	9	5	1	204	280	334	614	130	289	33	8	278	71	-21	+1	+0	+12	+18	1.0

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	11	4,009	134	6	234	301	398	+72	+7	16.9	15.7
#1John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	/162	664	22	1	234	301	398	+11.9	+1.2	2.8	pk7: 14
#2Derek Norrislast yr '17 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,195 PA	6	2,195	63	26	230	304	380	+39	+50	13.7	13.7
	/162	664	19	8	230	304	380	+11.9	+15.1	4.1	pk7: 14
#3Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	7	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
	/162	664	15	8	238	305	374	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#4Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	8	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
	/162	664	20	13	221	297	378	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#5Mike Mathenylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,830 PA	7	2,830	45	2	244	301	351	+21	+31	7.2	7.2
	/162	664	11	0	244	301	351	+4.9	+7.2	1.7	pk7: 7
#6J.P. Arencibialast yr '15 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,650 PA	5	1,650	78	2	213	260	414	+29	-4	4.2	4.2
	/162	664	31	1	213	260	414	+11.9	-1.7	1.7	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	3	1,462	37	11	207	278	337	+26	+12	2.1	2.1
	/162	664	17	5	207	278	337	+11.9	+5.5	1.0	pk7: 2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Conner O'Neal (OGILVIE)	23	—	—	—	—	179/264/301	122	283	9	2	40%	8%	53	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Adrian Del Castillo 2023 · A	23	36→43	44→50	52→40	42	187/249/306	120	252	12	7	30%	7%	51	-1.7	207/278/346	139	286	15	3	31%	8%	73	-0.1	222/289/402	180	281	22	1	28%	8%	91	+0.6
✕Matt Wallach 2009 · A	23	40	48→50	46→40	39	206/262/350	144	278	15	3	31%	6%	68	-0.5	213/271/331	118	263	12	3	23%	6%	66	-0.6	215/288/338	123	247	15	3	19%	7%	76	+0.0
✕Carlos Soto 2022 · A	23	40	46→50	45→30	47	200/276/328	128	267	13	3	29%	9%	68	-0.5	198/272/313	115	288	10	5	32%	9%	63	-0.9	146/236/243	98	222	7	0	35%	10%	29	-1.0
✕Christopher Familia 2023 · A	23	39	45→55	47→45	45	200/277/324	124	256	13	8	27%	7%	68	-0.5	216/273/378	162	292	20	4	32%	6%	80	+0.4	212/264/396	184	278	26	0	33%	5%	76	+0.0
✕Mark Fleury 2011 · A	23	39	46→45	48→45	41	202/258/331	130	269	13	4	30%	6%	61	-1.0	203/275/301	98	305	7	6	33%	8%	60	-1.0	189/278/266	77	293	4	6	33%	10%	51	-0.6
✕Bryan Holaday 2011 · A	23	41	44→45	47→40	42	201/283/317	116	296	12	5	34%	8%	69	-0.4	206/259/296	90	269	8	6	25%	5%	51	-1.7	223/289/353	130	256	14	2	19%	7%	76	+0.0
✕Andrew Susac 2013 · A	23	42→40	44→50	46→30	45	208/280/323	115	292	11	4	31%	8%	68	-0.5	218/291/365	147	292	17	3	30%	8%	84	+0.6	217/295/377	160	283	19	1	29%	9%	86	+0.4
✕Isan Díaz 2018 · A	22	39→42	46→55	45	43	196/268/326	129	288	14	8	35%	8%	64	-0.8	209/275/354	145	294	16	8	32%	8%	74	-0.1	208/287/373	164	275	21	5	31%	9%	79	+0.2
✕César Salazar 2019 · A	23	44→40	48→45	49→45	39	218/280/356	138	314	17	8	35%	6%	77	+0.1	211/266/317	106	265	11	8	24%	5%	60	-1.0	202/308/314	111	241	11	6	20%	9%	77	+0.1
✕Nick Hutchins 2019 · A	23	43	45→50	47→40	39	213/270/345	132	297	12	3	31%	6%	69	-0.4	207/248/306	99	290	8	5	30%	4%	49	-1.8	193/221/277	84	268	7	4	30%	2%	27	-1.6
✕Jose Brizuela 2016 · A	23	41→40	43→50	50→45	46	204/274/320	117	274	10	7	28%	8%	65	-0.7	211/268/334	123	297	13	5	32%	7%	66	-0.6	195/247/325	130	268	17	1	33%	6%	52	-0.7
✕Jason Lopez 2021 · A	23	40	44→55	46→45	37	202/247/323	121	282	12	7	32%	5%	53	-1.5	194/256/297	103	298	10	10	36%	7%	50	-1.7	163/228/254	91	247	10	10	36%	8%	25	-0.9
✕Sean Coughlin 2008 · A	23	40→37	41→50	43→30	41	194/262/294	99	288	9	3	34%	7%	53	-1.5	213/283/342	129	261	14	2	23%	8%	75	-0.0	209/281/339	130	248	15	1	22%	8%	73	-0.1
✕Joe DeCarlo 2017 · A	23	37	46→55	47→30	44	188/274/317	128	274	14	2	35%	9%	65	-0.7	199/274/344	145	282	17	3	34%	7%	72	-0.2	184/260/325	141	260	18	0	35%	7%	58	-0.5
✕Marcus Greene Jr. 2018 · A	23	39	47→50	42→40	41	202/261/332	130	266	15	4	30%	6%	63	-0.9	213/265/319	106	304	11	5	32%	6%	60	-1.0	194/242/263	69	292	8	0	35%	6%	31	-0.9
✕Kellin Deglan 2015 · A	23	36	48→50	47→40	38	192/251/330	138	270	16	3	34%	6%	58	-1.2	186/235/308	122	289	15	4	39%	5%	45	-2.1	174/241/288	114	278	13	2	40%	6%	40	-0.7
✕Aramis Garcia 2016 · A	23	42	47→55	45	42	214/272/341	128	283	16	3	30%	7%	69	-0.4	216/263/349	133	291	16	3	31%	5%	67	-0.5	215/256/360	145	286	19	0	31%	4%	64	-0.4
✕Rodolfo Durán 2021 · A	23	39	47→55	47→40	36	204/241/332	128	275	16	4	32%	4%	53	-1.5	201/241/337	136	264	15	4	29%	5%	54	-1.4	225/266/386	161	276	19	3	26%	4%	75	-0.0
✕Kevin Padlo 2019 · A	23	35→40	45→55	45→50	43	180/260/303	123	268	12	7	36%	9%	55	-1.4	206/284/377	171	294	20	9	35%	9%	85	+0.7	195/265/371	176	262	22	12	34%	8%	73	-0.1
✕Jeferson Morales 2023 · A	24	38→45	47→50	49→50	43	195/276/331	137	262	14	9	30%	7%	69	-0.4	215/289/349	134	277	13	9	26%	7%	79	+0.3	221/296/357	136	275	13	8	23%	7%	81	+0.2