Victor Duarte — OGILVIE

Victor Duarte P FCL Braves

Age 18 LHP 6'0" / 180 lbs ROK

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 14 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 105114vR 122

ERA4.66

FIP4.66

K%23.5%

BB%12.0%

K-BB%11.5%

ROS IP15

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 14 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Braves	3	0	2	13	3	4	0	0%	0.6	23.1%	30.8%	-7.7%	0.0%	27.00	5.05	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Braves	3	0	2	13	3	4	0	0%	0.6	23.1%	30.8%	-7.7%	0.0%	27.00	5.05	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Braves	3	0	2	13	3	4	0	0%	0.6	23.1%	30.8%	-7.7%	0.0%	27.00	6.70	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	18	ROK MLE	FCL Braves	9	4	21	100	36	16	1	44%	2.3	24.5%	20.0%	4.5%	1.4%	5.57	4.33	—
YTD	18	ROK MLE	FCL Braves	9	4	21	100	36	16	1	44%	2.3	24.5%	20.0%	4.5%	1.4%	5.57	4.33	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	18	ROK RAW	ATL	9	4	21	100	36	16	1	44%	2.3	36.0%	16.0%	20.0%	1.0%	5.57	2.64	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	19	MLB MLE	ATL	21	0	22	91	22	10	3	0%	1.0	23.9%	10.9%	12.9%	2.9%	4.53	4.46	+0.0
2027	19	MLB CTX	ATL	10	0	11	46	11	5	1	0%	1.1	23.9%	10.9%	12.9%	2.9%	4.53	4.46	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		10	0	11	45	11	5	1	0%	1.1	23.9%	10.9%	12.9%	2.9%	4.53	4.08	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	207	94	19	0%	1.1	23.9%	10.9%	12.9%	2.9%	4.53	4.08	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		12	4	23	113	27	24	1	33%	1.9	24.3%	21.2%	3.1%	1.2%	7.15	4.42	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		106	35	200	997	242	212	12	33%	1.9	24.3%	21.2%	3.1%	1.2%	7.15	4.42	+0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Victor Duarte (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.66	23.5%	12.0%	3.0%	—	4.46	23.9%	12.9%	22	-0.20	—	—	—
Adam Macko L 2019 · 3.88 FIP	18	SW	3.88	22.4%	14.6%	1.5%	.353	3.64	27.2%	12.4%	72	-0.24	3.40	403	79
Taylor Hearn L 2016 · 3.99 FIP	21	SW	3.99	26.1%	10.6%	3.2%	.347	4.01	22.3%	11.7%	236	+0.02	3.72	572	76
James Gonzalez L 2019 · 3.47 FIP	18	SP-	3.47	18.7%	7.8%	1.8%	.327	4.87	17.1%	7.0%	91	+1.40	2.31	487	73
Daniel Juarez L 2019 · 4.45 FIP	18	SU	4.45	24.9%	14.7%	2.9%	.389	4.24	26.5%	9.0%	68	-0.21	3.68	221	73
Josh Hendrickson L 2019 · 3.80 FIP	21	SW	3.80	21.8%	6.7%	3.1%	.250	4.67	19.3%	10.9%	110	+0.87	3.80	365	72
Alex Ayala Jr. L 2022 · 4.20 FIP	20	SW	4.20	20.7%	12.3%	2.3%	.271	5.99	13.6%	-3.1%	71	+1.79	4.20	128	72
Rigoberto Borbolla L 2019 · 3.86 FIP	17	SW	3.86	18.0%	11.7%	1.5%	.336	7.52	9.9%	-15.3%	14	+3.66	3.86	114	71
Jacob Lopez L 2018 · 3.66 FIP	20	SW	3.66	24.3%	7.9%	2.9%	.302	3.53	30.4%	21.6%	55	-0.13	3.49	534	70
Juan Diaz L 2017 · 3.96 FIP	19	SW	3.96	17.5%	14.4%	0.9%	.239	3.00	16.8%	9.8%	43	-0.96	3.00	100	70
Spencer Giesting L 2022 · 5.80 FIP	21	SP-	5.80	20.8%	16.6%	4.3%	.290	4.31	18.9%	7.9%	394	-1.49	3.58	457	70
Victor Cabreja L 2022 · 3.79 FIP	20	SW	3.79	17.0%	13.0%	0.9%	.348	4.42	11.2%	1.7%	146	+0.63	3.79	254	70
Adam Serwinowski L 2023 · 3.84 FIP	19	SP-	3.84	27.3%	18.7%	1.2%	.255	4.64	21.8%	8.3%	321	+0.80	3.84	349	69
Angel Roman L 2022 · 3.75 FIP	18	SU	3.75	21.4%	13.5%	1.4%	.286	3.82	13.2%	4.3%	169	+0.07	2.74	196	69
Miguel Pozo L 2021 · 3.73 FIP	19	SW	3.73	19.9%	15.2%	0.7%	.274	4.04	21.0%	5.8%	72	+0.31	3.54	110	69
Connor Curlis L 2018 · 3.49 FIP	21	SU	3.49	19.3%	10.8%	1.2%	.306	6.08	16.6%	4.6%	172	+2.59	3.49	309	68
Bodi Rascon L 2021 · 4.18 FIP	20	SP-	4.18	15.4%	8.8%	2.3%	.271	5.30	15.7%	3.9%	143	+1.12	4.18	218	68
Denny Bentley L 2018 · 4.85 FIP	20	SU	4.85	19.6%	10.3%	3.8%	.318	2.88	25.4%	10.3%	58	-1.97	2.88	175	67
Brayan Mendoza L 2022 · 5.29 FIP	18	SP-	5.29	17.9%	15.0%	3.3%	.273	3.89	17.1%	6.3%	221	-1.40	3.59	398	67
Juan Rojas L 2022 · 3.66 FIP	18	SP-	3.66	23.0%	7.6%	2.8%	.279	4.29	15.9%	2.4%	164	+0.63	2.74	282	67
Drew Harrington L 2016 · 4.18 FIP	21	SU	4.18	15.7%	9.6%	2.1%	.295	4.14	12.5%	5.4%	175	-0.04	3.17	190	67